An English 102 assignment: thinking about Hubbert's peak, and oil. One item I did not consider was wind, which I have kept an eye on.

1. Replacing Oil
By Mike Munroe
And Erik Nelson
E

2. Oil is going away
 Hubbert’s Peak
 Finite Resource - Finite
Planet
 Usage exceeds creation
 Use rates are growing
exponentially
 No more “big finds” left
 Not created by better
extraction technology
M

3. Why is Oil Important
 Fuel
 Cars, Ships, Planes
 Farm Equipment
 Energy Generation
 Material
 Polymers
 Semiconductors
 Composites
 Ingredient
 Pharmaceuticals
 Fertilizer/ Pesticides
 Lubricant
 Production
 Transport
 Energy
 Home use
 Industrial Use
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4. No More Oil means:
 2.0 to 5.0 billion people die
 1850s Agriculture (Civil War era)
 1850s Industry
 1930s Medicine (locally produced)
 Huge worldwide depression
 x > 75% of America out of a job
 HUGE national debt
Bottom line: The end of industrialized civilization
E

5. Candidate Oil Replacements
Method:
 Nonrenewable
 Coal
 Natural Gas
 Renewable
 Nuclear
 Corn - Biomaterials
 Solar
 Hydro/Geo -energy
 Nothing
 Stay with oil
Criteria:
 Sustainability
 Solution life
 Solution Impact
 % Replacement
 Fuel
 Material
 Ingredient
 Lubricant
 Costs
 Initial
 Recurring
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6. Candidate Elimination
 Coal  only 100 years worth
 Natural Gas  only 100 years worth
 Nuclear  Radioactive waste
 Biomaterials  ~10% replacement
 Solar  made of oil, 10yr life
 Hydro/Geo  fully utilized
 Stay with oil  its going away

7. Nuclear Hydrogen
Pros:
 10,000 yrs of fuel
 Uses Seawater
 Oxygen byproduct
 minimal proliferation
Cons:
 Energy Costly
 Difficult to
 Transport
 Store
 Use
 Very high initial cost
 Bleeding Edge
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8. A possible solution
Nuclear + Coal → Methanol
Nuclear + (stuff) → Methanol
Stepping Stone
GOAL
Potential Stuff:
• Coal
• Tar Sands
• Lawn Clippings
• Atmospheric CO2
• Cow Manure
• Garbage/ Sewage
• Carbonate Rocks
• Pavement
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9. Fischer-Tropsch (FT) Method
 Developed
 Germany 1920
 Sasol 1950
 Bintulu 1986
 Present patent war between:
 BP
 Exxon
 Shell
 Sasol
 Syntroleum
 Renetech
 Plant Capacity – 4 Mbd
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fischer-Tropsch_process
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10. Variations on a theme
Nuclear +
 Coal
 Natural Gas
 Flora - Biomass
 Fauna - Biomass
 Urban - Biomass
 Geological Carbon
 Carbon Dioxide
 Using the FT method
Add water, carbon, and
heat
Convert to methanol
 Using the FT method
Add carbon, water and
methanol
Convert to polymer and
olefin
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-conventional_oil
M

11. Methanol Fuel Implications
 It is a stable liquid,
− it can be stored, and distributed using current infrastructure
− It has 3x the energy density by volume of hydrogen
 Regular gasoline is 12% to 15% alcohol now
− Current engines already use it.
− Current gas tanks hold it efficiently
− It is safer than gasoline
− It burns 100% clean, no carbon*
*the brown cloud is 99.5% from particulate carbon, this is a powerful solution
Bottom line: We keep the car, truck, ship, and tractor.
M

12. Material/Ingredient Implications
 The FT process can
produce:
 Alcohols

Methanol

Ethanol, etc…
 Alkanes

methane

Octane, etc…
 Olefins

soft & hard waxes

margarines,

lubricants
Bottom line: We keep the farm, pharm., factory, and pc.
M

13. Energy Implications
 Sustainability ~ 10,000 years
 Percent Replacement ≥ 100%
 The US is the Saudi Arabia of Coal
 ~250 billion tons available (214 Trillion gallons)

(that’s 5x the entire history of oil on the planet)
 Cost : currently cheaper than gas
 Material = 4 ¢/gallon
 Energy ≤ 2¢/kwh
Bottom line: this is a sustainable, viable, affordable solution
M

14. Economic Implications
Petroleum (Now)
 Saudi owns 75% of it
 Saudi is unstable: 9/11
 Oil is 1/3 the trade defecit
 China & India are becoming
huge oil consumers.
 Vulnerable to production and
transport disruptions
Nuclear-Methanol
 US owns 25% of it
 On US soil = stable
 Instant $300 Trillion US
economy boost
 We can export to China and
India not compete
 Distributed and
decentralized – hard to hurt
Bottom line: this is good for the US and the World economies
E

15. A crude business plan
Propose to APS, SRP or
DOE

30,000 bl/dy plant

Make “biodiesel”

$600 million to start

1 year payoff

15 to 1 annual ROI

~$1.05 billion gross

Az coal available

12 million short-tons/yr

Closed loop local
economic boost
Bottom line: this is a profitable local business idea

16. THE END
Thank you

17. Methanol from Coal
Some Math
 5.2 gal methanol from 1 gal
of coal
 3.1 ¢/gal at current coal
rates
 500% of the history of oil on
the planet
1 . 0 0 0 g a l h o w m u c h c o a l
1 . 5 5 4 g / c c d e n s it y o f c o a l
3 7 8 5 . 4 1 2 c c / g a l u n it c o n v e r s io n
5 8 8 2 . 5 3 0 g m a s s o f c o a l
1 2 . 0 1 1 g / m o l a t o m ic w t o f c a r b o n
4 8 9 . 7 6 2 m o l m o le s o f c a r b o n
4 8 9 . 7 6 2 m o l m o le s o f m e t h a n o l
3 2 . 0 4 2 g / m o l m o le c u la r w t o f m e t h a n o l
1 5 6 9 2 . 9 5 0 g m a s s o f m e t h a n o l
0 . 7 9 2 g / c c d e n s it y o f m e t h a n o l
1 9 8 1 9 . 3 3 6 c c v o lu m e o f m e t h a n o l
5 . 2 3 6 g a l v o l u m e o f m e t h a n o l f r o m 1 g a l l o n o f c o a l
2 5 . 2 9 0 $ / t o n P r ic e o f c o a l
9 0 7 1 8 4 . 7 4 0 g / t o n
0 . 0 0 0 0 2 8 $ / g
0 . 0 0 0 0 4 3 $ / c c
0 . 1 6 4 $ / g a l
0 . 0 3 1 $ / g a l p r i c e f o r m e t h a n o l f r o m c o a l
2 6 5 . 0 0 0 G t o n m a s s o f c o a l in U S
2 4 0 4 0 3 9 5 6 . 1 0 0 G g
1 5 4 7 0 0 1 0 0 . 4 5 0 G c c
4 0 8 6 7 . 4 4 3 G g a l v o lu m e o f c o a l in U S
2 1 3 9 7 0 . 2 6 8 G g a l v o lu m e o f m e t h a n o l in U S
2 1 3 . 9 7 0 T g a l
4 2 . 0 0 0 g a l/ b l c o n v e r s io n
5 . 0 9 5 T b l
4 9 9 . 5 % % r a t i o t o t o t a l w o r l d p e t r o l e u m r e s e r v e s