Views on how things work in France and for the French MOD in time of structural changes.

1. The
French
government’s
view
of
strategic
risks
and
the
“front
of
mind”
issue
Christophe-­‐Alexandre
PAILLARD
Research
Director
“armaments
and
defence
economics”,
IRSEM
Westminster
Risk
12th
March
2015
(London)

2. 11/03/15
French
ways
of
thinking
strategic
risks
2
Christophe-­‐Alexandre
PAILLARD
• French
strategic
thinking
forms
part
of
a
long
tradiPon.
• The
richness
of
its
reflecPon
accounts
for
its
influence
on
the
development
of
Western
strategic
thinking.
As
examples,
French
theorists
have
contributed
to
beTer
research
into
geopoliPcs
(Admiral
Raoul
Castex),
nuclear
strategy
(Raymond
Aron,
General
Lucien
Poirier,
and
General
Pierre-­‐Marie
Gallois),
and,
more
generally,
the
nature
of
acPon
in
warPme.
• One
of
Raoul
Castex'
main
achievement
was
the
creaPon
of
the
French
Ins$tut
des
Hautes
Études
de
la
Défense
Na$onale
(IHEDN,
InsPtute
of
Higher
Studies
of
NaPonal
Defence),
which
aimed
to
reduce
the
intellectual
gap
between
civilian
and
military
officials.
• A
key
constraint
is
now
imposed
by
changes
to
the
internaPonal
poliPcal
configuraPon.
Although
the
move
towards
a
mulPpolar
world
is
not
yet
complete,
it
is
raising
a
number
of
quesPons:
how
do
the
emerging
powers
define
their
defence
policy?
What
impact
does
the
financial
crisis
have
on
conflicts
and
on
military
capaciPes
(and
this
draws
in
major
quesPons
of
internaPonal
poliPcal
economy)?

3. 11/03/15
Ten
main
factors
taken
into
consideraPon
to
enhance
French
strategies
on
defence
3
Christophe-­‐Alexandre
PAILLARD
1. Conflicts
of
tomorrow.
2. Balance
between
investments,
technologies,
costs
and
the
posiPon
of
men.
3. Global
governance,
mulPpolarity,
emerging
powers:
what
kind
of
strategy
for
France
and
European
countries?
4. Environmental
strategy
and
natural
resources
(energy
security,
raw
materials,
water
supplies,
wood,
etc.)
5. Arc
of
crisis:
evoluPons,
threats,
risks.
6. Resilience.
7. PrevenPon.
8. Come
back
of
European
powers.
9. Defence
industrial
and
technological
basis,
control
of
arms’
exports.
10. Links
between
armed
forces
and
country.
See:
hTp://www.defense.gouv.fr/english/portail-­‐defense

4. 11/03/15
A
view
on
the
elaboraPon
of
defence
strategies
inside
the
French
MOD
4
Christophe-­‐Alexandre
PAILLARD
The
decision-­‐making
process
of
can
be
divided
into
four
steps:
 To
elaborate
trends
allowing
possible
scenarios
on
geopoliIcal,
operaIonal,
industrial
and
capabiliIes
tools.
 To
elaborate
a
global
strategy
for
the
MOD
classifying
scenarios
and
giving
orientaIons
to
the
future
defence
policy.
 To
contribute
to
the
definiPon
of
the
new
defence
policy
to
master
credible
strategic
visions
and
to
create
the
future
models
of
army,
capabiliIes,
forces,
operaIons,
etc.
 To
elaborate
the
new
French
military
planning
law
(LPM)
allowing
the
Treasury
to
finance
the
new
ambiIons
described
in
the
French
White
Paper
on
Defence
and
NaPonal
Security
(LBDSN)
And
two
acIviIes
to
reinforce:
 To
follow
and
to
assess
the
credibility
of
the
new
defence
strategy.
 To
update
the
defence
policy.
R3.
To
operate
forces
R1.
CapabiliPes
R2.
To
prepare
forces
R4.
To
master
key
technologies
R5.
To
define
arms’
export
policies
R6.
To
define
policies
taking
past
experiences
into
account
Process
through
core
professions
Interdepartmental
Documents
on
external
orientaPons:
President,
Parliament,
and
interdepartment
al
works:
from
the
SGDSN/
Foreign
Office/
Home
Office
ContribuPons
from
the
MOD
to
the
LBDSN
ContribuPons
from
the
MOD
to
other
documents
News
/
NaPonal
and
internaPonal
events
Use
of
resources
Changes
in
the
environment
of
the
MOD
(ex:
defence
industries)
D2.
.
To
master
resources
D3.
To
run
the
ministry
D7.
To
take
into
account
internaPonal
factors
on
the
MOD
Key
facts
and
lessons
taken
from
pracPcal
experiences
of
the
defence
policy
LPM
LBDSN
LPM
LBDSN
LPM
LBDSN
D4.
To
modernize
and
transform
the
ministry
TransformaPon:
a
work
in
progress
D1.
ElaboraPon
of
the
French
defence
policy
(including
trends
and
risk
analysis)
D1.3
DefiniPon
of
a
new
defence
and
naPonal
security
policy
D1.4
ElaboraPon
of
the
military
planning
law
(LPM)
D1.6
to
update
defence
analysis
D1.5
To
follow
and
update
defence
policies
D1.2
To
organize
global
risk
analysis
in
the
MOD
Strategic,
operaPonal,
industrial,
economic
or
scienPfic
trends
LBDSN
LPM
D1.1
To
organize
working
groups
and
global
works
on
trends
and
analysis
(role
of
the
IRSEM)
Social
and
economic
trends
(my
posiIon)
GeopoliIcal
trends
OperaIonal
trends
CapabiliIes
trends
Technological
and
scienIfic
trends
Trends
on
structures
and
organisaIons

