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Climate Change and Health Presentation 1 Oct 2013

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Climate Change and Health Presentation from Public Health England

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Climate Change and Health Presentation 1 Oct 2013

  1. 1. Climate Change and Health Air Pollution and Climate Change Group, Toxicology Department Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards Dr Sotiris Vardoulakis
  2. 2. Outline  Global climate change and health  First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment  Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK  Heat and cold effects on health  Air pollution and climate change  Environmental health and sustainability Climate Change and Health
  3. 3. IPCC 5th Assessment Report – The Physical Science Basis Climate Change and Health Available on 30 September 2013 http://www.ipcc.ch/
  4. 4. Observed change in average surface temperature (1900-2012) Climate Change and Health oC IPCC, 4th AR
  5. 5. Global annual mean temperature anomaly
  6. 6. Mitigation is vital, but we need to prepare for inevitable climate change observations projections 2003 2060s 2040s TemperatureanomalyoverEurope(wrt1961-90)°C Hadley Centre We are already committed to this from past emissions alone
  7. 7. Hughes et al (2011), modified from Capon and Hanna (2009) and Berry et al (2011)
  8. 8. Distribution of four climate-sensitive health effects Relativechangesindiarrhea,malaria,inlandandcoastalflooding,andmalnutritionfrom2000 to2030 (Patz et al., 2008)
  9. 9. Climate Change Act 2008 Climate Change Risk Assessment January 2012 National Adaptation Programme 2013 Committee on Climate Change Adaptation Economic Assessment Committee on Climate Change Committee on Climate Change Committee on Climate Change Health Effects of Climate Change 2012 UKCP09 UKCIP02 Health Effects of Climate Change 2002 Health Effects of Climate Change 2008 Legislative Framework: Moving from evidence to policy Climate Change and Health
  10. 10. CCRA: Sectors and Themes Sectors (for initial analysis) Themes (for synthesis)Sectors (for initial analysis) Themes (for synthesis) https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-climate-change-risk-assessment- government-report 1. Agriculture 2. Biodiversity & Ecosystem Services 3. Built Environment 4. Business, Industry & Services 5. Energy 6. Floods & Coastal Erosion 7. Forestry 8. Health 9. Marine & Fisheries 10. Transport 11. Water • Agriculture & Forestry • Business • Health & Wellbeing • Buildings & Infrastructure • Natural Environment https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-climate-change-risk-assessment- government-report
  11. 11. CCRA: Key issues for different parts of the UK Climate Change and Health
  12. 12. Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK (2012) Climate Change and Health • Evidence • Recommendations • Research gaps www.hpa.org.uk/hecc2012
  13. 13. Current Evidence & Research Gaps 1. Current evidence and climate projections 2. Temperature Effects 3. Air Pollution 4. Aeroallergens 5. Indoor Environment 6. Ultraviolet Radiation 7. Floods 8. Vector borne diseases 9. Food and Water borne Diseases 10. Health Co-benefits of Policies to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions Climate Change and Health
  14. 14. Climate Change and Health Climate Projections http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/
  15. 15. Emissions Scenarios CO2 emissions under the three IPCC SRES scenarios used in UKCP09: A1FI (black: High emissions), A1B (purple: Medium emissions), and B1 (green: Low emissions). (Source: IPCC)
  16. 16. 0 20000000 40000000 60000000 80000000 100000000 120000000 0 2000000 4000000 6000000 8000000 10000000 12000000 14000000 16000000 NE NW YH EM WM EE LN SE SW WA SC NI UK Population Trends UK population is currently 62M rising to 69-86M (2050s) & 72-113M (2080s) Climate Change and Health Wales
  17. 17. Age Distribution (Source: ONS)
  18. 18. Temperature Effects • Increases in annual mean temperatures of around 2 to 5oC under a medium emissions scenario (A1B) by 2080. • Quantification of preventable heat- and cold-related mortality and morbidity, focusing on vulnerable population groups. • Understanding the role of the Urban Heat Island in exacerbating the impact of climate change on mortality rates. • Improved understanding of the role of planned adaptation strategies and long-term physiological changes. • Provision of input to public health plans, and evaluation of their effectiveness.
  19. 19. © UK Climate Projections 2009 UK (2020s) Climate Change and Health
  20. 20. © UK Climate Projections 2009 UK (2050s) Climate Change and Health
  21. 21. © UK Climate Projections 2009 UK (2080s) Climate Change and Health
  22. 22. Days per year with CET > 20oC Days per year with CET < 0oC
  23. 23. August 2003 heatwave 2003 mortality Baseline mortality 2003 mortality Baseline mortality (Johnson et al. 2005)
  24. 24. Climate Change and Health 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 1 2 3 4 5 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Aggregatecountofdays Meandailydeaths(per100Kpopulation) Mean Temperature oC England & Wales deaths days Cold effects Heat effects Temperature Effects
  25. 25. 1.00 1.03 1.06 1.09 1.12 UK heat Relative Risks: Heat (all ages) per 1oC increase above temp threshold (93rd %ile) Climate Change and Health
  26. 26. 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 UK cold Relative Risks: Cold (all ages) per 1oC decrease below temp threshold (60th %ile) Climate Change and Health
  27. 27. Climate Change and Health 1,974 3,281 7,040 12,538 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 2000s 2020s 2050s 2080s A: Heat deaths 69 114 233 409 0 250 500 750 1000 2000s 2020s 2050s 2080s A: Heat deaths UK Wales Heat deaths (per year for all ages)
  28. 28. Climate Change and Health 41,408 42,842 40,397 36,506 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 2000s 2020s 2050s 2080s B: Cold deaths 2,476 2,472 2,176 1,872 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 2000s 2020s 2050s 2080s B: Cold deaths UK Wales Cold deaths (per year for all ages)
