The environmental risks from DMH-11 mustard, which is being pushed for commercial release in India.

1. Environmental Risks of
DMH-11 & Unscientific
Biosafety Trials
Dr. Debal Deb
Centre for Interdisciplinary Studies
http://cintdis.org
(Member, Agro-Biodiversity Expert Committee, National
Biodiversity Authority)

2. Presentation will cover…
• 1. Population Genetics of MS (Male Sterility) Trait
2. Spread of HT (Herbicide Tolerance) Trait
3. Breakdown of MS
4. Methodological Flaws in Trials
5. False Assumption about Cross Pollination &
Crossability between Indian Mustard and Relatives

3. 1
The Risk of
barnase Male Sterility Transmission
to Non-GM Mustard Populations

4. The Transmissibility of
Transgenic Male Sterility Trait
1. The barnase transgene-induced MS is capable of
transmission to non-GM plants.
2. Gametes from GM MS plants will contain barnase
gene.
3. After outcrossing, the recipient non-GM plant will
bear seeds with hemizygous Barnase/B–
combinations.
• B is Barnase; B– is absence of Barnase
• β is Barstar; β– is absence of Barstar

5. VarunaBn 3.6 EH-2 modbs 2.99
B / B–
β– / β–
B– / B–
β / β
B / B–
β / β–
DMH-11 DMH-11
B / B
β / β
B /B–
β / β
B / B
β / β–
B / B
β–/β–
MS
B / B–
β / β–
B / B–
β– / β–
B / B–
β / β–
MS
B–/B–
β / β
B–/B–
β / β–
B–/
B–
β–/β–
2 2
4
2 2
DMH-11 DMH-11 18.76 % will be MS in F1
25% will be MS in F2

6. Offspring
Genotype
Phenotype Genotype
Frequency
Prob.
F1
BB ββ p1
2 1/16
BB ββ– 2 p1p2
1/8
BB β–β– Male Sterile p2
2 1/16
BB– ββ 2 p1p3
1/8
BB– ββ– 2 ( p1p4 +
p2p3 )
1/4
BB– β–β– Male Sterile 2 p2p4
1/8
B–B– ββ p3
2 1/8
B–B– ββ– 2 p3p4
1/16
B–B– β–β– p4
2 1/16
Trait Haplotype Frequency
GM B β p1
B β– p2
B– β p3
Non-
GM
B– β– p4
Total Male Sterile % = 18.76

7. Genotype B B B B– B– B–
Frequency p2 2 p (1 – p) (1 – p)2
Fitness w11 w12 w22
Regardless of the Presence of barstar (β) Gene, the Frequency of barnase (B)
Gene will Continue to Increase Every Generation.
We May Assume, Realistically, w11> w12 > w22 because Farmers will preferentially
Grow Plants containing barnase gene – If Not for Herbicide Tolerance.
After Selfing in the DMH-11 Population, the B allele Frequency in the Next Generation
will be
p' = [p2 w11 + p (1 – p) w12] / [p2 w11 + p (1 – p) w12 + p2 w22]
Thus, the Difference in Allele Frequency between p’ and p is:
Δp = [p2 (1 – p) (w11 – w12) + p (1 – p)2 (w12 – w22) / H
where H = p2 w11 + 2 p (1 – p) w12 + (1 – p)2 w22
Barnase Gene Frequency : Will It Increase Over Generations?

8. Selection and Fitness Advantage
in GM Mustard
• Farmers Adoption of Glufosinate Herbicides, will Entail
Fitness Disadvantage for All Bar Gene-Deficient
Genotypes (incl. Non-GM Genotypes), and Advantage for
All barnase-Bar-barstar Containing Plants.
• In Absence of Herbicides, Fitness of the GM Mustard is
Likely to be Greater than Non-GM Mustard, Primarily Due
to promised/ hyped Yield Benefit.
• Even a minor advantage weightage will lead to a
monotonic increase in the barnase gene in the population.

9. Estimation of Frequency of barnase Allele, with 3 Sets of Simulated
Fitness Values:
W11 w12 w22
Ser. 1 1 1 0.8
Ser. 2 1 1 0.5
Ser. 3 1 0.6 0.5
The DU Report’s
Assertion that
The frequency of the
"new allele" will
remain same
generation after
generation –
is WRONG.

10. The Monotonic Increase in barnase Transgene
Frequency in Mustard Population:
What Does it Imply?
• Male Sterile Trait will Spread in the Population
through Outcrossing with Non-GM Mustard Sub-
Populations
• With an Increasing Frequency of the Gene (due to
Greater Farm Level Selection Advantage), More
and More Proportions of the Non-GM Mustard
Crop Population will Become MS, Leading to Crop
Loss.

