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WISE M NEY
2021: Issue 778, Week: 8th - 12th March
A Weekly Update from SMC
(For private circulation only)
Brand
smc
561
11 March, 2021
HAPPY MAHA SHIVRATRI
From The Desk Of Editor
(Saurabh Jain)
SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any
investment decision.
SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of
interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or
its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company
covered byAnalyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered byAnalyst.
The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.
SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also
registered as a Depository Participant with CDSLand NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration withAMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.
SMC is a SEBI registered ResearchAnalyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market.
n the week gone by markets across the globe continued to decline due to rising
Ibond yields causing investors to question the sky-high valuations of tech stocks in
particular. The 10-year bond yields climbed higher on mounting expectations of
stronger economic growth and faster inflation after the pandemic ends. Meanwhile,
Powell said that he would keep credit flowing until Americans are back to work,
rebutting investors who have openly doubted he can stick to that promise once the
pandemic passes. Actually, Markets were expecting him to signal more bond
purchases to hold down longer-term interest rates. Oil prices spiked to their highest in
over a year as OPEC and its allies agreed to extend most oil output cuts intoApril, after
deciding that the demand recovery from the pandemic remained fragile.
Back home, market continued to see volatile movements owing to uncertainty in
global markets over inflation and consequent rise in bond yields. The Indian economy
seems to be moving on the path of faster recovery with key indicators on consumption
and investment showing a sharp slowdown in contraction in January, 2021.
Meanwhile, the Indian economy emerged out of technical recession in October-
December 2020 and grew 0.4 per cent with improvement in manufacturing,
construction and agriculture. However, former Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Arvind
Panagariya has said that it might take longer to become a USD 5 trillion economy due
to the coronavirus pandemic-induced disruptions. The inflation target for the Reserve
Bank of India's MPC for the next five years starting April is likely to be notified around
mid-March. Investors would continue to track global cues particularly the bond yields
for any directional move. Besides, movement of currency, inflow and out flow of
foreign fund, macroeconomic data and crude oil prices will continue to dictate the
trend of the market going forward.
On the commodity market front, CRB gradually moved higher, however the upside was
capped by fall in base metals and bullion counter. The dollar was up but the safe-
haven asset remained broadly weaker as Treasury yields continued to fall. Base metals
saw sharp fall last week due to resumption of mines amid unlock of long positions.
Nickel fell the most. This week we may see consolidation in this counter. Gold slumped
to a near nine-month low on Friday and witnessed continuous three-week decline
after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell disappointed investors with his view on
rising yields that pushed up the dollar and bond yields. Gold and silver may see
consolidation in the range of 43000-46000 and 63000-68000 respectively. Oil prices
rose after OPEC and its allies agreed not to increase supply in April as they await a
more solid recovery in demand from the coronavirus pandemic. GDP of Euro Area, UK
and Italy, Inflation Rate of Mexico and China, Core Inflation Rate and Inflation Rate of
US, BoC Interest Rate Decision, New Yuan Loans of China, ECB Interest Rate Decision
and ECB Press Conference, Unemployment Rate of Canada etc. many important
triggers for commodities this week.
Commodity 10-13
Equity 4-7
Currency 14
Contents
Derivatives 8-9
IPO 15
Mutual Fund 17-18
FD Monitor 16
Tel: 91-22-67341600, Fax: 91-22-67341697
S D Road, Secunderabad, Telangana-500003
CHENNAI OFFICE:
Salzburg Square, Flat No.1, III rd Floor, Door No.107, Harrington Road,
Chetpet, Chennai - 600031.
SECUNDERABAD OFFICE:
315, 4th Floor Above CMR Exclusive, BhuvanaTower,
KOLKATA OFFICE:
18, Rabindra Sarani, Poddar Court, Gate No-4,5th Floor, Kolkata-700001
Tel.: 033 6612 7000/033 4058 7000, Fax: 033 6612 7004/033 4058 7004
Jay Coach Signal, Goreagon (East) Mumbai - 400063
Tel: 044-39109100, Fax -044- 39109111
AHMEDABAD OFFICE :
10/A, 4th Floor, Kalapurnam Building, Near Municipal Market,
C G Road, Ahmedabad-380009, Gujarat
Tel : 91-79-26424801 - 05, 40049801 - 03
Ph.: +91-11- 43035012, 42720372, Email: ss@sandsmarketing.in
DUBAI OFFICE:
2404, 1 Lake Plaza Tower, Cluster T, Jumeriah Lake Towers,
Tel : 040-30031007/8/9
PO Box 117210, Dubai, UAE
Tel: 97145139780 Fax : 97145139781
Email ID : pankaj@smccomex.com
smcdmcc@gmail.com
B-26, Ground Floor, Patparganj Industrial Area, Delhi - 110092 (India)
Printed and Published on behalf of
Mr. Saurabh Jain @ Publication Address
11/6B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road, New Delhi-110005
Website: www.smcindiaonline.com
Investor Grievance : igc@smcindiaonline.com
Printed at: S&S MARKETING
SMC GLOBAL SECURITIES LTD.
REGISTERED OFFICES:
11 / 6B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road, New Delhi 110005.
Tel: 91-11-30111000, Fax: 91-11-25754365
MUMBAI OFFICE:
Lotus Corporate Park, A Wing 401 / 402 , 4th Floor ,
Graham Firth Steel Compound, Off Western Express Highway,
SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions.
Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and
interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals.
DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views
expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the
contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time
to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or
other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential
conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions,All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.
TREND SHEET
Stocks *Closing Trend Date Rate Support Resistance Closing
Price Trend Trend S/l
Changed Changed
S&P BSE SENSEX 50405 UP 17.07.20 37020 46250 - 44200
NIFTY50 14938 UP 17.07.20 10901 13600 - 13000
NIFTY IT 25230 UP 05.06.20 13665 24000 - 23000
NIFTY BANK 35228 UP 06.11.20 26799 31000 - 29000
ACC 1824 UP 17.04.20 1173 1690 - 1650
BHARTIAIRTEL* 533 UP 13.11.20 476 - - 530
BPCL 462 UP 15.01.21 415 400 - 390
CIPLA 805 UP 09.04.20 580 760 - 740
SBIN 384 UP 06.11.20 219 340 - 310
HINDALCO 338 UP 30.04.20 130 300 - 280
ICICI BANK** 609 UP 09.10.20 402 - - 580
INFOSYS 1317 UP 30.04.20 716 1200 - 1170
ITC 209 UP 20.11.20 192 205 - 200
L&T 1464 UP 13.11.20 1052 1400 - 1350
MARUTI 7249 DOWN 26.02.21 6866 - 7350 7600
NTPC 109 UP 05.02.21 100 92 - 90
ONGC 115 UP 27.11.20 79 93 - 90
RELIANCE 2179 UP 19.02.21 2080 2000 - 1970
TATASTEEL 733 UP 16.10.20 394 650 - 620
NOTES:
1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name
of "Morning Mantra ".
2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength
coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and
taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.
Closing as on 05-03-2021
EQUITY
NEWS
Economy
• According to the survey results from IHS Markit showed, India's service
sector activity expanded at a faster rate in February. The IHS Markit services
Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 55.3 in February from 52.8 in January.
Economists had forecast a score of 53.0. Any reading above 50.0 indicates
expansion in the sector.
Pharmaceuticals
• Unichem Laboratories has received ANDA approval for its Guanfacine
Tablets, USP 1 mg and 2 mg from the United States Food and Drug
Administration (USFDA) to market a generic version of TENEX®
(Guanfacine) Tablets 1 mg and 2 mg of Promius Pharma LLC.
Telecom
• Tejas Networks announced that GigNet, a leading digital infrastructure
company in Mexico, has selected the company's optical networking and
broadband access products for their state-of-the-art, high-capacity fiber
optic network expansion in the Cancun region of Mexico.
• RailTel Corporation of India (the Company) has received an Advance
Purchase Order amounting to Rs. 25.46 crores per annum (plus GST) from
Bharat Sanchar Nigam (BSNL) for commissioning of the Point-to-Point Links.
Construction
• Dilip Buildcon has received letter of acceptance National Highways
Authority for two hybrid annuity projects 'Bangalore-Chennai Expressway'
under Bharatmala Pariyojana in the State of Karnataka, Phase I (Package I &
II) worth Rs 2439 crore.
• NBCC (India) has executed a MoU with Rashtriya Ispat Nigam (RINL) for
redevelopment and monetization of 22.19 acres of Land Parcels at
Maddilapalem, Visakhapatnam on 26 February 2021 on self sustainable model.
• Ircon International has been awarded the work for replacement of
mechanical signaling at various locations at Moradabad at the expected
completion cost of Rs.187.80 crore. The tenure for execution of the works is
24 months. This work has been awarded on competitive bidding basis among
PSUs by the Northern Railways, Ministry of Railways.
Capital Goods
• Isgec Heavy Engineering has secured an order for Waste Heat Recovery Boilers
from the Cement industry and this time the capacity of the boilers will make
them the largest in the world. The order has been received from Shree
Cement, one of the largest cement manufacturing companies in India.
Information Technology
• Tata Consultancy Services has expanded its strategic partnership with
VodafoneZiggo B.V. Netherlands to help the latter speed up its fixed fiber
network roll out, enabling superior connectivity for subscribers and faster
launch of new services.
Cables
• Finolex Cables announced the launch of new range of decorative fans and
lighting products to strengthen its FMEG portfolio. These exclusive fans
have been introduced to time the approaching summer season. The stylish
range includes FLEENOR, GLADIATOR NXG & ALESSANDRA NXG ceiling fans.
Their attractive looks, along with aerodynamic design makes them a visual
treat. Powered by a powerful Copper motor these Hi speed fans deliver air
to every corner of the room.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
• US factory orders surged up by 2.6 percent after jumping by an upwardly
revised 1.6 percent in December. Economists had expected factory orders
to advance by 2.1 percent compared to the 1.1 percent increase originally
reported for the previous month.
• US initial jobless claims inched up to 745,000, an increase of 9,000 from the
previous week's revised level of 736,000. Economists had expected jobless
claims to rise to 750,000 from the 730,000 originally reported for the
previous week.
• US labor productivity tumbled by 4.2 percent in the fourth quarter
compared to the previously reported 4.8 percent nosedive. Economists had
expected the slump in productivity to be revised to 4.7 percent.
• Eurozone retail sales declined more than expected in January as strict
restrictions to contain the spread of the Covid-19 dampened demand for
non-food products. Another official report showed that the jobless rate in
the currency bloc remained unchanged in January.
• The euro area jobless rate remained unchanged in January. The
unemployment rate held steady at 8.1 percent and up from 7.4 percent in
the same period last year. The rate was forecast to rise to 8.3 percent.
4
DOMESTIC
FORTHCOMING EVENTS
BoardMeeting CompanyName Purpose
11-Mar-21 BannariAmm Spg. Accounts, Right Issue
10-Mar-21 REC Ltd Interim Dividend
8-Mar-21 R Systems Intl. Scheme ofAmalgamation
8-Mar-21 Mold-Tek Technol Interim Dividend
9-Mar-21 McDowell Hold. Quarterly Results
8-Mar-21 Supreme Engg. Quarterly Results
11-Mar-21 Renaiss. Global Interim Dividend
12-Mar-21 The Ramco Cement Interim Dividend
12-Mar-21 Ramco Inds. Interim Dividend
12-Mar-21 Supreme Petroch. Others, Reduction in Capital
12-Mar-21 HatsunAgroProd. Others
12-Mar-21 Bharat Dynamics Interim Dividend
16-Mar-21 Bharat Electron Interim Dividend
22-Mar-21 Vaibhav Global Stock Split
Ex-Date Particulars Dividend
8-Mar-21 Power Grid Corpn 40% 2nd Interim Dividend
9-Mar-21 KEI Industries 100% Interim Dividend
9-Mar-21 Thangamayil Jew. 60% Interim Dividend
10-Mar-21 Kirl. Ferrous 40% InterimDividend
10-Mar-21 Marico 450% Second Interim Dividend
19-Mar-21 Ambuja Cements 50% Final Dividend
30-Mar-21 ACC 140% Final Dividend
30-Mar-21 CRISIL 1400% Final Dividend
*BHARTIARTL has broken the support of 550
**ICICIBANK has broken the support of 610
BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change) NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)
SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)
GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)
INDIAN INDICES (% Change)
FII/FPI & DII ACTIVITY (In Rs. Crores)
5
EQUITY
SMC Trend
SMC Trend
IT
Metal
Oil & Gas
Power
Cap Goods
Cons Durable
Auto
Bank
Realty
FMCG
Healthcare
BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap
FII / FPI Activity DII trading activity
Nifty Sensex Nifty Next S&P CNX 500
Down Sideways
Up
SMC Trend
Hang Seng
Shanghai
FTSE 100
CAC 40
Nikkei
Strait times
Nasdaq
Dow jones
S&P 500
3.80
3.56
5.03
5.45
4.53
4.17
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
Ni y Sensex BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap Ni y Next 50 S&P CNX 500
4.42
3.23 3.16
3.83
3.07
3.19
5.67
3.60
3.34
5.93
3.66
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
Auto Index Bankex Cap Goods
Index
Cons Durable
Index
FMCG Index Healthcare
Index
IT Index Metal Index Oil & Gas
Index
Power Index Realty Index
2.23
0.89
2.58
1.76
-3.55
-0.03
-1.12
-0.12
-0.16
-4.00
-3.00
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
Nasdaq Comp. Dow Jones S&P 500 Nikkei Strait Times Hang Seng Shanghai
Comp.
FTSE 100 CAC 40
-8295.17
125.15
2223.16 2088.70
1499.70
-10000.00
-8000.00
-6000.00
-4000.00
-2000.00
0.00
2000.00
4000.00
Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday
392.91
-223.11
-194.88
-854.04 -788.19
-3.00
-0.10
12.46
11.33
10.80
9.60
8.21
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
Grasim Inds Adani Ports UltraTech
Cem.
UPL Shree Cement Bhar Airtel Coal India
-3.17
10.82
6.46
6.22 6.17
5.40
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
UltraTech
Cem.
Kotak Mah.
Bank
Infosys Asian Paints Tech
Mahindra
Bhar Airtel
Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis
Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline
Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.
6
EQUITY
Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis
Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline
Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months.
6
EQUITY
Face Value (Rs.) 2.00
52 Week High/Low 174.40/73.85
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 26273.71
EPS (Rs.) 0.00
P/E Ratio (times) 0.00
P/B Ratio (times) 0.49
Dividend Yield (%) 0.00
Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING
VALUE PARAMETERS
HEXAWARE TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED CMP: 382.90 Upside: 15%
Target Price: 441
% OF SHARE HOLDING
VALUE PARAMETERS
CANARA BANKLIMITED CMP: 159.55 Upside: 20%
Target Price: 192
Investment Rationale
Ÿ Global business of the bank rose at improved pace of
7% yoy at Rs 1640582 crore at end December 2020.
Deposits grew 8% yoy to Rs 1573151 crore, while the
advances growth also moved up 6% at Rs 667561 crore
at end December 2020. The credit-deposit ratio of the
bank rose to 68.6% from 68.4% a quarter ago and
remained lower from 69.9% a year ago
Ÿ NII increased 14.58% yoy to Rs 6081 crore in
Q3FY2021. The bank has reported 3% decline in the
interest earned at Rs 17206.34 crore, while interest
expenses declined 10% to Rs 11125.46 crore.
Ÿ Domestic advances of the bank increased 8% to Rs
644826 crore, domestic deposits moved up 9% to Rs
928325 crore at end December 2020. The bank has
exhibited strong growth in retail advances at 9% to Rs
113835 crore, while MSME credit jumped 6% to Rs
113718 crore and agriculture loans improved 11% to
Rs 150652 crore. The bank has also shown growth in
corporate advance at 2% to Rs 289356 crore end
December 2020.
Ÿ The bank has improved asset quality with decline in
fresh slippages of loans. Gross non-performing assets
(NPAs) stood at Rs 49,788.61 crore as on 31 December
2020 as against Rs 53,437.92 crore as on 30
September 2020 and Rs 36,644.97 crore as on 31
December 2019. Gross non-performing assets (NPA)
ratio came down to 7.46%, compared to 8.23% in the
previous quarter. Similarly, net NPA ratio came down
to 2.64% from 3.42% in the previous quarter.
Ÿ The provision coverage ratio improved in the December
quarter to 84.90%, compared to 70.97% in the year-ago
period.CRARstoodat13.69%asatSep2020.
Ÿ The bank has recorded net profit of Rs 696 crore for
the merged entity of Canara Bank and Syndicate
Bank for the quarter ended December 2020,
showing 9% decline from comparable figure of Rs
764 crore for merged entity in Q3FY2020. The
merged entity has posted strong 15% growth in the
net interest income, while non-interest income has
surged 63%.
Risk
• UnidentifiedAsset Slippages. (Non- Identified NPA’s)
• Regulatory Provisioning on assets and Corporate
Governance issue
Valuation
The management has guided for focus on NPA
management with strategic actions on strengthening
credit monitoring, contain fresh slippages and
strengthen recovery efforts. The bank remains
cautiously optimistic in terms of the asset quality
outlook going ahead in the current year. Thus, it is
expected that the stock will see a price target of
Rs.192 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on a target
P/BVx of 0.53x and FY22BVPS (Book Value per Share)
of Rs.361.33.
P/B Chart
Face Value (Rs.) 10.00
52 Week High/Low 114.75/74.00
M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 105451.24
EPS (Rs.) 12.96
P/E Ratio (times) 8.39
P/B Ratio (times) 0.86
Dividend Yield (%) 2.96
Stock Exchange BSE
% OF SHARE HOLDING
VALUE PARAMETERS
HEXAWARE TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED CMP: 382.90 Upside: 15%
Target Price: 441
VALUE PARAMETERS
NTPC LIMITED CMP: 108.75 Upside: 15%
Target Price: 125
` in cr
ACTUAL ESTIMATE
FY Mar-20 FY Mar-21 FY Mar-22
Revenue 97700.39 102184.83 119858.51
Ebitda 28110.52 31366.96 35627.63
Ebit 18469.87 21791.60 25325.12
Net Income 10112.81 13139.75 14684.01
EPS 10.22 13.35 14.86
BVPS 114.78 122.61 132.32
RoE 9.15% 10.99% 11.69%
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
` in cr
ACTUAL ESTIMATE
FY Mar-20 FY Mar-21 FY Mar-22
NII 13123.91 24624.94 26413.71
Ebit 9359.82 18109.16 18335.68
Pre-tax Profit -1755.57 2826.26 4337.15
Net Income -2235.72 1799.13 3238.64
EPS -26.50 11.59 18.72
BVPS 465.74 349.14 361.33
RoE -5.92% 4.18% 5.36%
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE
Investment Rationale
Ÿ NTPC is a Maharatna company operating in the power
generation business. The principal business activity of
the firm is electric power generation through coal based
thermal power plants. It also engages in the business of
generation of electricity from hydro and renewable
energy sources. As of 31 December 2020, the
GovernmentofIndiaheld51.10%stakeheldinNTPC.
