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ED411 | 2018 | Breakout Session
The document discusses disruption in the Columbus region from automation and outlines strategies to sustain economic momentum. Key points include: - Automation could threaten tens of thousands of jobs in industries like automotive, manufacturing, e-commerce, finance and insurance. - The Columbus region has unrealized innovation capacity as seen in strong entrepreneurial performance, vehicles for innovation like universities and research institutions, but room for growth in areas like R&D expenditures, patent production, and venture capital funding. - Connectivity must increase through more direct international flights, growing export activity, and attracting more foreign direct investment to integrate the region globally.
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ED411 | 2018 | Breakout Session
- 1. BREAKOUT SESSIONS |12.7.2018
- 2. COLUMBUS REGIONAL NARRATIVES Disruption iscoming Our region has unrealized innovation capacity Connectivity must Increase Sustaining economic momentum is critical
- 3. Disruption is coming. (Or,it’s already here.) (or it’s already here) DISRUPTION IS COMING
- 4. Automation couldthreaten tens of thousands of jobs in several of the Columbus Region’s leading industries. The most susceptible occupations include: Automotive & Transportation and Manufacturing E-Commerce & Logistics Finance & Insurance AUTOMATION ADVANCES Source: Avalanche Consulting / Pearson, Nesta & Oxford University / EMSI Occupation groups at greatest risk of decline through 2030 Occupation Description Regional Employment Other Transportation Workers 2,498 Motor Vehicle Operators 28,445 Material Moving Workers 46,350 Legal Support Workers 2,830 Other Office and Admin. Support Workers 28,002 Financial Specialists 24,106 Communications Equipment Operators 630 Rail Transportation Workers 85 Vehicle and Mobile Equipment Mechanics 10,800 Extraction Workers 256 Occupation Description Regional Employment Textile, Apparel and Furnishings Workers 1,806 Food Processing Workers 3,106 Plant and System Operators 1,511 Forest, Conservation and Logging Workers 71 Metal Workers and Plastic Workers 11,218 Woodworkers 777 Financial Clerks 24,299 Assemblers and Fabricators 15,026 Printing Workers 2,433 Other Production Occupations 17,065 TOTAL 221,313
- 5. LARGE EMPLOYERS Source: AvalancheConsulting / Us Census Bureau Largest % of employment by firms with 1000+ employees 1. Orlando, FL 2. Las Vegas, NV 3. Jacksonville, FL 4. Columbus, OH 5. Memphis, TN Employment by firms with 1,000+ Employees as % of Total, 2014 1ST QUINTILE 2ND QUINTILE MIDDLE QUINTILE 4TH QUINTILE 5th QUINTILE 60.4% 55.2% 41.9% COLUMBUS
- 6. YOUNG WORKFORCE Source: AvalancheConsulting / Us Census Bureau Greatest Share of Young Professionals 1. Austin, TX 2. Salt Lake City, UT 3. Denver, CO 4. San Jose, CA 5. Portland, OR % of Population Age 25-44, 2016 1ST QUINTILE 2ND QUINTILE MIDDLE QUINTILE 4TH QUINTILE 5th QUINTILE 32.7% 28.9% 23.5% COLUMBUS
- 7. 13.7% 8.2% 6.1% EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT Source: AvalancheConsulting / Us Census Bureau Greatest Share of Residents with Associate Degree 1. Buffalo, NY 2. Rochester, NY 3. Orlando, FL 4. Pittsburgh, PA 5. Jacksonville, FL % of Population Age 25-64 with Associate Degree 2016 1ST QUINTILE 2ND QUINTILE MIDDLE QUINTILE 4TH QUINTILE 5th QUINTILE COLUMBUS
