A presentation made by Brian Harger and Sherrie Taylor at the Illinois Association for Institutional Research 2017 Annual Forum on the role and process of environmental scanning in higher education.

1. 11/09/2017 I-AIR Forum
Environmental Scanning
Brian Harger and Sherrie Taylor
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2017 Annual Forum
NIU Naperville Conference Center
Thursday November 9, 2017

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Definition
An Environmental Scan identifies and analyzes significant
global, national, state and local trends (past, present and
future) as they relate to the subject institution and its
constituents.
• The analysis identifies institutional or regional uniqueness
and competitive advantages.
• It provides a broader context for the planning process.
• It identifies important trends and developments likely to
impact implementation of planning.
• It identifies opportunities and potential partners.
• It helps institutional planners identify or validate relevant
metrics to measure effectiveness.
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Challenge of 60 by 25
• Illinois students should be graduating high school ready with the
knowledge and skills necessary to be successful in life after high
school - college and career.
• Today all high school graduates need some postsecondary education
and/or training if they are to have options and opportunities in the job
market.
• In Illinois, 8 of 10 employers say they need employees with some
postsecondary education.
• Currently only 40% of Illinois residents have a high-quality post-
secondary college or career credential.
• The 60 by 25 Network is dedicated to helping achieve the State’s
goal of 60% of residents with a post-secondary degree by 2025.
http://www.60by25.org
http://dashboard.60by25.org
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Process
“A plan without a vision gets lost in the
urgency of the present…
…But a vision with a plan can change
the world.”
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• Determine a format. Is
there an established
format that needs to be
followed?
• Data collection and
analysis.
• Report creation and
presentation.
• Follow-on tasks: e.g.
dashboards,
performance metrics
and tracking.

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Topics Covered
Demographic Trends
• Population Growth
• Age, Gender, Race and Ethnicity
• Migration and Nativity
• English-Proficiency
Social Characteristics
• Families and Households
• Education Enrollment and Attainment
• School (K-12) Performance
• Public Services and Safety
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Topics Covered
Economic Characteristics
• Employment and Labor Market
• Workforce Characteristics
• Wages, Income and Poverty
• Commuting Patterns
Business and Industry
• Business Vitality and Major Employers
• Prominent Industry Sectors
• Industry and Occupational Employment
• Current and Projected Demand for Workers
• Education and Experience Requirements by Occupation
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Topics Covered
Physical Environment
• Air and Water Quality
• Food Deserts
• Public Health
Fiscal Environment
• Student Financial Aid
• State and Local Revenue Trends
• Capital Improvements
• Retirements and Public Pension Costs
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Data Collection
Determine structure/topics.
Maintain datasets in a single Excel workbook with
source documentation.
Organize by topical categories by tab color.
Create visualizations (graphs, tables, maps).
Connect the dots and integrate the data (analysis).
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9. 11/09/2017 I-AIR Forum
Information Resources
Public Sources
• U.S. Census Bureau
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
• Illinois Board of Higher Education
• Illinois Community College Board
Reports from other organizations and institutions
• Annie E. Casey Foundation
• Pew Research Center
Surveys (Internal and External)
Administrative Records
Testimonials
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Geographic Challenges
Typically, Community College
districts in Illinois all or part of a
number of local government
jurisdictions (counties,
municipalities or school
districts).
Because of this, it is often
difficult to find data that
conforms to the district, so data
for larger areas must be used.
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Significant Trends
After several decades of modest growth, Illinois’ population began
declining in 2013.
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185,003
156,918
158,522
150,000
160,000
170,000
180,000
190,000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Illinois Births
• Two factors seem to have
precipitated this: declining birth rates
and lower numbers of foreign
migrants.
• Although Illinois has experienced a
net out-flow of domestic migrants
over the past two decades, the in-
flow foreign migrants this has
compensated until recently.
• The decline in birth rates since the
recession has contributed to the
overall population decline as well.

