4. 3
About Analysys Mason
Analysys Mason is a global specialist in
telecoms, technology and media
§ Analysys Mason is a global specialist
in telecoms, technology and media
(TMT), with offices on four continents
Analysys Masons’ s global presence and experience
§ We have had a major influence on
the industry for more
than 25 years:
- led the liberalisation of telecoms
across Europe and
Asia and mediated in policy issues
for operators and regulators
Assignments completed
Analysys Mason offices
- supported several hundred transactions and licence acquisition processes for
operators and financial institutions
- provided strategic and operational support to major operators in the roll-out
and expansion of businesses across the sector, enhancing enterprise value
§ With over 260 staff in 13 offices, we are respected worldwide for our
exceptional quality of work, independence and flexibility in responding to client
needs
5. 4
About Analysys Mason
We are uniquely positioned to provide
consulting and research to the TMT sectors
Consulting
§
§
Transaction
support
Our focus is exclusively on telecoms, media and
technology (TMT).
We support multi-billion dollar investments, advise
clients on regulatory matters, provide spectrum
valuation and auction support, and advise on
operational performance, business planning and
strategy.
§
We have developed rigorous methodologies that
deliver tangible results for clients around the world.
Strategy
and planning
Operational
consulting
Regulation
and policy
Procurement
Research
Consumer
services
Enterprise
services
Telecoms
software
Regional
markets
Network
technologies
§
We analyse, track and forecast the different
services accessed by consumers and enterprises,
as well as the software, infrastructure and
technology delivering those services.
§
Research clients benefit from regular and timely
intelligence in addition to direct access to our
team of expert analysts.
§
Our dedicated Custom Research team undertakes
specialised and bespoke projects for clients.
6. 5
About Analysys Mason
Our selected media project experience
Case study
Key capabilities
TV advertising in France
Understanding of the nature of the TV advertising ecosystem
European media group
growth plans
Competitive analysis, benchmarking and business planning for production,
channel aggregation and Internet expansion plans
Telecoms operator
football rights
Role of premium content, and ways of accessing this content for broadcast
Content rights business
and regulatory models
Evolution of media delivery technologies, for possible regulatory intervention
in the content market
South American
broadcaster DTT
strategy
Planning of genre and business model for a broadcaster moving to a digital
platform
Irish government DTT
planning
Leadership and planning of digital terrestrial television, involving all
stakeholders
Broadcaster online
content distribution
strategy
Costs and strategy for a broadcaster evaluating alternative platforms for
delivering content
Asian studio facilities
provider business plan
Comprehensive business planning (vision, services, clients, pricing,
marketing) for a state-of -the-art movie studio facility
9. 8
A framework for DSO
Stakeholder
Activities
Government
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Regulator
1. Decide on technology and standards
2. Implement licensing framework
3. Manage radio spectrum and coordination matters
Industry
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Develop DSO policy and legal framework
Establish and implement staged plan for ASO
Develop funding policy and establish fund
Establish principles for Help Scheme
Establish DSO/ASO Implementation Task Force
Develop consumer proposition
Establish DTT branding and conformance regime
Develop communications plan
Plan and deploy DTT network
Establish receiver specifications and costs
Source: Plum Consulting, Farnborough for GSMA
10. 9
Cost of DSO in other countries
Country
Purpose
Amount
Source
UK
Help scheme
€693m
BBC
Marketing activities
€230m
Digital UK
DSO total
€4.37b
Private + Public
Marketing activities
€255m
Government + PSBs
Help scheme
€142m
Government
Help scheme
€50 per qualifying HH
Government
ASO pilots
€55m
Government
DTT rollout
€33m
Government
DTT subsidy
€220m
Government
DSO projects
€75m
Government
DSO total
€12b
Public, private, viewers
Help scheme
No special budget
Government
Marketing activities
€5.5m
Government
France
Italy
Spain
Sweden
Source: Digitag
11. 10
Netherlands DSO
§ DTT platform launched in 2003 offering limited free‐to‐air
services from the PSB and extensive pay services from Digitenne
§ Focus on portable and mobile reception: DVB‐H services
launched in June 2008
§ ASO completed on a single day on 10 December 2006
§ Since then, DTT penetration has increased from 3‐5% to 12% of
the population – and strong growth continuing
Source: Digitag
12. 11
Sweden DSO
§ Launch of DTT services in 1999 offering a largely pay DTT
platform operated by Boxer
§ Attractive programme offer combined with competitive pricing has
allowed Boxer to effectively compete with other television
operators
§ Five phases to switch‐off starting in September 2005 and
completed in October 2007
§ 40% of viewers waiting until last month to purchase DTT
receivers
Source: Digitag
13. 12
France DSO
§ Launch of DTT services in March 2005 offering viewers 18 free‐
to-air and 9 pay‐DTT services
§ Combination of MPEG‐2 and MPEG‐4 AVC compression formats
§ Five HD/DTT services launched
§ France Télé Numérique set up to manage analogue switch‐off
§ Two DTT pilot projects completed in 2009
§ Analogue switch‐off began in February 2010 for completion by 30
November 2011
17. 16
What are the key risks for DSO, particularly
with a short ASO deadline?
