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Developing Capability Portfolios: 10 Trends  An Idiosyncratic and Iconoclastic View Stephan De Spiegeleire Senior Scientis...
Capability Portfolios – New Kid on the Block
‘ Portfolio’-Thinking under Fire
The essence of portfolio theory
Trend 1 –  Broadening Definition of ‘Capability' D O T M L P F
Planning for National Security – The New Dutch Whole-of-Government Approach 1. Government-wide analysis A. Strategic fores...
Government-Wide (Meta-)Foresight
Government-Wide National Risk Assessment Methodology
Government-Wide National Risk Assessment –  Assessing likelihood Hazards Class Quantitative (%) Qualitative description of...
Government-Wide National Risk Assessment – Assessing Impact
Government-Wide National Risk Assessment – 2008 Incident Scenarios <ul><li>Flu Pandemic Mild </li></ul><ul><li>Flu Pandemi...
Government-Wide National Risk Assessment – 2008 Likelihood scores
Government-Wide National Risk Assessment – 2008 Impact per Scenario (Overall)
Impact per Scenario – Breakdown
Government-Wide National Risk Assessment – 2008  Risk diagram
Government-Wide National Security Planning –  Planning for National Security (CBP) National security planning method Fores...
Trend 2 – Back on the Security Chain From response to prevention (but not much further)
Trend 3 – Shifts in Planning Horizons Away from Presentism?  Personal and notional estimates !!! <ul><li>Defence Planning-...
Trend 4 – National Security Model Towards resilience?
Trend 5 – Scientific base Broadening scientific capability base
SAS-066  Joint Operations 2030 – Long Term Scientific Study <ul><li>What is it ? </li></ul><ul><li>A study that will offer...
A Strategic Planning Approach…
JO2030 approach… Long Term Capability Requirements Long Term  Requirements Study JO2030 Thematic  Approach JO2030  Capabil...
How was Joint Operations 2030 implemented? <ul><li>‘ Realised Strategy’ Approach </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Combined ‘Intended’...
The Themes Small Team Operations Standing  Arrangements Political Transformation Blurring of Peace & Conflict Cost  Escala...
JO2030 Outputs Structure Theme Theme Issue Issue Issue Issue Issue Capability Capability Capability Capability Capability ...
TiCV:  3 - 4 - 4 - 141008 JO 2030 Theme-Issue-Capabilities sheet  Issue :  Future structures   The need for agile, flexibl...
 
Solution Solicitation Sessions <ul><li>Engaging with the Experts </li></ul><ul><li>Develop Solution Approaches or Systems ...
Solution Approaches / Systems Concepts <ul><li>Description of solution concept  </li></ul><ul><ul><li>What does it do and ...
Data mined T I Cs http://wordle.net
Trend 6 – Foresight and Planning More Insight and ‘Frank’ness <ul><ul><li>   from “plan and pray” to “sense and respond” ...
Paul Davis' Uncertainty-sensitive planning
Trend 7 – Confronting Uncertainty Head-On Rumsfeldian uncertainty matrix – ideal typical (left) vs. reality? (right) Tradi...
The ‘Butterfly’-Model outside-in future environments => capabilities inside-out what are / do we want to be good at? High-...
The ‘Butterfly’-Model outside-in inside-out what are / do we want to be good at? vision future  me’s integration Purposive...
What Can We Learn from Strategic Planning in the Business World?
Canonical Post-Cold-War Defence Planning (1/1) Generic Task Lists Political Guidance (Ambition level,  missions) Analysis ...
Canonical Post-Cold-War Defence Planning (2/2) ? Generic Task Lists Political Guidance (Ambition level,  missions) Analysi...
The ‘Butterfly’-Model outside-in future environments => capabilities vision future me’s integration inside-out what are we...
The ‘Butterfly’-Model outside-in future environments => capabilities inside-out what are / do we want to be good at? visio...
Trend 8 –  From Marginal to Systemic Defence Planning (Risk Assessment, Balance of Investment)
Trend 9 – Towards performance management
Trend 10 – Towards Strategic Defence Management High-Level  Policy Parameters Strategic Defence Management Strategic inten...