Ÿ The gross generation of NTPC in Q3 FY21 was 65.42
Billion units as against 61.21 Billion units during the
corresponding period of previous year registering an
increase of 6.87%. For 9M FY21 gross generation was
193.28 Billion units as against 191.35 Billion units
during the corresponding period of previous year.
Ÿ During Q3FY21, the company's Plant Load Factor
(PLF) or capacity utilisation of coal-based projects
was 64.31 per cent in the quarter under review as
compared to 63.48 per cent in the same period a year
ago.
Ÿ The company has added 2800 mw of capacity and it is
confident of adding 5074 mw of new capacity by the
end of current fiscal and another about 6000 mw of
capacity in the next fiscal.
Ÿ The company has increased the dividend pay outs
and recently concluded a buyback, a strong signal to
its shareholders that the company will use
opportunity to deploy cash intelligently.
Ÿ NTPC has continued to reported strong operational
numbers in Q3FY21 on the back of power demand
recovery. On a consolidated basis, NTPC's net profit
rose nearly 16%to Rs.3,876.36 crore for the
December quarter, mainly due to higher revenues.
Its consolidated net profit was at Rs.3,351.28 crore
in the quarter ended on December 31, 2019.
Risk
Ÿ Unfavourable regulatory developments
Ÿ Delay in execution
Valuation
The management of the company has provided robust
guidance for growth in regulated equity, which makes
optimistic about strong earnings growth for NTPC in
the next couple of years. The management believes
receivables of Rs. 16,720 crore currently from
discoms should reduce with liquidity infusion into
discoms under the power sector relief package. The
decline in receivables from discoms would strengthen
its balance sheet. Thus, it is expected that the stock
will see a price target of Rs.125 in 8 to 10 months time
frame on a current P/E of 8.39x and FY22 EPS of
Rs.14.86.
P/E Chart
Foreign
Ins tu ons
Non Promoter Corp. Hold.
Promoters
Public & Others
4.62
11.96 1.97
69.33
12.11
Foreign
Ins tu ons
Non Promoter Corp. Hold.
Promoters
Public & Others
12.4
33.46
0.21
51.1
2.85
0.20 0.37 0.53 0.70 Close Price
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Charts by Reliable software
EQUITY
Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months
Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its
research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.
The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any
part of the analysis research.
SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE
7
The stock closed at Rs 1633.90 on 05th March, 2021. It made
a 52-week low at Rs 1065 on 19th March 2020 and a 52-week
high of Rs. 1676 on 11th January, 2021. The 200 days
Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily
chart is currently at Rs 1495.65.
As we can see on charts that stock is trading in higher highs
and higher lows sort of rising wedge on weekly charts.
Moreover, stock has consolidated in narrow range and
formed a “Bullish Pennant” pattern, which is considered to
be bullish. Last week, stock has given the breakout of same
by registering gains over 3% and also has managed to close
above the breakout levels. So buying momentum may
continue for coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the
range of 1610-1615 levels for the upside target of 1750-1780
levels with SLbelow 1560.
The stock closed at Rs 903.55 on 05th March, 2021. It made a
52-week low of Rs 519.40 on 19th March, 2020 and a 52-week
high of Rs. 954.50 on 08th January, 2021. The 200 days
Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily
chart is currently at Rs 850.25.
Short term, medium term and long term bias are looking
positive for the stock as it is trading in higher highs and
higher lows on charts. Apart from this, stock is forming a
“Continuation Triangle” on weekly chart which is bullish in
nature. Last week, stock tried to give the breakout of same
but could not hold high levels due to correction in broader
indices but managed to close in green with over 4% gains. So,
more upside is expected from current levels. Therefore, one
can buy in the range of 890-895 levels for the upside target of
970-990 levels with SLbelow 860.
SBI Life Insurance Company Limited (SBILIFE)
Colgate Palmolive (India) Limited(COLPAL)
DERIVATIVES
WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET
It was quite a volatile week for Indian markets as tug of war among bulls and bears kept markets on a roller coaster ride. Nifty indices, however, closed below the
key psychological level of 15000 as profit booking in metal counter along with financials and pharma space kept markets under pressure in later part of the week.
From the derivative front, put writers at 15000 strike are seen unwinding their positions while call writers added hefty open interest in 15000 & 15100 strikes.
The Implied Volatility (IV) of calls closed at 23.58% while that for put options closed at 25.12%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 24.15%. PCR OI for the week
closed at 1.74 indicates more puts writing than calls. For upcoming sessions, we believe that tug of war among bulls and bears will likely to keep markets on
volatile ground and bias is likely to remain in favour of bears as far nifty is holding below 15100 levels. On downside, 14800 would act as immediate support for
Nifty below which further selling pressure can mount which can drag Nifty towards 14600 levels as well.
DIVISLAB
BUY MAR 3450 PUT 81.50
SELL MAR 3350 PUT 46.00
Lot size: 200
BEP: 3414.50
Max. Profit: 12900.00 (64.50*200)
Max. Loss: 7100.00 (35.50*200)
OPTION
STRATEGY
FUTURE
ULTRACEMCO
BUY MAR 6850 CALL 208.20
SELL MAR 6950 CALL 171.55
Lot size: 200
BEP: 6886.65
Max. Profit: 12670.00 (63.35*200)
Max. Loss: 7330.00 (36.65*200)
DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES
HINDUNILVR
BUY MAR 2240 CALL 39.70
SELL MAR 2280 CALL 26.90
Lot size: 300
BEP: 2252.80
Max. Profit: 8160.00 (27.20*300)
Max. Loss: 3840.00 (12.80*300)
8
PVR (MAR FUTURE)
Buy: Above `1492
Target: `1548
Stop loss: `1454
APOLLOHOSP (MAR FUTURE)
Sell: Below `2882
Target: `2832
Stop loss: `2910
BULLISH STRATEGY
CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)
NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)
CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)
BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY)
In lakhs
In 10,000
In lakhs
In 10,000
BEARISH STRATEGY
SRTRANSFIN (MAR FUTURE)
Sell: Below `1279
Target: `1243
Stop loss: `1298
4.20
5.19
5.03
4.00
6.28
5.13
3.05
4.43
16.47
15.26
21.98
16.58
20.98
19.05
24.73
32.44
24.52
17.07
15.43
19.74
4.08
5.30
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
12000 12500 13000 13500 14000 14500 14700 14800 15000 15500 16000
6.10
24.87
11.03
12.95
21.07
15.18
24.65
21.90
22.38
15.06
16.22
16.56
36.37
21.03
12.31
20.83
8.65
7.95
1.67
1.64
2.46
1.88
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
33000 34000 35000 35500 36000 36500 37000 37500 38000 39000 40000
-0.12
-0.20
0.07
-0.03
-0.03
-1.06
-1.37
-1.08
0.45
1.84
-1.40
1.17
0.07
-0.88
-0.67
0.65
-0.24
3.33
3.03
7.16
-0.02
0.27
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
12000 12500 13000 13500 14000 14500 14700 14800 15000 15500 16000
-1.12
1.12
-
4.36
1.39
-2.24
-1.66
-5.12
6.59
3.48
-1.93
0.67
1.92
6.28
2.08
3.27
10.69
2.75
0.76
0.49
0.11
-0.17
0.06
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
33000 34000 35000 35500 36000 36500 37000 37500 38000 39000 40000
Call Put Call Put
Call Put Call Put
DERIVATIVES
SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)
04-Mar 03-Mar 02-Mar 01-Mar 26-Feb
DISCOUNT/PREMIUM 25.50 53.25 39.05 36.20 49.30
COST OF CARRY% 0.69 0.71 0.69 0.67 0.66
PCR(OI) 1.74 1.86 1.75 1.71 1.66
PCR(VOL) 1.26 1.31 1.27 1.15 1.38
A/D RATIO(NIFTY 50) 0.32 5.13 4.44 15.33 AllDown
A/DRATIO(ALLFOSTOCK)* 0.65 4.65 6.22 8.29 0.04
IMPLIED VOLATILITY 23.58 20.67 22.27 24.58 26.66
VIX 24.15 22.09 23.61 25.63 28.14
HISTORICALVOLATILITY 29.13 29.15 29.06 29.10 29.10
*All Future Stock
SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)
Note: All equity derivative data as on 4th March, 2021
**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.
# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup
# Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
#All Future Stock
04-Mar 03-Mar 02-Mar 01-Mar 26-Feb
DISCOUNT/PREMIUM 77.25 123.70 35.15 28.55 66.75
COST OF CARRY% 0.70 0.71 0.65 0.76 0.73
PCR(OI) 0.98 1.04 0.88 0.90 0.80
PCR(VOL) 0.94 1.13 0.99 0.82 1.07
A/D RATIO(BANKNIFTY) 0.38 All up 2.67 2.67 All Down
#
A/D RATIO(ALLFO STOCK) 0.50 All up 3.00 3.00 All Down
IMPLIED VOLATILITY 31.48 29.69 30.64 32.81 34.22
VIX 24.15 22.09 23.61 25.63 28.14
HISTORICALVOLATILITY 41.82 41.86 41.78 41.89 41.95
9
FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT
FII’S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE
In Cr. In Cr.
Top 10 Long Buildup Top Short Buildup
ZEEL 227.05 12.57% 42762000 22.84%
FEDERALBNK 91.20 8.83% 92920000 19.47%
UBL 1228.30 5.42% 1357300 17.80%
CUMMINSIND 888.35 12.56% 1444800 16.55%
ACC 1865.35 6.97% 3321000 15.67%
IBULHSGFIN 244.10 11.33% 36673000 15.49%
BAJAJ-AUTO 3897.65 1.98% 1968500 15.32%
BEL 153.05 11.35% 33721200 14.53%
NAME LTP %PriceChange Openinterest %OIChng
PNB 42.50 5.59% 248304000 40.65%
BANKBARODA 84.55 1.56% 141523200 30.99%
NAME LTP %PriceChange Openinterest %OIChng
GODREJPROP 1519.55 -0.49% 1720550 11.59%
BHARTIARTL 542.95 -2.89% 104374188 9.58%
MANAPPURAM 174.80 -0.96% 19254000 7.11%
APOLLOHOSP 3060.10 -0.15% 1386500 4.41%
SAIL 76.60 -0.58% 124811000 4.04%
IDEA 11.05 -3.07% 889210000 2.87%
-18
749
-160
443
382
-3806
1498
-1894
1372
-2265
-5000
-4000
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
19-Feb 22-Feb 23-Feb 24-Feb 25-Feb 26-Feb 01-Mar 02-Mar 03-Mar 04-Mar
2435
5383
3281
-1439
7947
-1398
2102
-1960
4435
9198
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
19-Feb 22-Feb 23-Feb 24-Feb 25-Feb 26-Feb 01-Mar 02-Mar 03-Mar 04-Mar
10
Turmeric futures (Apr) is expected to maintain its uptrend and trade range-
bound within 8600-9600 levels. The increase in demand for turmeric during
the COVID-19 pandemic has helped Indian farmers mitigate the effects of low
output in recent months. The market is worried about the drastic fall in
output, from 25 quintal per acre to 15 quintal, due to heavy rains. In
Nizamabad around 50,000 acres has been given over to turmeric cultivation.
But this year it shrank to 36,000 acres, as farmers are discouraged by poor
returns for four consecutive years. The increase in consumption of the yellow
spice as an antioxidant is said to be one of the factors that contributed to the
considerable increase in exports and prices. On the spot, the market
participants do not see rising prices being a deterrent as demand from local
buyers, stockists or even exporters. They add that demand is here to stay until
Holi and Ramadan and prices can easily drive higher.Jeera futures (Apr) is
expected to trade range-bound within 13500-14500 with an upside
bias.Traders see steady demand from local stockists, spice millers and
exporters. They also note that the overall demand scenario is good. In Rajkot
itself, jeera rates have gained Rs 85-95/20Kgs so far in the past week. Spot
rates were steady at Unjhamandi, amid strong festive demand despite rising
arrivals. Dhaniya futures (Apr) may witness some correction towards 6700-
6600 levels. New coriander prices continue to face pressure due to cautious
buying by domestic traders. Market is also focusing on purchases being made
by the South Indian millers and the exporters. Lackluster buying by stockists is
weighing on the spice.
SPICES
Bullion prices headed for a third straight weekly decline after Federal Reserve
Chair Jerome Powell disappointed investors with his view on rising yields that
pushed up the dollar and bond yields. Powell repeated his pledge to keep
credit loose and said although the rise in yields was "notable", he did not
consider it a "disorderly" move. Clearly, Powell wasn't dovish enough for
markets overnight and, in some ways, green-lighted higher U.S. yields by
saying he was comfortable with that. The U.S. 10-year yields held above 1.5%,
while the dollar surged to three-month highs. Higher yields increase the
opportunity cost of holding non-interest paying bullion. Markets are also
starting to take into account that with the ramp-up in vaccines, another U.S.
fiscal package and increasing inflation expectations, the Fed might consider
tightening sooner than they expected. The WGC said that the amount of gold
held by ETF's fell by 84.7 tonnes worth $4.6 billion in February. Holdings of the
world's largest gold-backed ETF, SPDR Gold Trust GLD fell to the lowest since
May. Silver fell to $25.21 an ounce and was down 5% for the week, its worst
since late-November. On the technical front, the Gold price may continue to
trade with bearish bias where short term support holds near 43770 breaks and
sustain below it may extend the bearish rally till 42200 levels whereas short
term resistance is seen near 45800. Ahead in this week, we may continue to
witness huge volatility and gold may trade with bearish bias and range would
be 42200-45800 levels whereas, Silver may trade in the range of 62000-67180
levels. Whereas on COMEX gold may trade in the range of $1630-$1720 levels
and Silver may trade in the range of $23.60-$26.90 levels.
BULLIONS
Soybean futures(Apr) is expected to hold support near 4800 levels and
maintain its uptrend as the overall fundamentals are string due to mismatch of
demand-supply in the international market. The BuenosAires Grains Exchange
said it could cut its harvest forecast for 2020/21 soy production in Argentina,
the world's top soymeal exporter, if it does not rain sufficiently in key
producing areas over the weeks ahead. Record U.S. soybean crushings and
exports are already projected to shrink U.S. soybean stocks to a mere 9-1/2
day supply ahead of the next NorthAmerican harvest. The market participants
would also be watching the U.S. Department of Agriculture will update its
estimates on global supplies in a monthly report due on Tuesday. Soy oil
futures (Apr) is looking bullish and can reach 1180-1190 levels, while CPO
futures (Mar) may trade higher towards 1070-1080 levels taking bullish cues
from the international market. On CBOT, US soybean oil has shown a break out
and clocked a 3-year high. The USDA weekly export sales numbers are adding
optimism among the market participants. The latest data showed that net
sales of 5,500 MT for 2020/2021 were up 25 percent from the previous week
and 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. The market participants will
keep a close watch on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board February supply and
demand data is scheduled to release on March 10.The trend of mustard
futures (Apr) is bearish and going ahead we can see a downside of 5200-5100
levels. The deterrent factor is the rising arrivals as the farmers are bringing
their crop finding prices very attractive. Also, mustard oil is witnessing
downfall in prices due to heavy selling and limited demand.
OIL AND OILSEEDS
Crude Oil prices extending gains, after OPEC and its allies agreed not to
increase supply in April as they await a more substantial recovery in demand
amid the coronavirus pandemic. Oil rallied more than 4% hitting its highest in
over a year, after OPEC and its allies agreed to keep production unchanged,
reasoning that the demand recovery from the coronavirus pandemic was still
fragile. The group’s leader Saudi Arabia said it would extend its voluntary oil
output cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd), and decide in coming months
when to gradually phase it out. Russia was allowed to raise output by 130,000
bpd in April and Kazakhstan by another 20,000 bpd. Russia aside, the biggest
winner of an OPEC+ rollover is the U.S. With such price levels, which are now
boosted even more after the news of a possible rollover consensus, the U.S.
can comfortably increase production, even from costly break-even projects.
Ahead in this week crude price may witness huge volatility and continue to
trade with bullish bias within the range of 4530-5040 levels, where buying
near support would be the strategy. Natural gas prices whipsawed and
tumbled over 2%, following a smaller than expected draw in natural gas
inventories. The weather is expected to be colder than normal in the US’s
western portion over the next 2-weeks but warmer than normal in the mid-
west and the east coast. The calendar is now moving into the end of the
withdrawal season, and prices will likely remain range-bound unless there is
another disruption or a cold spell. Ahead in this week, we may expect prices
may trade within a range where support is seen near 185 levels and resistance
is seen near 210 levels.
ENERGY COMPLEX
Cotton futures (Apr) will probably take support around 21750 levels and the
upside may get extended towards 22500 levels. The reasons are firstly, the
International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has revised upwards the
global consumption projections at 24.5 million tonnes (mt) for 2020-21
against 22.8 mt in the previous year. Secondly, cotton exports from India are
likely to rise 50 per cent this year to 75 lakh bales in the 2020-21 crop year
beginning October with revival in global demand from China and Bangladesh in
the last one month. Guar seed (Apr) may find support near 3800 levels and rise
till 3950-4000 levels, while guar gum (Apr) is expected to trade with a positive
bias in the range of 6000-6300 levels. These counters are taking support from
bullish trend oil prices in the international market. Caution about the
pandemic took the upper hand Thursday at a meeting of the OPEC oil cartel
and allied countries, as they left most of their production cuts in place amid
worry that coronavirus restrictions could still undermine recovering demand
for crude. The U.S. contract, which had plunged below zero last year as the
pandemic restrictions on businesses devastated demand for energy, jumped
about 5% on the day to over $64 a barrel. Chana futures (Apr) is looking bullish
for this week as it can test 5200-5250 levels and hence any dip can be
considered as a buying opportunity. The sentiments are firm demand amid
weak stocks of pulses, and bullish tone in dollar chana and strong demand
ahead of Holi festival. On the spot, chana prices have soared amid increasing
demand from Horeca segment and short fall in arrivals of fresh crops
reportedly delayed in the markets of producing areas of Madhya Pradesh.
