The truth-stranger-then-fiction rollercoaster story of solar PV in the UK during the explosive growth of solar globally this century

1. Opportunity Despite
History and future of the
UK solar PV market
in pictures and charts
Jeremy Leggett

2. This slide show is for the 40th anniversary
of the UK Solar Trade Association
and is the basis for a keynote speech
at the celebration thereof
in City Hall, London, 5th July 2018.

3. 7th Jan
2016
May
2001
The global PV market in 2001 is a tiny 334 megawatts – the size of
a single solar park today (largest to date 750 MW)
A beginning? Energy Minister Peter Hain announces
£3 million to help start a UK solar PV market
Just a start
“This Government is serious
about solar energy. I want
to see thousands, rising to
tens of thousands of roofs
covered by solar panels
every year over the next ten
years, rivalling the large
programmes in Germany
and Japan.”

4. 7th Jan
2016
Sep
2004
The global solar PV market passes 1 gigawatt in 2004, most of it in
Germany and Japan. The UK solar market is still negligible.
A lucky break? PM Tony Blair, seeking positive PR
during an unpopular war, visits a solar company

5. Rethoric consistent with the Labour government’s
appreciated of the climate-change threat
7th Jan
2016
Sep
2004
But no follow up: the government drip feeds the embryonic UK industry
small grants, while the German feed-in tariff is building an industry.
Tony Blair speaking to the
assembled national media
pool in the Solarcentury
office:
“We could achieve a
virtually zero-carbon energy
system in the long term. This
is technologically and
economically feasible.”

6. 1949
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
250
200
150
100
50
0
Pricein$/m(mbtu)
4th April
2014
Fossil fuel indices
Solar PV
From 2006, average solar PV prices plunge as (non
UK) government support drives manufacturing scale
7th Jan
2016
2006
to
2014
As Alliance Bernstein analysts put
it: “Welcome to the Terrordome”

7. 1975 2015200519951985
50
40
20
30
10
80
60
70
90
100
$USD/W
30
10
20
50
40
60
2018
Solarcentury
1998
Incorporated
26 May 1998
Global
market
doubles
8 times
2000 - 2016
Globalmarket180MW
Globalmarketc.100GW
The global market soars within a decade from
almost nothing to more than 60 GW a year
7th Jan
2016
1998 to
2015
The story of solar PV in the UK is not of failure to build a market. It is of
failure to capitalize on opportunities inherent in a global megatrend.

8. David Cameron, leader of the Opposition and
future PM, visits a solar company
7th Jan
2016
Mar
2006
He criticises the Labour government’s failure to seize the solar
opportunity, and promises this will change under the Conservatives.

9. UK’s Labour government, after much pressure over
>10 years, finally announces a feed-in tariff for solar
7th Jan
2016
Jan
2010
Germany has had one since 1994. The global solar PV market in 2010 is
17 GW as a result of their effort, and Japan’s. And China is scaling up.
Solarcentury housing association installation

10. Conservative - LibDem coalition takes over as UK
government: a chance for Cameron to deliver
7th Jan
2016
May
2010
At first the industry is optimistic. Here, in Opposition, new Energy
Minister Greg Barker is happy to sign our petition-on-a-solar-tile.

11. Cameron & Osborne tell 18 founders of fast-growth
SMEs, that they are the flip-side of austerity
7th Jan
2016
Nov
2010
Jeremy Leggett of Solarcentury is one. He observes that, on solar, there
seems to be a slight disconnect between this thinking and policymaking.

12. HMG ambush cuts the feed-in tariff for domestic
roofs, with 6 weeks notice. Anguish in the industry.
7th Jan
2016
Oct
2011
High-level informants inside government confide that this cut is aimed
at maiming or killing the UK solar industry: offshore wind wins, we lose.
The solar
industry
demonstrates
opposite the
House of
Commons

14. Ed Miliband, Labour leader, seizes the PR
opportunity, speaking to solar industry workers
7th Jan
2016
Oct
2011

16. Labour front benchers, Green MP Caroline Lucas,
and solar leaders deliver a petition to No.10.
7th Jan
2016
Dec
2011

17. 7th Jan
2016
Dec 2011
to
Mar 2012
Two solar companies & FoE take UK government to
the High Court over feed-in tariff cuts. And win.