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10 Trends in Capability Planning for Defence and Security

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10 Trends in Capability Planning for Defence and Security

  1. 1. Developing Capability Portfolios: 10 Trends An Idiosyncratic and Iconoclastic View Stephan De Spiegeleire Senior Scientist The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies NATO International Conference on Defense Capability Portfolio Analysis Paris May 12-14, 2009
  2. 2. Capability Portfolios – New Kid on the Block
  3. 3. ‘ Portfolio’-Thinking under Fire
  4. 4. The essence of portfolio theory
  5. 5. Trend 1 – Broadening Definition of ‘Capability' D O T M L P F
  6. 6. Planning for National Security – The New Dutch Whole-of-Government Approach 1. Government-wide analysis A. Strategic foresight B. Horizon-scanning B. Thematic in-depth foresight Report strategic foresight Process Product Decision- making Report Threat-picture Report themes and scenarios Cabinet decides on themes for thematic in-depth analyses C. National risk-assessment National Risk Picture 3. Follow-up Legislation Risk prioritization Measures Policy Planning assumptions programme tasks and capabilities 2. Strategic planning Required capabilies Current capabiliities Capabilities gap Capability- requirement Werk - Cabinet selects priorities on basis of national risk picture Cabinet decides on capabilities to be strengthened through normal budget system
  7. 7. Government-Wide (Meta-)Foresight
  8. 8. Government-Wide National Risk Assessment Methodology
  9. 9. Government-Wide National Risk Assessment – Assessing likelihood Hazards Class Quantitative (%) Qualitative description of danger A < 0,05 Highly improbable B 0.05 – 0.5 Improbable C 0.5 – 5 Possible D 5 – 50 Probable E 50 – 100 Highly probable Dangers Class Qualitative description of danger A No concrete indication, and event is thought to be inconceivable B No concrete indication, but event is conceivable C No concrete indication, but event is conceivable D Event is thought to be quite probable E Concrete indication event will occur
  10. 10. Government-Wide National Risk Assessment – Assessing Impact
  11. 11. Government-Wide National Risk Assessment – 2008 Incident Scenarios <ul><li>Flu Pandemic Mild </li></ul><ul><li>Flu Pandemic Serious </li></ul><ul><li>Heatwave/drought </li></ul><ul><li>Flooding EDO </li></ul><ul><li>Flooding DR14 </li></ul><ul><li>Country-wide blackout </li></ul><ul><li>Intentional electricity disruption </li></ul><ul><li>Oil geopolitical </li></ul><ul><li>Animal activism </li></ul><ul><li>Poltical salafism </li></ul><ul><li>Left extremism </li></ul><ul><li>Right extremism </li></ul><ul><li>Muslim extremism </li></ul>
  12. 12. Government-Wide National Risk Assessment – 2008 Likelihood scores
  13. 13. Government-Wide National Risk Assessment – 2008 Impact per Scenario (Overall)
  14. 14. Impact per Scenario – Breakdown
  15. 15. Government-Wide National Risk Assessment – 2008 Risk diagram
  16. 16. Government-Wide National Security Planning – Planning for National Security (CBP) National security planning method Foresight (Scenarios,…) Values Interests ForAffairs Interior Defence Who? ... With what ? Capabilities What? Tasks Analysis Prevention Response Evaluation What? Task fields Risks
  17. 17. Trend 2 – Back on the Security Chain From response to prevention (but not much further)
  18. 18. Trend 3 – Shifts in Planning Horizons Away from Presentism? Personal and notional estimates !!! <ul><li>Defence Planning-Horizons: </li></ul><ul><li>current </li></ul><ul><li>medium-term </li></ul><ul><li>long-term </li></ul>YEAR 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 10s Low Medium High
  19. 19. Trend 4 – National Security Model Towards resilience?
  20. 20. Trend 5 – Scientific base Broadening scientific capability base
  21. 21. SAS-066 Joint Operations 2030 – Long Term Scientific Study <ul><li>What is it ? </li></ul><ul><li>A study that will offer insights into the impact that advancing technologies could have on a range of the capabilities that could be required in future NATO led Joint Operations. </li></ul><ul><li>What are the objectives ? </li></ul><ul><li>Consider the impact of future global security environments on joint ops across a range of representative scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>Determine types of capabilities and projected capability gaps that may exist in these future environments </li></ul><ul><li>Consider how applied technologies will impact future capabilities </li></ul><ul><li>Identify system concepts to close capability gaps or significantly enhance capabilities </li></ul><ul><li>Who is the Lead Nation ? </li></ul><ul><li>Canada. </li></ul><ul><li>Who are the participants ? </li></ul><ul><li>To date they include : </li></ul><ul><li>Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Belgium, Netherlands, Norway, Romania, Slovak Republic, Turkey, USA, ACT, NAAG, NIAG, NATO DCS, NURC </li></ul>The 5 Phases of the JO 2030 Study : PHASE 1 Define the strategic environment, scenarios, & CONOPs PHASE 2 Explore future capability needs through a Thematic Analytical approach PHASE 3 Identify capabilities needed in 2030 that derive from the Thematic Analysis and ACT’s Long Term Requirements Study PHASE 4 Out reach and search for solutions PHASE 5 Hold Multinational Workshop and write the final report Timelines: Phase 1 began in the fall 2006, the study is currently nearing the end of Phase IV and has a projected completion date of Dec 2009 . Mr Paul Massel – DRDC-CORA CORT Team Leader JO 2030 Study Leader [email_address]
  22. 22. A Strategic Planning Approach…
  23. 23. JO2030 approach… Long Term Capability Requirements Long Term Requirements Study JO2030 Thematic Approach JO2030 Capabilities JO2030 Issues Capability Requirements Solution Concepts
