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© 2009-2015 Anchor Capital (Pty) Ltd. | An authorised Financial Services Provider Reg No # 2009/002925/07 | FSP No # 39834
Who is Anchor Capital
• Founded 2011
• Part of listed Anchor Group (R2.2bn market cap)
• Over R20bn of assets under management and administration –
• CIS and Segregated Portfolio`s
• Local and offshore investment team (20 investment professionals)
• 3 year track record
• Offices in Sandton, Durban, Pretoria, Cape Town, London
• 70 degreed staff (7 CA(SA)’s, 12 CFA’s/CFA candidates)
David Gibb
 BSc Med (UCT), CA (SA), CFA
 Liberty Asset Management (later Stanlib) 1994 to 2008
 Head of equity research at Stanlib
 Track record as unit trust manager at Stanlib
 Winner 2008
 Micropal Award – 5 year performance Domestic EQ Industrial
 Winner 2005
 Raging Bull Awards - 3 year performance Global Technology
 S&P Fund Award - 3 year performance Global Technology
 Winner 2003
 S&P Fund Award – 1 year performance Global Technology
 Joined Anchor Capital in July 2012
 Manager of the Anchor BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund
Peter Little
 B.Com Accounting degree & CFA charter holder
 18 years financial markets experience
 Worked for a number for Global Investment banks in London (incl JPM,
Barclays Capital, RBS & Credit Suisse) predominantly in structuring and
derivatives roles
 Transferred to New York in 2005 with Credit Suisse Asset Management to
manage various hedge fund products
 Most recent role before returning to SA was Head of Fund Management for
Liquid Systematic Hedge Funds for Credit Suisse in NY
 Joined Anchor Capital towards the end of 2013
 Manager of the Anchor Global Capital Plus Fund
© 2009-2015 Anchor Capital (Pty) Ltd. | An authorised Financial Services Provider Reg No # 2009/002925/07 | FSP No # 39834
David Gibb –
Global Investment
Opportunities
© 2009-2015 Anchor Capital (Pty) Ltd. | An authorised Financial Services Provider Reg No # 2009/002925/07 | FSP No # 39834
US markets and China
How expensive are US stock markets?
US corporate earnings well above trend
Cyclically adjusted PE (CAPE) is very high versus history
Chinese economy is in transition
.....causing turmoil in steel markets
Source: Financial Times 28 Oct ‘15
Commodities – back to where we started
Source: Financial Times 30 Oct ‘15
Investment Opportunities
Investment philosophy
• Investment in companies with a durable competitive advantage
when? down in the business cycle
made a mistake that can be fixed
growth is underestimated
 Invest for the long term
US banks – Price to book values have been hit hard
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
P/tBV
Source: Bloomberg – S&P Bank Index S5BankX Price to Tangible book value
Large banks continue to gain market share in the US
Share of
Assets by
Bank Type
Source: FDIC Statistics; The State and Fate of Community Banking, Lux & Greene
US banking net interest margin (NIM) at multi-decade lows
%
Source: Federal Reserve
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
1985 1995 2005 2015
US banks
US Bancorp
JP Morgan Chase
Wells Fargo
Adam Jones – Welsh rugby player
UK car insurance premiums have turned up
Source: Confused.com car insurance price index
Admiral is just a top-class car insurer
Source: Admiral H1 2015 results
Other opportunities
General Electric
Yum Brands
Starbucks
Pandora
Alphabet (Google)
Glaxo
Anchor BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund
Performance since inception 13 May 2013 to 31 October 2015
Unit trust ranking 5/30
1 yr
6/29
2 yrs
Peter Little –
Opportunities within global asset
allocation
Asset Allocation Positioning
• Low potential for absolute returns in fixed income
• Commodities creating tail risk rather than offering diversification
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Equity Fixed Income & Cash Real Estate Commodities
