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Equity Venture Capital
Part 1
Objective
Introduce the basic concepts of finance: risk,
return, and value, using venture equity capital
2
Scenario
ā€¢ Three entrepreneurs founded a software company,
LeanTech, last year
ā€¢ They have an alpha product currently and have nearly
depleted their savings and that of family and friends
ā€¢ LeanTech has no revenue and its fair value is unknown to
the entrepreneurs
ā€¢ The founders need to raise capital
3
Discussion
ā€¢ What is capital ?
o Its on the balance sheet
ā€¢ What assets does LeanTech have ?
4
Liabilities
Equity
Assets
roic > cost of capital
Capital
ā€˜Invested capitalā€™
Non-interest bearing
Interest bearing
Sources of Capital
ā€¢ Friends and family
ā€¢ Credit cards ?
ā€¢ Commercial banks
ā€¢ Private equity
o Angels
o Venture capital
o ā€˜Private equityā€™
o Crowd sourcing
5
ā€¢ Investment banks
ā€¢ Public equity
o Primary offering
o Secondary offering
ā€¢ Government programs
6
7
8
Return On Investment
Within five years, a portfolio company should be able to deliver five to ten
times the return on CenterPoint's investment, with CenterPoint retaining a
meaningful equity share of 10% or higher for its Limited Partners.
F = Pā‹…(1+r)N
P =
F
(1+r)N
1=
5
(1+r)5
r = 5
1
5
āˆ’1
r ā‰ˆ 38% / yr
1=
10
(1+r)5
r =10
1
5
āˆ’1
r ā‰ˆ 58% / yr
9
P
F
0 N
10
11
12
13
14
Discussion
ā€¢ What is equity?
ā€¢ How are present and future value related ?
o when there are no intermediate cash flows?
o when there are intermediate cash flows?
ā€¢ Note the present and future value factors and rates
ā€¢ What is Centerpointā€™s targeted rate of return on its
investment?
o Is there an equivalent cost to the founders ?
15
Discussion
ā€¢ So how much of the ownership and future earning
potential do the founders surrender ?
ā€¢ How is a VC firm organized?
16
Reference For Example
17
Students are advised to obtain this ā€˜background noteā€™ from HBSP
We will follow that methodology and example
Reference For Example
18
Venture valuation methods
Scenario
ā€¢ LeanTechā€™s incorporation documents (state law) declared 1,000,000
shares of common equity stock (issued and outstanding) divided among
the three founders (and maybe their friends and family)
ā€¢ LeanTech has no revenue and no debt
ā€¢ Its fair value is unknown to the founders
ā€¢ LeanTech needs $3.5M for costs and expenses over the next 5 years.
ā€¢ The founders forecast that LeanTech will attain annual net income of
$2.5M during the 6th year
o Net income is same as net profit and net margin
19
Forecast Income Statement
This forecast was done at the start of year 1 or time =0
Each year (column) is a forecast for the following year
These financial forecasts are expected values
20
Discussion
ā€¢ What is depreciation ?
ā€¢ Whatā€™s the difference between a cost and an expense ?
ā€¢ What is EBITDA ?
ā€¢ How is the economic value of an entity or security
determined?
o Discounted future value
o Relative, multiple, or ratio estimate
ā€¢ The Harvard teaching note uses a ratio of equity fair value to
net profit
o other ratios can be used including equity fair value to EBITDA or EBIT
21
Timeline
ā€¢ Whatā€™s the cash flow timeline?
22
time 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
investment
VC
exit
$2.5M in net
Income
Scenario
ā€¢ Companies in LeanTechā€™s industry have an average equity value of 15
times forecasted annual earnings i.e., the price earnings ratio, pe, is 15
ā€¢ A venture capitalist is interested in investing in LeanTech. That VC
targets an ROI (a rate) of 50% annually ā€“ for funds committed for 5 years
ā€¢ The VC becomes
o An equity investor and a shareholder
o A board member ?
ā€¢ The VC intends to sell its equity to the public (IPO) or via acquisition (M&A)
after 5 years
o This is VC ā€˜exit strategyā€™
23
pe=
EquityN
Net ProfitN+1
=
Share priceN
Earnings per shareN+1
24
25
Whatā€™s the value of Ford ?
Discussion
ā€¢ Whatā€™s the cash flow timeline?
