This document discusses project risk management. It outlines the key steps in risk management: identify risks, perform qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, and plan risk responses. It provides techniques for identifying risks such as Delphi technique, focus groups, SWOT analysis, and cause-and-effect diagrams. It also discusses tools for qualitative analysis like the probability impact matrix and for quantitative analysis like expected monetary value analysis. Finally, it covers strategies for responding to risks like avoid, transfer, mitigate, exploit, and accept risks.

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Project Management
Elodie Descharmes
Elodie.descharmes@gmail.com

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Risk management
(Plan Risk Management)
Identify Risks
Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
Perform Quantitative Risks Analysis
Plan Risk Responses
(Implement Risks responses)
(Control Risks)

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Risk definition
• Event (cause)
• Probability
• Impacts (effects)
Risks ≠ Assumptions
« Positive »
risks =
opportunities
« Negative »
risks

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Risk definition

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IDENTIFY RISKS

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Information gathering techniques
(reminder)
• Delphi technique
– questionnaire
– individual and anonymous answer
redaction
– shuffled redistribution
– new individual and anonymous
answer redaction
 repeat as many time as the number of
participants
• Focus groups
(experts)
• Workshops
(multidisciplinary)

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SWOT

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SWOT

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Cause-and-effect
diagrams (Ishikawa
/ fishbone)

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Cause-and-effect diagrams (Ishikawa
/ fishbone)

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Risk Breakdown Structure
http://www.gpmfirst.com/books/practical-schedule-risk-analysis/uncertainty-activity-durations-using-probability

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PERFORM QUALITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS

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Probabilityimpactmatrix Impact
Very
low
Low High Very
high
Probability
Very
high
High
Low
Very
low

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Probabilityimpactmatrix Impact
Very
low
Low High Very
high
Probability
Very
high
High
Low
Very
low

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Probabilityimpactmatrix Impact
Very
low
Low High Very
high
Probability
Very
high
High
Low
Very
low
R1
R2
R3

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Impact Impact
Very
low
Low High Very
high
Very
high
High Low Very
low
Probability
Very
high
High
Low
Very
low
Threats Opportunities
Probability impact matrix (full)

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PERFORM QUANTITATIVE RISK
ANALYSIS

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Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis
• Expected monetary value (EMV) analysis
Très utile pour mettre en
évidence le danger de
l’accumulation de risques
mineurs (qui
individuellement ne
seraient pas traités)

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PLAN RISK RESPONSES

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Strategies
• For negative risks or
threats
– Avoid
– Transfer
– Mitigate
– Accept
• For positive risks or
opportunities
– Exploit
– Share
– Enhance
– Accept

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Strategies

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ADD-ONS

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Risk taking
… promotion !
No risks, no project !

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Minimax
• Minimizing the
possible loss for a
worst case
(maximum loss)
scenario
• Minimax regret :
minimize the
worst-case regret

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Quiz

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Impact
Very low Low High Very high
Probability
Very
high
High
Low
Very
low
Risk analysis