5. 11/03/15
Official
documents
on
defence
strategy
5
Christophe-­‐Alexandre
PAILLARD
• hTp://www.livreblancdefenseetsecurite.gouv.fr/
• hTp://www.defense.gouv.fr/portail-­‐defense/enjeux2/poliPque-­‐de-­‐defense/la-­‐loi-­‐
de-­‐programmaPon-­‐militaire-­‐lpm-­‐2014-­‐2019/la-­‐loi-­‐de-­‐programmaPon-­‐militaire-­‐
lpm-­‐2014-­‐2019

6. 11/03/15
Departments
of
the
French
Mod
working
on
trends
and
risk
analysis
6
Christophe-­‐Alexandre
PAILLARD
DGRIS
(Strategic and international relation general directorate)
SGA
(General Secretariat
for Administration)
DGA
(General Delegation
for Armaments)
EMA
Minister &
Cabinet Chief of Staff
CEMA
DRHMD
Human Resources
DAF
Financial resources
DAJ
Legal department
Etc.
DRM
Armies
CICDE
DEMS
IRSEM
Etc.

7. 11/03/15
What
IRSEM
is
doing
on
risk
analysis
and
to
enhance
defence
strategies
7
Christophe-­‐Alexandre
PAILLARD
• The
Ins$tut
de
Recherche
Stratégique
de
l’Ecole
Militaire
(IRSEM)
is
a
French
research
centre
with
the
status
of
naPonal
service
aTached
to
the
DGRIS.
Its
goal
is
to
support
and
promote
research
in
the
area
of
defence
and
security.
• Its
producPon
is
focused
on
internaPonal
defence
and
security.
It
is
openly
accessible
worldwide.
PublicaPons
cover
Armament
and
Defence
economics,
Defence
studies,
Strategic
studies,
and
Defence
and
Society.
• The
IRSEM
provides
academic
and
financial
support
to
young
researchers,
following
doctoral
and
post-­‐doctoral
studies.
• The
IRSEM
results
from
the
reform
process
that
began
with
the
creaPon
of
the
French
Higher
Council
for
Strategic
Training
and
Research
(Conseil
Supérieur
de
la
Forma$onet
de
la
Recherche
Stratégique
-­‐
CSFRS).
It
works
through
the
French
Consistency
CommiTee
for
Strategic
Research
and
ForecasPng
(Comité
De
Cohérence
de
la
Recherche
Stratégique
et
de
la
Prospec$ve
-­‐
CCRP)
and
is
responsible
at
the
French
Ministry
of
Defence
for
steering
and
facilitaPng
the
approach
to
forecasPng
and
strategic
research.
See:
hTp://www.defense.gouv.fr/irsem

8. 11/03/15
Defence
economics:
what
kind
of
analysis?
8
Christophe-­‐Alexandre
PAILLARD
To
use
informaPon
To
obtain
informaPon
Offensive
Defensive
Influence
and
visibility
To monitor
strategic
trends and
studies
Economic
security
Prospective
and
strategies
Deepening
knowledge
Alert
AcPon
ProtecPon
Information/Training

9. 11/03/15
Key
strategic
issues:
food
for
thought?
9
Christophe-­‐Alexandre
PAILLARD
• AnP-­‐missile
• Cyber
• Key
technologies
• Strategic
materials
• DITB
Socio-­‐economic
trends
on
defence
Defence
policy
Technological
and
industrial
trends
• General
strategy
• Military
strategy
• Intelligence
• NGO
• Gender
• Economic
and
financial
crisis
• Environment
• UAVs
• Ethic
• Foreign
military
strategies

10. 11/03/15
Outside
the
MOD,
the
example
of
France
Stratégie
10
Christophe-­‐Alexandre
PAILLARD
• France
Stratégie
assists
the
government
in
determining
the
main
direcPons
for
the
future
of
the
NaPon
and
the
medium
and
long
term
objecPves
for
its
economic,
social,
cultural
and
environmental
development.
It
contributes,
moreover,
to
the
preparaPon
of
governmental
reforms.
• France
Stratégie
works
on
the
four
following
subjects:
economics
and
finance;
sustainable
development;
social
affairs;
labour
and
employment.
• France
Stratégie
works
in
coordinaPon
with
a
network
of
eight
organisaPons,
specializing
each
on
a
specific
topic
such
as
the
CEPII,
research
centre
in
internaPonal
economics.
See:
hTp://blog.en.strategie.gouv.fr/