11. Even If DMH-11 Seeds are Replaced Every
Year, the Out-crossing of the First DMH-11
plants with NON-GM Mustard in & around the
DMH-11 Field will Spread the barnase, Bar and
barstar Genes Every Subsequent Generation.
After the First Year of Out-Crossing with Non-GM
Mustard, the F1 Progeny will contain 25% MS.

12. B / B–
β / β–
B– / B–
β–/ β–
B / B–
β / β–
B–/ B–
β– / β–
B / B–
β–/ β–
B–/ B–
β / β–
MS
DMH-11 Plant Non-GM Plant
DMH-11
25% MS
F1
Outcrossing with Non-GM Mustard will Produce 25% MS Offspring
Application of Herbicides will Eliminate 25% of the F1 Population.
In the Absence of Herbicide Spray, Panmyxis in F1 will Produce Hybrids
with 14.29% MS Phenotype in F2
WIldtype

13. F1 Gamete Weightage
Gametes from genotype [B B– β β–] : B β 1
B β– 1
B–β 1
B– β– 1
Gametes from genotype (MS) [B B– β– β–] : B β– 2 – 1 (No pollen)
B– β– 2 – 1 (No pollen)
Gametes from genotype [B– B– β β–] : B– β 2
B–β– 2
Gametes from genotype [B– B– β–β–]: B– β– 4
B β : B β– : B–β : B– β–
1 2 3 8
F2 Generation (after Outcrossing with non-GM Crop B– β–)
[BB– ββ–] [BB– β–β–] [B–B–ββ–] [B–B– β–β–]
1 2 3 8

14. F2 PROGENY FROM F1 (DMH-11 X Non-GM)
PROGENY
B / B–
β / β–
B– / B–
β– / β–
B– / B–
β / β–
B / B–
β– / β–
Gametes from F1 Progeny:
B B B– B–
β β– β β–
1 : 2 : 3 : 8
1 2 3 8
F2
GENOTYPES
MS 1/7 = 14.286%
B / B–
β–/ β–
This MS plant
Will NOT
produce Pollen
B
β–
B–
β–
X

15. Yield Losses for Farmers will Ensue from:
• Increasing Male Sterility, Leading to Proportionate
Loss of Seeds
• When F2 Seeds are Used, Loss of Hybrid Vigour –
Reducing Crop Yield
• In the DMH-11 Crop, Glufosinate Spray will Cause
6.25% yield loss in F1 progeny.
• In Case of DMH-11 Outcrossing with A Non-GM
Mustard, Glufosinate Application will Cause 25%
Loss in F1 and 57.14% Loss in the F2 progeny

16. Precision? Predictability?
Summary Report (p. 9) states Variable Expression of bar
gene
- “from location to location
- from plant to plant in the same line
- from leaf to leaf in the Same Plant”
If this Unpredictability and Uncertainty Prevails Even in
the Plants HOMOZYGOUS for bar gene,
* What is the Level of Certainty of Expression of the Other
Transgenes?
* How Truthful is the Promise to Farmers of the Crop’s
Advantage?

17. 2
Herbicide Use:
Is There Scope for Complacency?

18. Assumption:
“Farmers Don’t Use Herbicides in Mustard Cultivation”
• False Assumption in the Case of (Eastern) Indian Farmers.
Herbicides used at Harvest extensively – not to eradicate
weeds.
HAVE REGULATORS STUDIED:
• Herbicide Tolerant Superweeds?
• Health Impacts?
• Impact of Bar gene Flow to Non-GM Mustard and Related
Species (esp. B. rapa and B. napus)?
• The Glufosinate Herbicide Employed in Developing the New
Mustard Hybrid is a Trojan Horse for Marketing and
Cultivation of the Herbicide as Well as the Hybrid Seeds.

19. 3
Male Sterility Breakdown
in Varuna barnase

20. • The Central Compliance Committee field visits also note
this down at various trial locations
• Non-standardisation of test protocol an issue as seen in
reports
• Lies in summing up : “No sterility breakdown observed in
extensive backcrosses and numerous field observations”;
“Pollination behaviour of all the lines remained true to
their expected characteristics.”
• How much of the Yield of Varuna-Bn line is due to Male
Sterility Breakdown and how much due to Cross
Pollination?