- 8. WORKFORCE – ACRITICAL ENABLER TO ECONOMIC GROWTH Population 15-64, Indexed to 2007 90 92 94 96 98 100 102 104 106 108 110 112 114 116 118 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 U.S. Columbus Ohio Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Census, Moody’s
- 9. OUR REGION HAS UNREALIZEDINNOVATION CAPACITY
- 10. STRONG ENTREPRENEURIAL PERFORMANCE Thanks toa high rate of startup growth, the Columbus Region is increasingly recognized for its supportive entrepreneurial environment. Metro rankings for the Kauffman index of growth entrepreneurship Metro 2017 Rank 2016 Rank Washington, DC 1 1 Austin, TX 2 2 COLUMBUS, OH 3 4 Nashville, TN 4 5 Atlanta, GA 5 15 San Jose, CA 6 3 San Francisco, CA 7 8 Boston, MA 8 6 Minneapolis, MN 9 16 Indianapolis, IN 10 20 Source: Avalanche Consulting / Kauffman Foundation Columbus is a top metropolitan area for ENTREPRENEURIAL VITALITY. “ Kauffman Foundation, 2017
- 11. Wendy’s Smart Columbus Ohio University,DublinCardinal HealthTRC Nationwide Children’s VEHICLES FOR INNOVATION The Ohio State UniversityThe Point at Otterbein
- 12. R&D EXPENDITURES Source: AvalancheConsulting / National Science Foundation Greatest Academic R&D Expenditures (per capita) 1. Baltimore, MD 2. Tucson, AZ 3. San Jose, CA 4. Pittsburgh, PA 5. Birmingham, AL Academic R&D Expenditures per 1,000 Workers, 2016 1ST QUINTILE 2ND QUINTILE MIDDLE QUINTILE 4TH QUINTILE 5th QUINTILE $1,044 $394 $3 COLUMBUS
- 13. 2.2 0.8 PATENT PRODUCTION Source: AvalancheConsulting / Us Patent & Trade Office Greatest Number of Patents Produced (per capita) 1. San Jose, CA 2. Austin, TX 3. Raleigh, NC 4. Rochester, NY 5. Portland, OR Utility patents produced per 10,000 residents 2015 1ST QUINTILE 2ND QUINTILE MIDDLE QUINTILE 4TH QUINTILE 5th QUINTILE COLUMBUS
- 14. VENTURE CAPITAL Source: AvalancheConsulting / Pitchbook Greatest Venture Capital Funding (per capita) 1. San Jose, CA 2. Austin, TX 3. Denver, CO 4. Charlotte, NC 5. Cleveland, OH Per Capita Venture Capital Funding 1ST QUINTILE 2ND QUINTILE MIDDLE QUINTILE 4TH QUINTILE 5th QUINTILE COLUMBUS $66 $11
- 15.
- 16. 50 28 11 Global tradeand investment is lagging; relatively few companies are engaged in selling to global markets (exports) and foreign investment is limited. The majority of migrants to the region are from other communities in Ohio. International migration is modest. Unless the Columbus Region becomes more globally integrated, the number of direct flights will continue to trail competitors and regional brand awareness will remain less developed. DIRECT FLIGHTS Source: Avalanche Consulting / Individual Airport Flight Statistics COLUMBUS Availability of direct flights to 53 U.S. metropolitan regions with populations 1 million and greater 1ST QUINTILE 2ND QUINTILE MIDDLE QUINTILE 4TH QUINTILE 5th QUINTILE
- 17. 21.6% 8.2% 5.6% EXPORT ACTIVITY Source: AvalancheConsulting / Brookings Institution Highest Rate of Exports as Share of GDP 1. New Orleans, LA 2. Grand Rapids, MI 3. San Jose, CA 4. Portland, OR 5. Louisville, KY Exports as a share of gross domestic product 1ST QUINTILE 2ND QUINTILE MIDDLE QUINTILE 4TH QUINTILE 5th QUINTILE COLUMBUS
- 18. 7.5% 4.8% 2.6% FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT LargestShare of Employment in Foreign-Owned Establishments 1. Providence, RI 2. San Jose, CA 3. Charlotte, NC 4. Indianapolis, IN 5. Hartford, CT Share of total private employment in foreign owned establishments, 2011 1ST QUINTILE 2ND QUINTILE MIDDLE QUINTILE 4TH QUINTILE 5th QUINTILE COLUMBUS Source: Avalanche Consulting / Brookings Institution
- 19. SUSTAINING ECONOMIC MOMENTUM ISCRITICAL.