18. A win in court, but still companies go bankrupt.
Many jobs are lost.
But the government does not kill the market
because the cost of PV has fallen so far that
Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROCs)
allow solar economics to work

19. Confidential
Southwick Solar Farm
48 MWp
2nd Mar
2016
2nd Mar
2016
xForced by dysfunctional policymaking to operate
in the worst conditions of the year
2014
and
2015
Chediston Solar Park
2nd Mar
2016
2nd Mar
2016
xAn industry forced by dysfunctional policymaking to
operate in the worst conditions of the year
2013
to
2015
The feed-in tariff (2012) and ROC subsidies (2013 on) step down each
year at the end of the FY in March …meaning installation in winter.
A good day at Chediston

20. 2nd Mar
2016
2nd Mar
2016
xRain or snow turn bad days into scenes resembling
World War One winter battlefields.
2013
to
2015

21. Confidential
Southwick Solar Farm
48 MWp
Eynsham, Oxfordshire
2nd Mar
2016
2nd Mar
2016
xA typical solar farm under construction in a time of
biblical flooding …probably climate-change related
Q1
2014

22. Eynsham
2nd Mar
2016
2nd Mar
2016
xThis is what it will look like later in the year.
It is in David Cameron’s constituency.
2014

23. UK Government’s Solar Strategy: emphasis on
rooftop solar, 1 GW promised on government estate
7th Jan
2016
Apr
2014
Energy minister Barker claims c. 250,000 hectares of south-facing
commercial rooftops will help HMG hit its target of 20GW PV by 2020.
Greg Barker, Energy Minister

24. UK Government quietly drops its plan
to deploy solar on its own estate
7th Jan
2016
Sep
2015
This comes to light in March 2018. No announcement is made at the
time. Only 100 MW of the 1 GW promised has been installed by now.
5 MW installed
by industry: the
Bentley Factory
roof, 2014

25. 2nd Mar
2016
2nd Mar
2016
xMeanwhile, solar is shifting the global energy
market on its axis, as increasingly noticed even in…
20 Aug
2014

26. Conservatives win a majority in a UK election. Lib
Dems no longer moderate their energy preferences
7th Jan
2016
7th May
2015
On energy, Conservatives consistently advocate a nuclear renaissance
led by Hinkley Point C, and gas from fracked shale.

27. HMG cuts domestic feed-in tariff 65% in a fresh
market-sabotage move – start date 8th Feb 2016
7th Jan
2016
16th Dec
2015
This despite an internal impact review that shows 18,700 of the
industry’s 32,000 jobs could be wiped out as a consequence.

28. Coal
Gas
WindSolar
100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,0000
Source: US Department of Energy
Meanwhile in America, this is the energy jobs tally in 2016
UK solar subsidy cuts lead to 12,000 job losses
…a third of the industry: PWC
7th Jan
2016
25th July
2016

29. 7th Jan
2016
21st Apr
2016
“As Oil Jobs Dry Up, Workers Turn to Solar Sector”
Alamo 6 solar farm

30. Some corporate front runners,
seeing the long-term opportunity,
keep faith with UK solar nonetheless.
Some examples….

31. 2nd Mar
2016
2nd Mar
2016
xIkea unveils ambition to be number-one global
residential solar retailer …beginning in UK stores
31st Mar
2016

32. Nissan powers UK EV factory
with solar and wind
7th Jan
2016
6th June
2016
4.7MW solar 11.6 MW wind
7% of total
= 31,000 vehicles

33. 7th Jan
2016
16th June
2016
M & S crowdfunds customer-owned solar,
offering a 5% rate of return

34. And then….

35. 7th Jan
2016
23 Jun
2016
UK votes to leave the European Union

36. 7th Jan
2016
13th Jul
2016
Will a new UK PM mean a new clean energy policy
…one to match UK Paris climate commitments?

37. “Green campaigners furious as climate change
ministry scrapped”
7th Jan
2016
14th July
2016
“It sends a terrible signal at the worst possible time”
James Thornton, CEO, Client Earth

38. 7th Jan
2016
6th Aug.
2016 “Hinkley Pointless”
“Britain(should(
cancel(its(nuclear(
white(elephant(
and(spend(the(
billions(on(making(
renewables(work”

39. UK PM May gives Hinkley Point C the go ahead
7th Jan
2016
15th Sep
2016

40. 7th Jan
2016
8th Aug
2016
UK shale: “All households near fracking sites
set to get money paid straight into banks”
Solar advocates point out that
all they need is a small subsidy,
not a large bribe
Instead they face the prospect
of a hike in business rates of up
to 800% in the spring budget

