L'éléphant (blanc) dans la pièce: Les investissements publics des États dans les infrastructure de l'amont fossile (QUébec, Canada, USA et UK) sont une injustice faite aux générations montantes. Un diaporama éclairant de Jeremy Leggett, juin 2018

1. The week of the
white elephants
The UK, US, and Canadian
governments all tried to bail out
uneconomic and / or stranded
fossil fuel and nuclear projects
with many billions in public funds

2. They hope to sell the Trans Mountain pipeline later. Analysts doubt they
can. Protestors label PM Trudeau a climate criminal.
Canadian government bails out a stranded Kinder
Morgan oil pipeline system for US $3.5 bn
7th Jan
2016
29th May
2018
Future Today

3. Proposals in a leaked memo include forcing utilities to buy electricity
from coal and nuclear operators for 2 years.
Trump orders emergency federal action to stem
coal and nuclear plant shutdowns
7th Jan
2016
1st Jun
2018
Future Today

4. Total cost of Wylfa, to be shared with Hitachi and Japanese government:
£16bn. Price of power: £75-77 MWh …more than solar & wind.
In remarkable U-turn, UK government agrees to
£5bn public stake in a Welsh nuclear power station
7th Jan
2016
4th Jun
2018

5. All very strange things to do, really, when….
to take just two examples for each act
from among the many such on Future Now

6. The Spanish oil company “is the first among its peers” to do this,
Bloomberg reports. Production will be limited to current levels.
Repsol decides to end pursuit of oil and gas growth
and chase energy transition instead
7th Jan
2016
15th May
2018
Masayoshi Son, Softbank founder and CEO

7. 7th Jan
2016
16th Nov
2017
Norwegian Central Bank, manager of the oil fund,
tells government it should divest from oil and gas
Biggest holding end 2016:
$5.3 bn in Shell

8. Wind and solar tariffs have fallen to around Rs 2.4 per unit. Coal
averages Rs 3.7. Of India’s 197 GW of coal plants, c. 40 GW are stranded.
“Cheap renewable energy is killing India’s coal-
based power plants” – 20% of plants are stranded
7th Jan
2016
9th May
2018

9. Good news stories from Kentucky show that “mine work today requires
mechanical and technical skills that are transferable to new industries.”
US wind, solar, & storage companies are “recruiting
coal miners for their work ethics & high-tech skills”
7th Jan
2016
9th May
2018

10. 150 more weld failures mean the nuclear plant scheduled online in 2012
at €3.5bn is now probably delayed to 2020, at €10.5bn and counting.
Nuclear regulator fears “epidemic” safety-culture
collapse at Flamanville: disaster looms for EDF
7th Jan
2016
31st May
2018

11. 7th Jan
2016
6th Aug
2016 “Hinkley Pointless”
“Britain should
cancel its nuclear
white elephant
and spend the
billions on making
renewables work”

12. And that is before we even consider
climate imperatives….

13. Michael Mann et al’s temperature reconstruction from 1999 in blue.
PAGES2K temperature reconstruction 2013 in green. Data record in red.
The “hockey stick” of global average temperature
20 years on: when being right must hurt
7th Jan
2016
20th Apr
2018

14. So an international group of scientists warn, after the most
comprehensive study yet: geographic ranges of 31,000 insect species.
Climate change will cause “major insect wipeout”
with “far-reaching disruption to life on Earth”
7th Jan
2016
17th May
2018
Future Today

15. So estimates a Stanford University economic study published in Nature.
The cost of action to hit the target would be $0.5 tn globally.
Hitting 1.5˚C Paris target will save the world c. $30
trillion in climate-related damages this century
7th Jan
2016
23rd May
2018
Future Today

16. “Especially storms of previously unobserved strength.” Very bad news
for the insurance industry, and all who live in the cyclone belt.
“Global warming is making tropical cyclones
stronger”, renowned climatologists conclude
7th Jan
2016
30th May
2018
Future Today

17. The effect of current policies has the world heading for around 3
degrees of global warming by 2100.
The Paris challenge: current policies come nowhere
close to the target, and pledges fall well short
7th Jan
2016
1st May
2018

18. They are solar, lighting, data centres and networks, and EVs. Particularly
problematic is that energy efficiency improvements have slowed.
IEA publishes a new monitoring tool showing only 4
of 38 energy sectors are on track with Paris targets
7th Jan
2016
29th May
2018
Future Today
On track: 4
Much more effort needed: 23
Significantly off track: 11

19. “Because so much energy comes from coal, slight fluctuations from year
to year can wipe out massive gains in renewables.”
The Paris challenge: renewables growth and retreat
from coal too slow …& oil & gas continue to grow
7th Jan
2016
1st May
2018

20. Renewables must be scaled up at least six times
faster to meet the Paris Agreement target: IRENA
7th Jan
2016
17th Apr
2018
Additional costs: $1.7 tn p.a. in 2050. But savings from < air pollution, <
environmental damage, & > health = $6 tn p.a. in 2050.
Source: IRENA’s
“Roadmap to 2050”
(85% in
power sector)

21. Rana Adib, exec secretary of REN21, warns of “complacency” …“we are
coasting along as if we had all the time in the world. Sadly, we don’t.”
REN21: Renewables growth in heating, cooling, and
transport well behind electricity generation sector
7th Jan
2016
4th Jun
2018
Future Today
Renewable energy in total final energy consumption, by sector, 2015
Source: REN21
Renewables 2018
Global Status Report

22. This is 3x the investment in fossil fuel generating capacity and more than
2x fossil-fuel and nuclear power capacity combined. ….But not enough.
Investment in renewables in 2017 was less than it
was in 2011 …it has essentially been flat since then
7th Jan
2016
4th Jun
2018
Global investment in renewable power and fuels
Source: REN21 Renewables 2018 Global Status Report
excluding hydro >50MW
…at least $310 bn if included

23. Just the 3 sad acts by the US, UK and
Canadian governments considered here,
with conservative assumptions, would be
set to waste the equivalent of some 10%
of the global renewables investment pool
Which is difficult indeed to understand
when you consider, for example, that….

24. 66% would be happy to have a large renewables project locally.
74% are concerned about climate change.
UK Government poll finds a record 85% public
support for renewable energy, and 87% for solar
7th Jan
2016
26th Apr
2018
Onshore wind:
not so unpopular after all

25. The conclusion of an international group of scientists systematically
working through the counter-arguments of a pro-nuclear group.
“There are no roadblocks on the way to a 100%
renewable future”: all issues solvable at low cost
7th Jan
2016
17th May
2018
Future Today

26. Please follow the ongoing drama in this, the
most important story in the world, on
Future Today
www.jeremyleggett.net