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Significant Trends
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10.6%
9.6%
8.4%
8%
9%
10%
11%
1,000,000
1,100,000
1,200,000
1,300,000
1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2030
PercentofTotalPopulation
Illinois Population 18 - 24 Years Old
Source: CGS analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau and
Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., 2017.
• The decline in youths is
already being felt in the school
systems with declining
enrollments in the primary
grades.
• It also has implications for
higher education and the
workforce as the future
“traditional” student age
population is projected to
decline and there are fewer
young workers available to
replace those retiring.

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Significant Trends
The economic recovery in Illinois continues to lag behind the U.S.
and the surrounding States.
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• Illinois’ personal income growth (0.7
percent) has lagged far behind the
U.S. average (1.3%) since the start of
the recession.
• Although wages and salaries have
rebounded since the recession,
government transfer payments (i.e.
retirement benefits, disability, income
maintenance, healthcare (Medicare
and Medicaid), income maintenance,
UI, veterans benefits) are also higher
than before the recession.

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Significant Trends
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• Income distribution in Illinois is
typical of most urban, industrial
states with a higher proportion of
households in the lower brackets
(41.7% @ $50,000 or below) than in
the middle or higher brackets.
• Household debt is also near the
level it was before the last
recession.*
• As households continue to struggle
with debt and slower income growth,
their discretionary spending
(including education) will continue to
be restrained.
* Link: https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.html
Chart Link: http://www.visualcapitalist.com/household-income-distribution-u-s-
state/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=SocialWarfare

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Significant Trends
Illinois’ fiscal challenges continue despite the recent budget
resolution.
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• Illinois is one of only two states with
aggregate shortfalls exceeding 5% of
total expenses, as well as annual
deficits in each of the past 15 years.
• The underfunding the Illinois pension
system continues to plague Illinois
recovery.
• Bond ratings (including State colleges
and universities) continue to be
downgraded; adding to operating costs.
• Higher education funding will continue
to be negatively impacted until Illinois is
back on stable financial ground.
Source: The Pew Charitable Trusts, Fiscal 50: State Trends and Analysis, 2017.
Illinois

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Significant Trends
Most of the demand for workers over the next decade will stem from the
need to fill existing positions rather than from new jobs.
• Employers are facing a wave of retirements. Job openings created by
workers leaving existing positions will outpace new job openings by a ratio of
about 2 to 1 overall.
• With two-thirds of projected jobs requiring a high school diploma or GED,
Community Colleges can play a role in helping students plan careers that
begin with an entry-level job but grow into careers with expanded earnings
potential.
• As institutions of higher education continue to partner with area employers
and offer education and training programs for their students, the challenge
will be to help connect students with local employers and actual job
opportunities.
• Automation and new technologies (e.g. AI and IoT) are expected to have a
dramatic impact on employment and job-skills requirements, but the true
nature and scope of the impact is unclear.
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Significant Trends
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Selected Manufacturing Job Openings (Growth vs. Replacement)
State of Illinois (2014 – 2024)
Description
Average Annual Job Openings
(2014 – 2024) Due to:
Pct. Over 55
Years of
Age1 (2016)
Probability of
Automation2
Growth Replacement Total
General & Operations Managers 42,732 147,453 190,185 18.5% 16.0%
Industrial Engineers 3,605 19,327 22,932 24.1% 2.9%
Mechanical Engineers 3,628 19,201 22,829 22.6% 1.1%
Industrial Machinery Mechanics 2,392 10,833 13,225 23.9% 67.0%
Team assemblers 4,130 12,072 16,202 20.1% 97.0%
Machinists 5,328 17,249 22,577 29.8% 65.0%
Welders, cutters, solderers, and brazers 1,364 9,946 11,310 15.4% 94.0%
CNC Machine Tool Operators 128 206 334 18.4% 86.0%
CNC Machine Tool Programmers 30 50 80 18.4% 36.0%
Inspectors, testers, sorters, samplers, and weighers 2,962 6,259 9,221 25.9% 98.0%
1 Employed persons by detailed occupation and age (data for the US).
2 Probability of jobs being diminished or eliminated by automation. Calculations based on Frey and Osborne using data from the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics.
Source: Illinois Department of Employment Security, Labor Market Information Unit, 2017.

18. 11/09/2017 I-AIR Forum
Questions?
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Brian Harger Sherrie Taylor
bharger@niu.edu taylor@niu.edu