OTHER COMMODITIES
Base metals may trade with bearish bias as soaring US Treasury bond yields and
dollar index may weigh on counter. Copper can move towards 660 levels and
facing resistance near 715 levels. Signs of weakening demand in top consumer
China and rising mine supply from top copper producers in South America are
weighing on prices. China’s factory activity growth eased in February and
missed market expectation. Copper imports in China are likely to ease as
traders pick up cheaper domestic metal after price rise. The Democratic
Republic of Congo produced 1.587 million tonnes in 2020, up 11.8% from 2019,
the central bank’s statistics showed. Zinc may trade in the range of 205-220.
Lead can trade in the range of 160-170 levels. Zinc treatment charges that
miners pay to smelters to refine concentrate are expected to fall to $200 a
tonne for 2021 from $300 a year ago due to tight mine supply. As per
International Zinc Association, annual demand for zinc in batteries was only
600 tonnes in 2020 but that figure is projected to rise to 77,500 tonnes in 2030.
Nickel may trade with sideways to bearish bias in the range of 1150-1250
levels. China's Tsingshan Holding Group, a nickel and stainless steel giant, will
provide 100,000 tonnes of nickel matte to Huayou Cobalt and battery
materials maker CNGR Advanced Material. One of the major nickel producing
mine’s production at Russia which was on a halt due to water shortage, can
restart production.Aluminum may trade in the range of 168-178 levels. The US
Commerce Department issued final anti-dumping duties on common alloy
aluminum sheet from 18 countries investigated, including up to 242.8% on
imports from Germany.
BASE METALS
11
TREND SHEET
Closing as on 04.03.2021
EXCHANGE COMMODITY CONTRACT CLOSING DATE TREND TREND RATE TREND SUPPORT RESISTANCE CLOSING
PRICE CHANGED CHANGED STOP/LOSS
NCDEX SOYABEAN APR 5002.00 08.02.21 UP 4700.00 4830.00 - 4800.00
NCDEX JEERA APR 14010.00 15.02.21 UP 13750.00 13570.00 - 13500.00
NCDEX REF.SOY OIL APR 1163.10 10.02.21 SIDEWAYS 1100.00 1130.00 1230.00 -
NCDEX RMSEED APR 5347.00 17.02.21 DOWN 5400.00 5670.00 - 5700.00
NCDEX CHANA APR 5012.00 21.01.21 UP 4480.00 4830.00 - 4800.00
NCDEX GUARSEED APR 3875.00 16.02.21 DOWN 3950.00 - 4045.00 4050.00
NCDEX COCUD APR 2266.00 02.02.21 UP 2100.00 2170.00 - 2150.00
NCDEX GUR MAR 1083.50 13.01.21 UP 1060.00 1052.00 - 1050.00
MCX CPO MAR 1050.00 08.02.21 UP 990.00 1030.00 - 1025.00
MCX RUBBER MAR 16309.00 17.02.21 UP 15500.00 15950.00 - 15900.00
MCX MENTHAOIL MAR 950.10 02.02.21 DOWN 976.00 - 977.00 980.00
MCX MCXBULLDEX MAR 14141.00 17.11.20 DOWN 15700.00 - 14450.00 14500.00
MCX SILVER MAY 65921.00 04.03.21 DOWN 66000.00 - 69350.00 69500.00
MCX GOLD APR 44541.00 18.11.20 DOWN 50100.00 - 45900.00 46000.00
MCX MCXMETLDEX MAR 13762.00 04.02.21 UP 13450.00 13400.00 - 13350.00
MCX COPPER MAR 672.85 04.02.21 UP 600.00 662.00 - 660.00
MCX LEAD MAR 163.40 02.02.21 UP 163.00 160.00 - 159.00
MCX ZINC MAR 214.90 09.02.21 UP 215.00 210.00 - 208.00
MCX NICKEL MAR 1162.90 04.03.21 SIDEWAYS 1200.00 1150.00 1260.00 -
MCX ALUMINIUM MAR 171.80 04.02.21 UP 162.00 169.00 - 168.00
MCX CRUDE OIL MAR 4707.00 24.11.20 UP 3220.00 4530.00 - 4500.00
MCX NATURALGAS MAR 200.70 22.02.21 DOWN 210.00 - 218.00 220.00
TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS
COPPER MCX (MAR) contract closed at Rs. 672.85 on 04th Mar’2021. The contract made
its high of Rs. 737.00 on 25th Feb’2021 and a low of Rs. 585.70 on 02nd Jan’2021. The
18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 677.74. On the
daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 56.507.
One can sell near Rs. 688 for a target of Rs. 660 with the stop loss of Rs. 702.
LEAD MCX (MAR) contract closed at Rs. 163.40 on 04th Mar’2021. The contract made its
high of Rs. 174.70 on 25th Feb’2021 and a low of Rs. 157.70 on 22nd Jan’2021. The 18-
day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 167.31. On the
daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 47.974.
One can sell near Rs. 167 for a target of Rs. 160 with the stop loss of Rs. 171.
CHANANCDEX (APR) contract was closed at Rs. 5012.00 on 04th Mar’2021. The contract
made its high of Rs. 5090.00 on 30th Oct’2020 and a low of Rs. 4353.00 on 28th Dec’2020.
The 18-day Exponential MovingAverage of the commodity is currently at Rs. 4815.26. On
the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 74.326.
One can buy near Rs. 5020 for a target of Rs. 5300 with the stop loss of Rs 4880.
NEWS DIGEST
CRB gradually moved higher, however the upside was capped by fall in base metals and bullion
counter. The dollar was up but the safe-haven asset remained broadly weaker as Treasury yields
continued to rise. This also restored calm to global markets and turned investors towards riskier
assets. It was a bearish week for bullions. Gold futures declined, as gains in Treasury bond yields
prompted prices to mark their lowest settlement in nearly nine months. Benchmark U.S.
Treasury yields gained around 1.5%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding bullion. Gold ETF
liquidation resumed in Feb, with outflows at 66t, the largest monthly selling since Dec'16. The
bulk of selling came from North American funds. YTD, ETF investors liquidated nearly 44t, a
sharp contrast to a net addition of 85t during the first two months of 2020.On MCX, it broke the
psychological levels of 45000. Silver too traded weak. Nickel surprised the market with its sharp
fall. It saw a fall of more than 10% on the news that Norilsk Nickel expects to stabilize flooding
issues at two of its mines next week. Secondly, data showed that the Purchasing Managers Index
(PMI) for downstream nickel industries, including stainless steel, electroplating, alloy and
battery, stood at 46.93 in February, down 3.68 points from January. On SHFE, nickel contract
open interests fell 1,341 lots to 101,473 lots. Rest of the metals also nosedived on moving up
bond yield and dollar index. Oil prices rose after OPEC and its allies agreed not to increase
supply in April as they await a more solid recovery in demand from the coronavirus pandemic,
overshadowed a U.S. government report showing a humongous build in crude stocks for last to
last week. However, the rally looked tired from the higher side.
Oil seeds and edible oil futures saw correction from the upside on weak international market.
Soyabean moved down tracking bearish sentiments coming from the international market.
CBOT US soybean futures edged lower, consolidating after strong gains as traders weighed
adverse crop weather in SouthAmerica against forecasts for record Brazilian output and signs of
a lull in Chinese demand. Steep fall was noticed in spot Mustard seed, oil and oil cake prices in
producing states including Rajasthan. Market sentiments dampened as the oil seed arrival
reached to 7 lakh bags in across the country. Heavy arrival and slower demand caused for
decline in prices. CPO futures saw correction after a five-week nonstop rally. Cotton futures
traded sideways as a dip in equity and grain markets spilled over to the natural fiber. Guar was
weak on poor demand in churi and korma.
12
WEEKLY COMMENTARY
COMMODITY UNIT 25.02.21 04.03.21 DIFFERENCE
QTY. QTY.
CASTOR SEED MT 3405 2903 -502
CHANA MT 0 332 332
COCUD MT 76628 73943 -2685
GUARGUM MT 16142 16146 4
GUARSEED MT 28488 28337 -151
GUR MT 0 10 10
JEERA MT 39 147 108
SOYBEAN MT 31548 30691 -857
TURMERIC MT 811 841 30
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)
Ÿ The Fed chief reiterated that the central bank would be
"patient" before changing policy even as it saw inflation
pick up in what it expects would be a transitory fashion.
Ÿ OPEC and its oil-producing allies said the group would
keep production largely steady through April. Saudi
Arabia also said that it would extend its one million
barrels per day voluntary production cut intoApril.
Ÿ Malaysia's palm oil inventories at the end of February
likely rose for a second straight month to touch 1.42
million tonnes, as production picked up for the first time
in five months, a Reuters survey showed.
Ÿ Export sales of soybeans for 2021/22 sit at a 7-year high
and are progressing at a solid pace. Total sales are 4.86
mmt (179 mln bu).
Ÿ The Democratic Republic of Congo produced 85,855
tonnes of cobalt in 2020, up 10% from 2019, the central
bank said, with copper production also jumping 11.8%
year-on-year.
Ÿ International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has
revised upwards the global consumption projections at
24.5 million tonnes (mt) for 2020-21 against 22.8 mt in
the previous year.
Ÿ The Indian government announced import quota of 4
lakh tonnes for urad for 2021-22 as local prices of whole
urad (black matpe) have been rising.
Ÿ Norilsk Nickel expects to stabilize flooding issues at two
of its mines this week.
Ÿ Gold ETF liquidation resumed in Feb, with outflows at
66t, the largest monthly selling since Dec'16.
Ÿ The Caixin/Markit services Purchasing Managers’ Index
(PMI) fell to 51.5, the lowest since April, from 52.0 in
January but remained above the 50-mark that separates
growth from contraction on a monthly basis.
NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)
COMMODITY UNIT 24.02.21 03.03.21 DIFFERENCE
QTY. QTY.
ALUMINIUM MT 673.002 376.652 -296.35
COPPER MT 900.381 987.794 87.41
GOLD KGS 324 324 0.00
GOLD MINI KGS 36.4 102.1 65.70
GOLD GUINEA KGS 5.544 5.256 -0.29
LEAD MT 153.223 152.1854 -1.04
NICKEL MT 998.6875 921.4405 -77.25
SILVER (30 KG Bar) KGS 268845.6199 248346.0156 -20499.60
ZINC MT 2731.267 3032.602 301.34
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)
MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)
2.24%
1.32%
0.60%
0.05%
-14.97%
-4.28% -4.11%
-3.66%
-2.61%
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
CRUDE OIL COTTON KAPAS RUBBER NICKEL COPPER SILVER MICRO LEAD GOLD
7.97%
5.05%
2.75%
1.83%
1.22%
-3.76%
-3.41%
-2.06%
-1.69% -1.57%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
TURMERIC CHANA JEERA MAIZE STEEL LONG BARLEY RM SEED SOY OIL CPO GUARGUM
COMMODITY
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)
Spot Prices (% Change) Castor seed
13
COMMODITY STOCK POSITION STOCK POSITION DIFFERENCE
25.02.21 04.03.21
ALUMINIUM 1332525 1304075 -28450
COPPER 78575 74100 -4475
NICKEL 251058 261534 10476
LEAD 94700 94525 -175
ZINC 270475 269200 -1275
PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)
COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT 26.02.21 04.03.21 CHANGE%
ALUMINIUM LME CASH 2202.50 2169.00 -1.52
COPPER LME CASH 9172.50 8786.50 -4.21
LEAD LME CASH 2107.00 2014.50 -4.39
NICKEL LME CASH 18607.00 16144.00 -13.24
ZINC LME CASH 2821.00 2734.50 -3.07
GOLD COMEX APR 1728.80 1700.70 -1.63
SILVER COMEX MAY 26.40 25.43 -3.67
LIGHTCRUDEOIL NYMEX MAR 61.50 63.83 3.79
NATURALGAS NYMEX APR 2.77 2.75 -0.90
INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES
Commodity Exchange Contract Unit 26.02.21 04.03.21 Difference (%)
Soybean CBOT MAY Dollars Per Bushel 14.04 14.10 0.43
Soy oil CBOT MAY Cents per Pound 49.94 50.71 1.54
CPO BMD MAY MYR per MT 3742.00 3731.00 -0.29
Cotton ICE MAY Cents per Pound 89.00 87.34 -1.87
Castor is a non-edible oilseed crop; basically a cash crop, with average 46% oil
recovery. Castor oil is the largest vegetable oil exported out of India. India is the
biggest exporter of castor oil holding about 80% share of the international trade in
this commodity followed by China & Brazil. Castor oil is primarily used in
manufacturing plastics, lubricants, cosmetics, candles, and painting material.
Castor oil and its derivatives are also used in many medical formulations.
Supply Scenario
• Castor seed production in India is estimated to be 19.02 lakh tonnes in 2020-21
against last year’s estimate of 19.53 lakh tonnes.
• Total area under castor seed cultivation in India for the year 2020-21 is estimated
tobe 8,26,120 hectares as per the government’s estimates against 9,73,190
hectares in 2019-20, which has declined by 15% compared to the previous year.
• India’s average castor seed productivity for the year 2020-21 is estimated to be
2303Kg/Ha as compared to 2007 Kg/Ha last year. It is based on farmer’s
response about their yield expectation on present crop conditions.
• Total area under castor in Gujarat for the year 2020-21 is taken to be 6,38,000
hectaresas per the government’s estimates, against last year’s estimate of 7,40,600
hectares,whichhasdeclinedbyabout14%ascomparedtothepreviousyear.
• Total castor seed production in Gujarat is estimated to be 16.29 lakh tons in
2020-21compared to 16.59 lakh tons last year. The fall in acreages is
compensated by an increase in expected yield.
• Total acreage under castor in Rajasthan for the year 2020-21 is taken to be 1,25,700
hectares as per the government’s estimates against last year’s estimate of
1,54,240hectares,whichhasdeclinedby18.5%comparedtothepreviousseason.
• Total castor seed production in the state is estimated to be 2.36 lakh tons in
2020-21, a decline by 4% from last years’estimate of 2.46 lakh tons.
Demand Scenario
• The country exports about 90 percent of the oil globally with China, the world's
largest importer of castor oil, accounts for 70% of exports from India.
• According to the Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA), India’s castor oil
exports are estimated to have increased to a four-year high of 6.5 lakh tonnesin
2020 with China buying 50 percent of it to build inventory.
• According to SEA data, India’s castor oil exports were 5.45 lakh tonnes in 2019,
5.97 lakh tonnes in 2018 and 6.28 lakh tonnes in 2017. Castor oil shipments have
annually been fetching about ₹5,500 crore.
• While castor oil exports increased last year, castor meal shipments dropped to
3.16 lakh tonnes duringApril-December last year compared with 4.79 lakh tonnes
the previous year. Meal exports showed a rising trend in December, though.
• The Netherlands, France, the US and Japan are other buyers of castor oil from
India, though all of them have purchased below one lakh tonnes only.
• Lower prices may improve domestic consumption of castor oil. Lower inventory
of castor oil with USA& Europe may attract demand also.
-12.25
-2.42
-2.19
-1.49
-1.24
-0.32
-0.21
0.00
0.02
0.73
1.60
2.56
4.13
5.25
5.96
-15.00 -10.00 -5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00
MUSTARD (JAIPUR)
GUAR GUM (JODHPUR)
CRUDE PALM OIL (KANDLA)
GUAR SEED (JODHPUR)
BARLEY (JAIPUR)
WHEAT (DELHI)
SOYABEAN (INDORE)
GUR (MUZAFFARNGR)
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE (AKOLA)
COTTON (KADI)
JEERA (UNJHA)
PEPPER MALABAR GAR (KOCHI)
CORIANDER (KOTA)
CHANA (DELHI)
TURMERIC (NIZAMABAD)
22.95
19.64
17.27
18.7
17.52
14.21 13.96
10.82
19.52
19.02
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21
Castor seed Produc on in India (in lakh ton)
Source: SEA
CURRENCY
Currency Table
Currency Pair Open High Low Close
USD/INR 73.9800 74.0950 72.8125 72.9875
EUR/INR 89.6600 89.6600 87.8700 87.9625
GBP/INR 103.2000 103.4300 101.6500 101.7000
JPY/INR 69.4000 69.5200 68.0225 68.0525
News Flows of last week
(* NSE Currency future, Source: Reliable, Open: Monday 9.00 AM IST, Close: Thursday (5.00 PM IST)
05th MAR Beijing targets 6% GDP growth after reining in coronavirus
04th MAR US suspends tariffs on UK exports inAirbus-Boeing trade dispute
04nd MAR Powell sends dovish message that leaves bond market
disappointed
02nd MAR Rishi Sunak delivers spend now, tax later Budget to kickstart UK
economy
02nd MAR Budget to give £20bn extension to UK Covid support until
September
02nd MAR Covid vaccines show few serious side-effects after millions of jabs
02nd MAR Australia’s treasurer warns global stimulus threatens financial
stability
01st MAR Growth in UK household savings raises hopes of recovery boost
01st MAR Italy and Spain enjoy manufacturing bounce back as demand rises
Market Stance
Indian rupee ended the choppiest week after last week turmoil. A sudden rise in US
bond yields notably 10 year yield surpassed 1.55% for the first time in a year after
Jay Powell, Fed’s Chair vowed to keep monetary policy steady even as the
economy improves and inflation begins to rise supported dollar versus rupee and
other currencies as well. Accordingly Powell said the central bank expected to be
“patient” in withdrawing support for the recovery, given that the labour market
remained far from the central bank’s goal of full employment and had made little
progress in recent months. From the majors, the UK budget announcement
indicated to focus on stimulus for the economy, and not address the record budget
deficit for another two years. The UK pound likely to remains within a tight 1.3850-
1.40 trading range in for next week. However the euro is getting weaker in the wake
of stronger dollar. Additionally EZ retail sales were down 5.9% in January, much
worse than both the previous months +1.8% and expectations of -1.4% which
triggered the eurusd lower.
