The Nigerian stock market declined further as most stocks closed lower. Sector indices were mixed, with banking and insurance stocks declining due to losses in UBA and other financials. Market turnover fell 24.9% as trading concentrated in a few stocks. SABMiller reported strong growth in Nigeria, with revenue up 33% year-over-year, driven by 27% volume growth. However, growth may slow to 3-4% this year as lower oil prices impact consumption. The government may raise VAT from 5% to 10% and cancel projects if oil prices continue falling.

1. Retail views
UBA Q4 results
Nigeria Thursday, 22 January 2015
Daily Retail Report
.
Market Review
The Nigerian capital market continued the downtrend
unabatedly as investors maintained supply postures driven by
profit taking tendencies. Except for NSE BNK and NSE CNSM
that lost points on the backdrop of UBA(-4.94%), GTB(-1.81%),
Int.Brew(-4.98%) and Guinness(-2.29%), most sectoral indices
closed in the green but were unable to lift the ASI into positive
territory.
Current year-to-date index figure stands at 13.07%. Three out of
every four stocks that changed price in the broad market closed
down, while 58 issues remained unchanged. The key stocks on
the gainers’ chart are Mansard(N3.15), Portpaint(N3.88),
Flourmill(N36.99) and CustodyIns(N3.85) while Presco(N28.22),
Int.Brew(N20.8) and UBA(N3.66) made the top key losers. Market
turnover was N2.471bn, a 24.9% decline from previous trading
figure, as trades were concentrated in GTB, UACN, NB and
FBNH.
A cautious trading approach is advised as the market succumbs
to strong profit taking activities.
Sector Report Today(%) Month-To-Date(%) Year-To-Date(%)
NSE30 -0.35 -14.96 -14.96
NSE BNK10 -1.34 -14.26 -14.26
NSE CNSM10 -0.33 -13.92 -13.92
NSE OILG5 0.10 -5.29 -5.29
NSE INS10 1.47 -5.52 -5.52
Market Wrap
ASI -0.24 29,687.93
Index year-to-datee -13.07
Market Cap. N9.888Tril
Traded value 2.471Bn
Key gainers (%)
FLOURMILL 2.75
OANDO 5.23
WAPCO 1.23
UACN 0.42
DANGCEM 0.31
Key losers (%)
PRESCO -4.98
INTBREW -4.98
MOBIL -2.40
NASCON -2.40
OKOMUOIL -2.51
NITTY
1M 10.6887
2M 11.9782
3M 12.8771
6M 14.6260
9M 14.8758
12M 16.1070
Crude oil spot price
Brent crude US$49.38
Contact information
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Mobile: 08068015502
Email: cslservice@fcmb.com
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2. Daily Retail Report
Page 2
Retail views
Stock Recommendations
Banking Comment
Current
Price
Target
Price
Potential
Upside %
EPS
FY
2013
1 Yr
forward
EPS
Last
Dividend
(N)
P/BV
2013
Yield FY
2013
Yield FY
2014e
Shares
Outstanding
(millions)
Year
End
ACCESS BANK Hold 5.09 11.00 116% 1.60 1.90 0.35 0.80 7.10% 11.5% 22883.00 Dec.
DIAMOND BANK Buy 4.10 8.10 98% 2.00 1.70 0.30 0.60 5.40% 5.4% 14475.00 Dec.
FIDELITY BANK PLC Buy 1.34 3.00 124% 0.30 0.50 0.14 0.30 7.40% 11.6% 28974.00 Dec.
FBN HOLDINGS Hold 7.49 14.70 96% 2.20 2.30 1.10 0.80 10.00% 10.0% 32632.00 Dec.
GUARANTY TRUST BANK Buy 20.58 39.80 93% 3.20 3.30 1.45 2.20 6.90% 7.3% 29431.00 Dec.
STANBIC HOLDINGS Hold 26.00 15.50 -40% 1.90 2.60 1.20 3.10 2.70% 3.5% 10000.00 Dec.
STERLING BANK Hold 2.47 2.70 9% 0.40 0.40 0.25 0.80 10.90% 8.7% 21592.00 Dec.
SKYE BANK Under review 2.14 5.00 134% 1.20 1.10 0.30 0.30 11.10% 20.7% 13219.00 Dec.
U B A Hold 3.66 7.40 102% 1.40 1.50 0.50 0.70 10.10% 10.1% 32981.00 Dec.
ZENITH BANK Buy 16.82 31.50 87% 3.00 3.00 1.75 1.30 8.10% 8.3% 31396.00 Dec.
Food & Beverage
EV/EBITDA (x)
2013
Yield FY
2013e
DANGOTE SUGAR REFINERY Under review 5.27 Under review N/A 0.89 1.20 0.60 4.70 7.40% 7.4% 12000.00 Dec.
CADBURY NIG. Under review 39.90 Under review N/A 2.90 3.20 1.30 7.60 0.00% 4.7% 1878.00 Dec.
FLOUR MILLS Hold 36.99 54.80 48% 2.90 3.50 1.60 8.90 3.30% 4.0% 2385.00 Mar.
HONEYWELL FLOURMILLS Buy 2.96 5.20 76% 0.40 0.30 0.17 12.00 5.70% 4.7% 7930.00 Mar.
NESTLE FOODS NIG. Hold 830.15 821.80 -1% 28.10 31.30 24.00 24.90 2.60% 3.0% 792.00 Dec.
P Z INDUSTRIES Hold 24.97 34.60 39% 1.20 1.30 0.19 7.80 2.70% 3.0% 3970.00 May
U A C N Buy 35.99 72.60 102% 2.90 3.60 1.75 5.40 4.00% 4.7% 1920.00 Dec.
UNILEVER NIGERIA PLC Sell 32.80 31.80 -3% 1.30 1.60 1.25 13.70 3.80% 3.8% 3783.00 Dec.
Building Materials EPS 2013e
EV/EBITDA(x)
2013e
Yield FY
2013e
LAFARGE WAPCO PLC Under review 82.00 Under review N/A 9.40 9.40 3.30 8.20 3.30% 3.3% 3001.00 Mar.
DANGOTE CEMENT Buy 155.50 258.50 N/A 11.80 11.90 7.00 16.10 3.40% 3.5% 17040.00 Dec.
Breweries EPS 2013e
EV/EBITDA(x)
2013e
Yield FY
2013e
GUINNESS NIG. Sell 127.02 111.00 -13% 7.90 5.90 7.00 14.50 4.30% 3.0% 1506.00 June
INTERNATIONAL BREWERIES Hold 20.80 24.50 18% 0.90 1.30 0.30 16.20 1.00% 1.5% 3263.00 Mar.
NIGERIAN BREWERIES Sell 145.00 121.20 -16% 5.70 5.60 4.50 13.30 2.90% 2.1% 7562.00 June
Agriculture EPS 2013e
EV/EBITDA (x)
2013e
Yield FY
2013e
OKOMU OIL Buy 23.30 41.50 78% 2.20 3.00 1.00 9.00 3.20% 6.7% 953.00 Dec.
PRESCO PLC Buy 28.22 42.70 51% 1.29 1.60 0.10 9.20 0.40% 1.7% 1000.00 Dec.
Pharmaceuticals EV/EBITDA (x)
2013
Yield FY 2013
GLAXOSMITHKLINE BEECHAM NIG. Buy 40.00 78.60 0.97 3.10 4.30 1.30 8.90 2.50% 3.8% 957.00 Dec.
Note – for full report on the recommended stocks kindly send an email to cslcsu@firstcitygroup.com

