Repairing economies requires major new investments in sustainable-energy jobs (that will more than pay themselves back), and the UK is a perfect example

1. A Green New Deal in 2018:
Energy and jobs for the UK
Jeremy Leggett

2. Preface
The slides are from the Future Today chronology
of selected developments in climate, energy, tech
and the future of civilization: www.jeremyleggett.net
The powerpoint version of this summary includes source urls
as notes, and is available free for any use, by anybody, at
https://bit.ly/2N6MmZe

3. The clean energy revolution predicted ten years ago
by the UK’s Green New Deal Group and others
is happening now
Cost reductions in solar, wind, and batteries are posing
existential threats to incumbency industries

4. Massive investment in renewable energy and wider environmental
transformation can rebuild society, much for the better, they say.
7th Jan
2016
21st Jul
2008
British thinkers call for a “New Deal” in job-creation
investment to tackle the financial and climate crises

5. 7th Jan
2016
6th Feb
2018
“Back in 2008, we were barely writing about
PV ...and storage was nowhere to be found”
“The Solar Century: The past, present, and world-changing future
of solar energy” – book published 2009
“Vision 4: Solar photovoltaics at
grid parity everywhere, years
earlier than most expected”
“Vision 5: Energy storage plants
throughout the smart grid
…many of them also vehicles”

6. For the first time, global solar capacity grew faster
in 2017 than all fossil fuels and nuclear combined
7th Jan
2016
5th Apr
2018
The record 98 GW of new solar built in 2017 increased the world’s
cumulative capacity by a third, to 399GW.
Fossil fuels
Solar
Wind
Hydro
Other renewables Nuclear
Global growth in net electricity generating capacity
(i.e. including retirements of plants)125
100
75
50
25
0
GW
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

7. BNEF estimates the 2nd TW will arrive by mid-2023, costing 46% less
than the c. $1.3 tn required for the first. 54% wind, 46% solar.
7th Jan
2016
2nd Aug
2018
World passes 1,000 GW of wind and solar, on a
rising exponential curve, in the last days of June

8. But Europe’s renewable-energy sector was No. 2 in the world in 2014,
but it has now fallen to fifth, behind China, the US, Japan and Brazil.
In 2017, 30% of EU’s power mix was renewable,
74% of Denmark’s, 30% of Germany’s, 28% of UK’s
7th Jan
2016
24th Apr
2018
Renewables mix in power generation %
Source:EuropeanRenewableEnergiesFoundation

9. Wind and solar generate more electricity than
nuclear over a quarter year for first time in the UK
7th Jan
2016
29th Mar
2018
Official Q4 2017 figures: gas 36.12TWh, wind and solar 18.33 TWh
nuclear 16.69TWh.
(including
biomass)
(including
biomass)
Source: DBEIS

10. 7th Jan
2016
2nd July
2018
21 - 28 June: 533 GWh from the UK’s 12.8 GW, >75GWh on five of the
seven days, >8GW for eight consecutive days. A sign of things to come.
UK solar hits record weekly highs in the heatwave
…and tops gas as the biggest generator for an hour
Solar
27.8%
Gas
27%
Nuclear
22.6%
Wind
9.7%
Imports,
storage,
hydro
9%
Bio
3.9%
UK electricity mix at 14.12 on 30th June 2018

11. 7th Jan
2016
13th Jan
2018
Renewable electricity will be consistently
undercutting fossil fuels by 2020: IRENA
e.g. Expect global weighted cost of utility-scale solar PV to fall from
$0.10/kWh in 2017 to $0.03 in 2018, and to average $0.06.

12. 7th Jan
2016
18th Jul
2017
Renewable energy will be cheapest form of power
in almost every country by 2020: Morgan Stanley
Carbon Tracker: “On average, they already are”

13. “Wind, solar and batteries are set to become far more deeply
entrenched in the generation mix of almost every country than anyone
has so far thought possible”: Seb Henbest, BNEF team leader.
7th Jan
2016
25th July
2018
BNEF NEO: “Every year a big surprise” …2018’s is
wind & solar at c. 50% of global electricity by 2050
“At its heart, NEO is a technology story”

14. Nuclear is “ridiculously expensive”, “utterly uncompetitive”, says the
longstanding nuclear advocate: $9bn now to build one reactor.
7th Jan
2016
24th July
2018
Nuclear power can’t compete with solar power:
former IEA boss Nobuaki Tanaka

15. 7th Jan
2016
6th Dec
2017
More than half of EU’s coal-fired power stations
are lossmaking, and almost all will be by 2030
Analysis of >600 power plants by Carbon Tracker estimates €22bn
of losses could be avoided by phasing out coal by 2030

16. 7th Jan
2016
19th Jul
2017
Coal has no future, says US railroad boss:
“fossil fuels are dead”
Hunter Harrison, CEO of CSX, says he will be financing
not a single new locomotive to haul coal.