26
time 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
investment
VC
exit
pe =
EN
E NPN+1
!" #$
=
E5
E[NP6]
Expected Value
27
000,500,37$15000,500,2$		peNP				E ===
The expected fair value of the equity after 5 years, E, is
The expected value of the VCā€™s share of the firm after 5 years, EVC, is
125,578,26$					%)501(000,500,3$				)k1(IE 5N
vc =+=+=
%875.70				
000,500,37$
125,578,26$
				
E
E
f vc
vc
=
=
=
The fraction of the firm that the VC will own after the investment, fVC, is
I:		 VC	investment	
NP: annual	net	profit	of	company	during	Nth	year
pe: price	to	earnings	ratio	(E/NP)	in	year	N+1
N: Number	of	years	to	exit
k: Annualized	VC	return	on	investment,	ROI
E:	 Equity	(and	total)	value	of	company	at	end	of	N	
years	(future	fair	value)	
fVC: Fraction	of	equity	owned	by	VC
EVC: Value	of	VC	equity	at	exit
Equity Allocation
28
fFDR = 1 ā€“ 70.875% = 29.125%
EFDR = $37,500,000 - $26,578,125 = $10,921,875
Pre-money period Post-money period pe E[NP]
VC Investment VC Exit
I = $3,500,000
EVC = $26,578,125
EFDR: Expected value of founderā€™s equity at VC exit
fFDR: Fraction of equity owned by founders
time in years t=0 t=N
beginning of end of Nth
first year (last) year
Equity Shares
29
How many shares must LeanTechā€™s board approve for LeanTechā€™s treasury (under
the CFO) to issue to the VC?
Ī”ns =
70.875%ā‹…1,000,000
(1āˆ’70.875%)
= 2,433,476
nspost = nspre + Ī”ns
=1,000,000+2,433,476
= 3,433,476
ns: number of shares
Dns: number of new shares issued to the VC
fvc =
Ī”ns
nspost
=
Ī”ns
(nspre + Ī”ns)
Ī”ns =
fvc ā‹…nspre
(1āˆ’ fvc )
nspost = nspre + Ī”ns
Ī”ns = fvc ā‹…nspost nspre nspost
Dns
Investment
Discussion
30
ā€¢ How many shares of common stock does Netflix have ?
o Authorized
o Issued
o Outstanding
o Treasury shares
= Issued - Outstanding
Discussion
ā€¢ What is preferred and common stock?
ā€¢ What is a firmā€™s additional paid in capital?
ā€¢ What are retained earnings?
o DRE = NP ā€“ DIV
ā€¢ What is the top job in a firmā€™s accounting department?
ā€¢ In its financing department?
ā€¢ To what position do they report?
31
Equity Value: Post-Money
32
I = Ī”nsā‹…ppost
ppost =
I
Ī”ns
=
$3,500,000
2,433,476
= $1.438
Epost = nspost ā‹…ppost
= 3,433,476ā‹…$1.438
= $4,938,272
p: Share price
E: Equity value
Dns: number of new shares issued
Equity Value: Pre-Money
33
Epre = Epost āˆ’I
= $4,938,272āˆ’ $3,500,000
= $1,438,272
ppre =
Epre
nspre
=
$1,438,272
1,000,000
= $1.438
pexit=
E
nspost
=
$37,500,000
3,433,476
=$10.922
p: Share price
E: Equity value
ns: number of equity shares
VC App
34
Discussion	
35
ā€¢ What was LeanTech value ā€˜pre-moneyā€™ ?
ā€¢ What was leanTech value ā€˜post-moneyā€™?
ā€¢ What is LeanTech expected to be worth at the end of
year 5?
ā€¢ What is the VCā€™s expected rate of return?
ā€¢ What percent of the company will the VC own to achieve
that expected rate of return?
ā€¢ What if LeanTechā€™s market value at the end of year 5 is
lower than expected? Higher than expected?
Homework 1
36
Prepare a markdown document for a single round of venture equity
capital financing.