14
EUR/INR (MAR) contract closed at 87.9625 on 04-Mar-2021. The contract made its
high of 89.6600 on 01-Mar-2021 and a low of 87.8700 on 04-Mar-2021 (Weekly Basis).
The 21-day Exponential MovingAverage of the EUR/INR is currently at 88.6838.
On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 41.06.
One can sell at 87.80 for a target of 86.80 with the stop loss of 88.30.
EUR/INR
USD/INR (MAR) contract closed at 72.9875 on 04-Mar-2021. The contract made its
high of 74.0950 on 01-Mar-2021 and a low of 72.8125 on 04-Mar-2021 (Weekly Basis).
The 21-day Exponential MovingAverage of the USD/INR is currently at 73.2724.
On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of
44.33. One can buy at 72.90 for the target of 73.90 with the stop loss of 72.40.
USD/INR
Technical Recommendation
GBP/INR (MAR) contract closed at 101.7000 on 04-Mar-2021. The contract made
its high of 103.4300 on 01-Mar-2021 and a low of 101.6500 on 04-Mar-2021 (Weekly
Basis).The21-dayExponentialMovingAverageoftheGBP/INRiscurrentlyat101.7200.
On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 51.83.
One can buy at 101.50 for a target of 102.50 with the stop loss of 101.00.
GBP/INR
JPY/INR (MAR) contract closed at 68.0525 on 04-Mar-2021. The contract made its
high of 69.5200 on 01-Mar-2021 and a low of 68.0225 on 04-Mar-2021 (Weekly Basis).
The 21-day Exponential MovingAverage of the JPY/INR is currently at 69.2711.
On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 31.50.
One can sell at 68.10 for a target of 67.10 with the stop loss of 68.60.
JPY/INR
Economic gauge for the next week
Date Currency Event Previous
10-Mar USD CPI m/m 0.30%
10-Mar USD Core CPI m/m 0.00%
10-Mar USD Crude Oil Inventories
10-Mar USD 10-y Bond Auction 1.16|2.4
11-Mar EUR Main Refinancing Rate 0.00%
11-Mar EUR Monetary Policy Statement
11-Mar EUR ECB Press Conference
12-Mar INR Inflation Rate YoY FEB 4.06%
12-Mar INR Industrial Production YoY JAN 1%
IPO
IPO
IPO
IPO
15
About the Company
Incorporated in 2008, Easy Trip Planners Ltd is the second largest online travel agency in India in
terms of gross revenue. Easy Trip offers a range of online traveling services through its website and
Ease My Trip android and iOS mobile app. As of November 2019, the firm has served customers with
more than 400 domestic and international airlines, and 1,096,400 hotels. As of March 2019, it had
49,494 registered travel agents across major cities of India
Strength
One of the leading online travel agencies in India with a customer focused approach, including
the option of no-convenience fee: As of December 31, 2020, the company provided its customers
with access to more than 400 international and domestic airlines, more than 1,096,400 hotels in India
and international jurisdictions, almost all the railway stations in India as well as bus tickets and taxi
rentals for major cities in India. It has been providing customers with the option of no-convenience
fee, such that customers are not required to pay any service fee in instances where there are no
alternate discounts or promotion coupon being availed.
Consistent track record of financial and operational performance with lean and cost efficient
operations: The company experienced significant revenue growth from sale of airline tickets
between Fiscal 2018 and Fiscal 2019, of 35.22% and 35% for GoAir and SpiceJet, respectively. It
believes that the consistent growth in its business is attributable to its technology driven operations
and low operational costs resulting in comparatively higher operating margins.
Wide distribution network supported by a hybrid platform: The Company’s three distinct distribution
channels, namely B2C, B2E and B2B2C channels provide it with a diversified customer base and wide
distribution network. These channels enable the company to provide end-to-end travel solutions for
passengers traveling domestically, as well as traveling to and from international destinations.
Well-recognized brand with a targeted marketing strategy: The company believes that its leading
market position and operational history have led to recognition of the ‘EaseMyTrip’ brand in India,
enabling it to target new customers and provide better leverage when contracting with airlines and
hotel suppliers.
Strategies
Capitalize on travel industry growth opportunities: The company believes that there are
significant opportunities for the company to further expand its customer base and, at the same time,
increase its market share in India.
Focus on expanding hotel and holiday packages, and railway ticketing operations:As of December
31, 2020, it has partnered with 23APIs for hotels, which has increased its hotel suppliers network and
also provided access to more international hotels on a real time basis. Accordingly, in order to
capitalize on such growth opportunities, it intends to focus on direct tie-ups with hotels and hotel
suppliers by complementing its existing technology platforms, which it believes would help it reduce
its costs associated with confirmation of reservations.
Leverage its existing travel agent network in Tier II and Tier III cities and focus on corporate
business to grow its business: The company believes a considerable number of customers in India,
especially from Tier II and Tier III cities, still utilize and are expected to continue to utilize the
services of traditional travel agents. It intends to strengthen its presence among corporates by
leveraging its existing travel agent network and also by integrating its travel software with its
corporate customers IT systems to act a ‘one-stop’solution for all of their travel requirements.
Risk factor
• The company is dependent on its airline ticketing business, which generates a significant
percentage of its revenues and is derived from a small number of airline suppliers in India.
• The travel industry for India and India-related travel is intensely competitive, and it may not be
able to effectively compete in the future.
Outlook
Easy Trip Planners Ltd. (ETPL) is well known for its online tour web portal EaseMyTrip.com. and
EaseMyTrip.in. According to the management, it follows the most advanced and latest technology
including mobile applications for its operations that helps it for better cost controls and higher
yields. The company is operating an asset-light model of business with negligible borrowings.
Investors may consider investing in this IPO with a long term perspective.
EASY TRIP PLANNERS LIMITED
Issue Highlights
Industry Travelandtourisim
Offer for sale (Shares) 27,272,727
Fresh Issue (Shares) 0
Total Offer 27,272,727
Issue Size (Rs. Cr.) 507-510
Price Band (Rs.) 186-187
Offer Date 8-Mar-21
Close Date 10-Mar-21
Face Value 2
Lot Size 80
Issue Composition
Total Issue for Sale 27,272,727
QIB 20,454,545
NIB 4,090,909
Retail 2,727,273
In shares
Valuation
Considering the P/E valuation on the upper price band of
Rs.187, EPS and P/E of estimated annualised FY2021 are
Rs.3.75 and 49.89 multiple respectively and at a lower
price band of Rs. 186, P/E multiple is 49.62. Looking at
the P/B ratio on the upper price band of Rs.187, book
value and P/B of estimated annualised FY21 are Rs.
13.10and 14.28multiple respectively and at a lower price
band of Rs. 186 P/B multiple is 214.20. No change in pre
and post issue EPS and Book Value as the company is not
making fresh issue of capital.
Book Running Lead Manager
Ÿ Axis Capital Limited
Ÿ JM Financial Limited
Name of the registrar
Ÿ KFin Technologies Private Limited
Objects of the Issue
The objects of the Offer are to achieve the benefits of
listing the Equity Shares on the Stock Exchanges and
for the sale of up to [●] Equity Shares by the Promoter
Selling Shareholders aggregating up to Rs.5,100
million.
(2.5/5)
FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR
16
FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES
12M 18M 24M 36M 48M 60M 84M
PERIOD
ADDITIONAL RATE OF INTEREST (%)
MIN.
(`)
INVESTMENT
NBFC COMPANY - NAME
S.NO
`20000/- BUT
`40000/-
IN MONTHLY
OPTION
HDFC LTD- SPECIAL DEPOSIT FOR INDIVIDUAL
(UPTO `2 CR.)
0.25% FOR SENIOR CITIZEN UPTO `2 CR.
33M=5.95 66M=6.40 99M=6.45 - -
33M=5.80 66M=6.25 99M=6.30 - - -
39M= 6.05% 45M= 6.20% 65M= 6.45% - -
ICICI HOME FINANCE (UPTO `1.99 CR.)
6.75 - 7.25 7.35 - - - -
J K LAKSHMI CEMENT LTD `100000/-
EMPLOYEES & SHAREHOLDERS - MAX. 0.50%
0.50% ADD. INTEREST TO SR. CITIZEN,
LIC HOUSING FINANCE LTD. (UPTO `20 CR.) 5.65 5.65 5.65 5.75 - - 5.75 - `20000/-
0.25% FOR SENIOR CITIZEN
7.50 - 7.70 8.15 - 8.20 8.40 -
SHRIRAM TRANSPORT FINANCE-UNNATI SCHEME `5000/-
0.25% EXTRA FOR RENEWALS
0.40% FOR SENIOR CITIZEN,
7.50 - 7.70 8.15 - 8.20 8.40 -
SHRIRAM CITY UNION SCHEME `5000/-
0.40% FOR SENIOR CITIZEN,
0.25% EXTRA FOR RENEWALS
(UPTO `2 CR.)
HDFC LTD- REGULAR DEPOSIT FOR INDIVIDUAL
0.25% FOR SENIOR CITIZEN UPTO `2 CR.
5.70 - 5.75 5.95 - 5.95 6.20 -
6.00 - 6.00 6.00 - 5.75 5.75 -
KTDFC (Kerala Transport) `10000/-
HDFC LTD- PREMIUM DEPOSIT FOR TRUST
(UPTO `2 CR.)
-
15M=5.70 - - 30M=5.75 - -
0.25% EXTRA FOR SR. CITIZEN
4.30 - 5.55 5.95 - 6.20 6.25 6.45
`5000/-
M&M FINANCIAL SERVICES LTD (UPTO `1 CRORE) 0.25% FOR SENIOR CITIZEN
FOR RENEWAL
0.25% EXTRA FOR SR. CITIZEN, 0.10% EXTRA
BAJAJ FINANCE LTD.INDIVIDUAL & HUF
(UPTO `5 CR.)
`25000/-
6.15 - 6.60 7.00 - 7.00 7.00 -
(>`2 CR TO `5 CR)
HDFC LTD- REGULAR FOR INDIVIDUAL & TRUST
0.25% FOR SENIOR CITIZEN UPTO `2 CR.
15M=5.75 22M=5.85 30M=5.85 44M=6.10
`10000/-
HDFC LTD- REGULAR DEPOSIT FOR TRUST
(UPTO `2 CR.)
-
5.60 - 5.65 5.85 - 5.85 6.10 -
HDFC LTD- PREMIUM DEPOSIT FOR INDIVIDUAL
(UPTO `2 CR.)
0.25% FOR SENIOR CITIZEN UPTO `2 CR.
5.70 6.00 6.20 6.30 44M=6.45 6.45 6.45 -
ICICI HOME FINANCE (UPTO `1.99 CR.)
* Interest Rate may be revised by company from time to time. Please confirm Interest rates before submitting the application.
* For Application of Rs.50 Lac & above, Contact to Head Office.
* Email us at fd@smcindiaonline.com
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
16
17
`10000/-
PNB HOUSING FINANCE LTD.(UPTO `5 CR.) 0.25% EXTRA FOR SR. CITIZEN UPTO `1 CRORE
5.90 - 6.15 6.60 - 6.60 6.70 6.70
15
5.45 - 5.55 5.85 - 5.85 5.95 -
HDFC LTD- SPECIAL DEPOSIT FOR TRUST
(UPTO `2 CR.)
0.25% EXTRA FOR SR. CITIZEN `10000/-
0.25% EXTRA FOR SR. CITIZEN
Note: Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option. The above mentioned data is on the basis of 04/03/2021
Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 5.5%
MUTUAL FUND Performance Charts
TAX FUND
EQUITY (Diversified)
INCOME FUND
SHORT TERM FUND Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns
BALANCED
Returns (%) Risk Average Yield till
Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM Since Std. Sharpe
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y
Maturity (Years) Maturity
(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
Franklin India STIP - Growth 3937.47 31-Jan-2002 5375.51 15.74 14.30 15.57 20.05 -1.01 2.80 7.44 48.68 -0.12 N.A 10.44
Aditya Birla Sun Life Medium Term Plan - R - G 24.02 25-Mar-2009 1944.12 19.29 14.29 23.45 11.03 8.58 3.46 7.61 56.01 -0.04 4.56 7.22
HDFC Medium Term Debt Fund - Growth 43.04 06-Feb-2002 1961.84 2.62 -2.30 -0.31 6.05 6.48 7.99 7.95 22.00 0.12 4.12 6.69
Aditya Birla Sun Life Short Term F - R - G 36.34 09-May-2003 7864.28 3.33 -0.52 1.02 5.18 9.26 8.39 7.50 19.49 0.15 2.57 5.31
Kotak Credit Risk Fund - Reg - Growth 23.20 11-May-2010 1862.47 8.83 2.32 3.93 4.76 4.42 7.05 8.09 21.97 0.06 2.44 7.29
ICICI Pru Banking & PSU Debt F - R - G 24.92 01-Jan-2010 14443.60 5.89 2.79 2.21 4.72 7.16 8.14 8.51 19.87 0.15 2.66 4.82
ICICI Pru Short Term Fund - Growth 45.64 25-Oct-2001 21821.40 2.63 0.36 1.29 4.69 8.12 8.44 8.15 17.47 0.19 2.67 5.11
Annualised
Annualised
Returns (%) Risk
Average Yield till
Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM Since Std. Sharpe
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y
Maturity (Years) Maturity
(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
HDFC Credit Risk Debt Fund - R - Growth 18.10 25-Mar-2014 6402.16 4.96 2.68 4.78 9.48 8.62 8.45 8.91 20.31 0.18 2.50 8.05
Axis Corporate Debt Fund - Reg - G 13.11 13-Jul-2017 2643.51 3.86 1.81 1.91 4.62 8.58 8.04 7.70 29.68 0.07 1.70 4.79
Aditya Birla Sun Life Credit Risk F - R - G 15.23 17-Apr-2015 1672.07 14.18 9.21 8.94 8.96 8.50 6.07 7.41 27.16 0.01 2.12 7.46
IDFC Corporate Bond Fund - Reg - G 14.91 12-Jan-2016 20704.00 4.38 -2.08 -0.49 3.46 8.40 8.26 8.07 24.22 0.11 2.98 5.56
ICICI Pru All Seasons Bond Fund - Growth 27.80 20-Jan-2010 4915.51 4.92 0.99 2.42 4.91 8.26 9.31 9.62 24.01 0.18 3.63 6.02
HDFC Corporate Bond Fund - Growth 24.74 29-Jun-2010 24728.50 5.04 -1.56 -1.55 3.75 8.24 9.03 8.85 23.00 0.16 4.36 5.35
Sundaram Corporate Bond Fund - R - G 31.03 30-Dec-2004 1257.69 5.82 -0.49 2.90 3.59 7.81 9.00 7.24 21.77 0.19 2.22 4.83
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
ICICI Pru Equity & Debt Fund - Growth 175.48 03-Nov-1999 16248.60 18.86 33.80 33.42 11.12 14.36 2.58 0.72 62.20 7.07 5.98 24.75
Kotak Equity Hybrid Fund - Growth 34.29 05-Nov-2014 1248.05 14.33 32.95 32.98 12.26 11.01 2.52 0.75 47.76 19.30 12.36 20.58
UTI Hybrid Equity Fund - Growth 211.32 20-Jan-1995 3743.95 14.65 29.31 32.78 7.59 14.95 2.42 0.72 51.02 13.25 8.10 27.63
HDFC Hybrid Equity Fund - Growth 69.22 06-Apr-2005 16919.30 14.96 31.06 31.65 8.05 12.92 2.49 0.75 59.55 5.56 8.08 26.80
HDFC Hybrid Equity F - R - G (Adjusted-NAV) 69.22 11-Sep-2000 16919.30 14.96 31.06 31.65 10.18 15.70 2.49 0.75 59.55 5.56 8.08 26.80
Edelweiss Balanced Advantage F - G 32.06 20-Aug-2009 1856.90 9.68 21.58 30.75 12.78 10.62 1.74 0.51 58.38 8.76 2.53 30.34
Franklin India Equity Hybrid Fund - G 156.22 10-Dec-1999 1330.56 12.82 30.93 29.88 11.08 13.81 2.41 0.71 62.00 9.65 4.04 24.31
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Beta Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
IDFC Tax Advantage (ELSS) Fund - R - G 77.50 26-Dec-2008 2434.42 23.02 44.75 47.37 10.02 18.28 3.41 0.99 0.06 50.62 21.07 26.00 2.31
Mirae Asset Tax Saver Fund - R - G 26.12 28-Dec-2015 4868.21 17.90 38.84 44.42 16.93 20.34 3.20 0.97 0.13 69.64 17.88 8.32 4.16
BOI AXA Tax Advantage Fund - Eco - G 85.83 25-Feb-2009 339.75 16.08 35.53 42.91 13.73 19.57 2.76 0.79 0.24 51.72 30.51 12.33 5.44
BOI AXA Tax Advantage Fund - Reg - G 80.30 25-Feb-2009 339.75 15.91 35.12 42.02 12.93 18.91 2.76 0.79 0.23 51.72 30.51 12.33 5.44
Canara Robeco Equity Tax Saver F - G 97.02 02-Feb-2009 1309.14 17.71 38.22 40.02 17.97 20.68 3.01 0.89 0.15 70.80 22.85 3.84 2.51
PGIM India Long Term Equity Fund - R - G 19.07 11-Dec-2015 329.70 16.49 35.83 38.29 11.15 13.13 2.96 0.89 0.04 82.46 5.66 10.15 1.73
SBI Long Term Equity Fund - Growth 188.02 31-Mar-1993 8009.17 16.19 32.83 38.19 9.50 15.67 2.96 0.87 0.02 67.53 20.30 11.54 0.63
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Beta Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
IDFC Emerging Businesses Fund - R - G 16.76 25-Feb-2020 726.18 19.63 38.86 69.46 N.A 65.75 2.83 0.54 0.60 8.32 11.06 71.32 9.30
PGIM India Midcap Opp. Fund - R - G 32.08 02-Dec-2013 440.88 23.77 49.00 67.17 17.34 17.42 3.18 0.86 0.31 8.25 64.82 23.03 3.90
SBI Contra Fund - Growth 157.04 05-Jul-1999 1461.39 23.04 50.57 60.76 9.92 18.51 3.12 0.87 0.12 48.37 15.29 30.64 5.70
Kotak Small Cap Fund - Reg - Growth 119.60 24-Feb-2005 2035.74 25.60 55.63 59.94 14.51 16.74 3.35 0.85 0.28 4.84 27.01 66.17 1.98
DSP Natural Resources & New Energy F - R - G 43.49 25-Apr-2008 348.89 21.40 46.06 59.33 6.24 12.11 3.77 0.92 0.09 54.14 18.30 0.44 27.12
Nippon India Small Cap Fund - Growth 60.39 16-Sep-2010 10009.80 26.15 46.80 57.19 9.44 18.74 3.46 0.91 0.15 7.87 21.20 69.37 1.57
Edelweiss Small Cap Fund - Reg - G 17.97 07-Feb-2019 563.16 25.48 48.26 56.21 N.A 32.72 3.24 0.83 0.26 N.A 32.07 66.49 1.44
18
*Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
Mr. Ajay Garg (CEO & Director, SMC Group) during the inauguration of SMC's New Branch at Chandigarh
on 5th February, 2021.