17. 7th Jan
2016
12th Feb
2018
“A Powerful Mix of Solar and Batteries
Is Beating Natural Gas”
e.g. California PURC requires PG&E to use batteries over gas.
Arizona PS Co opts for a solar-battery project cheaper than gas.
The Way Humans Get Electricity Is About To Change Forever

18. Case for coal and gas plants is “crumbling” as wind,
solar and battery costs plunge
7th Jan
2016
28th Mar
2018
Bloomberg New Energy Finance says its latest conclusions
have “chilling” implications for fossil generators.
• Global LCOE falls 18% YOY for
both onshore wind and PV in
first six months of 2018
…to $55/MWh and $70MWh
respectively
• Offshore wind down 5% to
$118/MWh
• 79% fall in lithium-ion battery
costs since 2010

19. 7th Jan
2016
6th July
2018
Meanwhile, the government’s current plans for 100gCO2/kWh goal by
2030 are “not credible”. Power sector emissions stand at 263gCO2/kWh.
New UK solar and wind could be cheaper than
existing gas plants within the 2020s, CCC says
Cost of building new renewables in 2025 compared to higher-carbon alternatives
Source: Climate Change Committee Progress Report 2018

20. Offshore wind will provide most of the growth from 2017 to 2025, WWF
suggest, but HMG could & should also use onshore wind and solar.
UK on track to phase-out coal by 2025 without the
need for any new large gas plants: WWF report
7th Jan
2016
13th May
2018
Masayoshi Son, Softbank founder and CEO

21. Meanwhile, in the USA, the shale business hasn’t
funded itself at any oil price, & built up huge debts
7th Jan
2016
27th Dec
2017
Even at $100 oil prices in 2012 and 2013, the 33 companies spent more
money producing shale energy than they made from operations.
33 shale-weighted E&P companies in the 4 main shale oil plays:
Free cash flow
Source: Bloomberg

22. 7th Jan
2016
12th July
2018
The “optimistic” “Community Renewables” scenario envisages 9 GW of
storage by 2030 in concert with this solar, and 29 GW by 2050.
National Grid Future Energy Scenarios: Solar could
be UK’s ‘dominant’ source of power by 2030
Elizabeth Denham, Information Commissioner
33
66

23. Subsidy-free renewable energy projects set to soar
in UK, analysts say, largely killing off new gas plants
7th Jan
2016
20th Mar
2018
Aurora Energy Research: Onshore wind and solar both viable without
subsidies by 2025, unlocking £20bn of investment by 2030.
Solarcentury roof for Sainsbury

24. Key players are switching mindset
Industrial giants once supportive of centralized power,
fossil fuels and nuclear need no further persuasion that
their business models are broken

25. 7th Jan
2016
5th Dec
2017
All major EU power utilities commit to carbon-
neutral power ‘well before’ 2050
Eurelectric secretary-general Kristian Ruby

26. Jerome Pecresse, GE Renewables: “We are inventing things that we did
not even imagine three years ago …renewable baseload is coming fast.”
“Utilities dispel all doubts about renewables' ability
to power planet”: Recharge on Eurelectric summit
7th Jan
2016
6th Jun
2018
Francesco Starace,
Enel CEO:
electrifying the
transport sector “is
not only a winning
strategy, it’s a
must.”

27. 7th Jan
2016
16th Nov
2017
Norwegian Central Bank, manager of the oil fund,
tells government it should divest from oil and gas
Biggest holding end 2016:
$5.3 bn in Shell

28. 7th Jan
2016
10th July
2018
This in the UK’s first ever National Infrastructure Assessment: at least
half UK power should be renewable by 2030, & can be at no extra cost.
UK NIC urges HMG to grab the ‘golden opportunity’
to ditch nuclear & go with cheaper solar + wind

29. Mark Dooley, Macquarie Capital: “while it makes sense that an
aluminium producer is in the vanguard (Norsk Hydro’s giant wind plans),
there is every reason to expect that all heavy industrial will follow.”
7th Jan
2016
24th July
2018
Heavy industry turns to renewables, including
aluminium smelters, cement plants & “green steel”

30. Of course, none of this is to say that the
global energy transition is going fast enough
The enormity of the climate-change threat means
that we must go much faster

31. 7th Jan
2016
28th Jun
2017
The Paris Agreement pledges emissions will fall
enough to keep warming < 2˚C & 1.5˚C if we can
Decarbonisation
by 2040
As a long list of climate experts summarise in Nature, that means total
decarbonization - retreat from burning fossil fuels - by c. 2040.
Source:C.Figueresetal