Asset Allocation
Range
Minimum
Current
Fixed Income
Global Quantitative Easing
• G4 Central bank balance sheets have expanded by ~ $ 6.5 trl post-GFC
• G4 Central banks have doubled their share of bond market ownership
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
Central Bank Balance Sheets
(USD trl)
UNITED STATES ($) JAPAN ($) UK ($) EU ($)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Central Banks’ Ownership of Bonds
G4 Balance Sheets (USD) Global Bond Markets
% Owned (RHS)
Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital
Source: Bloomberg, BIS, Anchor Capital
Low Yields & Inflation Expectations
• With low yields small movements in the yield curve can easily generate negative total returns in LT treasuries
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
-
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
US Rates & Inflation
US 10 Year Yield US CPI (RHS)
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
US CPI expectation
Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital
Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital
Fixed Income Diversification Benefits
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Correlations
S&P 500 v US 10Y
Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital
Fixed Income Opportunities
-
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
Barclays High Yield Bond Index
SPREAD (RHS) PRICE
Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital
Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital
Fixed Income Opportunities
Sector % End Wgt Tot Rtn 1M Tot Rtn 2M Tot Rtn QTD Tot Rtn 6M Tot Rtn YTD Tot Rtn 1Y Tot Rtn 2Y Tot Rtn 3Y
SPDR BARCLAYS HIGH YIELD BOND ETF 100% -3% -5% -6% -6% -4% -5% 2% 8%
Communications 21% -4% -5% -4% -6% -3% -2% 6% 12%
Consumer, Non-cyclical 17% -2% -2% -1% -1% 2% 4% 12% 19%
Energy 14% -6% -13% -18% -19% -17% -27% -22% -19%
Consumer, Cyclical 14% -2% -2% -1% -1% 1% 3% 8% 16%
Financial 9% -1% -1% -1% -1% 2% 3% 11% 18%
Industrial 8% -2% -4% -4% -4% -1% -1% 6% 12%
Technology 6% 0% -1% -1% -2% 1% 2% 12% 21%
Basic Materials 6% -5% -7% -12% -13% -11% -14% -8% -2%
Utilities 3% -3% -4% -4% -4% -1% 1% 8% 11%
Diversified 1% -2% -2% -1% 1% 7% 3% 15% 26%
SECTOR TOTAL RETURN
Name % End Wgt Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15
SPDR BARCLAYS HIGH YIELD BOND ETF 100% 6.8% 6.8% 6.3% 6.6% 6.3% 6.4% 6.8% 7.0% 7.5% 8.3%
Utilities 3% 5.9% 5.9% 5.6% 5.8% 5.7% 5.6% 6.0% 6.1% 6.6% 7.3%
Technology 6% 6.5% 6.4% 6.1% 6.1% 6.2% 6.3% 6.7% 6.8% 6.8% 7.1%
Industrial 8% 6.7% 6.7% 6.2% 6.4% 6.4% 6.2% 6.7% 6.8% 7.4% 8.0%
Financial 9% 5.3% 5.1% 4.8% 5.1% 5.1% 5.0% 5.4% 5.4% 5.6% 5.9%
Energy 14% 9.4% 9.6% 8.6% 9.4% 8.5% 8.6% 9.1% 10.3% 12.3% 13.6%
Diversified 1% 8.7% 8.5% 7.0% 7.1% 6.9% 6.8% 7.2% 6.9% 7.1% 7.7%
Consumer, Non-cyclical 17% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 5.9% 5.3% 5.9% 6.0% 6.0% 6.3% 6.7%
Consumer, Cyclical 14% 6.6% 6.5% 5.9% 6.0% 5.9% 5.8% 6.2% 6.1% 6.3% 6.7%
Communications 21% 6.3% 6.2% 5.9% 6.1% 6.0% 6.2% 6.6% 6.5% 6.8% 7.9%
Basic Materials 6% 7.0% 7.1% 6.6% 7.1% 7.1% 6.8% 7.4% 8.4% 8.9% 10.4%
SECTOR YIELD
• Oil & more recently materials are at the centre of the HY sell of
Global Consumer
Global Consumption
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Consumption % GDP
CHINA Consumption % GDP
US Consumption % GDP
-
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
Consumption ($ bln)
US Consumption Chinese Consumption
Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital
• Chinese consumption is growing fast but has a long way to go before it can take the baton from the US consumer
US Household Wealth
0
50
100
150
200
250
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2014
US Median Home Sale Prices
Existing Home Sales Prices
Median Home Sales Price (Real)
Max Home Sales Price (Real)