Use the example data from class except that
ā€¢ The VC targets making 5x in 5 years
ā€¢ Firm value is estimated to be 18x its expected EBIT of $3.6M at the
end of year 5
All information should be described and output
All code should be echoed
Due in 1 week at the start of class

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Fx risk management
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Equity venture capital part 1

  • 2. Objective Introduce the basic concepts of finance: risk, return, and value, using venture equity capital 2
  • 3. Scenario ā€¢ Three entrepreneurs founded a software company, LeanTech, last year ā€¢ They have an alpha product currently and have nearly depleted their savings and that of family and friends ā€¢ LeanTech has no revenue and its fair value is unknown to the entrepreneurs ā€¢ The founders need to raise capital 3
  • 4. Discussion ā€¢ What is capital ? o Its on the balance sheet ā€¢ What assets does LeanTech have ? 4 Liabilities Equity Assets roic > cost of capital Capital ā€˜Invested capitalā€™ Non-interest bearing Interest bearing
  • 5. Sources of Capital ā€¢ Friends and family ā€¢ Credit cards ? ā€¢ Commercial banks ā€¢ Private equity o Angels o Venture capital o ā€˜Private equityā€™ o Crowd sourcing 5 ā€¢ Investment banks ā€¢ Public equity o Primary offering o Secondary offering ā€¢ Government programs
  • 6. 6
  • 7. 7
  • 8. 8 Return On Investment Within five years, a portfolio company should be able to deliver five to ten times the return on CenterPoint's investment, with CenterPoint retaining a meaningful equity share of 10% or higher for its Limited Partners. F = Pā‹…(1+r)N P = F (1+r)N 1= 5 (1+r)5 r = 5 1 5 āˆ’1 r ā‰ˆ 38% / yr 1= 10 (1+r)5 r =10 1 5 āˆ’1 r ā‰ˆ 58% / yr
  • 10. 10
  • 11. 11
  • 12. 12
  • 13. 13
  • 14. 14
  • 15. Discussion ā€¢ What is equity? ā€¢ How are present and future value related ? o when there are no intermediate cash flows? o when there are intermediate cash flows? ā€¢ Note the present and future value factors and rates ā€¢ What is Centerpointā€™s targeted rate of return on its investment? o Is there an equivalent cost to the founders ? 15
  • 16. Discussion ā€¢ So how much of the ownership and future earning potential do the founders surrender ? ā€¢ How is a VC firm organized? 16
  • 17. Reference For Example 17 Students are advised to obtain this ā€˜background noteā€™ from HBSP We will follow that methodology and example
  • 18. Reference For Example 18 Venture valuation methods
  • 19. Scenario ā€¢ LeanTechā€™s incorporation documents (state law) declared 1,000,000 shares of common equity stock (issued and outstanding) divided among the three founders (and maybe their friends and family) ā€¢ LeanTech has no revenue and no debt ā€¢ Its fair value is unknown to the founders ā€¢ LeanTech needs $3.5M for costs and expenses over the next 5 years. ā€¢ The founders forecast that LeanTech will attain annual net income of $2.5M during the 6th year o Net income is same as net profit and net margin 19
  • 20. Forecast Income Statement This forecast was done at the start of year 1 or time =0 Each year (column) is a forecast for the following year These financial forecasts are expected values 20
  • 21. Discussion ā€¢ What is depreciation ? ā€¢ Whatā€™s the difference between a cost and an expense ? ā€¢ What is EBITDA ? ā€¢ How is the economic value of an entity or security determined? o Discounted future value o Relative, multiple, or ratio estimate ā€¢ The Harvard teaching note uses a ratio of equity fair value to net profit o other ratios can be used including equity fair value to EBITDA or EBIT 21
  • 22. Timeline ā€¢ Whatā€™s the cash flow timeline? 22 time 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 investment VC exit $2.5M in net Income
  • 23. Scenario ā€¢ Companies in LeanTechā€™s industry have an average equity value of 15 times forecasted annual earnings i.e., the price earnings ratio, pe, is 15 ā€¢ A venture capitalist is interested in investing in LeanTech. That VC targets an ROI (a rate) of 50% annually ā€“ for funds committed for 5 years ā€¢ The VC becomes o An equity investor and a shareholder o A board member ? ā€¢ The VC intends to sell its equity to the public (IPO) or via acquisition (M&A) after 5 years o This is VC ā€˜exit strategyā€™ 23 pe= EquityN Net ProfitN+1 = Share priceN Earnings per shareN+1
  • 24. 24
  • 26. Discussion ā€¢ Whatā€™s the cash flow timeline? 26 time 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 investment VC exit pe = EN E NPN+1 !" #$ = E5 E[NP6]
  • 27. Expected Value 27 000,500,37$15000,500,2$ peNP E === The expected fair value of the equity after 5 years, E, is The expected value of the VCā€™s share of the firm after 5 years, EVC, is 125,578,26$ %)501(000,500,3$ )k1(IE 5N vc =+=+= %875.70 000,500,37$ 125,578,26$ E E f vc vc = = = The fraction of the firm that the VC will own after the investment, fVC, is I: VC investment NP: annual net profit of company during Nth year pe: price to earnings ratio (E/NP) in year N+1 N: Number of years to exit k: Annualized VC return on investment, ROI E: Equity (and total) value of company at end of N years (future fair value) fVC: Fraction of equity owned by VC EVC: Value of VC equity at exit
