MABE 2019 Outlook presentation on Winnipeg and Manitoba's Labour Market. We looked at the provincial picture, various challenges being noted by the market and frameworks to think about them, and some potential solutions, along with some land use implications for the city of Winnipeg. Presented by MATTHIAS RUST, Manitoba Growth, Enterprise and Trade, CHRIS FERRIS, Economic Development Winnipeg, and TYLER MARKOWSKY, City of Winnipeg.

1. WINNIPEG & MANITOBA LABOUR
MARKET
TYLER MARKOWSKY, CITY OF WINNIPEG
CHRIS FERRIS, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTWINNIPEG
MATTHIAS RUST, MANITOBA GROWTH, ENTERPRISE ANDTRADE

2. LABOUR SUPPLY AND DEMAND FORECASTS
MATTHIAS RUST
MANITOBA GROWTH, ENTERPRISE AND TRADE

3. DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
MANITOBA AGE
DISTRIBUTION, ESTIMATED
AND PROJECTED - 2017-2024
(IN 000S)
2024 2017
Source: Stokes Economics
+26
+2
+13
+29
+3
+1
+48
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Age 0 to
14
Age 15 to
24
Age 25 to
34
Age 35 to
44
Age 45 to
54
Age 55 to
64
Age 65 +
MANITOBA AGE
DISTRIBUTION CHANGE
2017 TO 2024 (IN 000S)

4. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
5.5 5.6
5.0 5.0 5.1
4.9
5.3
4.7
4.3 4.4
4.2
5.2
5.4 5.5
5.3 5.4 5.4
5.6
6.1
5.4
8.3
7.6
6.8
7.2
7.7 7.6
7.2
6.8
6.3
6.0 6.1
8.3
8.1
7.5
7.3
7.1
6.9 6.9 7.0
6.3
5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3
6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
UNEMPLOYMENTRATEIN%
MAN CAN
Source: Stokes Economics, Statistics Canada, IMF
Forecast

5. LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY
37.3 37.6
38.7
39.6 39.8 39.8 40.3
41.4
42.3 42.7
43.6 43.9
44.9
45.9 46.3
47.2
47.9 47.6
49
49.7
43.5
44.8
46.2 46.6 47.2 47.4 47.7
48.7
49.4 49.5 49.3 49.6
50.3
51.3 51.3 51.9
53.2 53.1 53.4
54.5
49.7 50.1 50.3 50.5 50.8 51.1 51.4 51.7
54.5 54.8 55.4 56.0 56.7 57.3
58.0
58.7
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
LABOURPRODUCTIVITY,CHAINED(2007)
DOLLARS/HOUR
Manitoba Canada
Source: Statistics Canada, Stokes Economics

6. FUTURE LABOUR DEMAND
680,300
731,600
640,000
660,000
680,000
700,000
720,000
740,000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
MANITOBA LABOUR DEMAND - 2018-2024
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
JOB OPENINGS BY SOURCE - 2018-2024
Deaths Retirements Expansion Demand
Source: Stokes Economics

7. EXPANSIONVERSUS REPLACEMENT DEMAND
-5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000
Management occupations
Business, finance and administration occupations
Natural and applied sciences and related occupations
Health occupations
Occupations in education, law and social, community and government services
Occupations in art, culture, recreation and sport
Sales and service occupations
Trades, transport and equipment operators and related occupations
Natural resources, agriculture and related production occupations
Occupations in manufacturing and utilities
Number of Job Openings
OCCUPATIONAL GROUPS (ONE-DIGIT NOC) BY JOB
OPENINGS, EXPANSION AND REPLACEMENT DEMAND,
2018-2024
Expansion Demand Replacement Demand
Source: Stokes Economics

8. EDUCATIONAL REQUIREMENTS
22%
30%
25%
23%
10%
30%
29%
31%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
No certificate, diploma or degree Secondary (high) school diploma or
equivalency certificate
College or Apprenticeship training University certificate or diploma
EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT VS FUTURE JOB
REQUIREMENTS
Population (Census 2016) Job Openings Forecast
Source: Stokes Economics

9. FUTURE LABOUR SUPPLY
680,900 (e) 687,100 (f)
738,600 (f)
640,000
660,000
680,000
700,000
720,000
740,000
760,000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
MANITOBA LABOUR FORCE, ESTIMATED AND
PROJECTED - 2017 TO 2024
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
SOURCES OF LABOUR FORCE CHANGE - 2018 TO 2024
Deaths Retirements New Entrants Net In-Migration Net Other In-Mobility Labour Force Change
Source: Stokes Economics

10. SUPPLY-DEMAND IMBALANCES
Variable 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Labour Force
Demand
680,300 690,100 699,200 708,100 716,100 724,600 731,600
Labour Force Supply 687,100 695,900 705,300 714,100 722,500 730,900 738,600
Excess Supply 6,800 5,800 6,100 6,100 6,400 6,300 7,000
Source: Stokes Economics

11. SKILLS SHORTAGES
CHRIS FERRIS
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTWINNIPEG

12. SKILLS SHORTAGE IN CANADA
Canada
Canada is facing a skills shortage.
Canada to increase immigration
target to 350,000 by 2021: ’The
hunger for workers is huge’ –
Canadian Press (October 31,
2018) - National Post.