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
2000
2000
2001
2002
2002
2003
2004
2004
2005
2006
2006
2007
2008
2008
2009
2010
2010
2011
2012
2012
2013
2014
2014
2015
Home Ownership %
• Median real US home sale prices are 17% below pre-GFC peak
Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital
Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital
US Household Wealth
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Home Sales
New Home Sales (mil) Existing Home Sales
0
1
2
3
4
5
Future Homes
New Home Starts (mil) Permits Issued (mil)
• Trend is good but well below pre-crisis levels
Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital
US Household Wealth
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
US BANK DELINQUENCY RATES
RESIDENTIAL MORT COMMERCIAL MORT CREDIT CARD OTHER CONSUMER C&I LOANS
• Residential mortgage debt is the only major type of US debt that hasn’t recovered to pre-GFC levels
Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital
Chinese Consumer
• China GDP/Capita growing at 16% p.a. (US = 2% p.a.) over last 10 years
• Urbanisation rate is still on 55% (OECD = 80%)
-
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
GDP per Capita
$GDP Per Capita (US) $GDP Per Capita (Japan)
$GDP Per Capita (Korea) $GDP Per Capita (China)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Chinese Urban Population
Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital
Chinese Consumer
-
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
China Old vs New (Revenue Growth)
China Consumer Discretionary China Consumer Discretionary (ex-Auto)
China Real Estate China Industrials
China Real Estate (Trend) Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital
China Old vs New (Revenue Growth)
Consumer
Discretionary
Consumer Discretionary
(ex-auto)
Real
Estate
Industrials
Annualised (10 Years) 19.3% 14.7% 19.2% 13.4%
2015 H1 3.7% 3.4% 92.9% -12.9%
2014 6.0% 3.6% 16.9% -4.5%
2013 14.1% 13.1% 21.2% 10.8%
Chinese Consumer
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Consumer Discretionary Revenue Growth
US vs China
US Consumer Discretionary US Consumer Discretionary (ex-Auto)
China Consumer Discretionary China Consumer Discretionary (ex-Auto)
Consumer Discretionary Consumer Discretionary (ex-auto)
US China US China
Annualised (10 Years) 3.1% 19.3% 1.7% 14.7%
2015 H1 3.6% 3.7% -1.4% 3.4%
2014 4.6% 6.0% 3.7% 3.6%
2013 5.8% 14.1% 5.0% 13.1%
Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital
Chinese Consumer
China Consumer Discretionary - SHCOMP vs China New Mega-Companies
(Revenue Growth)
Alibaba Ctrip Baidu Tencent
Consumer
Discretionary
Consumer
Discretionary
(ex-auto)
ANNUALISED 10Y
43% 74% 54% 19.3% 14.7%
H1 2015 35% 47% 36% 20% 3.7% 3.4%
2014 44% 35% 54% 31% 6.0% 3.6%
2013 59% 33% 43% 38% 14.1% 13.1%
Positioning
Asset Allocation Positioning
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Equity Fixed Income & Cash Real Estate Commodities
Asset Allocation
Range
Minimum
Current
RISK/RETURN UNIVERSE
HIGH
MEDIUM
LOW
2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% 12.5% 15.0% 17.5%
COLLECTIVE INVESTMENT SCHEMESRisk
Targeted return
WORLDWIDE
FLEXIBLE
EQUITY
SA EQUITY
MANAGED
FLEXIBLE INCOME
GLOBAL EQUITY
GLOBAL CAPITAL
PLUS
BCI UNIT TRUSTS
OFFSHORE
PRODUCTS
KEY
ASTORIA
This report and its contents are confidential, privileged and only for the information of the intended recipient. Anchor Capital (Pty) Ltd makes no
representations or warranties in respect of this report or its content and will not be liable for any loss or damage of any nature arising from this report, the
content thereof, your reliance thereon its unauthorised use or any electronic viruses associated therewith. This report is proprietary to Anchor Capital
(Pty) Ltd and you may not copy or distribute the report without the prior written consent of the authors.