41. • 23.2 TWh of renewable power, up 2.3% of Q2 2015
• 1.3TWh of solar power, up 41% year-on-year
• solar’s share of total electricity generation: 1.4%
7th Jan
2016
12th Aug
2016
Despite all this, UK renewables set a new quarterly
generation record of 25.1% on back of solar growth

42. 7th Jan
2016
8th Feb
2017
STA accuses government of trying to kill solar
before it becomes cheapest UK electricity source

43. And the government’s response?

44. 7th Jan
2016
8th Mar
2017
Chancellor ignores solar industry pleas on
solar roof tax in the spring budget
Proxy founders and PR agency drafting
uncovered by a Bloomberg investigation

45. UK industry has lost two thirds of its workforce
…just 5,000 installations in H1 (155,000 in 2015)
7th Jan
2016
Sep
2017
STA: it is nonsense that solar remains locked out of the Government’s
competitive auction process for Contracts for Difference (CfDs).

46. 7th Jan
2016
22nd Nov
2017
And in the autumn budget, Chancellor announces
no new subsidies for any UK renewables for 8 years
Proxy founders and PR agency drafting
uncovered by a Bloomberg investigation

47. Entering 2018, despite a debt mountain of over a quarter
of a trillion dollars built up by shale drillers in the USA, the
UK government pulls out even more stops for shale gas,
aiming to drop planning requirements
Even though….

48. 7th Jan
2016
12th Feb
2018
“A Powerful Mix of Solar and Batteries
Is Beating Natural Gas”
e.g. California PURC requires PG&E to use batteries over gas, Arizona PS
Co opts for a First Solar solar-battery project cheaper than gas, etc.
The Way Humans Get Electricity Is About To Change Forever

49. Subsidy-free renewable energy projects set to soar
in UK, analysts say, largely killing off new gas plants
7th Jan
2016
20th Mar
2018
Aurora Energy Research: Onshore wind and solar both viable without
subsidies by 2025, unlocking £20bn of investment by 2030.
Solarcentury roof for Sainsbury

50. Offshore wind will provide most of the growth from 2017 to 2025, WWF
suggest, but HMG could and should also use onshore wind and solar.
UK on track to phase-out coal by 2025 without the
need for any new large gas plants: WWF report
7th Jan
2016
13th May
2018
Masayoshi Son, Softbank founder and CEO

51. 7th Jan
2016
2nd July
2016
21 - 28 June: 533 GWh from the UK’s 12.8 GW, >75GWh on five of the
seven days, >8GW for eight consecutive days.
UK solar hits record weekly highs in heatwave
…and briefly tops gas as the biggest generator
Solar
27.8%
Gas
27%
Nuclear
22.6%
Wind
9.7%
Imports,
storage,
hydro
9%
Bio
3.9%
UK electricity mix at 2.12pm on 30th June 2018

52. David Cameron laments “painfully slow” fracking
progress in UK
7th Jan
2016
29th Mar
2018
He tells American Fuel & Petrochemicals Manufacturers’ conference
that c. 10 wells in Europe vs 10’s of thousands in us is “pathetic”.

53. Local government could be a key factor
were the UK to emulate Germany

54. 1.1 million Europeans now work in renewables, many more than coal.
But the EU still imports 54% of its energy, costing >€200 bn a year.
German citizen energy would rank within Europe’s
top 15 largest energy retailers, if it were a company
7th Jan
2016
24th Apr
2018
Source:EuropeanRenewableEnergiesFoundation

55. 7th Jan
2016
27th Oct
2017
“We pay no shareholder bonuses” …includes Doncaster, Leeds,
Liverpool, Durham, Nottingham, Islington, Bristol & by 2021 ….Scotland
A new wave of council-led publicly-owned energy
companies is emerging to challenge the UK’s Big 6

56. 7th Jan
2016
31st Aug
2016
Smart energy revolution could help to avoid
UK blackouts: National Grid
Nicola Shaw
Executive Director
Devices hooked up
on internet of things
can smooth 30-50%
of grid demand
at peak times

57. 7th Jan
2016
22nd Nov
2017
UK’s first P2P energy trading project kicks off
in 40 flats in Hackney, east London
Proxy founders and PR agency drafting
uncovered by a Bloomberg investigationVerv’s blockchain-based technology used in Banister House,
the largest UK social housing solar project, …with batteries

58. Paris targets will require UK cities to be 90% renewable powered by
2030 (C40), and < 1 in 3 LAs have solar in their environmental strategies.
UK solar industry suggests local governments
can and must solarize faster
7th Jan
2016
18th Apr
2018

59. But the UK government sticks to its guns

60. Only one new community energy group added to
the UK’s 228 in 2017 as subsidies go to fossil fuels
7th Jan
2016
23rd Jun
2018
So Community Energy England reports in its annual survey. Subsidies to
FF are 30x higher, including >£3bn in 2017 through the capacity market.