13. SKILLS SHORTAGE IN CANADA
Canada
Canada is facing a skills shortage.
Winnipeg
This extends to Manitoba and Winnipeg,
Manitoba too.
• As we saw earlier, this is a result of both:
• the need to replace retirees, and
• the creation of new jobs.

14. RELEVANT MODELS & CONCEPTS
• SOLOW GROWTH MODEL
• ENDOGENOUS GROWTH MODELS
• INDUSTRY CLUSTERS
• TYPES OF INNOVATION
• TECHNOLOGY PENETRATION

15. ECONOMIC GROWTH:
SOLOW MODEL
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
0
0.75
1.5
2.25
3
3.75
4.5
5.25
6
6.75
7.5
8.25
9
9.75
10.5
11.25
12
Investment&DepreciationperWorker
k = (K/L)
Solow growth Model
Investment: sf(k) Depreciation: dk
 The Solow Model was the first successful growth
model.
 ∆𝑘𝑘 = 𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 𝑘𝑘 − 𝛿𝛿𝛿𝛿
 An example: Solow Model tutorial w- graph (excel)

16. ECONOMIC GROWTH:
ENDOGENOUS GROWTHTHEORY
 R&D Driven growth
 Learning by Doing –
 capital enhancing,
 labour enhancing
 Human capital driven
See Romer, David (2001).“Advanced Macroeconomics,” 2nd Edition, McGraw-Hill; David Romer website lists up to the fifth edition.

17. INDUSTRY CLUSTERS
 What Are Industry Clusters?
 Today’s economic map of the world is characterized by “clusters.” A cluster is a geographic concentration of
related companies, organizations, and institutions in a particular field that can be present in a region, state, or
nation. Clusters arise because they raise a company's productivity, which is influenced by local assets and the
presence of like firms, institutions, and infrastructure that surround it.
Key Concepts:
 CLUSTERS INCREASE PRODUCTIVITY AND OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY.
 CLUSTERS STIMULATE AND ENABLE INNOVATION.
 CLUSTERS FACILITATE COMMERCIALIZATION AND NEW BUSINESS FORMATION.
Source: Harvard University, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Clusters. Michael E. Porter

18. TYPES OF INNOVATION
Source:The-Three-Levels-of-Innovation, or Incremental-innovation
Incremental Innovation
Transformational/
Radical
Innovation
Breakthrough Innovation
of the Technology
Breakthrough
Innovation
of the Business Model
ExistingTechnologyNew
Existing Business Model New

19. TECHNOLOGY PENETRATION CURVE AS A
PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION (PDF)
2.5%
13.5%
34% 34%
16%
Early Adopter'sInnovators Early Majority Late Majority Laggards
Source: https://www.slideshare.net/wright4/double-scurve-model-of-growth

20. TECHNOLOGY PENETRATION CURVE AS A
CUMULATIVE DENSITY FUNCTION (CDF)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
Early Adopter's
Innovators
Early Majority
Late Majority
Laggards
Source: https://www.slideshare.net/wright4/double-scurve-model-of-growth

21. JUMPING THE S-CURVE
BusinessPerformance
Source: Paul Numes and Tim Breene (2011) “Jumping the S-Curve”, Accenture Institute for High Performance
Time
E.g. IPhone
E.g. Ipod
E.g. IPad

22. THE CHALLENGEVARIES BY INDUSTRY
EXAMPLES: ADVANCED MANUFACTURING, AGRIBUSINESS,AND
INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATIONTECHNOLOGIES (ICT)

23. DIGITALTECHNOLOGIES ENABLING INDUSTRY 4.0
OR ADVANCED MANUFACTURING
Additive
manufacturing
(3-D Printing)
Autonomous
machines and
systems
Human-
Machine
Integration
Simulations
Artificial
Intelligence
System
Integration
Big Data
Cloud
Computing
Internet of
Things
Source: Chart Adapted from Alistair Nolan, OECD,“The Next Revolution in Production Systems,” https://slideplayer.com/slide/11738325/

24. ADVANCED MANUFACTURING –
WHAT OF THE LABOUR CHALLENGES?
While all of these emerging
technologies are great, the
challenges include:
1. getting people who can
integrate these systems into
a production process so
that they are usable.
2. Getting trained people who
can effectively use these
systems.
Source: Chart Adapted from Alistair Nolan, OECD,“The Next Revolution in Production Systems,” https://slideplayer.com/slide/11738325/
Additive
manufacturing
(3-D Printing)
Autonomous
machines and
systems
Human-
Machine
Integration
Simulations
Artificial
Intelligence
System
Integration
Big Data
Cloud
Computing
Internet of
Things

