Presentation by Karl-Erik Tender, Estonian Ministry of Social Affairs during the conference on "The impact of the crisis on employment in the Baltic states" in Vilnius (19 Nov 2010)

1. Recent trends in Estonian labour market
19th
of november, 2010
Vilnius

2. Population projection 2010 - 2050
Source: Statistics Estonia
201705 240684 222503 202022 222006
908065 844217
808863 786663 730196
226788 243358
265016
275805 297908
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
65+
15-64
0-14

3. Dynamics of employment and unemployment rates 2000–2010, %
Source: Statistics Estonia, Labour Force Survey
58,9
60,7
19,2
13,6
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 I-IIq
0
5
10
15
20
25
Employment rate Unemployment rate

4. Dynamics of employment and unemployment rates, 2008 – 2010, %
Source: Statistics Estonia, Labour Force Survey
69,2
61,9
4,2
15,5
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
2008 I II III IV 2009 I II III IV 2010 I II III
0
5
10
15
20
25
Employment rate (15-64) Unemployment rate (15-74)

5. Employment rate by sex, 2008 - 2010
Source: Statistics Estonia, Labour Force Survey
64,1
59,9
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2008 I II III IV 2009 I II III IV 2010 I II III
%
Men Women

6. Unemployment rate by sex, 2008 - 2010
Source: Statistics Estonia, Labour Force Survey
16,1
14,9
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
2008 I II III IV 2009 I II III IV 2010 I II III
%
Men Women

7. Number of employed and unemployed and forecasts of the
Ministry of Finance (25.08.2010)
578,2
105,9 (2010 IIIQ)
72,6
500
520
540
560
580
600
620
640
660
680
2008I
II
III
IV
2009I
II
III
IV
2010I
II
III
IV
2011
2012
2013
2014
thousand
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
thousand
Employed
Unemployed (right-hand scale)
Registered unemployed (rihgt-hand scale); average at the end of month

8. Employed persons by sector of economy 2008 – 2010, %
Source: Statistics Estonia, Labour Force
Survey
4,6
3,9
4,3
35,4
31,7
60,4
60,7
64,3
67,7
4,0
35,0
28,0
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
2007
2008
2009
2010 I-IIQ
Primary Secondary Tertiary

9. Unemployed by duration of unemployment and discouraged
persons, 2000 - 2010
Source: Statistics Estonia, Labour Force Survey
55,7
50,2
8,8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010IQ
IIQ
IIIQ
thousand
Long-term unemployed (12 months and more) Short-term unemployed (less than 12 months)
Discouraged persons

10. Youth unemployment rate by sex, 2008-2010, %
Source: Statistics Estonia, Labour Force Survey
28,0
7,5
25,4
31,1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2008 I
q
II q III q IV q 2009 I
q
II q III q IV q 2010 I
q
II q III q
Total Men Women

11. Number of unemployed by level of education 2000-2010 I-IIq
Source: Statistics Estonia, Labour Force Survey
24 000
84 900
23 500
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
I-IIq
thousand
ISCED I level II level III level

12. Number of registered unemployed at the end of month
(sept 2009 – oct 2010)
Source: Unemployment Insurance Fund
67 380
81 050
85 860
91 668
84 178
76 444 72 143
75 780
69 829
95 08793 802
91 544
87 282
80 143
60 000
65 000
70 000
75 000
80 000
85 000
90 000
95 000
100 000
30.09.2009
31.10.2009
30.11.2009
31.12.2009
31.01.2010
28.02.2010
31.03.2010
30.04.2010
31.05.2010
30.06.2010
31.07.2010
31.08.2010
30.09.2010
31.10.2010

13. New registered unemployed and new vacancies during the month
(sept 2009- oct 2010)
Source: Unemployment Insurance Fund
7402
6 7346 458
7 369
10 663
11 370
6 800
6 465
8 320
9 722
9 162
11 212
9 341
10 573
3381
368134993428
2914
4218
3361
2944
2214
16571425
793823944
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
11 000
12 000
09.2009
10.2009
11.2009
12.2009
01.2010
02.2010
03.2010
04.2010
05.2010
06.2010
07.2010
08.2010
09.2010
10.2010

14. Thank you for your attention!
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