  29. 29. Temperature mortality (by age group) 7 94 468 1573 6 85 421 1419 5 69 341 1153 4 56 274 933 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ Cold deaths /100K (mean) 2000s 2020s 2050s 2080s 0 4 18 79 1 6 26 113 1 11 48 206 2 17 77 327 0 200 400 600 0-64 65-74 75-84 85+ Heat deaths /100K (mean) 2000s 2020s 2050s 2080s Mean estimates of heat- and cold-related deaths in the UK per year per 100,000 population (Hajat et al. 2013)
  30. 30. Urban Heat Island West Midlands O C Modelledairtemperature (Heaviside et al. 2013) Birmingham 11pm 5th August 2003 Climate Change and Health
  31. 31. Air Pollution Climate Change and Health • Understanding how climate change interacts with ground level ozone and other climate sensitive air pollutants. • Investigation of the range and extent of health effects of ozone, including those associated with chronic exposure. • Understanding how vulnerable people (e.g. those with pre-existing respiratory illness) need to be protected.
  32. 32. Annual mean Summer mean Change in ground level O3 simulated by EMEP4UK for a +5oC increase in temperature relative to the base simulation for meteorological year 2003. Ground Level Ozone (Heal et al. 2013) Climate Change and Health
  33. 33. Ozone Mortality Burdens (no threshold) (Heal et al. 2013) Wales: 677 700 782 815 765
  34. 34. Aeroallergens • Climate change may result in earlier seasonal appearance of respiratory symptoms and longer duration of exposure to aeroallergens (pollen and fungal spores). • Changes in plant distribution can expose the population to pollen from more plants with different flowering seasons. • Climate change / extreme weather events can change fungal speciation, distribution and allergenicity. • Develop integrated system for modelling atmospheric concentrations of pollen, combining measurements with numerical forecast models.
  35. 35. Indoor Environment • Climate change may exacerbate health risks and inequalities associated with building overheating, indoor air pollution, effects from flooding, dampness and biological contamination. • Characterise the health risks and benefits associated with current and future building infrastructure under climate change scenarios. • Research into how climate change mitigation and adaptation measures may affect the indoor environment (e.g. air quality and biological contamination in buildings).
  36. 36. Ultraviolet Radiation Climate Change and Health • Climate change may affect ambient levels of UVR, but the critical factors affecting human exposure are lifestyle and behaviour. • Understanding the likely changes in ground level UV radiation and the balance between the risk of skin cancer versus a beneficial increase in outdoor activity. • Research into whether warmer summers will encourage more healthy outdoor activities and increased vitamin D production. • UVR related public health messages for specific target groups such as young people and the elderly.
  37. 37. Floods (and Droughts) • Climate change is likely to affect river and coastal flood risk. • Some areas are particularly vulnerable to coastal floods: South Wales, NW Scotland, Yorkshire and Lincolnshire, East Anglia and Thames Estuary. • Understanding how floods (and droughts) affect both physical and mental health of populations. • Development and evaluation of public health action plans, advice and guidance.
  38. 38. Changes in Precipitation – Winter
  39. 39. 39 Changes in Precipitation – Summer
  40. 40. Vector Borne Diseases • It is likely that the range, activity and vector potential of ticks and mosquitoes will increase in this century. • Climate change may act on disease vectors (and their pathogens) both directly through a rise in temperature or change in precipitation. • and indirectly through our adaptation to climate change, e.g. creation of coastal wetlands and habitat expansion. Climate Change and Health
  41. 41. Food and Water Borne Disease • Most water and food-borne pathogens show seasonal variation, which may be directly or indirectly influenced by weather. • Warmer weather will allow pathogens (e.g. Salmonella) to grow more readily in food, and will favour pests and fungal mycotoxins that affect food safety. • Understanding of how seawater temperature can affect the risk of people being exposed to algal blooms and associated marine toxins. • Climate change is likely to elevate food prices which may reduce the nutritional status of some population groups.
  42. 42. Health Co-benefits of Mitigation Climate Change and Health • Mitigation policies may achieve health, GHG and economic benefits simultaneously (‘the triple bottom line’). • Understanding the health co-benefits of policies to reduce GHG emissions in transport, energy generation and food production. • Evaluation of the health effects (both positive and negative) of emerging ‘low carbon’ technologies and biofuel policies.
  43. 43. Public Health Response
  44. 44. Conclusions • Climate change is likely to pose significant challenges to public health in the UK by aggravating existing public health problems. • Some UK regions (flood risk and densely populated areas) and population groups (elderly, deprived, ill) are more vulnerable. • Research needed on current and future interactions between climate, and environmental and behavioural drivers that affect public health. • The environmental public health sector needs to respond to these challenges by:  strengthening modelling, monitoring and surveillance systems  improving the resilience of public health infrastructure  improving the assessment & communication of climate related risks  developing the evidence on health benefits of climate change adaptation and mitigation
  45. 45. Acknowledgements • Climate change and associated research in PHE/CRCE • Department of Health • Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs • NHS Sustainable Development Unit • UK Climate Impacts Programme • UK Met Office Climate Change and Health Health Effects of Climate Change in the UK (2012) report available online www.hpa.org.uk/hecc2012
  46. 46. Climate Change and Health

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