- 20. NEW HIGH GROWTHENTERPRISES Columbus is the No. 1 rising city for startups. Forbes, 2018 Root “ Pillar
- 21. Big Lots Sofidel Amazon DataCenter Alliance Data Facebook Data Center 711 N. High Street BILLIONS INVESTED IN NEW FACILITIES Bridge Street
- 22. PREPARING FOR GROWTH CentralOhio is projected to grow by MORE THAN 1 MILLION PEOPLE and an additional 600,000 JOBS in the next several decade About 500,000 new housing units will be needed to accommodate projected population growth in Central Ohio
- 23.
- 24. REALIZE INNOVATION CAPACITY BUILDING BLOCKS FORSTRATEGY MAXIMIZE INDIVIDUAL OPPORTUNITY PREPARE COMMUNITIES FOR SUCCESS ATTRACT IMPACTFUL INVESTMENT PURSUE REGIONAL GROWTH
Editor's Notes
- #2 Good morning. I’m (local partner self introduction) What did you think of this morning? Any surprises? Any observations? In this session we’re going to share some of the data referenced in Kenny’s presentation Then it will be time for you to go to work After the presentation we’ll pose a question. Using the worksheet provided in your registration packet Take 5-7 minutes to write down your opinions about each question posed. Next, take 8-10 minutes to share your thoughts with your group. Identify 2-3 topics or themes that have consensus among your group. Share common themes with the room when the presenter invites feedback Volunteers (raise hands) are available to assist with questions along the way With that I’d like to introduce ______, Columbus 2020 ______, who will share the data
- #3 Earlier this morning Kenny spoke to these topics Global technological, economic and demographic forces will reshape communities across world in the years ahead Connectivity is important in a number of ways. Connecting and communicating with each other as we are doing today is an example Global forces create significant risks for existing market leaders, including companies in the Columbus Region Yet an evolving competitive environment will generate new opportunities for both established companies and burgeoning startups Innovation must be enabled and achieved on a larger scale and at a faster pace Leaning in with force and focus is necessary to build upon our success; we can’t afford to slide backwards. Complacency is not an option
- #4 Disruption is here
- #5 Automation is what you’re reading about on a daily basis, but we tried to quantify it. How is automation, AI, IoT, projected to impact our industries? The six occupations you see on the left employ over 87,000 workers in the Columbus region On the right, you see jobs related to those industries at greatest risk of decline over the next few decades. The change is significant. The threat is two-fold, even if the occupations aren’t eliminated they may no longer serve as a source of employment growth for the region And note, this is not isolated to one industry – the change and disruption that is anticipated crosses industries that are major contributors to our economy It is paramount we anticipate and plan for disruptions such as these
- #6 Employment in the Columbus Region is highly concentrated among large employers, which includes firms with more than 1,000 workers. Only three other comparable markets have higher concentrations. Orlando – Disney; Vegas – Casinos; It is a luxury to have these employers in our market. At the same time it presents risk and a threat. If any one business closes, that could be a hard hit with significant ripple effect throughout the region
- #7 Many of the communities you would expect to be on a list like this, Austin, Denver, San Jose. Of importance is that the region performs for well on this data point too Yet we have strengths and weaknesses. The working age population is strong. We need to assure that the talent pipeline is prepared with in-demand skills. Initiatives to better connect learning institutions and industry, such as the Columbus Compact, will remain critically important.
- #8 While the relatively small proportion of Columbus residents with an associate’s degree is partially attributable to the large share of residents with bachelor’s degrees and higher, Columbus still trails other regions even when more residents are excluded from the analysis. We must not only improve education/industry alignment but also educational and skill attainment to meet employer needs.
- #9 The Columbus labor force growth has strongly outperformed the US, Ohio and the Midwest. It’s great that Columbus is growing, but we need all of Ohio to grow. We cannot lose sight of the importance of a strong STATE and a strong state translates to a growing state.
- #10 On a per capita basis, the Columbus region ranks 6th in academic research expenditures among US metros with populations between 1 and 3 million yet there is unrealized innovation capacity.
- #11 We have to give credit where credit is due. Great entrepreneurial news comes out weekly. The Kauffman foundation ranked Columbus third for entrepreneurial vitality. Recall the earlier slide regarding our reliance on large employers. Continued growth of new and small businesses will help offset that reliance
- #12 Earlier Kenny mentioned several of the vehicles of innovation. Of important note is that innovation occurs in a variety of places We need to support and enable innovate in the corporate, institutional and academic settings
- #13 We have more R&D than other places, and Ohio State is a huge proponent of this.