  24. 24. How was Joint Operations 2030 implemented? <ul><li>‘ Realised Strategy’ Approach </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Combined ‘Intended’ and ‘Emergent’ approaches </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Thematic method </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Themes developed (each detailed in point paper) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Eighteen themes identified (summary available) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Coverage assumed not to be comprehensive </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Issues </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Developed from each Theme </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Problem statements (60) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Capabilities </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Driven by Issues </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Describe desirable outcome </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Theme, Issue, Capabilities (TICs) generated (355) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Solution approaches and system concepts </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Developed with SMEs </li></ul></ul>
  25. 25. The Themes Small Team Operations Standing Arrangements Political Transformation Blurring of Peace & Conflict Cost Escalation Different C2 Paradigms Staying Power Moral, Mental & Physical Domain Planning Under Deep Uncertainty Dual-use Technology Space is Opening Up Regeneration Non-Military, Non violent threats Coalition Operations Changing Man-Machine Interaction Structure Technology Economics Focus and Coherence Information & Media Strategic Compression Super Empowered Individuals Environment Long Term Commitments Political Level
  26. 26. JO2030 Outputs Structure Theme Theme Issue Issue Issue Issue Issue Capability Capability Capability Capability Capability Capability Capability Capability Capability Capability Capability Capability T I C
  27. 27. TiCV: 3 - 4 - 4 - 141008 JO 2030 Theme-Issue-Capabilities sheet Issue : Future structures The need for agile, flexible and adaptive answers to (intrinsically unpredictable) changes in the security environment warrants a radical rethink of how armed forces are structured and maintained. Models from the business world may be examined for applicability. Outsourcing of services and reliance on market adaptation mechanisms must be considered Capability : List : A Theme : Planning Under Deep Uncertainty In the past, where conditions were relatively certain, Alliance defence and operational planning processes were deliberate and reflected ‘strategy as design’. The fluidity and pace of change within the emerging globalised environment will increasingly demand that planning for Alliance operations will be done under conditions of deep uncertainty. Deep uncertainty is present when decision makers do not know or cannot agree on: the current system model of how things fit together, prior probabilities, timing and cost. This will require a new suite of methods and analytical tools to support decision makers in a ‘strategy as process’ manner to develop capabilities that are flexible, adaptable and robust .
  28. 29. Solution Solicitation Sessions <ul><li>Engaging with the Experts </li></ul><ul><li>Develop Solution Approaches or Systems Concepts for T I Cs </li></ul><ul><li>Outreach via: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>RTO Panels (coord’ by TC-730) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Nationally organised events </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Personal networks </li></ul></ul>
  29. 30. Solution Approaches / Systems Concepts <ul><li>Description of solution concept </li></ul><ul><ul><li>What does it do and what does it look like? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>How do we get there? </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Current status </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Early indicators / Critical points </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Parallels / Precedents </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Technical category / operational domain </li></ul><ul><li>Enablers / Drivers </li></ul><ul><li>Acceptability & Affordability </li></ul><ul><li>Controversy </li></ul><ul><li>Leaders in the field (Studies, links, references) </li></ul>
  30. 31. Data mined T I Cs http://wordle.net
  31. 32. Trend 6 – Foresight and Planning More Insight and ‘Frank’ness <ul><ul><li> from “plan and pray” to “sense and respond” </li></ul></ul>Hind-sight Side-sight
  32. 33. Paul Davis' Uncertainty-sensitive planning
  33. 34. Trend 7 – Confronting Uncertainty Head-On Rumsfeldian uncertainty matrix – ideal typical (left) vs. reality? (right) Traditional ways of dealing with uncertainty
  34. 35. The ‘Butterfly’-Model outside-in future environments => capabilities inside-out what are / do we want to be good at? High-level policy guidance integration future me’s
  35. 36. The ‘Butterfly’-Model outside-in inside-out what are / do we want to be good at? vision future me’s integration Purposive strategic planning Adaptive strategic planning back-to-front Front-to-Back
  36. 37. What Can We Learn from Strategic Planning in the Business World?
  37. 38. Canonical Post-Cold-War Defence Planning (1/1) Generic Task Lists Political Guidance (Ambition level, missions) Analysis of the Security Environment Technology Foresight Set of Planning Situations Capabilities Capabilities Capabilities Resource constraints Concurrency Testing Mission-to-Task Decomposition Mission-to-Task Decomposition Mission-to-Task Decomposition Prioritized Capabilities PS 1 PS 2 PS N
  38. 39. Canonical Post-Cold-War Defence Planning (2/2) ? Generic Task Lists Political Guidance (Ambition level, missions) Analysis of the Security Environment Technology Foresight Set of Planning Situations Capabilities Capabilities Capabilities Resource constraints Concurrency Testing Mission-to-Task Decomposition Mission-to-Task Decomposition Mission-to-Task Decomposition Prioritized Capabilities PS 1 PS 2 PS N
  39. 40. The ‘Butterfly’-Model outside-in future environments => capabilities vision future me’s integration inside-out what are we (/do we want to be) good at?
  40. 41. The ‘Butterfly’-Model outside-in future environments => capabilities inside-out what are / do we want to be good at? vision integration (future) capability requirements - DOTMLPFI future me’s
  41. 42. Trend 8 – From Marginal to Systemic Defence Planning (Risk Assessment, Balance of Investment)
  42. 43. Trend 9 – Towards performance management
  43. 44. Trend 10 – Towards Strategic Defence Management High-Level Policy Parameters Strategic Defence Management Strategic intent Capability-based Planning Performance Management

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