§ Expensive receivers and low engagement from retailers to make
receivers widely available in the market
§ Cost of meeting roll-out and coverage obligations (e.g. when
country/broadcast specific features are required)
§ Poor communications campaigns, leading to confusion about
DTT benefits and how to obtain them – this can be particularly
damaging in remote communities with poor literacy skills
§ Insufficient co-ordination with adjacent countries increasing the
risk of cross border interference (shorter transition periods may
make this more complex)
§ Inadequate DTT network planning, which may cause delays to
network roll-out and switch-on schedules.
19. 18
Summary of relative impact and degree of complementarity of
linear and non-linear TV … at least so far
Element
Key trends over last 10 years
Scheduling / type
of service
▪ Complementarity of non-linear and linear TV for popular TV series and
Device / service
Transmission
programmes – potentially having a significant impact
▪ Importance of new players offering Internet-based non-linear TV
▪ Simultaneous growth of HDTV and non-linear TV
▪ Simultaneous growth of traditional and non-traditional non-linear TV
▪ Simultaneous growth of traditional transmission TV services (DTT, cable,
satellite, IPTV) and broadband/Internet-based networks
Consumption
▪ High growth in non-linear TV viewership needs to be put in line with the
current evolution of the overall TV market
Business model
▪ Although growing fast, non-linear TV revenues still make up a very small
part of the whole TV market
▪ We expect non-linear TV to continue to grow – but it could grow:
– along with linear TV, i.e. as a complement
– at the expense of linear TV, i.e. as a substitute
20. 19
Although revenue from online TV is increasing exponentially,
it still represents less than 2% of total TV revenues
Non-linear revenues as % of total TV revenues
in larger EU countries, 2008–11
Total non-linear revenues by source in larger
EU countries, 2008–11 (EUR million)
200
1.6%
180
1.4%
160
1.2%
140
1.0%
120
100
0.8%
80
0.6%
60
0.4%
40
0.2%
20
0.0%
0
Germany
Spain
2007
Pay-TV
France
2008
2009
UK
2010
FTA
Free models seems to be gaining momentum in most countries, but pay-TV
models are also growing in relative terms in Germany
Source: EAO, Analysys Mason
Italy
21. 20
Future TV consumption – will connected TV be a complement
for linear TV, or a substitute? Figures illustrative – for discussion only
250
Connected TV as a substitute – erosion
or decline in traditional TV
Consumption of online video vs TV (min)
Consumption of online video vs TV (min)
Connected TV as a complement –
traditional TV follows historical trend
200
150
100
50
0
TV
Online Video
250
200
150
100
50
0
TV
Online Video
22. 21
Concluding remarks
§ Complexity and uncertainty in short, medium and long term
- tactical approach for short term
- strategic planning for medium to long term
§ Established and new players have different perspectives
- a land of opportunity for new players
- limited ‘losses’ for established players, but a threat in medium
and long term – prepare tactically!
§ You are not observer but KEY PLAYERs
§ Your actions can change current forecasts!
23. Evolving Operator’s Services
To the Digital World
Optimize the Digital Customer Experience
for African Markets
Ofer Segev
Head of Digital and Value Added Services Sales, EMEA
1 – 2013 v02
Q2
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200 Quannapowitt Parkway
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COMVERSE
25. MNO’s Flat Rate Communication Service Package
The Bread & Butter of Communication Services
Even the heaviest OTT users buy this package
3
Proprietary and Confidential
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26. Monetary Value of Communication Service Package
UK
Plan A
Plan B
Flat Rate X Gb of Data
Only
Voice &
Messaging
+
X Gb
+$17 of Data
+$42
+$17
% Difference
+51%
+73%
+52%
Subscribers
22.9M
26.1M
19.5M
Total Monthly
Difference
+$0.38 Billion
+$1.09 Billion
+$0.33 Billion
A-B
4
(US$)
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27. Monetary Value of Communication Service Package
Germany
Plan A
Plan B
(US$)
+$57
+$35
+$49
% Difference
+70%
+74%
+62%
Subscribers
37.5M
19.3M
33.9M
Total Monthly
Difference
+$2.15 Billion
+$0.68 Billion
+$1.65 Billion
A-B
5
Proprietary and Confidential
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28. Monetary Value of Communication Service Package
Italy
Plan A
Plan B
(US$)
+$34
+$39
+$18
% Difference
+63%
+59%
+72%
Subscribers
32.1M
22.6M
21.46M
Total Monthly
Difference
+$1.08 Billion
+$0.88 Billion
+$0.38 Billion
A-B
6
Proprietary and Confidential
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29. Monetary Value of Communication Service Package
US
Plan A
Plan B
(US$)
+$30
+$30
+$55
+$30
% Difference
+50%
+50%
+79%
+50%
Subscribers
105.2M
98.9M
53.9M
34M
Total Monthly
Difference
+$3.16 Billion
+$2.97 Billion
+$2.96 Billion
+$1.02 Billion
A-B
7
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30. Monetary Value of Communication Service Package – South Africa
SA
Flat Rate
Communication
Package
+
Data
Data
Only
Monthly Diff. ($US)
+$153
+$138
+$73
% Difference
+94%
+92%
+91%
Subscribers
31M
25M
11.5M
+$14.2 Billion
+$10.4 Billion
+$2.5 Billion
Est. Yearly Value
assuming 80% Pre-Paid
8
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31. Africa - Mobile Penetration
Mobile subscriptions in Africa to reach one billion in 2015 (Informa)
In Africa, it is need, not convenience, that drives adoption, leading to
plenty of mobile applications
Africa Mobile
Penetration
Source: Industry sources,
Blycroft estimates c. Blyrcoft
2012
