Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

DSD-SEA 2018 Current Situation of the Forecasting and Early Warning Systems in Vietnam - Tranh Huyen

28 views

Published on

Presentation by Ms. Tran Thanh Huyen, M.Sc. (Central for Environmental Fluid Dynamic – Vietnam National University) at the Seminar Cutting Edge Hydro Software for South-East Asia, during the Deltares Software Days South-East Asia 2018. Thursday, 6 September 2018, Yogyakarta.

Published in: Software
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

DSD-SEA 2018 Current Situation of the Forecasting and Early Warning Systems in Vietnam - Tranh Huyen

  1. 1. Current Situation of the Forecasting and Early Warning Systems in Vietnam – Limitations and the Needs for a Centralized - Integrated Forecasting System Presenter: Tran Thanh Huyen On behalf of Center for Environmental Fluid Dynamics, CEFD, Vienam
  2. 2. CONTENTS 1. Hazards in Vietnam 2. Current situation of forecasting and early warning system in Vietnam – Limitations and needs 3. Framework for an integrated forecasting and early warning system 4. Challenges in system integration in Vietnam
  3. 3. Hazards in Vietnam
  4. 4. Hazards in Vietnam - Lifetime risks to be coped with •Most common hazards: • River flooding • Typhoon (av. 8 per year) • Storm surges & inundation • Flash flood • Drought • Whirlwind • Salinity Intrusion • Landslides •In 10 years (2003-2013): • 77 natural disaster • 3000 fatalities • 7 billion USD damage
  5. 5. Current situation of the forecasting and early warning systems in Vietnam
  6. 6. The forecasting and early warning systems in Vietnam at a glance STATUS Ca. 3000 staff, mostly observers, divided into top-down levels as shown in the pyramid beside LIMITATIONS • Observation network mostly manual; equipment partly old • Data transmission (relatively high latency) • Radar coverage not optimal, poor data processing • Limited NWP capacity • Data management fragmented • Dissemination mostly through textual forecast bulletins 01 National Centre 09 Regional Centres 54 Provincial Centres
  7. 7. Main bottlenecks, weaknesses of the Vietnam Meteorological Hydrological Administration (VMHA) Observation systems and stations Transmission Prov./Region/Central Forecasts and warning bulletins Data collection and processing Models and DSS Distribution and delivery End Users  Radar system needs upgrade  Surface network too coarse  More automated stations needed  Lack of funds for O&M cause unreliable network  Insufficient reliability  Limited bandwidth  Too fragmented data handling  Equipment from many different suppliers  Many different databases  Lack of integrated EWS software  Enhancement of NWP and QPF needed  More trained staff needed  Complicated management system  Limited resources for O&M  Limited access to modern forecasting and data display and management tools Global / regional weather models  Dispersed / fragmented  Manual fax and e-mail delivery  More timely and accurate forecasts and warnings needed  More detailed and locally specific products that meet specific user needs  More access to data  Diversification of end users needed  Limited paying clients Prov. / Regional / National Centers General:  No formalized forecast evaluation procedure  Duplication of efforts between national, regional and provincial centres.
  8. 8. Forecasting ranges in NWP models Weather forecasting: •Domain selection •Ensembles: up to 51 •Models: WRF, COSMO, NHM, HWRF
  9. 9. Forecasting ranges in NWP models Weather forecasting: •Domain selection •Ensembles: up to 51 •Models: WRF, COSMO, NHM, HWRF
  10. 10. Forecasting ranges in NWP models Weather forecasting: •Domain selection •Ensembles: up to 51 •Models: WRF, COSMO, NHM, HWRF
  11. 11. What do we need? 1. More station data with higher reliability 2. Unification of database and data handling 3. Better management in coordination/cooperation between different levels of Meteo-hydro service centres in Vietnam 4. Modern forecast display and visual tool supporting decision making 5. Better means of issuing and disseminating bulletins A comprehensive, centralized integrated forecasting and early warning system
  12. 12. Framework for an integrated forecasting and early warning system
  13. 13. Scheme for an integrated forecasting and early warning system
  14. 14. • Central Data Hub (CDH) receives all observation data from the stations automatically • Plug-in modules for standard format. • Data Quality Assurance (QA) • Data synchronisation between Regional Centres and CDH • Provincial and Regional Centres run their ‘own’ hydrological models through a Client-Server system. Center Data Hub (CDH)
  15. 15. Data assimilation and forecasting: IT configuration
  16. 16. Using Delft-FEWS as a forecasting sub-system Source: C2-DV4-Package Technical Proposal Models can be integrated: MIKE (11-NAM), Wflow, SOBEK, etc. Input data: NWP, Forecast, Satellites, Station data…
  17. 17. Red River: - MARINE - MIKE11 Ma River: NAM Ca River: NAM Huong River: MARINE Thu Bon River: - MIKE + NAM - WETSPA + HEC-RAS Tra Khuc River: - SSARR - NAM Se Ban: MIKE Ba: MIKE Srepok: MIKE Mekong Delta: ISIS Dinh Hydrological models applied for some river basins in Vietnam
  18. 18. A Delft-FEWS example for Red river Basin
  19. 19. A Delft-FEWS example in Red river Basin
  20. 20. A Delft-FEWS example in Red river Basin
  21. 21. A DELFT-FEWS example in Red river Basin
  22. 22. A DELFT-FEWS example in Red river Basin
  23. 23. End-to-end early warning system Central Forecasting Service Regional Forecasting Services Central Steering Committee for Disaster Prevention Center Regional/local SCDPC
  24. 24. End-to-end early warning system
  25. 25. Other issues regarding system integration • Different hard- and software solutions (inter- operability issues), requires constant attention (ref. Decision on System Integration) • IT modernization requires adaptation in standard operation procedures • Delft-FEWS Client-Server approach needs better explained at all levels and clear task division needed:  Central level: Delft-FEWS O&M  Decentral level: models O&M • Reservoir modelling requires special attention • Forecasters need to be trained on using the integrated system
  26. 26. Acknowledgement • Information of projects is provided by Dr. Marcel Marchand from Deltares, Project manager of the World Bank 5 Project • Technical assistance consultants of the Project: Joint-venture: Deltares, the Netherlands; Center for Environmental Fluid Dynamics, Vietnam (CEFD); and HaskoningDHV, the Netherlands/Vietnam • Vietnam Meteorological Hydrological Administration (VMHA) • The DV4 contractor: Joint-venture of JBA, UK and Kister, Germany

×