61. As global solar capacity soars in 2017, new solar in
the UK halves for a second year running
7th Jan
2016
19th Jun
2018
21 of the 28 EU markets showed growth, but this wasn’t enough to
compensate for UK losses resulting from subsidy cuts in 2015 and 2016.
Newsolarcapacity,GW

62. The future
of the UK
solar market:
opportunity
despite….

63. Asia added 75% of all new solar PV. The EU was down to just 6 GW.
India added 9.1 GW, 3rd in the world, and 6th in cumulative capacity.
By end 2017, every continent has installed 1 GW of
solar PV and at least 29 nations have 1 GW or more
7th Jan
2016
4th Jun
2018
Future Today
Global solar PV capacity 2007 - 2017: main countries
Source: REN21 Renewables 2018 Global Status Report

64. For the first time, global solar capacity grew faster
in 2017 than all fossil fuels and nuclear combined
7th Jan
2016
5th Apr
2018
The record 98 GW of new solar built in 2017 increased the world’s
cumulative capacity by a third, to 399GW.
Fossil fuels
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Other renewables Nuclear
Global growth in net electricity generating capacity
(i.e. including retirements of plants)125
100
75
50
25
0
GW
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

65. 66% would be happy to have a large renewables project locally.
74% are concerned about climate change.
UK Government poll finds a record 85% public
support for renewable energy, and 87% for solar
7th Jan
2016
26th Apr
2018

66. 7th Jan
2016
13th Nov
2017
82% in 13 countries believe it is important to create
a world fully powered by renewable energy
Largest ever such study: 26,000 people
surveyed by Edelman for Orsted

67. 7th Jan
2016
13th Jan
2018
Renewable electricity will be consistently in lower
range of undercutting fossil fuels by 2020: IRENA
Fossil fuel cost range

68. 7th Jan
2016
Officialdom constantly underestimates the growth
of solar PV: e.g. UK’s Ofgem
7th Jan
2016
7th Jan
2016
25th July
2016
7th Jan
2016
6th May
2016
Ofgem
2010
based
on DNO
views
Low and Medium
viewed as most likely
Source: University of Exeter

69. …and even more laughable, the IEA’s predictions:
historic data versus World Energy Outlook
7th Jan
2016
2002
to
2016
40 institutions, 4 times bigger than previous record
…on anniversary of death of St Francis of Assissi
2000 2006 2010 2016 2020 2030
GW per year actual

70. And of course, it isn’t just about solar,
but solar in a family of batteries, EVs,
and other clean energy technologies

71. 7th Jan
2016
2nd Oct
2016
Carmakers embrace an electric future
at Paris motor show
Daimler Chairman Dieter Zetsche
unveils the Mercedes-Benz EQ

72. China's Chongqing Changan to sell only EVs
from 2025
7th Jan
2016
19th Oct
2017

73. Solarcentury is the behind-brand delivery partner. Meanwhile, EVs are
reaching a tipping point in the UK. Large-scale V2G not far off?
“Nissan's Following Tesla Into Solar Power and
Home Batteries”
7th Jan
2016
16th May
2018

74. Digitalisation “will increase the profitability of solar
power across every part of the value chain”: SPE
7th Jan
2016
13th Sep
2017
$800bn of additional
value for renewables
by 2030
Business models: eg solar to be sold as part of a smart building package.
Grid services and cost savings for manufacturers, developers & installers

75. Those awakening include

76. Jerome Pecresse, GE Renewables: “We are inventing things that we did
not even imagine three years ago …renewable baseload is coming fast.”
“Utilities dispel all doubts about renewables' ability
to power planet”: Recharge on Eurelectric summit
7th Jan
2016
6th Jun
2018
Francesco Starace,
Enel CEO:
electrifying the
transport sector “is
not only a winning
strategy, it’s a
must.”