© 2009-2015 Anchor Capital (Pty) Ltd. | An authorised Financial Services Provider Reg No # 2009/002925/07 | FSP No # 39834
Thank you

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Anchor capital senate group 6th november 2015 - final

  • 1. © 2009-2015 Anchor Capital (Pty) Ltd. | An authorised Financial Services Provider Reg No # 2009/002925/07 | FSP No # 39834
  • 2. Who is Anchor Capital • Founded 2011 • Part of listed Anchor Group (R2.2bn market cap) • Over R20bn of assets under management and administration – • CIS and Segregated Portfolio`s • Local and offshore investment team (20 investment professionals) • 3 year track record • Offices in Sandton, Durban, Pretoria, Cape Town, London • 70 degreed staff (7 CA(SA)’s, 12 CFA’s/CFA candidates)
  • 3. David Gibb  BSc Med (UCT), CA (SA), CFA  Liberty Asset Management (later Stanlib) 1994 to 2008  Head of equity research at Stanlib  Track record as unit trust manager at Stanlib  Winner 2008  Micropal Award – 5 year performance Domestic EQ Industrial  Winner 2005  Raging Bull Awards - 3 year performance Global Technology  S&P Fund Award - 3 year performance Global Technology  Winner 2003  S&P Fund Award – 1 year performance Global Technology  Joined Anchor Capital in July 2012  Manager of the Anchor BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund
  • 4. Peter Little  B.Com Accounting degree & CFA charter holder  18 years financial markets experience  Worked for a number for Global Investment banks in London (incl JPM, Barclays Capital, RBS & Credit Suisse) predominantly in structuring and derivatives roles  Transferred to New York in 2005 with Credit Suisse Asset Management to manage various hedge fund products  Most recent role before returning to SA was Head of Fund Management for Liquid Systematic Hedge Funds for Credit Suisse in NY  Joined Anchor Capital towards the end of 2013  Manager of the Anchor Global Capital Plus Fund
  • 5. © 2009-2015 Anchor Capital (Pty) Ltd. | An authorised Financial Services Provider Reg No # 2009/002925/07 | FSP No # 39834 David Gibb – Global Investment Opportunities
  • 6. © 2009-2015 Anchor Capital (Pty) Ltd. | An authorised Financial Services Provider Reg No # 2009/002925/07 | FSP No # 39834 US markets and China
  • 7. How expensive are US stock markets?
  • 8. US corporate earnings well above trend
  • 9. Cyclically adjusted PE (CAPE) is very high versus history
  • 10. Chinese economy is in transition
  • 11. .....causing turmoil in steel markets Source: Financial Times 28 Oct ‘15
  • 12. Commodities – back to where we started Source: Financial Times 30 Oct ‘15
  • 14. Investment philosophy • Investment in companies with a durable competitive advantage when? down in the business cycle made a mistake that can be fixed growth is underestimated  Invest for the long term
  • 15. US banks – Price to book values have been hit hard 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 P/tBV Source: Bloomberg – S&P Bank Index S5BankX Price to Tangible book value
  • 16. Large banks continue to gain market share in the US Share of Assets by Bank Type Source: FDIC Statistics; The State and Fate of Community Banking, Lux & Greene
  • 17. US banking net interest margin (NIM) at multi-decade lows % Source: Federal Reserve 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 1985 1995 2005 2015
  • 18. US banks US Bancorp JP Morgan Chase Wells Fargo
  • 19. Adam Jones – Welsh rugby player
  • 20. UK car insurance premiums have turned up Source: Confused.com car insurance price index
  • 21. Admiral is just a top-class car insurer Source: Admiral H1 2015 results
  • 22. Other opportunities General Electric Yum Brands Starbucks Pandora Alphabet (Google) Glaxo
  • 23. Anchor BCI Worldwide Flexible Fund Performance since inception 13 May 2013 to 31 October 2015 Unit trust ranking 5/30 1 yr 6/29 2 yrs
  • 24. Peter Little – Opportunities within global asset allocation