Mr. Ajay Garg (CEO & Director, SMC Group) and Mrs. Reema Garg (Director & CHRO, SMC Group)
during the inauguration of SMC's New Branch at Varanasi on 1st March, 2021.
Wise money

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Wise money

  • 1. WISE M NEY 2021: Issue 778, Week: 8th - 12th March A Weekly Update from SMC (For private circulation only) Brand smc 561 11 March, 2021 HAPPY MAHA SHIVRATRI
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  • 3. From The Desk Of Editor (Saurabh Jain) SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision. SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered byAnalyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered byAnalyst. The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true. SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSLand NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration withAMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor. SMC is a SEBI registered ResearchAnalyst having registration number INH100001849. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities market. n the week gone by markets across the globe continued to decline due to rising Ibond yields causing investors to question the sky-high valuations of tech stocks in particular. The 10-year bond yields climbed higher on mounting expectations of stronger economic growth and faster inflation after the pandemic ends. Meanwhile, Powell said that he would keep credit flowing until Americans are back to work, rebutting investors who have openly doubted he can stick to that promise once the pandemic passes. Actually, Markets were expecting him to signal more bond purchases to hold down longer-term interest rates. Oil prices spiked to their highest in over a year as OPEC and its allies agreed to extend most oil output cuts intoApril, after deciding that the demand recovery from the pandemic remained fragile. Back home, market continued to see volatile movements owing to uncertainty in global markets over inflation and consequent rise in bond yields. The Indian economy seems to be moving on the path of faster recovery with key indicators on consumption and investment showing a sharp slowdown in contraction in January, 2021. Meanwhile, the Indian economy emerged out of technical recession in October- December 2020 and grew 0.4 per cent with improvement in manufacturing, construction and agriculture. However, former Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Arvind Panagariya has said that it might take longer to become a USD 5 trillion economy due to the coronavirus pandemic-induced disruptions. The inflation target for the Reserve Bank of India's MPC for the next five years starting April is likely to be notified around mid-March. Investors would continue to track global cues particularly the bond yields for any directional move. Besides, movement of currency, inflow and out flow of foreign fund, macroeconomic data and crude oil prices will continue to dictate the trend of the market going forward. On the commodity market front, CRB gradually moved higher, however the upside was capped by fall in base metals and bullion counter. The dollar was up but the safe- haven asset remained broadly weaker as Treasury yields continued to fall. Base metals saw sharp fall last week due to resumption of mines amid unlock of long positions. Nickel fell the most. This week we may see consolidation in this counter. Gold slumped to a near nine-month low on Friday and witnessed continuous three-week decline after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell disappointed investors with his view on rising yields that pushed up the dollar and bond yields. Gold and silver may see consolidation in the range of 43000-46000 and 63000-68000 respectively. Oil prices rose after OPEC and its allies agreed not to increase supply in April as they await a more solid recovery in demand from the coronavirus pandemic. GDP of Euro Area, UK and Italy, Inflation Rate of Mexico and China, Core Inflation Rate and Inflation Rate of US, BoC Interest Rate Decision, New Yuan Loans of China, ECB Interest Rate Decision and ECB Press Conference, Unemployment Rate of Canada etc. many important triggers for commodities this week. Commodity 10-13 Equity 4-7 Currency 14 Contents Derivatives 8-9 IPO 15 Mutual Fund 17-18 FD Monitor 16 Tel: 91-22-67341600, Fax: 91-22-67341697 S D Road, Secunderabad, Telangana-500003 CHENNAI OFFICE: Salzburg Square, Flat No.1, III rd Floor, Door No.107, Harrington Road, Chetpet, Chennai - 600031. SECUNDERABAD OFFICE: 315, 4th Floor Above CMR Exclusive, BhuvanaTower, KOLKATA OFFICE: 18, Rabindra Sarani, Poddar Court, Gate No-4,5th Floor, Kolkata-700001 Tel.: 033 6612 7000/033 4058 7000, Fax: 033 6612 7004/033 4058 7004 Jay Coach Signal, Goreagon (East) Mumbai - 400063 Tel: 044-39109100, Fax -044- 39109111 AHMEDABAD OFFICE : 10/A, 4th Floor, Kalapurnam Building, Near Municipal Market, C G Road, Ahmedabad-380009, Gujarat Tel : 91-79-26424801 - 05, 40049801 - 03 Ph.: +91-11- 43035012, 42720372, Email: ss@sandsmarketing.in DUBAI OFFICE: 2404, 1 Lake Plaza Tower, Cluster T, Jumeriah Lake Towers, Tel : 040-30031007/8/9 PO Box 117210, Dubai, UAE Tel: 97145139780 Fax : 97145139781 Email ID : pankaj@smccomex.com smcdmcc@gmail.com B-26, Ground Floor, Patparganj Industrial Area, Delhi - 110092 (India) Printed and Published on behalf of Mr. Saurabh Jain @ Publication Address 11/6B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road, New Delhi-110005 Website: www.smcindiaonline.com Investor Grievance : igc@smcindiaonline.com Printed at: S&S MARKETING SMC GLOBAL SECURITIES LTD. REGISTERED OFFICES: 11 / 6B, Shanti Chamber, Pusa Road, New Delhi 110005. Tel: 91-11-30111000, Fax: 91-11-25754365 MUMBAI OFFICE: Lotus Corporate Park, A Wing 401 / 402 , 4th Floor , Graham Firth Steel Compound, Off Western Express Highway, SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT: Some forward statements on projections, estimates, expectations, outlook etc are included in this update to help investors / analysts get a better comprehension of the Company's prospects and make informed investment decisions. Actual results may, however, differ materially form those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, Impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Investors are advised to consult their certified financial advisors before making any investments to meet their financial goals. DISCLAIMER: This report is for informational purpose only and contains information, opinion, material obtained from reliable sources and every effort has been made to avoid errors and omissions and is not to be construed as an advice or an offer to act on views expressed therein or an offer to buy and/or sell any securities or related financial instruments, SMC, its employees and its group companies shall not be responsible and/or liable to anyone for any direct or consequential use of the contents thereof. Reproduction of the contents of this report in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the SMC is prohibited. Please note that we and our affiliates, officers, directors and employees, including person involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) may trade in this securities in ways different from those discussed in this report or (c) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instrument of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such Company (ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect of any recommendation and related information and opinions,All disputes shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction or Delhi High Court.
  • 4. TREND SHEET Stocks *Closing Trend Date Rate Support Resistance Closing Price Trend Trend S/l Changed Changed S&P BSE SENSEX 50405 UP 17.07.20 37020 46250 - 44200 NIFTY50 14938 UP 17.07.20 10901 13600 - 13000 NIFTY IT 25230 UP 05.06.20 13665 24000 - 23000 NIFTY BANK 35228 UP 06.11.20 26799 31000 - 29000 ACC 1824 UP 17.04.20 1173 1690 - 1650 BHARTIAIRTEL* 533 UP 13.11.20 476 - - 530 BPCL 462 UP 15.01.21 415 400 - 390 CIPLA 805 UP 09.04.20 580 760 - 740 SBIN 384 UP 06.11.20 219 340 - 310 HINDALCO 338 UP 30.04.20 130 300 - 280 ICICI BANK** 609 UP 09.10.20 402 - - 580 INFOSYS 1317 UP 30.04.20 716 1200 - 1170 ITC 209 UP 20.11.20 192 205 - 200 L&T 1464 UP 13.11.20 1052 1400 - 1350 MARUTI 7249 DOWN 26.02.21 6866 - 7350 7600 NTPC 109 UP 05.02.21 100 92 - 90 ONGC 115 UP 27.11.20 79 93 - 90 RELIANCE 2179 UP 19.02.21 2080 2000 - 1970 TATASTEEL 733 UP 16.10.20 394 650 - 620 NOTES: 1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of "Morning Mantra ". 2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view. Closing as on 05-03-2021 EQUITY NEWS Economy • According to the survey results from IHS Markit showed, India's service sector activity expanded at a faster rate in February. The IHS Markit services Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 55.3 in February from 52.8 in January. Economists had forecast a score of 53.0. Any reading above 50.0 indicates expansion in the sector. Pharmaceuticals • Unichem Laboratories has received ANDA approval for its Guanfacine Tablets, USP 1 mg and 2 mg from the United States Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) to market a generic version of TENEX® (Guanfacine) Tablets 1 mg and 2 mg of Promius Pharma LLC. Telecom • Tejas Networks announced that GigNet, a leading digital infrastructure company in Mexico, has selected the company's optical networking and broadband access products for their state-of-the-art, high-capacity fiber optic network expansion in the Cancun region of Mexico. • RailTel Corporation of India (the Company) has received an Advance Purchase Order amounting to Rs. 25.46 crores per annum (plus GST) from Bharat Sanchar Nigam (BSNL) for commissioning of the Point-to-Point Links. Construction • Dilip Buildcon has received letter of acceptance National Highways Authority for two hybrid annuity projects 'Bangalore-Chennai Expressway' under Bharatmala Pariyojana in the State of Karnataka, Phase I (Package I & II) worth Rs 2439 crore. • NBCC (India) has executed a MoU with Rashtriya Ispat Nigam (RINL) for redevelopment and monetization of 22.19 acres of Land Parcels at Maddilapalem, Visakhapatnam on 26 February 2021 on self sustainable model. • Ircon International has been awarded the work for replacement of mechanical signaling at various locations at Moradabad at the expected completion cost of Rs.187.80 crore. The tenure for execution of the works is 24 months. This work has been awarded on competitive bidding basis among PSUs by the Northern Railways, Ministry of Railways. Capital Goods • Isgec Heavy Engineering has secured an order for Waste Heat Recovery Boilers from the Cement industry and this time the capacity of the boilers will make them the largest in the world. The order has been received from Shree Cement, one of the largest cement manufacturing companies in India. Information Technology • Tata Consultancy Services has expanded its strategic partnership with VodafoneZiggo B.V. Netherlands to help the latter speed up its fixed fiber network roll out, enabling superior connectivity for subscribers and faster launch of new services. Cables • Finolex Cables announced the launch of new range of decorative fans and lighting products to strengthen its FMEG portfolio. These exclusive fans have been introduced to time the approaching summer season. The stylish range includes FLEENOR, GLADIATOR NXG & ALESSANDRA NXG ceiling fans. Their attractive looks, along with aerodynamic design makes them a visual treat. Powered by a powerful Copper motor these Hi speed fans deliver air to every corner of the room. INTERNATIONAL NEWS • US factory orders surged up by 2.6 percent after jumping by an upwardly revised 1.6 percent in December. Economists had expected factory orders to advance by 2.1 percent compared to the 1.1 percent increase originally reported for the previous month. • US initial jobless claims inched up to 745,000, an increase of 9,000 from the previous week's revised level of 736,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to rise to 750,000 from the 730,000 originally reported for the previous week. • US labor productivity tumbled by 4.2 percent in the fourth quarter compared to the previously reported 4.8 percent nosedive. Economists had expected the slump in productivity to be revised to 4.7 percent. • Eurozone retail sales declined more than expected in January as strict restrictions to contain the spread of the Covid-19 dampened demand for non-food products. Another official report showed that the jobless rate in the currency bloc remained unchanged in January. • The euro area jobless rate remained unchanged in January. The unemployment rate held steady at 8.1 percent and up from 7.4 percent in the same period last year. The rate was forecast to rise to 8.3 percent. 4 DOMESTIC FORTHCOMING EVENTS BoardMeeting CompanyName Purpose 11-Mar-21 BannariAmm Spg. Accounts, Right Issue 10-Mar-21 REC Ltd Interim Dividend 8-Mar-21 R Systems Intl. Scheme ofAmalgamation 8-Mar-21 Mold-Tek Technol Interim Dividend 9-Mar-21 McDowell Hold. Quarterly Results 8-Mar-21 Supreme Engg. Quarterly Results 11-Mar-21 Renaiss. Global Interim Dividend 12-Mar-21 The Ramco Cement Interim Dividend 12-Mar-21 Ramco Inds. Interim Dividend 12-Mar-21 Supreme Petroch. Others, Reduction in Capital 12-Mar-21 HatsunAgroProd. Others 12-Mar-21 Bharat Dynamics Interim Dividend 16-Mar-21 Bharat Electron Interim Dividend 22-Mar-21 Vaibhav Global Stock Split Ex-Date Particulars Dividend 8-Mar-21 Power Grid Corpn 40% 2nd Interim Dividend 9-Mar-21 KEI Industries 100% Interim Dividend 9-Mar-21 Thangamayil Jew. 60% Interim Dividend 10-Mar-21 Kirl. Ferrous 40% InterimDividend 10-Mar-21 Marico 450% Second Interim Dividend 19-Mar-21 Ambuja Cements 50% Final Dividend 30-Mar-21 ACC 140% Final Dividend 30-Mar-21 CRISIL 1400% Final Dividend *BHARTIARTL has broken the support of 550 **ICICIBANK has broken the support of 610
  • 5. BSE SENSEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change) NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change) SECTORAL INDICES (% Change) GLOBAL INDICES (% Change) INDIAN INDICES (% Change) FII/FPI & DII ACTIVITY (In Rs. Crores) 5 EQUITY SMC Trend SMC Trend IT Metal Oil & Gas Power Cap Goods Cons Durable Auto Bank Realty FMCG Healthcare BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap FII / FPI Activity DII trading activity Nifty Sensex Nifty Next S&P CNX 500 Down Sideways Up SMC Trend Hang Seng Shanghai FTSE 100 CAC 40 Nikkei Strait times Nasdaq Dow jones S&P 500 3.80 3.56 5.03 5.45 4.53 4.17 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 Ni y Sensex BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap Ni y Next 50 S&P CNX 500 4.42 3.23 3.16 3.83 3.07 3.19 5.67 3.60 3.34 5.93 3.66 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 Auto Index Bankex Cap Goods Index Cons Durable Index FMCG Index Healthcare Index IT Index Metal Index Oil & Gas Index Power Index Realty Index 2.23 0.89 2.58 1.76 -3.55 -0.03 -1.12 -0.12 -0.16 -4.00 -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 Nasdaq Comp. Dow Jones S&P 500 Nikkei Strait Times Hang Seng Shanghai Comp. FTSE 100 CAC 40 -8295.17 125.15 2223.16 2088.70 1499.70 -10000.00 -8000.00 -6000.00 -4000.00 -2000.00 0.00 2000.00 4000.00 Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday 392.91 -223.11 -194.88 -854.04 -788.19 -3.00 -0.10 12.46 11.33 10.80 9.60 8.21 -4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 Grasim Inds Adani Ports UltraTech Cem. UPL Shree Cement Bhar Airtel Coal India -3.17 10.82 6.46 6.22 6.17 5.40 -4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 UltraTech Cem. Kotak Mah. Bank Infosys Asian Paints Tech Mahindra Bhar Airtel