77. EU strikes deal on 32% renewable energy by 2030
target, including strong solar provisions
7th Jan
2016
14th Jun
2018
The deal includes an upward review clause by 2023 at the latest, no
charges for solar prosumers and much easier connection to grid.

78. The Spanish oil company “is the first among its peers” to do this,
Bloomberg reports. Production will be limited to current levels.
Repsol will end pursuit of oil and gas growth and
chase energy transition instead
7th Jan
2016
15th May
2018
Masayoshi Son, Softbank founder and CEO

79. Statoil plans to change its name to Equinor,
reflecting shift in strategy toward renewable energy
7th Jan
2016
14th Mar
2018
CEO Eldar Sætre: “For us, this is a historic day”. ….But the company still
only expects to be investing 15-20% of capex in renewables by 2030.

80. “Civilisation requires energy, but energy use must not destroy
civilisation,” the Pope tells heads of BP, ExxonMobil and others.
Pope Francis invites oil bosses to the Vatican and
tells them that they must switch to clean energy
7th Jan
2016
9th Jun
2018
Valdis Dombrovskis, EC VP:
“time is running out”

81. Crucially, the investment world is showing
signs of switching hundreds of billions a year
out of oil and gas and into clean energy

82. An update report by CERES sees realistic opportunities in the tens of
trillions of dollars across an array of asset classes in multiple sectors.
The “clean trillion” - the extra c. $1 tn p.a. needed
through 2050 for Paris 2˚C - is “eminently feasible”
7th Jan
2016
10th May
2018
Summary of conclusion in the original 2014 CERES report
on closing the clean energy investment gap

83. 7th Jan
2016
16th Nov
2017
Norwegian Central Bank, manager of the oil fund,
tells government it should divest from oil and gas
Biggest holding end 2016:
$5.3 bn in Shell

84. “Oil must face its future as a declining industry”:
Legal & General Investment Management in the FT
7th Jan
2016
13th Jun
2018
The CIO and a commodities specialist suggest that rather than transition
to renewables, oil companies stop investing and return cash.

85. c. €180bn p.a. new investment needed until 2030 to hit EU share of
Paris targets. Changes include green labels. Axa is a driving force.
Brussels changes rules to boost Paris-congruent
financial products & disclose climate risk of others
7th Jan
2016
9th Jun
2018
Valdis Dombrovskis, EC VP:
“time is running out”

86. On the one hand, the latest outlook
from Bloomberg New Energy Finance
might look rather bullish, at first pass….

87. Battery cost-down will mean wind and PV at a
combined 50% of global power by 2050: BNEF
7th Jan
2016
19th Jun
2018
New Energy Outlook 2018: LCOE of new PV down a further 71% by 2050
and onshore wind 58%, fuelling 15x growth in PV and 6x in wind.

88. but then on the other hand….

89. Google futurist Ray Kurzweil argues that analysts
tend to struggle with exponential effects
7th Jan
2016
30 Mar
2016
Solar doubles every c.2 years
30
10
20
50
40
(GW)
60
…to 2% of global energy supply
8 doublings 2000 – 2016…
6 more doublings to 2028…
…to >100% of 2016 global energy
c. 13,600 mtoe and >150,000 TWh
Ray Kurzweil
Co-founder, Singularity University

90. 2015
7th Jan
2016
6th Nov
2017
First 100% RE global power system model published
using full hourly resolution at global – local scale
Energy Watch Group / Lappeenranta Technology University
Coal
Gas
Hydro
Wind
Oil
Nuclear
Solar
Bioenergy
69%
18%
8%
2%
RE
22%
LCOE
€70 MWh
€52 MWh
20302020 2040 2050
…and it finds that, making choices
purely on economic grounds,
solar dominates the world

91. Imagine the impact on the UK economy and society
of a fair share of the industry, and the related industries,
that would be needed to meet 69% of global power
demand by 2050.
Predictions:
1. Those entering the industry
from college today will experience
those general kinds of numbers.
2. As electricity increasingly emerges
as the main fuel of the future, this story
will increasingly be about all energy use.

92. …a saga spanning 2013-2017
…with multiple storylines
continuing on
www.jeremyleggett.net
Including
tech and the future of civilisation
All royalties to
Solar
Aid
A summary of the wider context of solar markets

93. The drama continues. You can follow it daily on
FutureToday: www.jeremyleggett.net
7th Jan
2016
1st Apr
2018