Chip McGee authored an article on using actual kindergarten attendance figures rather than possible students based on births to make more accurate enrollment projections. Focusing only on births can lead to projections that differ greatly from reality six years later. Counting students attending on the first day of kindergarten provides a better indicator of those who will be in the educational system over the next dozen years. Taking a three-year average of changes in cohorts augments this approach and allows for accurate budgeting and allocation of resources.

1. The Importance of Actual
Kindergarten Attendance in
Making Projections
By: Chip McGee Bedford NH

2. The Importance of Actual Kindergarten Attendance
in Making Projections
A well established presence in the Bedford, NH community, Chip McGee utilizes experience as a
teacher and educational administrator in his position with Sugar Maple Consulting. As Bedford School
District superintendent, he oversaw a variety of NH curriculum initiatives while maintaining a balanced
budget. Respected in his field, Chip McGee authored the LinkedIn article “Counting Noses” on the
importance of using actual kindergarten attendance figures in making enrollment projections.

3. The Importance of Actual Kindergarten Attendance
in Making Projections
All too often, districts focus on "possible" students through looking at births in the community, which
can lead to projections that are much different from the reality that emerges six years later. Counting
those actually in attendance on their first day of school provides a much better yardstick of those who
will likely be part of the educational system over the next dozen years.

4. The Importance of Actual Kindergarten Attendance
in Making Projections
Augmenting this approach, a “three-year average of the change in the cohort” provides an accurate
snapshot that allows budget and resources to be appropriately allocated. While there may be a
tendency to weight this figure toward the most recent year, an unweighted average is more simple
and easy to understand, and thus trusted by the public when making important financial decisions.
At the same time, consideration should be given to changes such as new residential developments
and school closures, outside factors that often impact school attendance.