  • 6. Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months. 6 EQUITY Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months. 6 EQUITY Face Value (Rs.) 2.00 52 Week High/Low 174.40/73.85 M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 26273.71 EPS (Rs.) 0.00 P/E Ratio (times) 0.00 P/B Ratio (times) 0.49 Dividend Yield (%) 0.00 Stock Exchange BSE % OF SHARE HOLDING VALUE PARAMETERS HEXAWARE TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED CMP: 382.90 Upside: 15% Target Price: 441 % OF SHARE HOLDING VALUE PARAMETERS CANARA BANKLIMITED CMP: 159.55 Upside: 20% Target Price: 192 Investment Rationale Ÿ Global business of the bank rose at improved pace of 7% yoy at Rs 1640582 crore at end December 2020. Deposits grew 8% yoy to Rs 1573151 crore, while the advances growth also moved up 6% at Rs 667561 crore at end December 2020. The credit-deposit ratio of the bank rose to 68.6% from 68.4% a quarter ago and remained lower from 69.9% a year ago Ÿ NII increased 14.58% yoy to Rs 6081 crore in Q3FY2021. The bank has reported 3% decline in the interest earned at Rs 17206.34 crore, while interest expenses declined 10% to Rs 11125.46 crore. Ÿ Domestic advances of the bank increased 8% to Rs 644826 crore, domestic deposits moved up 9% to Rs 928325 crore at end December 2020. The bank has exhibited strong growth in retail advances at 9% to Rs 113835 crore, while MSME credit jumped 6% to Rs 113718 crore and agriculture loans improved 11% to Rs 150652 crore. The bank has also shown growth in corporate advance at 2% to Rs 289356 crore end December 2020. Ÿ The bank has improved asset quality with decline in fresh slippages of loans. Gross non-performing assets (NPAs) stood at Rs 49,788.61 crore as on 31 December 2020 as against Rs 53,437.92 crore as on 30 September 2020 and Rs 36,644.97 crore as on 31 December 2019. Gross non-performing assets (NPA) ratio came down to 7.46%, compared to 8.23% in the previous quarter. Similarly, net NPA ratio came down to 2.64% from 3.42% in the previous quarter. Ÿ The provision coverage ratio improved in the December quarter to 84.90%, compared to 70.97% in the year-ago period.CRARstoodat13.69%asatSep2020. Ÿ The bank has recorded net profit of Rs 696 crore for the merged entity of Canara Bank and Syndicate Bank for the quarter ended December 2020, showing 9% decline from comparable figure of Rs 764 crore for merged entity in Q3FY2020. The merged entity has posted strong 15% growth in the net interest income, while non-interest income has surged 63%. Risk • UnidentifiedAsset Slippages. (Non- Identified NPA’s) • Regulatory Provisioning on assets and Corporate Governance issue Valuation The management has guided for focus on NPA management with strategic actions on strengthening credit monitoring, contain fresh slippages and strengthen recovery efforts. The bank remains cautiously optimistic in terms of the asset quality outlook going ahead in the current year. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.192 in 8 to 10 months’ time frame on a target P/BVx of 0.53x and FY22BVPS (Book Value per Share) of Rs.361.33. P/B Chart Face Value (Rs.) 10.00 52 Week High/Low 114.75/74.00 M.Cap (Rs. in Cr.) 105451.24 EPS (Rs.) 12.96 P/E Ratio (times) 8.39 P/B Ratio (times) 0.86 Dividend Yield (%) 2.96 Stock Exchange BSE % OF SHARE HOLDING VALUE PARAMETERS HEXAWARE TECHNOLOGIES LIMITED CMP: 382.90 Upside: 15% Target Price: 441 VALUE PARAMETERS NTPC LIMITED CMP: 108.75 Upside: 15% Target Price: 125 ` in cr ACTUAL ESTIMATE FY Mar-20 FY Mar-21 FY Mar-22 Revenue 97700.39 102184.83 119858.51 Ebitda 28110.52 31366.96 35627.63 Ebit 18469.87 21791.60 25325.12 Net Income 10112.81 13139.75 14684.01 EPS 10.22 13.35 14.86 BVPS 114.78 122.61 132.32 RoE 9.15% 10.99% 11.69% FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE ` in cr ACTUAL ESTIMATE FY Mar-20 FY Mar-21 FY Mar-22 NII 13123.91 24624.94 26413.71 Ebit 9359.82 18109.16 18335.68 Pre-tax Profit -1755.57 2826.26 4337.15 Net Income -2235.72 1799.13 3238.64 EPS -26.50 11.59 18.72 BVPS 465.74 349.14 361.33 RoE -5.92% 4.18% 5.36% FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE Investment Rationale Ÿ NTPC is a Maharatna company operating in the power generation business. The principal business activity of the firm is electric power generation through coal based thermal power plants. It also engages in the business of generation of electricity from hydro and renewable energy sources. As of 31 December 2020, the GovernmentofIndiaheld51.10%stakeheldinNTPC. Ÿ The gross generation of NTPC in Q3 FY21 was 65.42 Billion units as against 61.21 Billion units during the corresponding period of previous year registering an increase of 6.87%. For 9M FY21 gross generation was 193.28 Billion units as against 191.35 Billion units during the corresponding period of previous year. Ÿ During Q3FY21, the company's Plant Load Factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation of coal-based projects was 64.31 per cent in the quarter under review as compared to 63.48 per cent in the same period a year ago. Ÿ The company has added 2800 mw of capacity and it is confident of adding 5074 mw of new capacity by the end of current fiscal and another about 6000 mw of capacity in the next fiscal. Ÿ The company has increased the dividend pay outs and recently concluded a buyback, a strong signal to its shareholders that the company will use opportunity to deploy cash intelligently. Ÿ NTPC has continued to reported strong operational numbers in Q3FY21 on the back of power demand recovery. On a consolidated basis, NTPC's net profit rose nearly 16%to Rs.3,876.36 crore for the December quarter, mainly due to higher revenues. Its consolidated net profit was at Rs.3,351.28 crore in the quarter ended on December 31, 2019. Risk Ÿ Unfavourable regulatory developments Ÿ Delay in execution Valuation The management of the company has provided robust guidance for growth in regulated equity, which makes optimistic about strong earnings growth for NTPC in the next couple of years. The management believes receivables of Rs. 16,720 crore currently from discoms should reduce with liquidity infusion into discoms under the power sector relief package. The decline in receivables from discoms would strengthen its balance sheet. Thus, it is expected that the stock will see a price target of Rs.125 in 8 to 10 months time frame on a current P/E of 8.39x and FY22 EPS of Rs.14.86. P/E Chart Foreign Ins tu ons Non Promoter Corp. Hold. Promoters Public & Others 4.62 11.96 1.97 69.33 12.11 Foreign Ins tu ons Non Promoter Corp. Hold. Promoters Public & Others 12.4 33.46 0.21 51.1 2.85 0.20 0.37 0.53 0.70 Close Price 0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 300.00 350.00 400.00 450.00 500.00 4-Mar-16 11-May-16 11-Jul-16 9-Sep-16 11-Nov-16 11-Jan-17 15-Mar-17 17-May-17 17-Jul-17 15-Sep-17 16-Nov-17 16-Jan-18 20-Mar-18 22-May-18 19-Jul-18 21-Sep-18 26-Nov-18 24-Jan-19 27-Mar-19 30-May-19 30-Jul-19 3-Oct-19 5-Dec-19 3-Feb-20 7-Apr-20 10-Jun-20 7-Aug-20 7-Oct-20 7-Dec-20 5-Feb-21 5 8 11 14 Close Price 0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 3-Mar-16 6-May-16 1-Jul-16 30-Aug-16 30-Oct-16 27-Dec-16 22-Feb-17 25-Apr-17 21-Jun-17 18-Aug-17 17-Oct-17 13-Dec-17 9-Feb-18 12-Apr-18 8-Jun-18 3-Aug-18 5-Oct-18 5-Dec-18 31-Jan-19 1-Apr-19 31-May-19 29-Jul-19 27-Sep-19 28-Nov-19 24-Jan-20 23-Mar-20 26-May-20 21-Jul-20 15-Sep-20 11-Nov-20 8-Jan-21
  • 7. Charts by Reliable software EQUITY Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months Disclaimer : The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results. The analyst not any of its affiliated companies not any of their, members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research. SOURCE: RELIABLE SOFTWARE 7 The stock closed at Rs 1633.90 on 05th March, 2021. It made a 52-week low at Rs 1065 on 19th March 2020 and a 52-week high of Rs. 1676 on 11th January, 2021. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 1495.65. As we can see on charts that stock is trading in higher highs and higher lows sort of rising wedge on weekly charts. Moreover, stock has consolidated in narrow range and formed a “Bullish Pennant” pattern, which is considered to be bullish. Last week, stock has given the breakout of same by registering gains over 3% and also has managed to close above the breakout levels. So buying momentum may continue for coming days. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 1610-1615 levels for the upside target of 1750-1780 levels with SLbelow 1560. The stock closed at Rs 903.55 on 05th March, 2021. It made a 52-week low of Rs 519.40 on 19th March, 2020 and a 52-week high of Rs. 954.50 on 08th January, 2021. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) of the stock on the daily chart is currently at Rs 850.25. Short term, medium term and long term bias are looking positive for the stock as it is trading in higher highs and higher lows on charts. Apart from this, stock is forming a “Continuation Triangle” on weekly chart which is bullish in nature. Last week, stock tried to give the breakout of same but could not hold high levels due to correction in broader indices but managed to close in green with over 4% gains. So, more upside is expected from current levels. Therefore, one can buy in the range of 890-895 levels for the upside target of 970-990 levels with SLbelow 860. SBI Life Insurance Company Limited (SBILIFE) Colgate Palmolive (India) Limited(COLPAL)
  • 8. DERIVATIVES WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET It was quite a volatile week for Indian markets as tug of war among bulls and bears kept markets on a roller coaster ride. Nifty indices, however, closed below the key psychological level of 15000 as profit booking in metal counter along with financials and pharma space kept markets under pressure in later part of the week. From the derivative front, put writers at 15000 strike are seen unwinding their positions while call writers added hefty open interest in 15000 & 15100 strikes. The Implied Volatility (IV) of calls closed at 23.58% while that for put options closed at 25.12%. The Nifty VIX for the week closed at 24.15%. PCR OI for the week closed at 1.74 indicates more puts writing than calls. For upcoming sessions, we believe that tug of war among bulls and bears will likely to keep markets on volatile ground and bias is likely to remain in favour of bears as far nifty is holding below 15100 levels. On downside, 14800 would act as immediate support for Nifty below which further selling pressure can mount which can drag Nifty towards 14600 levels as well. DIVISLAB BUY MAR 3450 PUT 81.50 SELL MAR 3350 PUT 46.00 Lot size: 200 BEP: 3414.50 Max. Profit: 12900.00 (64.50*200) Max. Loss: 7100.00 (35.50*200) OPTION STRATEGY FUTURE ULTRACEMCO BUY MAR 6850 CALL 208.20 SELL MAR 6950 CALL 171.55 Lot size: 200 BEP: 6886.65 Max. Profit: 12670.00 (63.35*200) Max. Loss: 7330.00 (36.65*200) DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES HINDUNILVR BUY MAR 2240 CALL 39.70 SELL MAR 2280 CALL 26.90 Lot size: 300 BEP: 2252.80 Max. Profit: 8160.00 (27.20*300) Max. Loss: 3840.00 (12.80*300) 8 PVR (MAR FUTURE) Buy: Above `1492 Target: `1548 Stop loss: `1454 APOLLOHOSP (MAR FUTURE) Sell: Below `2882 Target: `2832 Stop loss: `2910 BULLISH STRATEGY CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY) NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY) CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY) (MONTHLY) BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY) (MONTHLY) In lakhs In 10,000 In lakhs In 10,000 BEARISH STRATEGY SRTRANSFIN (MAR FUTURE) Sell: Below `1279 Target: `1243 Stop loss: `1298 4.20 5.19 5.03 4.00 6.28 5.13 3.05 4.43 16.47 15.26 21.98 16.58 20.98 19.05 24.73 32.44 24.52 17.07 15.43 19.74 4.08 5.30 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 12000 12500 13000 13500 14000 14500 14700 14800 15000 15500 16000 6.10 24.87 11.03 12.95 21.07 15.18 24.65 21.90 22.38 15.06 16.22 16.56 36.37 21.03 12.31 20.83 8.65 7.95 1.67 1.64 2.46 1.88 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 33000 34000 35000 35500 36000 36500 37000 37500 38000 39000 40000 -0.12 -0.20 0.07 -0.03 -0.03 -1.06 -1.37 -1.08 0.45 1.84 -1.40 1.17 0.07 -0.88 -0.67 0.65 -0.24 3.33 3.03 7.16 -0.02 0.27 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 12000 12500 13000 13500 14000 14500 14700 14800 15000 15500 16000 -1.12 1.12 - 4.36 1.39 -2.24 -1.66 -5.12 6.59 3.48 -1.93 0.67 1.92 6.28 2.08 3.27 10.69 2.75 0.76 0.49 0.11 -0.17 0.06 -6.00 -4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 33000 34000 35000 35500 36000 36500 37000 37500 38000 39000 40000 Call Put Call Put Call Put Call Put
  • 9. DERIVATIVES SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY) 04-Mar 03-Mar 02-Mar 01-Mar 26-Feb DISCOUNT/PREMIUM 25.50 53.25 39.05 36.20 49.30 COST OF CARRY% 0.69 0.71 0.69 0.67 0.66 PCR(OI) 1.74 1.86 1.75 1.71 1.66 PCR(VOL) 1.26 1.31 1.27 1.15 1.38 A/D RATIO(NIFTY 50) 0.32 5.13 4.44 15.33 AllDown A/DRATIO(ALLFOSTOCK)* 0.65 4.65 6.22 8.29 0.04 IMPLIED VOLATILITY 23.58 20.67 22.27 24.58 26.66 VIX 24.15 22.09 23.61 25.63 28.14 HISTORICALVOLATILITY 29.13 29.15 29.06 29.10 29.10 *All Future Stock SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY) Note: All equity derivative data as on 4th March, 2021 **The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support. # Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup # Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering #All Future Stock 04-Mar 03-Mar 02-Mar 01-Mar 26-Feb DISCOUNT/PREMIUM 77.25 123.70 35.15 28.55 66.75 COST OF CARRY% 0.70 0.71 0.65 0.76 0.73 PCR(OI) 0.98 1.04 0.88 0.90 0.80 PCR(VOL) 0.94 1.13 0.99 0.82 1.07 A/D RATIO(BANKNIFTY) 0.38 All up 2.67 2.67 All Down # A/D RATIO(ALLFO STOCK) 0.50 All up 3.00 3.00 All Down IMPLIED VOLATILITY 31.48 29.69 30.64 32.81 34.22 VIX 24.15 22.09 23.61 25.63 28.14 HISTORICALVOLATILITY 41.82 41.86 41.78 41.89 41.95 9 FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT FII’S ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURE In Cr. In Cr. Top 10 Long Buildup Top Short Buildup ZEEL 227.05 12.57% 42762000 22.84% FEDERALBNK 91.20 8.83% 92920000 19.47% UBL 1228.30 5.42% 1357300 17.80% CUMMINSIND 888.35 12.56% 1444800 16.55% ACC 1865.35 6.97% 3321000 15.67% IBULHSGFIN 244.10 11.33% 36673000 15.49% BAJAJ-AUTO 3897.65 1.98% 1968500 15.32% BEL 153.05 11.35% 33721200 14.53% NAME LTP %PriceChange Openinterest %OIChng PNB 42.50 5.59% 248304000 40.65% BANKBARODA 84.55 1.56% 141523200 30.99% NAME LTP %PriceChange Openinterest %OIChng GODREJPROP 1519.55 -0.49% 1720550 11.59% BHARTIARTL 542.95 -2.89% 104374188 9.58% MANAPPURAM 174.80 -0.96% 19254000 7.11% APOLLOHOSP 3060.10 -0.15% 1386500 4.41% SAIL 76.60 -0.58% 124811000 4.04% IDEA 11.05 -3.07% 889210000 2.87% -18 749 -160 443 382 -3806 1498 -1894 1372 -2265 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 19-Feb 22-Feb 23-Feb 24-Feb 25-Feb 26-Feb 01-Mar 02-Mar 03-Mar 04-Mar 2435 5383 3281 -1439 7947 -1398 2102 -1960 4435 9198 -4000 -2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 19-Feb 22-Feb 23-Feb 24-Feb 25-Feb 26-Feb 01-Mar 02-Mar 03-Mar 04-Mar
  • 10. 10 Turmeric futures (Apr) is expected to maintain its uptrend and trade range- bound within 8600-9600 levels. The increase in demand for turmeric during the COVID-19 pandemic has helped Indian farmers mitigate the effects of low output in recent months. The market is worried about the drastic fall in output, from 25 quintal per acre to 15 quintal, due to heavy rains. In Nizamabad around 50,000 acres has been given over to turmeric cultivation. But this year it shrank to 36,000 acres, as farmers are discouraged by poor returns for four consecutive years. The increase in consumption of the yellow spice as an antioxidant is said to be one of the factors that contributed to the considerable increase in exports and prices. On the spot, the market participants do not see rising prices being a deterrent as demand from local buyers, stockists or even exporters. They add that demand is here to stay until Holi and Ramadan and prices can easily drive higher.Jeera futures (Apr) is expected to trade range-bound within 13500-14500 with an upside bias.Traders see steady demand from local stockists, spice millers and exporters. They also note that the overall demand scenario is good. In Rajkot itself, jeera rates have gained Rs 85-95/20Kgs so far in the past week. Spot rates were steady at Unjhamandi, amid strong festive demand despite rising arrivals. Dhaniya futures (Apr) may witness some correction towards 6700- 6600 levels. New coriander prices continue to face pressure due to cautious buying by domestic traders. Market is also focusing on purchases being made by the South Indian millers and the exporters. Lackluster buying by stockists is weighing on the spice. SPICES Bullion prices headed for a third straight weekly decline after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell disappointed investors with his view on rising yields that pushed up the dollar and bond yields. Powell repeated his pledge to keep credit loose and said although the rise in yields was "notable", he did not consider it a "disorderly" move. Clearly, Powell wasn't dovish enough for markets overnight and, in some ways, green-lighted higher U.S. yields by saying he was comfortable with that. The U.S. 10-year yields held above 1.5%, while the dollar surged to three-month highs. Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-interest paying bullion. Markets are also starting to take into account that with the ramp-up in vaccines, another U.S. fiscal package and increasing inflation expectations, the Fed might consider tightening sooner than they expected. The WGC said that the amount of gold held by ETF's fell by 84.7 tonnes worth $4.6 billion in February. Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed ETF, SPDR Gold Trust GLD fell to the lowest since May. Silver fell to $25.21 an ounce and was down 5% for the week, its worst since late-November. On the technical front, the Gold price may continue to trade with bearish bias where short term support holds near 43770 breaks and sustain below it may extend the bearish rally till 42200 levels whereas short term resistance is seen near 45800. Ahead in this week, we may continue to witness huge volatility and gold may trade with bearish bias and range would be 42200-45800 levels whereas, Silver may trade in the range of 62000-67180 levels. Whereas on COMEX gold may trade in the range of $1630-$1720 levels and Silver may trade in the range of $23.60-$26.90 levels. BULLIONS Soybean futures(Apr) is expected to hold support near 4800 levels and maintain its uptrend as the overall fundamentals are string due to mismatch of demand-supply in the international market. The BuenosAires Grains Exchange said it could cut its harvest forecast for 2020/21 soy production in Argentina, the world's top soymeal exporter, if it does not rain sufficiently in key producing areas over the weeks ahead. Record U.S. soybean crushings and exports are already projected to shrink U.S. soybean stocks to a mere 9-1/2 day supply ahead of the next NorthAmerican harvest. The market participants would also be watching the U.S. Department of Agriculture will update its estimates on global supplies in a monthly report due on Tuesday. Soy oil futures (Apr) is looking bullish and can reach 1180-1190 levels, while CPO futures (Mar) may trade higher towards 1070-1080 levels taking bullish cues from the international market. On CBOT, US soybean oil has shown a break out and clocked a 3-year high. The USDA weekly export sales numbers are adding optimism among the market participants. The latest data showed that net sales of 5,500 MT for 2020/2021 were up 25 percent from the previous week and 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. The market participants will keep a close watch on the Malaysian Palm Oil Board February supply and demand data is scheduled to release on March 10.The trend of mustard futures (Apr) is bearish and going ahead we can see a downside of 5200-5100 levels. The deterrent factor is the rising arrivals as the farmers are bringing their crop finding prices very attractive. Also, mustard oil is witnessing downfall in prices due to heavy selling and limited demand. OIL AND OILSEEDS Crude Oil prices extending gains, after OPEC and its allies agreed not to increase supply in April as they await a more substantial recovery in demand amid the coronavirus pandemic. Oil rallied more than 4% hitting its highest in over a year, after OPEC and its allies agreed to keep production unchanged, reasoning that the demand recovery from the coronavirus pandemic was still fragile. The group’s leader Saudi Arabia said it would extend its voluntary oil output cut of 1 million barrels per day (bpd), and decide in coming months when to gradually phase it out. Russia was allowed to raise output by 130,000 bpd in April and Kazakhstan by another 20,000 bpd. Russia aside, the biggest winner of an OPEC+ rollover is the U.S. With such price levels, which are now boosted even more after the news of a possible rollover consensus, the U.S. can comfortably increase production, even from costly break-even projects. Ahead in this week crude price may witness huge volatility and continue to trade with bullish bias within the range of 4530-5040 levels, where buying near support would be the strategy. Natural gas prices whipsawed and tumbled over 2%, following a smaller than expected draw in natural gas inventories. The weather is expected to be colder than normal in the US’s western portion over the next 2-weeks but warmer than normal in the mid- west and the east coast. The calendar is now moving into the end of the withdrawal season, and prices will likely remain range-bound unless there is another disruption or a cold spell. Ahead in this week, we may expect prices may trade within a range where support is seen near 185 levels and resistance is seen near 210 levels. ENERGY COMPLEX Cotton futures (Apr) will probably take support around 21750 levels and the upside may get extended towards 22500 levels. The reasons are firstly, the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has revised upwards the global consumption projections at 24.5 million tonnes (mt) for 2020-21 against 22.8 mt in the previous year. Secondly, cotton exports from India are likely to rise 50 per cent this year to 75 lakh bales in the 2020-21 crop year beginning October with revival in global demand from China and Bangladesh in the last one month. Guar seed (Apr) may find support near 3800 levels and rise till 3950-4000 levels, while guar gum (Apr) is expected to trade with a positive bias in the range of 6000-6300 levels. These counters are taking support from bullish trend oil prices in the international market. Caution about the pandemic took the upper hand Thursday at a meeting of the OPEC oil cartel and allied countries, as they left most of their production cuts in place amid worry that coronavirus restrictions could still undermine recovering demand for crude. The U.S. contract, which had plunged below zero last year as the pandemic restrictions on businesses devastated demand for energy, jumped about 5% on the day to over $64 a barrel. Chana futures (Apr) is looking bullish for this week as it can test 5200-5250 levels and hence any dip can be considered as a buying opportunity. The sentiments are firm demand amid weak stocks of pulses, and bullish tone in dollar chana and strong demand ahead of Holi festival. On the spot, chana prices have soared amid increasing demand from Horeca segment and short fall in arrivals of fresh crops reportedly delayed in the markets of producing areas of Madhya Pradesh. OTHER COMMODITIES Base metals may trade with bearish bias as soaring US Treasury bond yields and dollar index may weigh on counter. Copper can move towards 660 levels and facing resistance near 715 levels. Signs of weakening demand in top consumer China and rising mine supply from top copper producers in South America are weighing on prices. China’s factory activity growth eased in February and missed market expectation. Copper imports in China are likely to ease as traders pick up cheaper domestic metal after price rise. The Democratic Republic of Congo produced 1.587 million tonnes in 2020, up 11.8% from 2019, the central bank’s statistics showed. Zinc may trade in the range of 205-220. Lead can trade in the range of 160-170 levels. Zinc treatment charges that miners pay to smelters to refine concentrate are expected to fall to $200 a tonne for 2021 from $300 a year ago due to tight mine supply. As per International Zinc Association, annual demand for zinc in batteries was only 600 tonnes in 2020 but that figure is projected to rise to 77,500 tonnes in 2030. Nickel may trade with sideways to bearish bias in the range of 1150-1250 levels. China's Tsingshan Holding Group, a nickel and stainless steel giant, will provide 100,000 tonnes of nickel matte to Huayou Cobalt and battery materials maker CNGR Advanced Material. One of the major nickel producing mine’s production at Russia which was on a halt due to water shortage, can restart production.Aluminum may trade in the range of 168-178 levels. The US Commerce Department issued final anti-dumping duties on common alloy aluminum sheet from 18 countries investigated, including up to 242.8% on imports from Germany. BASE METALS
  • 11. 11 TREND SHEET Closing as on 04.03.2021 EXCHANGE COMMODITY CONTRACT CLOSING DATE TREND TREND RATE TREND SUPPORT RESISTANCE CLOSING PRICE CHANGED CHANGED STOP/LOSS NCDEX SOYABEAN APR 5002.00 08.02.21 UP 4700.00 4830.00 - 4800.00 NCDEX JEERA APR 14010.00 15.02.21 UP 13750.00 13570.00 - 13500.00 NCDEX REF.SOY OIL APR 1163.10 10.02.21 SIDEWAYS 1100.00 1130.00 1230.00 - NCDEX RMSEED APR 5347.00 17.02.21 DOWN 5400.00 5670.00 - 5700.00 NCDEX CHANA APR 5012.00 21.01.21 UP 4480.00 4830.00 - 4800.00 NCDEX GUARSEED APR 3875.00 16.02.21 DOWN 3950.00 - 4045.00 4050.00 NCDEX COCUD APR 2266.00 02.02.21 UP 2100.00 2170.00 - 2150.00 NCDEX GUR MAR 1083.50 13.01.21 UP 1060.00 1052.00 - 1050.00 MCX CPO MAR 1050.00 08.02.21 UP 990.00 1030.00 - 1025.00 MCX RUBBER MAR 16309.00 17.02.21 UP 15500.00 15950.00 - 15900.00 MCX MENTHAOIL MAR 950.10 02.02.21 DOWN 976.00 - 977.00 980.00 MCX MCXBULLDEX MAR 14141.00 17.11.20 DOWN 15700.00 - 14450.00 14500.00 MCX SILVER MAY 65921.00 04.03.21 DOWN 66000.00 - 69350.00 69500.00 MCX GOLD APR 44541.00 18.11.20 DOWN 50100.00 - 45900.00 46000.00 MCX MCXMETLDEX MAR 13762.00 04.02.21 UP 13450.00 13400.00 - 13350.00 MCX COPPER MAR 672.85 04.02.21 UP 600.00 662.00 - 660.00 MCX LEAD MAR 163.40 02.02.21 UP 163.00 160.00 - 159.00 MCX ZINC MAR 214.90 09.02.21 UP 215.00 210.00 - 208.00 MCX NICKEL MAR 1162.90 04.03.21 SIDEWAYS 1200.00 1150.00 1260.00 - MCX ALUMINIUM MAR 171.80 04.02.21 UP 162.00 169.00 - 168.00 MCX CRUDE OIL MAR 4707.00 24.11.20 UP 3220.00 4530.00 - 4500.00 MCX NATURALGAS MAR 200.70 22.02.21 DOWN 210.00 - 218.00 220.00 TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS COPPER MCX (MAR) contract closed at Rs. 672.85 on 04th Mar’2021. The contract made its high of Rs. 737.00 on 25th Feb’2021 and a low of Rs. 585.70 on 02nd Jan’2021. The 18-day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs 677.74. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 56.507. One can sell near Rs. 688 for a target of Rs. 660 with the stop loss of Rs. 702. LEAD MCX (MAR) contract closed at Rs. 163.40 on 04th Mar’2021. The contract made its high of Rs. 174.70 on 25th Feb’2021 and a low of Rs. 157.70 on 22nd Jan’2021. The 18- day Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at Rs. 167.31. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 47.974. One can sell near Rs. 167 for a target of Rs. 160 with the stop loss of Rs. 171. CHANANCDEX (APR) contract was closed at Rs. 5012.00 on 04th Mar’2021. The contract made its high of Rs. 5090.00 on 30th Oct’2020 and a low of Rs. 4353.00 on 28th Dec’2020. The 18-day Exponential MovingAverage of the commodity is currently at Rs. 4815.26. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 74.326. One can buy near Rs. 5020 for a target of Rs. 5300 with the stop loss of Rs 4880.
  • 12. NEWS DIGEST CRB gradually moved higher, however the upside was capped by fall in base metals and bullion counter. The dollar was up but the safe-haven asset remained broadly weaker as Treasury yields continued to rise. This also restored calm to global markets and turned investors towards riskier assets. It was a bearish week for bullions. Gold futures declined, as gains in Treasury bond yields prompted prices to mark their lowest settlement in nearly nine months. Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields gained around 1.5%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding bullion. Gold ETF liquidation resumed in Feb, with outflows at 66t, the largest monthly selling since Dec'16. The bulk of selling came from North American funds. YTD, ETF investors liquidated nearly 44t, a sharp contrast to a net addition of 85t during the first two months of 2020.On MCX, it broke the psychological levels of 45000. Silver too traded weak. Nickel surprised the market with its sharp fall. It saw a fall of more than 10% on the news that Norilsk Nickel expects to stabilize flooding issues at two of its mines next week. Secondly, data showed that the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for downstream nickel industries, including stainless steel, electroplating, alloy and battery, stood at 46.93 in February, down 3.68 points from January. On SHFE, nickel contract open interests fell 1,341 lots to 101,473 lots. Rest of the metals also nosedived on moving up bond yield and dollar index. Oil prices rose after OPEC and its allies agreed not to increase supply in April as they await a more solid recovery in demand from the coronavirus pandemic, overshadowed a U.S. government report showing a humongous build in crude stocks for last to last week. However, the rally looked tired from the higher side. Oil seeds and edible oil futures saw correction from the upside on weak international market. Soyabean moved down tracking bearish sentiments coming from the international market. CBOT US soybean futures edged lower, consolidating after strong gains as traders weighed adverse crop weather in SouthAmerica against forecasts for record Brazilian output and signs of a lull in Chinese demand. Steep fall was noticed in spot Mustard seed, oil and oil cake prices in producing states including Rajasthan. Market sentiments dampened as the oil seed arrival reached to 7 lakh bags in across the country. Heavy arrival and slower demand caused for decline in prices. CPO futures saw correction after a five-week nonstop rally. Cotton futures traded sideways as a dip in equity and grain markets spilled over to the natural fiber. Guar was weak on poor demand in churi and korma. 12 WEEKLY COMMENTARY COMMODITY UNIT 25.02.21 04.03.21 DIFFERENCE QTY. QTY. CASTOR SEED MT 3405 2903 -502 CHANA MT 0 332 332 COCUD MT 76628 73943 -2685 GUARGUM MT 16142 16146 4 GUARSEED MT 28488 28337 -151 GUR MT 0 10 10 JEERA MT 39 147 108 SOYBEAN MT 31548 30691 -857 TURMERIC MT 811 841 30 WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX) Ÿ The Fed chief reiterated that the central bank would be "patient" before changing policy even as it saw inflation pick up in what it expects would be a transitory fashion. Ÿ OPEC and its oil-producing allies said the group would keep production largely steady through April. Saudi Arabia also said that it would extend its one million barrels per day voluntary production cut intoApril. Ÿ Malaysia's palm oil inventories at the end of February likely rose for a second straight month to touch 1.42 million tonnes, as production picked up for the first time in five months, a Reuters survey showed. Ÿ Export sales of soybeans for 2021/22 sit at a 7-year high and are progressing at a solid pace. Total sales are 4.86 mmt (179 mln bu). Ÿ The Democratic Republic of Congo produced 85,855 tonnes of cobalt in 2020, up 10% from 2019, the central bank said, with copper production also jumping 11.8% year-on-year. Ÿ International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) has revised upwards the global consumption projections at 24.5 million tonnes (mt) for 2020-21 against 22.8 mt in the previous year. Ÿ The Indian government announced import quota of 4 lakh tonnes for urad for 2021-22 as local prices of whole urad (black matpe) have been rising. Ÿ Norilsk Nickel expects to stabilize flooding issues at two of its mines this week. Ÿ Gold ETF liquidation resumed in Feb, with outflows at 66t, the largest monthly selling since Dec'16. Ÿ The Caixin/Markit services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 51.5, the lowest since April, from 52.0 in January but remained above the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction on a monthly basis. NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change) COMMODITY UNIT 24.02.21 03.03.21 DIFFERENCE QTY. QTY. ALUMINIUM MT 673.002 376.652 -296.35 COPPER MT 900.381 987.794 87.41 GOLD KGS 324 324 0.00 GOLD MINI KGS 36.4 102.1 65.70 GOLD GUINEA KGS 5.544 5.256 -0.29 LEAD MT 153.223 152.1854 -1.04 NICKEL MT 998.6875 921.4405 -77.25 SILVER (30 KG Bar) KGS 268845.6199 248346.0156 -20499.60 ZINC MT 2731.267 3032.602 301.34 WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX) MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change) 2.24% 1.32% 0.60% 0.05% -14.97% -4.28% -4.11% -3.66% -2.61% -16% -14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% CRUDE OIL COTTON KAPAS RUBBER NICKEL COPPER SILVER MICRO LEAD GOLD 7.97% 5.05% 2.75% 1.83% 1.22% -3.76% -3.41% -2.06% -1.69% -1.57% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% TURMERIC CHANA JEERA MAIZE STEEL LONG BARLEY RM SEED SOY OIL CPO GUARGUM
  • 13. COMMODITY WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES) Spot Prices (% Change) Castor seed 13 COMMODITY STOCK POSITION STOCK POSITION DIFFERENCE 25.02.21 04.03.21 ALUMINIUM 1332525 1304075 -28450 COPPER 78575 74100 -4475 NICKEL 251058 261534 10476 LEAD 94700 94525 -175 ZINC 270475 269200 -1275 PRICES OF COMMODITIES IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $) COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT 26.02.21 04.03.21 CHANGE% ALUMINIUM LME CASH 2202.50 2169.00 -1.52 COPPER LME CASH 9172.50 8786.50 -4.21 LEAD LME CASH 2107.00 2014.50 -4.39 NICKEL LME CASH 18607.00 16144.00 -13.24 ZINC LME CASH 2821.00 2734.50 -3.07 GOLD COMEX APR 1728.80 1700.70 -1.63 SILVER COMEX MAY 26.40 25.43 -3.67 LIGHTCRUDEOIL NYMEX MAR 61.50 63.83 3.79 NATURALGAS NYMEX APR 2.77 2.75 -0.90 INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES Commodity Exchange Contract Unit 26.02.21 04.03.21 Difference (%) Soybean CBOT MAY Dollars Per Bushel 14.04 14.10 0.43 Soy oil CBOT MAY Cents per Pound 49.94 50.71 1.54 CPO BMD MAY MYR per MT 3742.00 3731.00 -0.29 Cotton ICE MAY Cents per Pound 89.00 87.34 -1.87 Castor is a non-edible oilseed crop; basically a cash crop, with average 46% oil recovery. Castor oil is the largest vegetable oil exported out of India. India is the biggest exporter of castor oil holding about 80% share of the international trade in this commodity followed by China & Brazil. Castor oil is primarily used in manufacturing plastics, lubricants, cosmetics, candles, and painting material. Castor oil and its derivatives are also used in many medical formulations. Supply Scenario • Castor seed production in India is estimated to be 19.02 lakh tonnes in 2020-21 against last year’s estimate of 19.53 lakh tonnes. • Total area under castor seed cultivation in India for the year 2020-21 is estimated tobe 8,26,120 hectares as per the government’s estimates against 9,73,190 hectares in 2019-20, which has declined by 15% compared to the previous year. • India’s average castor seed productivity for the year 2020-21 is estimated to be 2303Kg/Ha as compared to 2007 Kg/Ha last year. It is based on farmer’s response about their yield expectation on present crop conditions. • Total area under castor in Gujarat for the year 2020-21 is taken to be 6,38,000 hectaresas per the government’s estimates, against last year’s estimate of 7,40,600 hectares,whichhasdeclinedbyabout14%ascomparedtothepreviousyear. • Total castor seed production in Gujarat is estimated to be 16.29 lakh tons in 2020-21compared to 16.59 lakh tons last year. The fall in acreages is compensated by an increase in expected yield. • Total acreage under castor in Rajasthan for the year 2020-21 is taken to be 1,25,700 hectares as per the government’s estimates against last year’s estimate of 1,54,240hectares,whichhasdeclinedby18.5%comparedtothepreviousseason. • Total castor seed production in the state is estimated to be 2.36 lakh tons in 2020-21, a decline by 4% from last years’estimate of 2.46 lakh tons. Demand Scenario • The country exports about 90 percent of the oil globally with China, the world's largest importer of castor oil, accounts for 70% of exports from India. • According to the Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA), India’s castor oil exports are estimated to have increased to a four-year high of 6.5 lakh tonnesin 2020 with China buying 50 percent of it to build inventory. • According to SEA data, India’s castor oil exports were 5.45 lakh tonnes in 2019, 5.97 lakh tonnes in 2018 and 6.28 lakh tonnes in 2017. Castor oil shipments have annually been fetching about ₹5,500 crore. • While castor oil exports increased last year, castor meal shipments dropped to 3.16 lakh tonnes duringApril-December last year compared with 4.79 lakh tonnes the previous year. Meal exports showed a rising trend in December, though. • The Netherlands, France, the US and Japan are other buyers of castor oil from India, though all of them have purchased below one lakh tonnes only. • Lower prices may improve domestic consumption of castor oil. Lower inventory of castor oil with USA& Europe may attract demand also. -12.25 -2.42 -2.19 -1.49 -1.24 -0.32 -0.21 0.00 0.02 0.73 1.60 2.56 4.13 5.25 5.96 -15.00 -10.00 -5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 MUSTARD (JAIPUR) GUAR GUM (JODHPUR) CRUDE PALM OIL (KANDLA) GUAR SEED (JODHPUR) BARLEY (JAIPUR) WHEAT (DELHI) SOYABEAN (INDORE) GUR (MUZAFFARNGR) COTTON SEED OIL CAKE (AKOLA) COTTON (KADI) JEERA (UNJHA) PEPPER MALABAR GAR (KOCHI) CORIANDER (KOTA) CHANA (DELHI) TURMERIC (NIZAMABAD) 22.95 19.64 17.27 18.7 17.52 14.21 13.96 10.82 19.52 19.02 0 5 10 15 20 25 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 Castor seed Produc on in India (in lakh ton) Source: SEA