  • 28. Equity Allocation 28 fFDR = 1 ā€“ 70.875% = 29.125% EFDR = $37,500,000 - $26,578,125 = $10,921,875 Pre-money period Post-money period pe E[NP] VC Investment VC Exit I = $3,500,000 EVC = $26,578,125 EFDR: Expected value of founderā€™s equity at VC exit fFDR: Fraction of equity owned by founders time in years t=0 t=N beginning of end of Nth first year (last) year
  • 29. Equity Shares 29 How many shares must LeanTechā€™s board approve for LeanTechā€™s treasury (under the CFO) to issue to the VC? Ī”ns = 70.875%ā‹…1,000,000 (1āˆ’70.875%) = 2,433,476 nspost = nspre + Ī”ns =1,000,000+2,433,476 = 3,433,476 ns: number of shares Dns: number of new shares issued to the VC fvc = Ī”ns nspost = Ī”ns (nspre + Ī”ns) Ī”ns = fvc ā‹…nspre (1āˆ’ fvc ) nspost = nspre + Ī”ns Ī”ns = fvc ā‹…nspost nspre nspost Dns Investment
  • 30. Discussion 30 ā€¢ How many shares of common stock does Netflix have ? o Authorized o Issued o Outstanding o Treasury shares = Issued - Outstanding
  • 31. Discussion ā€¢ What is preferred and common stock? ā€¢ What is a firmā€™s additional paid in capital? ā€¢ What are retained earnings? o DRE = NP ā€“ DIV ā€¢ What is the top job in a firmā€™s accounting department? ā€¢ In its financing department? ā€¢ To what position do they report? 31
  • 32. Equity Value: Post-Money 32 I = Ī”nsā‹…ppost ppost = I Ī”ns = $3,500,000 2,433,476 = $1.438 Epost = nspost ā‹…ppost = 3,433,476ā‹…$1.438 = $4,938,272 p: Share price E: Equity value Dns: number of new shares issued
  • 33. Equity Value: Pre-Money 33 Epre = Epost āˆ’I = $4,938,272āˆ’ $3,500,000 = $1,438,272 ppre = Epre nspre = $1,438,272 1,000,000 = $1.438 pexit= E nspost = $37,500,000 3,433,476 =$10.922 p: Share price E: Equity value ns: number of equity shares
  • 35. Discussion 35 ā€¢ What was LeanTech value ā€˜pre-moneyā€™ ? ā€¢ What was leanTech value ā€˜post-moneyā€™? ā€¢ What is LeanTech expected to be worth at the end of year 5? ā€¢ What is the VCā€™s expected rate of return? ā€¢ What percent of the company will the VC own to achieve that expected rate of return? ā€¢ What if LeanTechā€™s market value at the end of year 5 is lower than expected? Higher than expected?
  • 36. Homework 1 36 Prepare a markdown document for a single round of venture equity capital financing. Use the example data from class except that ā€¢ The VC targets making 5x in 5 years ā€¢ Firm value is estimated to be 18x its expected EBIT of $3.6M at the end of year 5 All information should be described and output All code should be echoed Due in 1 week at the start of class

Editor's Notes

  1. Banks make collateralized loans, Short term debt on your balance sheet You want an equity investment Privet offering or public offering Secondary market Capital ? Claim on the company for which a return is expected Accounts buyable Loan Bond Equity
  2. This extended example is completely based on the Harvard Teaching Note from William Sahlman. Expect is prob weighted net profit outcome
  3. Your noninterest bearing liabilities are current had better be supporting current assets Equity requires a return as does IBL Market value of capital Book value, not market, or fair value (from a DCF) the market value can fluctuate from fair over short time periods. If you flip a fair coin indefinitely, what is the fair value? Can
  4. The founders Credit cards ā€“ gotta make a monthly payment
  5. Grammar not good Remain shareholders ā€“ recover all of their investment
  6. This extended example is completely based on the Harvard Teaching Note from William Sahlman. Expect is prob weighted net profit outcome
  7. Profit, margin, income, earnings all as accrual ā€¦ Could just have Earnings on bottom line But its not obvious from this table. For that we need a cash flow statement, but not necessary to get started here. You pay tax based on what amont? Exoense is often SG&A and R&D
  8. Market value, not book But pe can be derived as a simplification of DCF of dividends
  9. Current equity divided by expected net profit Technically the prevent value of the net income, but usually no discounting within a year Over next year but recorded at the end of next year Annual income is typical, but quarterly might be better during start up Some items might be paid in cash or cash overtime, but accrual costing requires that the cost be recognized as its value is realized ā€“ matching E is equity, e is earnings per share Company can sell treasury stock or create more shares
  10. Market value, not book
  11. After crunching some numbers, he believes that Uber's true valuation is actually south of $US30 billion ($39 billion), less than half of the $US62.5 billion ($81.7 billion) it was pegged at in its most recent round of funding. Read more: http://www.afr.com/business/transport/automobile/ubers-valuation-has-peaked-says-aswath-damodaran-20160817-gqv4h5#ixzz4HuH8YCMO Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook
  12. Current equity divided by expected net profit Over next year but recorded at the end of next year Annual limoing is typical, but quarterly might be better during start up Some items might be paid in cash or cash overtime, but accrual costing requires that the cost be recognized as its value is realized ā€“ matching E is equity, e is earnings per share And E is expected value
  13. Value = equity here, no debt Remember E now based on expected earning (forecast)
  14. The VC exit price jumps from the post money price due to compounding of the 3.5M at 50% annually.
  15. Equity shares are claims on future earnings and cash flows incouding thise from sale of company