21. • Despite Reporting “No Male Sterility Breakdown”, Field
Trials in Ludhiana shows Male Sterility Breaking Down
to the Extent of 7.43% in MS Plants in Varunabarnase.
• Calculation:
In 10 Sample Plants,
548 Pods, with 12 seeds/Pod in Fertile Plants
= total 6576 Seeds
176 Pods, with 3 seeds/Pod in MS Plants
= total 528 Seeds
Thus, Proportion of MS breakdown, as indicated by Seeds
produced in MS Plants
= 100 [528/ (528+6576)] = 7.43%

22. 4
Unreliable Methodology
and
Spurious Data

23. • The GM Crop Developers State with Reference to Pollen Flow That:
1. “The Maximum Distance of Bee Pollination is 20 m.”
Absurd. Bee Pollination Distance Can Exceed 6 km.
[see Pasquet et al. 2008. PNAS 105: 13456-61]
Specifically for Mustard, “gene flow was detected at the 800
m limit of the experiment.” [Beckle et al. 2003. Ecol. Appl. 13: 1276-1294 ]
2. "Farmers who want to keep their own [sic] seed are advised to
collect seed from the centre of the field."
It's Irrational to Assume that Bees will Visit only the
Peripheral Plants, and Plants at the Centre of the Field Only will
Self-Pollinate!

24. Test for Aggressiveness and Weediness
Record of
• Plant Height
• Leaf Traits
• Floral Traits
are Irrelevant and Misleading.
◆ WHERE ARE DATA OF POSSIBLE COMPETITIVE
ADVANTAGE OF GM MUSTARD
- With Herbicide Exposure?
- When Outcrossed with Non-GM Cultivars?
VOLUNTEER BEHAVIOUR OVER A FEW SEASONS
NOT STUDIED

25. Pod Shattering
• This trait not studied in any quantitative
fashion
• A very important trait for farmers
• More importantly, this trait is related to
biosafety risks (weediness, contamination of
non-GM)

26. Counts of Beneficial Insects
• Predators: Coccinelid Beetles, Lacewings, Syrphid Larvae
• Pollinators: Honeybees
• No Other Taxa are Considered in the Tests.
Mustard fields are habitats for
Odonates
Ants
Gryllids
Spiders
WHY NO EFFORT TO TEST EFFECTS OF GMO ON
THESE ARTHROPODS?

27. Periodic Observation Method:
Unreliable, with No Complementary Method
• For Aphids
- Suction Sampler; Drop Cloth
• For Beetle Adults
- Drop Cloth, Vacuum/ Suction, Sweep net, Pitfall trap,
Videography
• For Beetle Larvae
– Drop Cloth, Sweep Net, Pitfall trap
• For Honeybees (which species? Only one? Really?)
- Sweep Net; Soap bowl; Videography
• For Lacewings
- Sweep Net, Videography
Pedigo & Buntin 1993. Handbook of sampling methods for arthropods in agriculture;
Woltz & Landis 2014. J. Appl. Entomol. 138: 475–484

28. Counts of Insect Pests: An Ecologically Unfeasible Scenario
Trial Location
Mustard
Aphid
Painted
Bug
Leaf
Miner
Cabbage
Butterfly
Mustard
Sawfly
Termites
BRL-I,
1st Year
(2010-11)
Kumher ✓ Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
Alwar ✓ ✓ Nil Nil Nil Nil
SG nagar ✓ Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
BRL-II,
2nd Year
(2011-12)
Kumher ✓ Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
Alwar ✓ Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
SG nagar Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
BRL-III,
3rd Year
(2014-15)
Delhi ✓ Nil Nil Nil Nil
Nil
Bhatinda Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
Nil
Ludhiana Nil Nil Nil Nil Nil
Nil
Ref : 1) BRL Trial Reports

29. STATISTICS IN THE TRIAL:
INACCURATE & DECEITFUL
Predators Varuna-Barnase EH-2 Dmh-11
Coccinelids
(Grubs + Beetles)
60/70/80/90/100
/110/120 DAS
8.75 6.50 10.25
Chrysoperla
Larvae
Nil Nil Nil
Honey bee visits
per 5 minutes
13.1 15.56 19.44
Honey bee visits
per 10 minutes
26.94 31.94 36.63
Questions
Mean per
Replicates or per
Day of test?
ditto
ditto

30. A Lesson in Averaging (using Excel)
NOT CLEAR WHAT WAS CALCULATED HERE – TWO OF THE ABOVE ARE INVALID, IF USED

31. Doctored Report:
INSECT DATA (Rabi 2011)
Mustard
Aphid
All Other Prey COCCINELID
ABUNDANCE
Tables 8 A & 10 A 4.9 Nil Nil
Tables 8 B & 10 B 3.26 Nil 10.25
Tables 8 C & 10 C Nil Nil Nil
A Global Ecological Rule
* Low or No Predator in Presence of Prey is
Possible.
* When Prey Abundance is Low, 3 Times Higher
Predator Abundance is Ecologically Unfeasible.
- The Trial Report Boldly Defies This Rule !

