1. T H E S H I F T O f PA S S E N G E R T R A F F I C
The HIGH SPEED RAIL between ITALY and FRANCE is still heating up
tempers after years of public debate. Let us do the math
w hat are w e ta l k ing a b o u t w hen w e ta l k a b o u t. . .
The new high speed railway between Turin in Italy and Lyon
in France is part of the so-called “Pan-European Corridor 5”,
planned by the European Union to connect Lyon to Budapest
and, in the long term, Lisbon to Kiev. This project is listed
among the 14 priority projects adopted in Essen in 1996 and
requires the strengthening of the existing road and rail infra-
structure, the creation of new infrastructure and the elimina-
tion of bottlenecks, thanks to specific interventions. People
opposing this project – which does not specifically require the
use of high-speed, high capacity railway lines – make the objec-
tion that over long distances (above 500-700 miles) trains are
not competitive with airplanes for transporting passengers, nor
they are with ships for freight. The main benefits of this Trans-
Alps Corridor will be the reduction of some travel times, which
would become those listed in the chart on the right.
existing LINE Max. slope:
high speed LINE Max. slope:
3,3%
Base tunnel
Drilled at an altitude between 570 and 750 metres above sea level,
it stretches under the Ambin massif, which since the ‘60s has been
considered rich in asbestos and uranium - whose dust would be
dispersed into the environment as a result of the drilling work.
high spee d rai l w ay: the n u m b ers
THE scenario
How many cars would the high
speed rail take away from the
road? Worldwide, fast trains
have removed more traffic from
skies than they have from roads:
on the Milan-Rome route, the
passenger traffic is now split
in about 45% by train, 40%
by plane and 15% by car. The
impact on vehicular traffic is
usually modest: here we show
what happened in the Rome-
Naples route after the opening
of the high-speed rail in 2008.
Passenger traffic between Italy
and France relies over two
motorway tunnels (Fréjus and
Mont Blanc) and one railway
tunnel (Mont Cenis). It amounts
to about 2.5 million individual
trips, in large majority on road.
The impact of the high speed
railway on the total amount
of travels in the Piedmont
region does not reach 1%;
on a national basis, its relative
weight is still lower: less
than 0.1%.
In order to allow convoys to
keep cruising speed nearly
double than standard speed,
high-speed railway lines
require special technologies
for laying the rails (continuous
welding), low slopes and large
curve radiuses. A significant
contribution to the reduction
of travel times comes from the
shortened path length allowed
by the new, 53 km long tunnel.
The costs and environmental
impact of the tunnel, however,
gather much criticism.
2,76million
2,74million
Car passengers,
Rome-Naples
(The Turin-Lyon high speed rail)
French section:
131km
International section
12km
Italian section
43km
Settimo Torinese
> San Didero
Saint Jean Maurienne
> Lyon
San Didero
> Saint Jean Maurienne
New high speed rail:
254-265km(depending on the path
in the French part)
By car: By train:
2,5million
Fréjus
Mont Blanc Mont Cenis
passenger T raffic in 2 0 1 0 ( R O A D + R A I L ) :
t
h
in
k Existing railway length:
287km
1,2%
023
energY
words Christian
Cavaciuti
The trans-national company“Lyon-
TurinFerroviaire(LTF)”,purposedly
createdinOctober,2001,isincharge
ofthejointItalian-Frenchsection
ofthenewhighspeedrailway.
ItsshareholdersaretheItalianand
Frenchnational,stateownedrailway
companies:RFI(50%)andRFF(50%)
Source: Lyon Turin Ferroviaire, Politecnico di Milano,
Unione Industriali di Torino, Università Cattolica, lavoce.info
2007:
Car passengers,
Rome-Naples 2009:
meaning -1%
Base tunnel length:
53km
San Didero
> Saint Jean Maurienne
Underground total:
135km
R

2. 15-20billion euro
600.000 and if we take stock...
There are many cases where an in-
crease in supply brings with it an
increase in demand: the high speed
rail supporters typically use this
argument, the same underpinning
official studies. Independent stu-
dies, with more conservative esti-
mates, are all in the red (often dra-
matically). The strong variability of
assumptions on traffic and costs
(which are indeed assumptions) do
not allow to draw safe conclusions;
the historical data and comparison
with other infrastructures do not
appear to give evidence, however,
in favour of this project.
the F reight traffic in 2 0 1 0 : T H E costs
the m o d a l shift
but in Germany things did not go that way:
+64%
Between 1995 and
2008, the efficiency
of the rail freight
service made rail
traffic increase by
+85,6%
But in the same ye-
ars, the freight traf-
fic on lorry rose by
as much as
laying 100 Mbit
cables in the
whole italy
10
15 40
billion euro
billion euro
lorries out of
1.500.000
freight traffic through the alps: 2000-2009 variations
Or as
building 3
bridges over
the straits
between and
italY
for the
italian
section
alone
francE
ue
Official estimate:
Independent estimates:
Most likely value:
023
energY
Coming to freight, the total volume of trade
between France and Italy amounts to
37 million tonnes per year, of which:
- by road: 34,5 million tonnes on
1.500.000 trailers (constant since 2000);
- by rail: 2,5 million tonnes on
225.000 wagons (-20% since 2000).
The designers of the high speed line
estimate a volume of freight traffic
equivalent to 40 million tons for the rail
only, well higher than the total traffic
today. The existing railway line is presently
used to just 38% of its potential. But even
assuming that prediction to come true, you
have to factor in the increasing competition
from other tunnels, especially the Fréjus
road tunnel whose renovation works were
completed at the end of 2010 and that is
now able to afford, by itself, these expected
40 million tons. The decline in freight
traffic, moreover, does not seem linked to
reasons of practicability, but to economical
and historical reasons: the trading routes
of Italy are changing, moving volumes (and
money) from West partners to North and
East partners.
Germany has a rail network
among the most efficient in
Europe. Due also to a policy of
strong incentives, between 1995
and 2008 the German rail freight
traffic grew by 64%. A remarkable
achievement, which however did
not foster any reduction of road
freight traffic, which indeed grew
even more (85.6%)! As a result,
the share of freight transport by
rail decreased by 3%. Therefore,
freight modal shift from road to
rail does not seem to promote any
significant reduction of vehicular
traffic. In addition, the Lyon-Turin
high speed rail would impact
on the highway between Turin
and France, where the flows are
already modest; and not where
the traffic is tipically congested:
in the orbital road around the
Piedmont capital city.
On the costs side the dispute
between supporters and
opponents of the project is even
fiercer. The high speed line Turin-
Milan cost 62.4 million euros,
versus 16.6 million of the Paris-
Strasbourg line built in the same
period. It is true that the Turin-
Milan has been partly charged of
the costs for the reconstruction
of the highway, that runs parallel
to it. In any case, the costs of
infrastructural projects usually
tend to rise substantially, even
more so in Italy. Then one finds
that the most likely cost figure
(between 15 and 20 billion euros)
is three times that for the bridge
over the Strait of Sicily, and
comparable to infrastructures
that many consider more strategic
for the Italian economy, as the
broadband network.
FrancE switzerland austria
-42% +16% +14%
-72% +1% +48%
+
+
The shippings are shifting from east-west to north-south
The high-speed rail makes the
assumption that the freight
traffic will shift from road to
rail for an equivalent
road + rail
rail only