25. AGRIBUSINESS (1 OF 2)
 The agribusiness sector’s set of supply chains (from inputs to farming to food processing, and from food
processing to wholesale to retail) is dealing with:
 technical change
 A shortage of workers in primary production particularly,
 and the need for training on new technology throughout the supply chains

26. AGRIBUSINESS: (2 OF 2)
Sources: Personal research, Bruce Scherr (former Chairman and CEO of Informa Economics) presentations, Rob Saik (2014),“The Agricultural Manifesto”
Electronic Markets:
Brokerages,
Derivative
Exchanges
Market
Segmentation:
Niche Marketing
Artificial
Intelligence
3-D Printing
Supply Chain
Management/
Traceability: Farm
to Fork
Big Data
Robotics:
autonomous
vehicles
SensorTechnology
Bioengineering Precision
Agriculture

27. INFORMATION & COMMUNICATIONTECHNOLOGIES (1 OF 2)
 With Information and CommunicationTechnologies (ICT) skills being required in an ever increasing number of
industries: E.g. [Financial sector, telecom, transportation & distribution,Agribusiness],
 and the rapid growth of companies: E.g. [Skip the Dishes, Farmer’s Edge, Bold Commerce, Ubisoft]
 A variety of programming and data science jobs are in strong demand in Canada and throughout the world.

28. INFORMATION & COMMUNICATIONTECHNOLOGIES (2 OF 2)
Artificial
Intelligence
Data Science
Visual and
Motion
Graphics
Many Industry
Specific
technologies
Software
Developers &
Programmers
Big Data
Cloud
Computing
System
Design/
Integration

29. SOLUTIONS WILL HAVE TO COME FROM:
EDUCATION,TRAINING,AND TARGETED IMMIGRATION.
BUILDING THESE LABOUR FORCE PIPELINES IS KEYTO ALLEVIATING LABOUR SHORTAGES.

30. PART OF THE SOLUTION: EDUCATION
 Continue to modify the education system:
 Primary, Secondary
 Post-secondary
 Ensure the trainers (teachers) have been trained to teach the basic through advanced skills
 Teach those skills to students
 Teach students how to teach themselves

31. PART OF THE SOLUTION:TRAINING
Types of
Innovation
Training required
Incremental
This is more likely simple on the
job training.
Break-through/
Substantial
This requires more structured
training in either a new business
model or technology.
Transformative/
Radical
This requires a fairly substantial
retraining of the effected staff in
both business model and
technology.
 Training is typically for workers already working,
or retraining.
 Training is typically for ensuring staff are effective
at their jobs.
 The requirement for more formal training typically
rises with the complexity of the innovation being
implemented.

32. PART OF THE SOLUTION:TARGETED IMMIGRATION
 Manitoba has run the provincial nominee program (PNP) since 1997.
 This has had a substantially positive effect on Winnipeg and Manitoba’s population growth since its introduction.
 The PNP continues to evolve to target bring in and retaining
 International students,
 Skilled workers, and
 Entrepreneurs
https://www.immigratemanitoba.com/

33. LAND AND LABOUR
TYLER MARKOWSKY
CITY OFWINNIPEG

34. LOCAL LABOUR FORCE BY DEMOGRAPHIC
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
15 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 and over
WINNIPEG LABOUR FORCE STATUS, 2016 CENSUS
Employed Unemployed Not in the Labour Force
Source: Statistics Canada, 2016 Census Data Tables

35. LOCAL LABOUR FORCE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O J A J O
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
THREE-MONTH MOVING AVERAGE, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
Canada Manitoba Winnipeg
Source; Statistics Canada, Table 14-10-0294-02

36. LOCAL EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY
64,200
57,400
39,600
31,900
29,300
26,000 23,800 22,200 21,500 19,900
16,900 16,600
13,600
4,500
1,200 800
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY IN WINNIPEG, 2017
Source: Statistics Canada, Table 14-10-0092-01

37. LOCAL EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRYVS. NATIONAL
12.9%
15.3%
9.4%
7.0%
6.6% 6.4%
7.7%
5.1%
5.2%
7.9%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
EMPLOYMENT DISTRIBUTION BY INDUSTRY, MAJOR CANADIAN CITIES, 2017
Winnipeg Regina Edmonton Ottawa Halifax Montréal Vancouver Toronto Cdn Avg
Source: Statistics Canada, Table 14-10-0092-01

38. LOCAL EMPLOYMENT CHANGES OVERTIME
13%
15%
14%
7% 7% 7%
4%
7% 7%
5%
5% 4% 3%
1%
0% 0%
16%
15%
10%
8% 8% 7%
6% 6% 6% 5%
4% 4%
3%
1%
0% 0%
4%
0%
-4%
1% 0% 0%
2%
-1% -1%
0% 0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
0%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY IN WINNIPEG, 2001 AND 2017
2001 2017 Change
Source: Statistics Canada, Table 14-10-0092-01