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DSD-SEA 2019 Latest developments in Deltares Hydro Software-Hegnauer

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Presentation by Mr. Mark Hegnauer, Deltares (The Netherlands) at the Seminar Hydro Software to support policy development and real-time decision making, during the Deltares Software Days South-East Asia 2019. Wednesday, 27 November 2019, Bangkok.

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DSD-SEA 2019 Latest developments in Deltares Hydro Software-Hegnauer

  1. 1. Latest developments in Deltares Hydro Software Introduction to the workshops Mark Hegnauer, Deltares
  2. 2. • 3 workshops: • Workshop Coastal flood forecasting using Delft-FEWS (+ Delft3D FM) • Workshop River Basin / Rainfall – Runoff Modelling using wflow • Workshop on The Adaptation Catalyst Tool • Youth Forum on Disaster Risk Reduction Now a short introduction to the software! Program for the next days
  3. 3. Coastal flood forecasting using Delft-FEWS
  4. 4. UN ISDR Guidelines for the reduction of flood losses: “The operation of a flood warning and response system is the most effective method for reducing the risk of loss of life and economic losses” Why Delft-FEWS?
  5. 5. • Detecting: What is happening now? • Forecasting: What will happen in the future? • Warning: Is it going to be a problem? • Response: Should action be taken? The Delft-FEWS platform De-facto standard model – data platform
  6. 6. Delft-FEWS applications around the world
  7. 7. The Delft-FEWS community https://oss.deltares.nl/web/delft-fews
  8. 8. Data collection Data processing Running models Analysis Action Precipitation radar, telemetry, satellite, external forecasts Interpolate to catchment, merge sources, aggregate Hydrological rainfall-runoff, hydraulic, overland flow Floodplain flooding, levee overtopping, threshold crossing Inform decision makers, send warnings, create flood bulletins The Delft-FEWS architecture
  9. 9. The Delft-FEWS architecture Model adaptor Delft-FEWS General Adapter External Model Import Export database weather forecast radar & telemetry *** field measurements distributed clients emergency services internet/intranet www archive Processing Validation Interpolation Transformations etc.
  10. 10. Delft-FEWS : Easy access to (global) data
  11. 11. Delft-FEWS example for the Chao Phraya river RainfallAccumulated rainfall
  12. 12. Delft-FEWS example for Hokkaido, Japan RainfallAccumulated rainfall
  13. 13. Delft-FEWS example for the Rhine, NL RainfallAccumulated rainfall
  14. 14. About the workshop • Presentation of wflow and hydrological modelling • Series of exercises on: • Starting the Delft-FEWS software • Import and exporting data • Running a model from Delft-FEWS • Visualizing gridded and scalar data • Basic validation and surge calculations
  15. 15. River Basin Modelling using wflow
  16. 16. River Basin Modelling using wflow • The Deltares open source hydrological modelling framework • wflow can be used freely • Key strengths: • Directly links to available (gridded) datasets • Fully distributed model • Open Source • Strongly linked to other packages (Delft3D FM, Delft-FEWS, MODFLOW, RIBASIM) • Source code can be downloaded from: https://github.com/openstreams/wflow/ • More information: https://www.deltares.nl/en/software/wflow-hydrology/
  17. 17. Features of wflow • A sediment routing module • Water quality - create and link a D-Water Quality or D-Emissions model (Delft3D FM Suite) to wflow • A crop growth module for irrigated rice dynamics • Reservoirs and natural lakes routing • Linked to OpenDA (for data assimilation) • Basic model interface (BMI) for coupling with other models 19 DelftSoftwareDays-wflowuserday2019
  18. 18. 2018 – Completed projects 20 DelftSoftwareDays-wflowuserday2019
  19. 19. 2019 – Rapid uptake 21 DelftSoftwareDays-wflowuserday2019
  20. 20. High resolution hydrography data Upscaled model resolution hydrography and subgrid river data Global-wflow parameter estimation DelftSoftwareDays-wflowuserday2019 22
  21. 21. Large-scale testing of global-wflow DelftSoftwareDays-wflowuserday2019 23
  22. 22. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 12-12-201531-1-201621-3-201610-5-201629-6-201618-8-20167-10-201626-11-201615-1-20176-3-2017 A5431010 5431010 sim 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 11-11-201731-12-201719-2-201810-4-201830-5-201819-7-20187-9-201827-10-201816-12-20184-2-2019 6435060 Lobith Rh 6435060 sim Preliminary results without calibration!
  23. 23. 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 1-10-200019-4-20015-11-200124-5-200210-12-200228-6-2003 3629001 Obidos Am 3629001 sim0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 1-10-20009-1-200119-4-200128-7-20015-11-200113-2-200224-5-20021-9-200210-12-200220-3-2003 3624300 Envira Ta 3624300 sim 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 1-10-2000 19-4-2001 5-11-2001 24-5-2002 10-12-2002 28-6-2003 3627035 Humaita Mad 3627035 sim 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 1-10-2000 19-4-2001 5-11-2001 24-5-2002 10-12-2002 28-6-2003 3629150 Fortaleza Ta 3629150 sim Preliminary results without calibration!