- #14 The spike on the far left is San Jose and I suspect no one in the room finds that statistic surprising. (NOTE – San Jose line “breaks” and would really be 3x the size) Our research surfaced that R&D investments in the region are not translating into patent production. Not only are we lagging the markets referenced on the slide, we also fall behind Lousiville and St. Louis.
- #15 NOTE: San Jose, CA line “breaks” to show more disparity in others As you can see, we’re in the middle of the pack. Perhaps all we need to point out is that Cleveland is in the top 5…… they’ve done a really great job at this. Shouldn’t we aspire to beat Cleveland? In spite of significant increases of VC firms and funding in the region over the past decade we still have work to do The presence of NCT Ventures, Drive Capital, Innovation Ohio and Venture Ohio are great assets for the region and state. Some of their portfolio companies are names you should recognize: Root, With more funding with will both seed and attract the gazelles and unicorns of tomorrow
- #16 Earlier I mentioned the importance of the connectivity and collaboration among stakeholders in the region There are other connectivity factors of importance
- #17 We live in a global economy – we must stay connected The regional’s lack of global diversity may be a factor in out lack of direct flights We think we have a great asset and connectivity is really good But we have some gaps Because of our work we’ve filled some gaps – Seattle, SFO We aren’t a hub airport and we’re not going to be in top five Getting to Europe however is important and we’re working on that Remember - Every time we add a flight, its more people and more business opportunity in our market Global access and connectivity are key to tapping into the world market.
- #18 95% of the world market is outside the US border. Export activity out of the region has improved but is not as high as it should be Focus and attraction of foreign direct investment must also increase Wins such as Sofidel, Brew Dog, and Fluvatex an Ikea supplier, are great FDI wins lets keep the momentum going Note: Grand Rapids is in the top five so our less than stellar performance can’t be a function of size
- #19 95% of the market in the world is outside the US border. Call out Sofidel, BrewDog, etc. but there’s more work to do.
- #20 Global technological, economic, and demographic forces will reshape communities across the US in the years ahead. The nine global forces examined in the following pages are deeply intertwined. In some instances, these global forces create significant risks for existing market leaders, including companies located in the Columbus region. In other areas, an evolving competitive environment will generate new opportunities for both established companies and burgeoning startups. On a per capita basis, the Columbus region ranks 6th in academic research expenditures among US metros with populations between 1 and 3 million.
- #21 Kenny did a great job of covering this in his presentation Just to reemphasize: the start up or SME of today may become a major employer of tomorrow. Are we providing the environment, policies and resources needed for these enterprises to thrive?
- #22 As Kenny highlighted the investment levels and diversity that is occurring is a point of pride
- #23 Our challenge is to see that our momentum continues One way we can do that is to look forward and prepare for growth with enabling infrastructure: Roads, bridges, worker housing, fiber and public policy An interesting fact. Our research revealed that compared to the benchmarked 35 markets with populations 1-3 million, for residential highspeed internet connectivity, the Columbus Region ranked 25th . Fewer than 60% of households have access to high speed (100 megabytes/second) internet. In Franklin County 82% of residents have access to high speed internet. Outside Franklin County the highest percent of residential access to high speed internet is only 27.2%
- #25 As we look to the future we believe that these will be the building blocks to success: Growth, Investment, Innovation, Individual Opportunity, and Community Preparedness As we are gathered here today, we’d like to gather your perspectives so now its time to ask you to weigh in You each play a different role to play in the community. Our first question is from that your community stakeholder perspective and in the context of the strategy building blocks, what do we need to do to sustain momentum? First, in your community and second, in the region. Please take about 5-7 minutes to write down your thoughts on the worksheet provided in your registration packet. <continue exercise) The second question is from your community stakeholder perspective and in the context of the strategy building blocks, what do need to do more of? What should we do less of? First, in your community and second, in the region. Please take about 5-7 minutes to write down your thoughts on the worksheet provided in your registration packet. <continue exercise) We’re about of time. Was there anything you didn’t hear discussed that should be? Thank you for engaging today. As a reminder please leave your worksheet with the individual staged by the door. Please head back to the ballroom where lunch is about to be served. Enjoy the afternoon!