  • 25. Asset Allocation Positioning • Low potential for absolute returns in fixed income • Commodities creating tail risk rather than offering diversification 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Equity Fixed Income & Cash Real Estate Commodities Asset Allocation Range Minimum Current
  • 27. Global Quantitative Easing • G4 Central bank balance sheets have expanded by ~ $ 6.5 trl post-GFC • G4 Central banks have doubled their share of bond market ownership - 2 4 6 8 10 12 Central Bank Balance Sheets (USD trl) UNITED STATES ($) JAPAN ($) UK ($) EU ($) 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Central Banks’ Ownership of Bonds G4 Balance Sheets (USD) Global Bond Markets % Owned (RHS) Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital Source: Bloomberg, BIS, Anchor Capital
  • 28. Low Yields & Inflation Expectations • With low yields small movements in the yield curve can easily generate negative total returns in LT treasuries - 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 - 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 US Rates & Inflation US 10 Year Yield US CPI (RHS) 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% US CPI expectation Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital
  • 29. Fixed Income Diversification Benefits -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Correlations S&P 500 v US 10Y Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital
  • 30. Fixed Income Opportunities - 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 - 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 Barclays High Yield Bond Index SPREAD (RHS) PRICE Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital
  • 31. Fixed Income Opportunities Sector % End Wgt Tot Rtn 1M Tot Rtn 2M Tot Rtn QTD Tot Rtn 6M Tot Rtn YTD Tot Rtn 1Y Tot Rtn 2Y Tot Rtn 3Y SPDR BARCLAYS HIGH YIELD BOND ETF 100% -3% -5% -6% -6% -4% -5% 2% 8% Communications 21% -4% -5% -4% -6% -3% -2% 6% 12% Consumer, Non-cyclical 17% -2% -2% -1% -1% 2% 4% 12% 19% Energy 14% -6% -13% -18% -19% -17% -27% -22% -19% Consumer, Cyclical 14% -2% -2% -1% -1% 1% 3% 8% 16% Financial 9% -1% -1% -1% -1% 2% 3% 11% 18% Industrial 8% -2% -4% -4% -4% -1% -1% 6% 12% Technology 6% 0% -1% -1% -2% 1% 2% 12% 21% Basic Materials 6% -5% -7% -12% -13% -11% -14% -8% -2% Utilities 3% -3% -4% -4% -4% -1% 1% 8% 11% Diversified 1% -2% -2% -1% 1% 7% 3% 15% 26% SECTOR TOTAL RETURN Name % End Wgt Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 SPDR BARCLAYS HIGH YIELD BOND ETF 100% 6.8% 6.8% 6.3% 6.6% 6.3% 6.4% 6.8% 7.0% 7.5% 8.3% Utilities 3% 5.9% 5.9% 5.6% 5.8% 5.7% 5.6% 6.0% 6.1% 6.6% 7.3% Technology 6% 6.5% 6.4% 6.1% 6.1% 6.2% 6.3% 6.7% 6.8% 6.8% 7.1% Industrial 8% 6.7% 6.7% 6.2% 6.4% 6.4% 6.2% 6.7% 6.8% 7.4% 8.0% Financial 9% 5.3% 5.1% 4.8% 5.1% 5.1% 5.0% 5.4% 5.4% 5.6% 5.9% Energy 14% 9.4% 9.6% 8.6% 9.4% 8.5% 8.6% 9.1% 10.3% 12.3% 13.6% Diversified 1% 8.7% 8.5% 7.0% 7.1% 6.9% 6.8% 7.2% 6.9% 7.1% 7.7% Consumer, Non-cyclical 17% 6.2% 6.0% 5.8% 5.9% 5.3% 5.9% 6.0% 6.0% 6.3% 6.7% Consumer, Cyclical 14% 6.6% 6.5% 5.9% 6.0% 5.9% 5.8% 6.2% 6.1% 6.3% 6.7% Communications 21% 6.3% 6.2% 5.9% 6.1% 6.0% 6.2% 6.6% 6.5% 6.8% 7.9% Basic Materials 6% 7.0% 7.1% 6.6% 7.1% 7.1% 6.8% 7.4% 8.4% 8.9% 10.4% SECTOR YIELD • Oil & more recently materials are at the centre of the HY sell of
  • 33. Global Consumption 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Consumption % GDP CHINA Consumption % GDP US Consumption % GDP - 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000 Consumption ($ bln) US Consumption Chinese Consumption Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital • Chinese consumption is growing fast but has a long way to go before it can take the baton from the US consumer