32. Honey Bee Visitation Counts :
What Exactly was Counted?
A) Foraging Rate ➔ The No. of Flowers Probed by an
Individual Bee in X minutes
e.g. Honeybees: 9.2 Flowers/min; Beetles: 2.2/min
(Couvillon et al. 2015 Psyche, Article ID 134630)
B) Visitation Counts ➔ No. of Bees Observed per
Flower in X minutes
e.g. A. dorsata: 7/ Fl/ 5 min; A. florea: 1/ Fl/ 5 min.
(Balachandran et al. 2014 Curr. Sci.106: 1379-86)
C) Visitation-Abundance ➔ No. of Bees in a Patch of
Flowers in X minutes
e.g. 7.53 Bees/ 10 Flowers/ 5 min.
(Sivaram et al. 2013 Braz. Arch. Biol. Tech. 56: 365-70)
The Trial Reports: Incompetent Methodology: Untrustworthy.

33. Statistical Fallacy, Again!
Bee Visitation in 10 min is Not
Double that in 5 min in the Field!!
(– Unless The Bees are Tutored)
Predators Varuna-Barnase EH-2 DMH-11
Honey bee visits per
5 minutes
13.1 15.56 19.44
Honey bee visits per
10 minutes
26.94 31.94 36.63
At this rate, Honey Bee Visits to DMH-11 would Exceed 2332
if Observed for 10 hr !

34. Crossability Studies
• The Report Falsely Claims: “No Reports are
Available on Naturally Occurring Inter-specific
Crosses among Cultivated and Wild Species of
Brassica Cenospecies in India.”
• There is a Legion of Studies Reporting Natural
Crossability between B. juncea and B. napus,
(Oilseed Rape) and B. rapa (Yellow Sarson).
Bing et al. 1996; Gupta 1997; Choudhary & Joshi 1999; Ghosh
Dastidar & Varma 1999; Choudhary et al. 2002; Gupta et al. 2006
The Frequency of Hybridization between B. napus
oleifera and B. juncea in Nature is 5.91%.
Salisbury 2006

35. CURRENT TESTING & DATA RELATED
TO DMH-11 TRANSGENIC MUSTARD
COMPLETELY UNRELIABLE AND EVEN
DOCTORED FOR ANY DECISION-
MAKING
MANY RISKS REMAIN UNASSESSED

36. References
Beckle, HL, S.I. Warwick, H Nair, G. Seguin-Swartz 2003. Gene flow in commercial fields of herbicide-resistant canola (Brasscia
napus). Ecol. Appl. 13: 1276-94
Bing, D.j., R K Downey and G F W Rakow 1996. Hybridization among Brasscia napus, B. rapa and B. juncea and their two weedy
relatives B. nigra and Sinapois arvensis under open pollinated conditions in the field. Plant Breeding 115: 470-73.
Canadian Food Inspection Agency . Biology of Brassica juncea (Canola/ Mustard). Biology Document BIO2007-01: A companion
document to the Directive 94-08 (Dir94-08) Assessment Criteria for Determining Environmental safety of Plants and Novel Traits.
http://inspection.gc.ca
Chaudhary, B R and P. Joshi ,1999. Interspecific hybridization in Brassica. Proc. 10th Intl. Rapeseed Congr, Australia. Contribution
No. 510.
Chaudhary, B R, P. Joshi and S R Rao 2002. Cytogenetics of Brassica juncea X Brassica rapa hybrids and patters of variation in
the hybrid derivatives. Plant Br. 121: 292-96.
Ghosh Dastidar, N and N S Varma 1999. A study on intercrossing between transgenic B. juncea and other related species. Proc.
10th Intl. Rapeseed Congr, Australia. Contribution No 244.
Gupta, S.K. 1997. Production of interspecific and inergeneric hybrids in Brassica and Raphanus. Cruciferae Newslett. Eucarpia 19:
21-22.
Gupta, K, D. Prem, N I Nashaat and A Agnihotri 2006. Response of interspecific Brassica juncea/ B. rapa hybrids and their
advanced progenies to Albugo candida (white blister). Plant Pathol. 55: 679-89.
Pasquet, R S, A Peltier, M B Hufford, E Oudin, J Saulnier, L. Paul, J T Knudsen, H R Herren and P Gepts 2008. Long-distance
pollen flow assessment through evaluation of pollinator foraging range suggests transgene escape distances. PNAS 105: 13456-61.
Rakow, G. and D L Woods 1984. Outcrossing in rape and mustard under Saskatchewan prairie conditions. Can. J. Pl. Sci. 67: 147-51.
Salisbury, P. 2006. Biology of Brassica juncea and potential gene flow from B. juncea to other Brassicaceae species in Australia.
Faculty of Land and Food Resources, University of Melbourne. Miscellaneous Report PAS 2006/1.