  24. 24. Delft3D-UserDays(Waterqualityandecology) 26 Emissions Modelling D-Water Quality (1D2D3D) wflow D-Emissions Societal, ecological impact D-Flow FM (1D2D3D)
  25. 25. Modelling inland water quality and emissions • The hydrologic wflow_sbm model is now linked to D-Emission and D-Water Quality using a coupling script that: • Translates wflow schematization to D-Water Quality schematization • Prepares dynamic inputs needed for water quality modelling (different water fluxes and volumes, emission factors) • Is flexible enough to enable different types of pollutants emissions modelling Deltares–DSD-INT-2019–wflowuserday 27 Overview of the schematization of a D-Emission model for nutrients
  26. 26. Modelling basin-scale soil erosion with wflow Development of a sediment model coupled to wflow: • Can be based entirely on global datasets • Limited calibration for the soil loss part needed Deltares–DSD-INT-2019–wflowuserday 28
  27. 27. River Basin Modelling with wflow Deltares–DSD-INT-2019–wflowuserday 29
  28. 28. About the workshop • Presentation of wflow and hydrological modelling • Series of tutorials on: • Installing the software • Exploring and running the model • Using different data sources • Using the latest wflow model setup (release 2019.01) • Test case: subcatchment of the Rhine based on the wflow global models set-up and parameterization 30 Deltares–DSD-SEA2019–wflowWorkshop
  29. 29. The Adaptation Catalyst Tool
  30. 30. Adaptive Planning – What’s new? What is not new? • for centuries we adapted our delta to change • but often in response to (near) disasters What is new: • anticipate the change (SLR-CC) • but these changes are uncertain • this requires new approaches and methods Dealing with uncertainties is the key issue of adaptive planning: • “what to do and when to do it?” • “not too much, not too little” • “not too early, nor too late”
  31. 31. Climate Adaption options
  32. 32. Climate Adaption Pathways 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 +++ ++ 0 - - - 0 0 0 - - - - - -+ 0 +++ +++ +++++ ++++ +++ + + 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Time horizon 50 years Current situation Action A Action B Action C Action D 1 2 3 4 5 9 Pathway Co-benefitsCosts Benefits +++ ++ 0 - - - 0 0 0 -0 +++ +++++ +++ + + 0 0 0 0 Transfer station to new policy action Adaptation Tipping Point of a policy action (Terminal) Policy action effective Changing conditions Time high-end scenario Time low-end scenario 0 0 10 70 80 90 100 Years 10 70 80 90 100 Time horizon 100 years 7 -+++ 0 6 -++++ 0 8 - - -+ + Pathways that are not necessary in low-end scenario Time horizon 20 years An adaptation pathway map shows different possible sequences of decisions to achieve objectives. A scorecard helps to evaluate the pathways and decisions.
  33. 33. • In water management we are facing an uncertain future But we have to make decisions now: Too early? Too little? Too late? Too much? • Dynamic Adaptation Policy Pathways • Tools we are going to use: Sustainable Delta Game (serious game about decision making under uncertainty) Adaptation Catalyst (discussion support tool for developing sequences of interventions) Pathways Generator (discussion support tool for visualisation of Adaptation Pathways) About the workshop
  34. 34. Youth Forum on Flood Resilient Infrastructure Critical Infrastructure and Flooding • How can flooding impact the critical infrastructure (CI)? • What are the different impacts of CI disruption and failure? Introduction to CIrcle tool • Introduction to CIrcle tool that can be used to assess the impacts of CI disruption and failure. Flood risk reduction • What are the different flood risk reduction measures to reduce the flood risks? • Can we apply them all?
  35. 35. CIRCLE: Critical Infrastructures: Relations and Consequences for Life and Environment • Calculate impact of flooding on Critical Infrastructure (CI) • Find and visualize cascading effects • Define measures to protect CI
  36. 36. • Gather information about CI CIRCLE: Critical Infrastructures: Relations and Consequences for Life and Environment
  37. 37. • Determine flood impact on CI CIRCLE: Critical Infrastructures: Relations and Consequences for Life and Environment
  38. 38. • Determine cascading effect of failing CI CIRCLE: Critical Infrastructures: Relations and Consequences for Life and Environment
  39. 39. https://circle.deltares.org/
  40. 40. Youth Forum on Flood Resilient Infrastructure Problem understanding Problem prioritisation Work together to find solutions Increased flood resilience Through a case study of Bangkok you will participate in an interesting exercise…
  41. 41. Program coming days 44

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