3. Daily Retail Report
Page 3
Retail views
Top Highlight
SABMiller- Nigeria growth remains strong
SABMiller (N/R) released its Q3 2015 trading update yesterday. Note: March year-end. While group Net Producer Revenues (NPR) increased by
4.0% year-on-year (y/y), lager volumes were down 1.0% y/y. In Nigeria, SABMiller’s operations continue to record impressive volume and revenue
growth as NPR increased by 33.0% y/y in Q3. Sales growth was driven by strong volumes which increased by 27.0% y/y. SABMiller’s holdings in
Nigeria includes the listed International Breweries (Hold, target price: N24.5, current price: N21.9), and the unlisted Intafact Beverages (N/R),
Pabod Breweries (N/R), and Voltic Nigeria (N/R). The company attributes the strong performance in Nigeria to its market execution and
incremental capacity.
We believe the company’s additional capacity of 1.4 million hectolitres per annum in 2014 at its Intafact Beverages brewery in Onitsha, helped it
meet incremental demand and increase market share in the South East. While growth remains impressive, in our view, it appears sales growth
slowed slightly during Q3 as the company was able to achieve NPR growth of 41.0% y/y in H1 2015 in Nigeria.
SABMiller’s strategy in Nigeria – to offer relatively low priced brands such Hero lager in the South East markets and Trophy in the South West –
continues to deliver positive results. Hero and Trophy lager brands retail for c.25.0% off the price of Nigerian Breweries’ popular Star lager. We
believe larger brewers such as Nigerian Breweries (Sell, target price: N121.1, current price: N145.0) and Guinness Nigeria (Sell, target price:
N111.1, current price: N130.0) could struggle to contain SABMiller’s rise in South East Nigeria in coming quarters due to the lack of a popular
value brand within the product portfolios of both brewers. However the merger of Nigerian Breweries and Consolidated Breweries could create a
larger entity with the production capacity in the South West, wider product portfolio and notable value brands to compete with International
Breweries in its core markets of Ondo, Ogun, Oyo, Osun and Ekiti states.
News Headlines
Subsidy on petrol now N2.84 per litre – PPPRA: Despite the recent reduction in the pump price of petrol from N97 to N87 per litre, the Federal
Government has claimed it still pays N2.84 as subsidy on every litre of the product consumed. According to the latest petrol pricing template
published on the website of the Petroleum Products Pricing Regulatory Agency, the Expected Open Market Price of Premium Motor Spirit,
otherwise called petrol, is N89.84 per litre, while the regulated price is N87 per litre. According to the agency, the landing cost of petrol is now
N74.35 per litre, while the ex-depot price is N77.66 per litre. Source: punchng.com
Beer drinkers in Nigeria cut back as oil industry falters: SABMiller Plc (SAB) expects beer volume growth to decelerate in Nigeria this year as
lower oil prices dent consumption and African markets become more competitive. Bloomberg quoted the Managing Director of the company's Africa
unit, Mark Bowman to have said this in Davos. The company, which had predicted beer volume growth in Nigeria of about eight percent a year,
may see that rate slow to three or four percent, Bowman said. Source: thisdaylive.com
Nigeria may double VAT due to falling oil prices: The federal government plans to double its value-added tax (VAT) and cancel government
projects if oil prices continue to slide. Coordinating Minister for the Economy/Minister of Finance, Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said this in an
interview with The Wall Street Journal. According to Okonjo-Iweala, the country is reviewing some 6,000 ongoing projects to see which will be
kept, delayed, or scrapped. If oil prices continue to sink, it will also raise its value-added tax, from five percent to 10 percent she said.
Source: thisdaylive.com

4. Daily Retail Report
Page 4
Retail views
Important Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
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