32. They are solar, lighting, data centres and networks, and EVs. Particularly
problematic is that energy efficiency improvements have slowed.
IEA publishes a new monitoring tool showing only 4
of 38 energy sectors are on track with Paris targets
7th Jan
2016
29th May
2018
Future Today
On track: 4
Much more effort needed: 23
Significantly off track: 11

33. Renewables must be scaled up at least six times
faster to meet the Paris Agreement target: IRENA
7th Jan
2016
17th Apr
2018
Additional costs: $1.7 tn p.a. in 2050. But savings from < air pollution, <
environmental damage, & > health = $6 tn p.a. in 2050.
Source: IRENA’s
“Roadmap to 2050”
(85% in
power sector)

34. Renewables & energy efficiency can provide > 90%
of cuts in energy-related CO2 emissions: IRENA
7th Jan
2016
17th Apr
2018
Emissions expected to be flat in the business-as-usual Reference Case,
but must be cut >70% in the Paris-congruent Remap Case.
Source: IRENA’s
“Roadmap to 2050”
94% of
the >70%
emissions
cuts needed

35. Given all these considerations, major new
opportunities are emerging for job creation
Green energy industries tend to be more job-rich
than in the incumbency industries

36. Making the $90 trillion of infrastructure investment
needed by 2030 Paris-congruent would save $26 tn
7th Jan
2016
5th Sep
2018
>65 m additional jobs by 2030, avoid 700,000 premature deaths, ++
…if only, the Commission says, governments stop standing in the way.
Source: Global
Commission on the
Economy and
Climate report

37. IRENA reports 500,000 new jobs in 2017, up 5.3%, with the potential for
28 million by 2050 if the global energy system is decarbonised.
More than 10 million people now work in
renewables for the first time, 3.4 million in solar
7th Jan
2016
8th May
2018

38. See the Future Today slideshow “Opportunity Despite: History and
future of the UK PV market in pictures and charts” for further detail.
But the UK is a laggard in this as in much else to do
with the energy transition
7th Jan
2016
8th May
2018

39. US workers in solar and wind in 2016: 475,000
….more than coal and gas
7th Jan
2016
23rd Apr
2017
Coal
Gas
WindSolar
100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,0000
Source: US Department of Energy

40. Good news stories from Kentucky show that “mine work today requires
mechanical and technical skills that are transferable to new industries.”
Wind, solar, & storage companies are “recruiting
coal miners for their work ethics & high-tech skills”
7th Jan
2016
9th May
2018

41. IRENA’s energy transition would generate >44
million additional energy sector jobs by 2030
7th Jan
2016
17th Apr
2018
Job gains in renewable energy and energy efficiency
would greatly exceed fossil-fuel job losses.
Source: IRENA’s
“Roadmap to 2050”

42. Investment must be stepped up if these job-creation
opportunities are to be seized
The financial services sector, with some noble
exceptions, has yet to become galvanized
the way it should

43. Rana Adib, exec secretary of REN21, warns of “complacency” …“we are
coasting along as if we had all the time in the world. Sadly, we don’t.”
REN21: Renewables growth in heating, cooling, and
transport well behind electricity generation sector
7th Jan
2016
4th Jun
2018
Future Today
Renewable energy in total final energy consumption, by sector, 2015
Source: REN21
Renewables 2018
Global Status Report

44. 7th Jan
2016
17th July
2018
World Energy Investment 2018: All energy $1.8 trillion.
Renewables down 7% to $298bn. Energy efficiency up 3% to $236 bn.
= $534bn incl. big hydro. Fossil fuels $790bn. Electricity $750bn.
Clean energy investment fell 3% in 2017,
and expect another fall in 2018, says a worried IEA

45. This is 3x the investment in fossil fuel generating capacity and more than
2x fossil-fuel and nuclear power capacity combined. ….But not enough.
Investment in renewables in 2017 was less than it
was in 2011 …it has essentially been flat since then
7th Jan
2016
4th Jun
2018
Global investment in renewable power and fuels
Source: REN21 Renewables 2018 Global Status Report
excluding hydro >50MW
…at least $310 bn if included

46. “$300 bn is less than the amount of losses in the United States alone
from weather and climate disasters in the single year of 2017.”
7th Jan
2016
9th Aug
2018
We spend c. $300 bn a year on clean energy today, &
need c. $2tn p.a. for 100% decarbonisation by 2050
Annual Global Renewable Energy Capex
Source:DNVGL.Asof9/30/18.
Datafrom2015-2050isestimatedorforecast.

