2. Who is Anchor Capital
• Founded 2011
• Part of listed Anchor Group (R2.2bn market cap)
• Over R20bn of assets under management and administration –
• CIS and Segregated Portfolio`s
• Local and offshore investment team (20 investment professionals)
• 3 year track record
• Offices in Sandton, Durban, Pretoria, Cape Town, London
• 70 degreed staff (7 CA(SA)’s, 12 CFA’s/CFA candidates)
3. David Gibb
BSc Med (UCT), CA (SA), CFA
Liberty Asset Management (later Stanlib) 1994 to 2008
Head of equity research at Stanlib
Track record as unit trust manager at Stanlib
Winner 2008
Micropal Award – 5 year performance Domestic EQ Industrial
Winner 2005
Raging Bull Awards - 3 year performance Global Technology
S&P Fund Award - 3 year performance Global Technology
Winner 2003
S&P Fund Award – 1 year performance Global Technology
Joined Anchor Capital in July 2012
Manager of the Anchor BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund
4. Peter Little
B.Com Accounting degree & CFA charter holder
18 years financial markets experience
Worked for a number for Global Investment banks in London (incl JPM,
Barclays Capital, RBS & Credit Suisse) predominantly in structuring and
derivatives roles
Transferred to New York in 2005 with Credit Suisse Asset Management to
manage various hedge fund products
Most recent role before returning to SA was Head of Fund Management for
Liquid Systematic Hedge Funds for Credit Suisse in NY
Joined Anchor Capital towards the end of 2013
Manager of the Anchor Global Capital Plus Fund
14. Investment philosophy
• Investment in companies with a durable competitive advantage
when? down in the business cycle
made a mistake that can be fixed
growth is underestimated
Invest for the long term
15. US banks – Price to book values have been hit hard
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
P/tBV
Source: Bloomberg – S&P Bank Index S5BankX Price to Tangible book value
16. Large banks continue to gain market share in the US
Share of
Assets by
Bank Type
Source: FDIC Statistics; The State and Fate of Community Banking, Lux & Greene
17. US banking net interest margin (NIM) at multi-decade lows
%
Source: Federal Reserve
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
1985 1995 2005 2015
25. Asset Allocation Positioning
• Low potential for absolute returns in fixed income
• Commodities creating tail risk rather than offering diversification
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Equity Fixed Income & Cash Real Estate Commodities
Asset Allocation
Range
Minimum
Current
27. Global Quantitative Easing
• G4 Central bank balance sheets have expanded by ~ $ 6.5 trl post-GFC
• G4 Central banks have doubled their share of bond market ownership
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
Central Bank Balance Sheets
(USD trl)
UNITED STATES ($) JAPAN ($) UK ($) EU ($)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Central Banks’ Ownership of Bonds
G4 Balance Sheets (USD) Global Bond Markets
% Owned (RHS)
Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital
Source: Bloomberg, BIS, Anchor Capital
28. Low Yields & Inflation Expectations
• With low yields small movements in the yield curve can easily generate negative total returns in LT treasuries
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
-
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
US Rates & Inflation
US 10 Year Yield US CPI (RHS)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
US CPI expectation
Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital
Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital
29. Fixed Income Diversification Benefits
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Correlations
S&P 500 v US 10Y
Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital
33. Global Consumption
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Consumption % GDP
CHINA Consumption % GDP
US Consumption % GDP
-
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
Consumption ($ bln)
US Consumption Chinese Consumption
Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital
• Chinese consumption is growing fast but has a long way to go before it can take the baton from the US consumer
35. US Household Wealth
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Home Sales
New Home Sales (mil) Existing Home Sales
0
1
2
3
4
5
Future Homes
New Home Starts (mil) Permits Issued (mil)
• Trend is good but well below pre-crisis levels
Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital
36. US Household Wealth
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
US BANK DELINQUENCY RATES
RESIDENTIAL MORT COMMERCIAL MORT CREDIT CARD OTHER CONSUMER C&I LOANS
• Residential mortgage debt is the only major type of US debt that hasn’t recovered to pre-GFC levels
Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital
37. Chinese Consumer
• China GDP/Capita growing at 16% p.a. (US = 2% p.a.) over last 10 years
• Urbanisation rate is still on 55% (OECD = 80%)
-
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
GDP per Capita
$GDP Per Capita (US) $GDP Per Capita (Japan)
$GDP Per Capita (Korea) $GDP Per Capita (China)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Chinese Urban Population
Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital
38. Chinese Consumer
-
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
China Old vs New (Revenue Growth)
China Consumer Discretionary China Consumer Discretionary (ex-Auto)
China Real Estate China Industrials
China Real Estate (Trend) Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital
China Old vs New (Revenue Growth)
Consumer
Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary
(ex-auto)
Real
Estate
Industrials
Annualised (10 Years) 19.3% 14.7% 19.2% 13.4%
2015 H1 3.7% 3.4% 92.9% -12.9%
2014 6.0% 3.6% 16.9% -4.5%
2013 14.1% 13.1% 21.2% 10.8%
39. Chinese Consumer
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Consumer Discretionary Revenue Growth
US vs China
US Consumer Discretionary US Consumer Discretionary (ex-Auto)
China Consumer Discretionary China Consumer Discretionary (ex-Auto)
Consumer Discretionary Consumer Discretionary (ex-auto)
US China US China
Annualised (10 Years) 3.1% 19.3% 1.7% 14.7%
2015 H1 3.6% 3.7% -1.4% 3.4%
2014 4.6% 6.0% 3.7% 3.6%
2013 5.8% 14.1% 5.0% 13.1%
Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital
43. RISK/RETURN UNIVERSE
HIGH
MEDIUM
LOW
2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% 12.5% 15.0% 17.5%
COLLECTIVE INVESTMENT SCHEMESRisk
Targeted return
WORLDWIDE
FLEXIBLE
EQUITY
SA EQUITY
MANAGED
FLEXIBLE INCOME
GLOBAL EQUITY
GLOBAL CAPITAL
PLUS
BCI UNIT TRUSTS
OFFSHORE
PRODUCTS
KEY
ASTORIA