  • 34. US Household Wealth 0 50 100 150 200 250 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014 US Median Home Sale Prices Existing Home Sales Prices Median Home Sales Price (Real) Max Home Sales Price (Real) 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 2000 2000 2001 2002 2002 2003 2004 2004 2005 2006 2006 2007 2008 2008 2009 2010 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014 2014 2015 Home Ownership % • Median real US home sale prices are 17% below pre-GFC peak Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital
  • 35. US Household Wealth 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Home Sales New Home Sales (mil) Existing Home Sales 0 1 2 3 4 5 Future Homes New Home Starts (mil) Permits Issued (mil) • Trend is good but well below pre-crisis levels Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital
  • 36. US Household Wealth 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 US BANK DELINQUENCY RATES RESIDENTIAL MORT COMMERCIAL MORT CREDIT CARD OTHER CONSUMER C&I LOANS • Residential mortgage debt is the only major type of US debt that hasn’t recovered to pre-GFC levels Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital
  • 37. Chinese Consumer • China GDP/Capita growing at 16% p.a. (US = 2% p.a.) over last 10 years • Urbanisation rate is still on 55% (OECD = 80%) - 10 000 20 000 30 000 40 000 50 000 60 000 GDP per Capita $GDP Per Capita (US) $GDP Per Capita (Japan) $GDP Per Capita (Korea) $GDP Per Capita (China) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Chinese Urban Population Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital
  • 38. Chinese Consumer - 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 China Old vs New (Revenue Growth) China Consumer Discretionary China Consumer Discretionary (ex-Auto) China Real Estate China Industrials China Real Estate (Trend) Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital China Old vs New (Revenue Growth) Consumer Discretionary Consumer Discretionary (ex-auto) Real Estate Industrials Annualised (10 Years) 19.3% 14.7% 19.2% 13.4% 2015 H1 3.7% 3.4% 92.9% -12.9% 2014 6.0% 3.6% 16.9% -4.5% 2013 14.1% 13.1% 21.2% 10.8%
  • 39. Chinese Consumer 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Consumer Discretionary Revenue Growth US vs China US Consumer Discretionary US Consumer Discretionary (ex-Auto) China Consumer Discretionary China Consumer Discretionary (ex-Auto) Consumer Discretionary Consumer Discretionary (ex-auto) US China US China Annualised (10 Years) 3.1% 19.3% 1.7% 14.7% 2015 H1 3.6% 3.7% -1.4% 3.4% 2014 4.6% 6.0% 3.7% 3.6% 2013 5.8% 14.1% 5.0% 13.1% Source: Bloomberg, Anchor Capital
  • 40. Chinese Consumer China Consumer Discretionary - SHCOMP vs China New Mega-Companies (Revenue Growth) Alibaba Ctrip Baidu Tencent Consumer Discretionary Consumer Discretionary (ex-auto) ANNUALISED 10Y 43% 74% 54% 19.3% 14.7% H1 2015 35% 47% 36% 20% 3.7% 3.4% 2014 44% 35% 54% 31% 6.0% 3.6% 2013 59% 33% 43% 38% 14.1% 13.1%
  • 42. Asset Allocation Positioning 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Equity Fixed Income & Cash Real Estate Commodities Asset Allocation Range Minimum Current
  • 43. RISK/RETURN UNIVERSE HIGH MEDIUM LOW 2.5% 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% 12.5% 15.0% 17.5% COLLECTIVE INVESTMENT SCHEMESRisk Targeted return WORLDWIDE FLEXIBLE EQUITY SA EQUITY MANAGED FLEXIBLE INCOME GLOBAL EQUITY GLOBAL CAPITAL PLUS BCI UNIT TRUSTS OFFSHORE PRODUCTS KEY ASTORIA
  • 44. This report and its contents are confidential, privileged and only for the information of the intended recipient. Anchor Capital (Pty) Ltd makes no representations or warranties in respect of this report or its content and will not be liable for any loss or damage of any nature arising from this report, the content thereof, your reliance thereon its unauthorised use or any electronic viruses associated therewith. This report is proprietary to Anchor Capital (Pty) Ltd and you may not copy or distribute the report without the prior written consent of the authors. © 2009-2015 Anchor Capital (Pty) Ltd. | An authorised Financial Services Provider Reg No # 2009/002925/07 | FSP No # 39834 Thank you