47. An update report by CERES sees realistic opportunities in the tens of
trillions across an array of asset classes in multiple sectors.
The “clean trillion” - the extra c. $1 tn p.a. needed
through 2050 for Paris 2˚C - is “eminently feasible”
7th Jan
2016
10th May
2018
Summary of conclusion in the original 2014 CERES report
on closing the clean energy investment gap

48. People and communities are showing every sign of
wanting to transition, in multiple countries
The technologies are popular, the support for them,
and community power, crosses political divides

49. 7th Jan
2016
13th Nov
2017
82% in 13 countries believe it is important to create
a world fully powered by renewable energy
This is the largest ever such study:
26,000 people surveyed by Edelman for Orsted

50. 1.1 million Europeans now work in renewables, many more than coal.
But the EU still imports 54% of its energy, costing >€200 bn a year.
German citizen energy would rank within Europe’s
top 15 largest energy retailers, if it were a company
7th Jan
2016
24th Apr
2018
Source:EuropeanRenewableEnergiesFoundation

51. 66% would be happy to have a large renewables project locally. 74% are
concerned about climate change. 35% support nuclear (22% oppose).
UK Government poll finds a record 85% public
support for renewable energy, 87% for solar
7th Jan
2016
26th Apr
2018
Onshore wind:
not so unpopular after all

52. The impact of AI and robotics across economies
makes new job creation even more imperative
Lets us consider just a few quick aspects of a huge
potential problem, unfolding in parallel

53. 7th Jan
2016
26th Jan
2018
CEO Sundar Pichai: Like fire, “AI is really important
…but we have to be concerned about it.”
Artificial intelligence will have more impact on the
world than fire or electricity, says Google boss

54. 7th Jan
2016
21st Aug
2018
Andy Haldane, Chief Economist: more disruption than the first industrial
revolution (coal and steam), second industrial revolution (chemical
Bank of England warns that AI threatens lengthy
and widespread unemployment in the UK

55. 7th Jan
2016
19th Jan
2017
Negative implications for jobs and hence social
cohesion: “We need a global convention on AI”
“Last year, the robot was pouring beer and picking up a wooden block.
This year, it knows how you are feeling through
facial recognition software.”

56. 7th Jan
2016
16th July
2018
Joe Kaeser is already spending €500m a year on retraining because “the
fourth industrial revolution ,,,,accounts for 70% of global GDP.”
Siemens boss urges need for retraining in a global
car workforce facing one third cuts in a decade

57. The UK government’s priorities are currently almost
exactly the reverse of what is needed
Rather than investing in the relatively job-rich money-
making money-saving industries of the future, they are
favouring the relatively job-poor money-losing money-
wasting industries of the past

58. Total cost, to be shared with Hitachi and Japanese government: £16bn.
Price of power: £75-77 MWh …much more than solar & wind.
UK government agrees to £5bn public stake in
Welsh nuclear power station in policy U-turn
7th Jan
2016
4th Jun
2018

59. UK clean energy projects stifled as energy
networks' charge high fees for connection enquiries
7th Jan
2016
18th Apr
2018
Earlier Tory legislation enables them to do this. Charges are in the £2.5 -
£10k range for small renewables projects – even if they don’t go ahead.

60. As global solar capacity soars in 2017, new solar in
the UK halves for a second year running
7th Jan
2016
19th Jun
2018
21 of the 28 EU markets showed growth, but this wasn’t enough to
compensate for UK losses resulting from subsidy cuts in 2015 and 2016.
Newsolarcapacity,GW

61. Only one new community energy group added to
the UK’s 228 in 2017 as subsidies went to fossil fuels
7th Jan
2016
23rd Jun
2018
So Community Energy England reports in its annual survey. Subsidies to
FF are 30x higher, including >£3bn in 2017 through the capacity market.

62. 7th Jan
2016
19th July
2018
Making no export payments for surplus solar power exported to the grid
ignores the recent prosumer-supportive EU Directive on renewables.
HMG proposes, on same day, no payments for solar
electricity exports & no planning need for fracking

63. Others are doing a far better job of trying
to act in the manner needed
The UK government needs to reverse course, admit
it has got energy wrong, copy best practice overseas
….and then shoot for leadership by accelerating
faster than others. That is what the UK economy,
and the global environment, needs.

64. EU strikes deal on 32% renewable energy by 2030
target, including strong solar provisions
7th Jan
2016
14th Jun
2018
The deal includes an upward review clause by 2023 at the latest, no
charges for solar prosumers and much easier connection to grid.

65. Energy Commission explains its decision by saying the typical $10k extra
building cost would be earned back and more by energy savings.
California poised to be first US state to require solar
panels on new homes, starting in 2020
7th Jan
2016
9th May
2018

66. Target: add 18 TWh wind en route to 100% renewables by 2040.
On schedule by end 2018: 3,681 turbines, 7.5 GW, 19.8 TWh.
7th Jan
2016
5th Aug
2018
Sweden building enough wind turbines to reach its
2030 renewable energy target by the end of year