As device ownership (penetration) grows, so too will the use of services, creating
revenue opportunities for operators
9
9
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32. Feature Phone User vs. Smartphone User
In 2015 Smatphone connection in Africa will reach 20% - (Informa 2013)
Source: IBM; Analysys Mason 2012
10
10
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33. Voice vs. Data
Across Africa, voice services dominate. However, Africa will have highest
regional mobile data traffic growth rate with CAGR of 104%
South Africa
Egypt
Kenya
Mobile Data
Traffic 2011-2016:
CAGR of
Mobile data
2011-2016
to generate
Data revenues
2008-2011:
increased by CAGR of
118%
$11.1bn
67%
Data: 26% total revenues
1111
Source: Africa Mobile Observatory 2012
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34. The Race to LTE
Several African countries are ahead of Europe (UK, Italy, France)
in the race to LTE
No LTE yet? Subscribers with smartphones still consume services over WiFi
12
12
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35. Africans Join the Global Social Conversation
When Africans go online via mobile phones, a majority of
their time is spent on social media platforms.
Source: Report by World Wide Worx with the backing of First National Bank,
13
13
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36. MNOs need to safeguard their position
As the incumbent provider of
the bread & butter of communication services
14
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37. Why Does Everyone Still Buy this Package?
555-4712
100% ubiquity
& reach
15
Default
Identity
(MSISDN)
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Default Voice
call service
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38. Communication Service Package - Projected erosion
Negative
Tipping
point
Communication Package Usage %
100
75
50
25
0
16
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39. Maybe We Should Focus on Voice Only?
Operators will lose theirService Package
MNO’s Communication incumbency
It’s the whole package (bread & butter services) or
nothing at all
17
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40. What’s Risking This Operator’s
Position?
18
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41. Voice is under direct attack of the Internet Giants
Google
Google
19
Facebook
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Microsoft, Apple
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42. Voice is under direct attack of the Internet Giants
Google
May
2013
Oct
2013
Oct
29th
Launches Hangouts on
all devices and platforms
- merges Google Talk
with Google+
20
Facebook
Google Voice integrates
with Hangouts – Low
rates calls to MSISDNs.
Free calls in US & Canada
SMS/MMS
Integration
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Microsoft, Apple
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43. Voice is under direct attack of the Internet Giants
Google
Facebook
Dec
2012
Jan
2013
Integrates SMS into messenger
conversations
(Android only in selected countries)
21
Microsoft, Apple
Integrates Voice
Calling in US & Canada
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44. Voice is under direct attack of the Internet Giants
Google
Facebook
Microsoft, Apple
Beyond all that,
WebRTC will eventually turn voice
call from a service to a feature
22
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45. The do nothing option means
that by 2020
MNOs will loose their position
together with a significant part of their revenues
23
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46. React to Changing User Preferences
User expectation of communication services is shaped by OTT services
Modern features
Services enabled
on any internet
connected device
Rich UX
Mainstream adoption of some IP Services
Soon:
WebRTC
Access
Modernize existing services
And make them available as
a feature for developers
Group chat
Video call
Introduce IP communication
services that are becoming
mainstream
CSP’s must evolve their communication service package to the digital era
24
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47. Challenge of Introducing New IP-enabled Services
native support of RCS on devices:
There is
“Just there, just
no way around downloadable clients works”?
Operators
Hence, reach is limited to others who
downloaded the client
Device
Manufacturers
How to get subscribers to:
Download the operator’s client app
Key challenge
in 2014 reality
Use the client app
Vendors
25
Subscribers
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48. Leveraging Social Networks
Piggyback Riding on the Shoulders of Giants
Time to reach 100 million users
54 months
49 months
19 months
1 year
2 years
3 years
4 years
5 years
“If I have seen further it is by standing on the shoulders of Giants”, Isaac Newton
26
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49. Focus on 4 KPIs in your Digital Strategy
Value for the early adopters
Digital Experience
100
Market Share
%
75
Critical Mass
point
50
25
0
Innovators
Early
2.5%
Adopters
13.5%
Early
Majority
34%
Late
Majority
34%
Laggards
16%
IP Strategy
KPIs
Leverage of Social Networks
27
Utilization of WebRTC
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50. It’s All Clear Now….
It’s not about competing with OTT
MNOs do not have to be cool, glittery or spontaneous
ROI is easily identified
Clear sense of direction
Focus on constantly improving the bread & butter communication services
28
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51. Thank You!
Comverse Digital and Value Added Services
29
29
ofer.segev@comverse.com
Proprietary and Confidential
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