  • 14. CURRENCY Currency Table Currency Pair Open High Low Close USD/INR 73.9800 74.0950 72.8125 72.9875 EUR/INR 89.6600 89.6600 87.8700 87.9625 GBP/INR 103.2000 103.4300 101.6500 101.7000 JPY/INR 69.4000 69.5200 68.0225 68.0525 News Flows of last week (* NSE Currency future, Source: Reliable, Open: Monday 9.00 AM IST, Close: Thursday (5.00 PM IST) 05th MAR Beijing targets 6% GDP growth after reining in coronavirus 04th MAR US suspends tariffs on UK exports inAirbus-Boeing trade dispute 04nd MAR Powell sends dovish message that leaves bond market disappointed 02nd MAR Rishi Sunak delivers spend now, tax later Budget to kickstart UK economy 02nd MAR Budget to give £20bn extension to UK Covid support until September 02nd MAR Covid vaccines show few serious side-effects after millions of jabs 02nd MAR Australia’s treasurer warns global stimulus threatens financial stability 01st MAR Growth in UK household savings raises hopes of recovery boost 01st MAR Italy and Spain enjoy manufacturing bounce back as demand rises Market Stance Indian rupee ended the choppiest week after last week turmoil. A sudden rise in US bond yields notably 10 year yield surpassed 1.55% for the first time in a year after Jay Powell, Fed’s Chair vowed to keep monetary policy steady even as the economy improves and inflation begins to rise supported dollar versus rupee and other currencies as well. Accordingly Powell said the central bank expected to be “patient” in withdrawing support for the recovery, given that the labour market remained far from the central bank’s goal of full employment and had made little progress in recent months. From the majors, the UK budget announcement indicated to focus on stimulus for the economy, and not address the record budget deficit for another two years. The UK pound likely to remains within a tight 1.3850- 1.40 trading range in for next week. However the euro is getting weaker in the wake of stronger dollar. Additionally EZ retail sales were down 5.9% in January, much worse than both the previous months +1.8% and expectations of -1.4% which triggered the eurusd lower. 14 EUR/INR (MAR) contract closed at 87.9625 on 04-Mar-2021. The contract made its high of 89.6600 on 01-Mar-2021 and a low of 87.8700 on 04-Mar-2021 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential MovingAverage of the EUR/INR is currently at 88.6838. On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 41.06. One can sell at 87.80 for a target of 86.80 with the stop loss of 88.30. EUR/INR USD/INR (MAR) contract closed at 72.9875 on 04-Mar-2021. The contract made its high of 74.0950 on 01-Mar-2021 and a low of 72.8125 on 04-Mar-2021 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential MovingAverage of the USD/INR is currently at 73.2724. On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 44.33. One can buy at 72.90 for the target of 73.90 with the stop loss of 72.40. USD/INR Technical Recommendation GBP/INR (MAR) contract closed at 101.7000 on 04-Mar-2021. The contract made its high of 103.4300 on 01-Mar-2021 and a low of 101.6500 on 04-Mar-2021 (Weekly Basis).The21-dayExponentialMovingAverageoftheGBP/INRiscurrentlyat101.7200. On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 51.83. One can buy at 101.50 for a target of 102.50 with the stop loss of 101.00. GBP/INR JPY/INR (MAR) contract closed at 68.0525 on 04-Mar-2021. The contract made its high of 69.5200 on 01-Mar-2021 and a low of 68.0225 on 04-Mar-2021 (Weekly Basis). The 21-day Exponential MovingAverage of the JPY/INR is currently at 69.2711. On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 31.50. One can sell at 68.10 for a target of 67.10 with the stop loss of 68.60. JPY/INR Economic gauge for the next week Date Currency Event Previous 10-Mar USD CPI m/m 0.30% 10-Mar USD Core CPI m/m 0.00% 10-Mar USD Crude Oil Inventories 10-Mar USD 10-y Bond Auction 1.16|2.4 11-Mar EUR Main Refinancing Rate 0.00% 11-Mar EUR Monetary Policy Statement 11-Mar EUR ECB Press Conference 12-Mar INR Inflation Rate YoY FEB 4.06% 12-Mar INR Industrial Production YoY JAN 1%
  • 15. IPO IPO IPO IPO 15 About the Company Incorporated in 2008, Easy Trip Planners Ltd is the second largest online travel agency in India in terms of gross revenue. Easy Trip offers a range of online traveling services through its website and Ease My Trip android and iOS mobile app. As of November 2019, the firm has served customers with more than 400 domestic and international airlines, and 1,096,400 hotels. As of March 2019, it had 49,494 registered travel agents across major cities of India Strength One of the leading online travel agencies in India with a customer focused approach, including the option of no-convenience fee: As of December 31, 2020, the company provided its customers with access to more than 400 international and domestic airlines, more than 1,096,400 hotels in India and international jurisdictions, almost all the railway stations in India as well as bus tickets and taxi rentals for major cities in India. It has been providing customers with the option of no-convenience fee, such that customers are not required to pay any service fee in instances where there are no alternate discounts or promotion coupon being availed. Consistent track record of financial and operational performance with lean and cost efficient operations: The company experienced significant revenue growth from sale of airline tickets between Fiscal 2018 and Fiscal 2019, of 35.22% and 35% for GoAir and SpiceJet, respectively. It believes that the consistent growth in its business is attributable to its technology driven operations and low operational costs resulting in comparatively higher operating margins. Wide distribution network supported by a hybrid platform: The Company’s three distinct distribution channels, namely B2C, B2E and B2B2C channels provide it with a diversified customer base and wide distribution network. These channels enable the company to provide end-to-end travel solutions for passengers traveling domestically, as well as traveling to and from international destinations. Well-recognized brand with a targeted marketing strategy: The company believes that its leading market position and operational history have led to recognition of the ‘EaseMyTrip’ brand in India, enabling it to target new customers and provide better leverage when contracting with airlines and hotel suppliers. Strategies Capitalize on travel industry growth opportunities: The company believes that there are significant opportunities for the company to further expand its customer base and, at the same time, increase its market share in India. Focus on expanding hotel and holiday packages, and railway ticketing operations:As of December 31, 2020, it has partnered with 23APIs for hotels, which has increased its hotel suppliers network and also provided access to more international hotels on a real time basis. Accordingly, in order to capitalize on such growth opportunities, it intends to focus on direct tie-ups with hotels and hotel suppliers by complementing its existing technology platforms, which it believes would help it reduce its costs associated with confirmation of reservations. Leverage its existing travel agent network in Tier II and Tier III cities and focus on corporate business to grow its business: The company believes a considerable number of customers in India, especially from Tier II and Tier III cities, still utilize and are expected to continue to utilize the services of traditional travel agents. It intends to strengthen its presence among corporates by leveraging its existing travel agent network and also by integrating its travel software with its corporate customers IT systems to act a ‘one-stop’solution for all of their travel requirements. Risk factor • The company is dependent on its airline ticketing business, which generates a significant percentage of its revenues and is derived from a small number of airline suppliers in India. • The travel industry for India and India-related travel is intensely competitive, and it may not be able to effectively compete in the future. Outlook Easy Trip Planners Ltd. (ETPL) is well known for its online tour web portal EaseMyTrip.com. and EaseMyTrip.in. According to the management, it follows the most advanced and latest technology including mobile applications for its operations that helps it for better cost controls and higher yields. The company is operating an asset-light model of business with negligible borrowings. Investors may consider investing in this IPO with a long term perspective. EASY TRIP PLANNERS LIMITED Issue Highlights Industry Travelandtourisim Offer for sale (Shares) 27,272,727 Fresh Issue (Shares) 0 Total Offer 27,272,727 Issue Size (Rs. Cr.) 507-510 Price Band (Rs.) 186-187 Offer Date 8-Mar-21 Close Date 10-Mar-21 Face Value 2 Lot Size 80 Issue Composition Total Issue for Sale 27,272,727 QIB 20,454,545 NIB 4,090,909 Retail 2,727,273 In shares Valuation Considering the P/E valuation on the upper price band of Rs.187, EPS and P/E of estimated annualised FY2021 are Rs.3.75 and 49.89 multiple respectively and at a lower price band of Rs. 186, P/E multiple is 49.62. Looking at the P/B ratio on the upper price band of Rs.187, book value and P/B of estimated annualised FY21 are Rs. 13.10and 14.28multiple respectively and at a lower price band of Rs. 186 P/B multiple is 214.20. No change in pre and post issue EPS and Book Value as the company is not making fresh issue of capital. Book Running Lead Manager Ÿ Axis Capital Limited Ÿ JM Financial Limited Name of the registrar Ÿ KFin Technologies Private Limited Objects of the Issue The objects of the Offer are to achieve the benefits of listing the Equity Shares on the Stock Exchanges and for the sale of up to [●] Equity Shares by the Promoter Selling Shareholders aggregating up to Rs.5,100 million. (2.5/5)
  • 16. FIXED DEPOSIT MONITOR 16 FIXED DEPOSIT COMPANIES 12M 18M 24M 36M 48M 60M 84M PERIOD ADDITIONAL RATE OF INTEREST (%) MIN. (`) INVESTMENT NBFC COMPANY - NAME S.NO `20000/- BUT `40000/- IN MONTHLY OPTION HDFC LTD- SPECIAL DEPOSIT FOR INDIVIDUAL (UPTO `2 CR.) 0.25% FOR SENIOR CITIZEN UPTO `2 CR. 33M=5.95 66M=6.40 99M=6.45 - - 33M=5.80 66M=6.25 99M=6.30 - - - 39M= 6.05% 45M= 6.20% 65M= 6.45% - - ICICI HOME FINANCE (UPTO `1.99 CR.) 6.75 - 7.25 7.35 - - - - J K LAKSHMI CEMENT LTD `100000/- EMPLOYEES & SHAREHOLDERS - MAX. 0.50% 0.50% ADD. INTEREST TO SR. CITIZEN, LIC HOUSING FINANCE LTD. (UPTO `20 CR.) 5.65 5.65 5.65 5.75 - - 5.75 - `20000/- 0.25% FOR SENIOR CITIZEN 7.50 - 7.70 8.15 - 8.20 8.40 - SHRIRAM TRANSPORT FINANCE-UNNATI SCHEME `5000/- 0.25% EXTRA FOR RENEWALS 0.40% FOR SENIOR CITIZEN, 7.50 - 7.70 8.15 - 8.20 8.40 - SHRIRAM CITY UNION SCHEME `5000/- 0.40% FOR SENIOR CITIZEN, 0.25% EXTRA FOR RENEWALS (UPTO `2 CR.) HDFC LTD- REGULAR DEPOSIT FOR INDIVIDUAL 0.25% FOR SENIOR CITIZEN UPTO `2 CR. 5.70 - 5.75 5.95 - 5.95 6.20 - 6.00 - 6.00 6.00 - 5.75 5.75 - KTDFC (Kerala Transport) `10000/- HDFC LTD- PREMIUM DEPOSIT FOR TRUST (UPTO `2 CR.) - 15M=5.70 - - 30M=5.75 - - 0.25% EXTRA FOR SR. CITIZEN 4.30 - 5.55 5.95 - 6.20 6.25 6.45 `5000/- M&M FINANCIAL SERVICES LTD (UPTO `1 CRORE) 0.25% FOR SENIOR CITIZEN FOR RENEWAL 0.25% EXTRA FOR SR. CITIZEN, 0.10% EXTRA BAJAJ FINANCE LTD.INDIVIDUAL & HUF (UPTO `5 CR.) `25000/- 6.15 - 6.60 7.00 - 7.00 7.00 - (>`2 CR TO `5 CR) HDFC LTD- REGULAR FOR INDIVIDUAL & TRUST 0.25% FOR SENIOR CITIZEN UPTO `2 CR. 15M=5.75 22M=5.85 30M=5.85 44M=6.10 `10000/- HDFC LTD- REGULAR DEPOSIT FOR TRUST (UPTO `2 CR.) - 5.60 - 5.65 5.85 - 5.85 6.10 - HDFC LTD- PREMIUM DEPOSIT FOR INDIVIDUAL (UPTO `2 CR.) 0.25% FOR SENIOR CITIZEN UPTO `2 CR. 5.70 6.00 6.20 6.30 44M=6.45 6.45 6.45 - ICICI HOME FINANCE (UPTO `1.99 CR.) * Interest Rate may be revised by company from time to time. Please confirm Interest rates before submitting the application. * For Application of Rs.50 Lac & above, Contact to Head Office. * Email us at fd@smcindiaonline.com 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 `10000/- PNB HOUSING FINANCE LTD.(UPTO `5 CR.) 0.25% EXTRA FOR SR. CITIZEN UPTO `1 CRORE 5.90 - 6.15 6.60 - 6.60 6.70 6.70 15 5.45 - 5.55 5.85 - 5.85 5.95 - HDFC LTD- SPECIAL DEPOSIT FOR TRUST (UPTO `2 CR.) 0.25% EXTRA FOR SR. CITIZEN `10000/- 0.25% EXTRA FOR SR. CITIZEN
  • 17.
  • 18. Note: Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option. The above mentioned data is on the basis of 04/03/2021 Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 5.5% MUTUAL FUND Performance Charts TAX FUND EQUITY (Diversified) INCOME FUND SHORT TERM FUND Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month returns BALANCED Returns (%) Risk Average Yield till Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM Since Std. Sharpe 1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y Maturity (Years) Maturity (`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev. Franklin India STIP - Growth 3937.47 31-Jan-2002 5375.51 15.74 14.30 15.57 20.05 -1.01 2.80 7.44 48.68 -0.12 N.A 10.44 Aditya Birla Sun Life Medium Term Plan - R - G 24.02 25-Mar-2009 1944.12 19.29 14.29 23.45 11.03 8.58 3.46 7.61 56.01 -0.04 4.56 7.22 HDFC Medium Term Debt Fund - Growth 43.04 06-Feb-2002 1961.84 2.62 -2.30 -0.31 6.05 6.48 7.99 7.95 22.00 0.12 4.12 6.69 Aditya Birla Sun Life Short Term F - R - G 36.34 09-May-2003 7864.28 3.33 -0.52 1.02 5.18 9.26 8.39 7.50 19.49 0.15 2.57 5.31 Kotak Credit Risk Fund - Reg - Growth 23.20 11-May-2010 1862.47 8.83 2.32 3.93 4.76 4.42 7.05 8.09 21.97 0.06 2.44 7.29 ICICI Pru Banking & PSU Debt F - R - G 24.92 01-Jan-2010 14443.60 5.89 2.79 2.21 4.72 7.16 8.14 8.51 19.87 0.15 2.66 4.82 ICICI Pru Short Term Fund - Growth 45.64 25-Oct-2001 21821.40 2.63 0.36 1.29 4.69 8.12 8.44 8.15 17.47 0.19 2.67 5.11 Annualised Annualised Returns (%) Risk Average Yield till Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM Since Std. Sharpe 1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y Maturity (Years) Maturity (`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev. HDFC Credit Risk Debt Fund - R - Growth 18.10 25-Mar-2014 6402.16 4.96 2.68 4.78 9.48 8.62 8.45 8.91 20.31 0.18 2.50 8.05 Axis Corporate Debt Fund - Reg - G 13.11 13-Jul-2017 2643.51 3.86 1.81 1.91 4.62 8.58 8.04 7.70 29.68 0.07 1.70 4.79 Aditya Birla Sun Life Credit Risk F - R - G 15.23 17-Apr-2015 1672.07 14.18 9.21 8.94 8.96 8.50 6.07 7.41 27.16 0.01 2.12 7.46 IDFC Corporate Bond Fund - Reg - G 14.91 12-Jan-2016 20704.00 4.38 -2.08 -0.49 3.46 8.40 8.26 8.07 24.22 0.11 2.98 5.56 ICICI Pru All Seasons Bond Fund - Growth 27.80 20-Jan-2010 4915.51 4.92 0.99 2.42 4.91 8.26 9.31 9.62 24.01 0.18 3.63 6.02 HDFC Corporate Bond Fund - Growth 24.74 29-Jun-2010 24728.50 5.04 -1.56 -1.55 3.75 8.24 9.03 8.85 23.00 0.16 4.36 5.35 Sundaram Corporate Bond Fund - R - G 31.03 30-Dec-2004 1257.69 5.82 -0.49 2.90 3.59 7.81 9.00 7.24 21.77 0.19 2.22 4.83 Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%) Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT & (`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER ICICI Pru Equity & Debt Fund - Growth 175.48 03-Nov-1999 16248.60 18.86 33.80 33.42 11.12 14.36 2.58 0.72 62.20 7.07 5.98 24.75 Kotak Equity Hybrid Fund - Growth 34.29 05-Nov-2014 1248.05 14.33 32.95 32.98 12.26 11.01 2.52 0.75 47.76 19.30 12.36 20.58 UTI Hybrid Equity Fund - Growth 211.32 20-Jan-1995 3743.95 14.65 29.31 32.78 7.59 14.95 2.42 0.72 51.02 13.25 8.10 27.63 HDFC Hybrid Equity Fund - Growth 69.22 06-Apr-2005 16919.30 14.96 31.06 31.65 8.05 12.92 2.49 0.75 59.55 5.56 8.08 26.80 HDFC Hybrid Equity F - R - G (Adjusted-NAV) 69.22 11-Sep-2000 16919.30 14.96 31.06 31.65 10.18 15.70 2.49 0.75 59.55 5.56 8.08 26.80 Edelweiss Balanced Advantage F - G 32.06 20-Aug-2009 1856.90 9.68 21.58 30.75 12.78 10.62 1.74 0.51 58.38 8.76 2.53 30.34 Franklin India Equity Hybrid Fund - G 156.22 10-Dec-1999 1330.56 12.82 30.93 29.88 11.08 13.81 2.41 0.71 62.00 9.65 4.04 24.31 Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%) Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Beta Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT & (`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER IDFC Tax Advantage (ELSS) Fund - R - G 77.50 26-Dec-2008 2434.42 23.02 44.75 47.37 10.02 18.28 3.41 0.99 0.06 50.62 21.07 26.00 2.31 Mirae Asset Tax Saver Fund - R - G 26.12 28-Dec-2015 4868.21 17.90 38.84 44.42 16.93 20.34 3.20 0.97 0.13 69.64 17.88 8.32 4.16 BOI AXA Tax Advantage Fund - Eco - G 85.83 25-Feb-2009 339.75 16.08 35.53 42.91 13.73 19.57 2.76 0.79 0.24 51.72 30.51 12.33 5.44 BOI AXA Tax Advantage Fund - Reg - G 80.30 25-Feb-2009 339.75 15.91 35.12 42.02 12.93 18.91 2.76 0.79 0.23 51.72 30.51 12.33 5.44 Canara Robeco Equity Tax Saver F - G 97.02 02-Feb-2009 1309.14 17.71 38.22 40.02 17.97 20.68 3.01 0.89 0.15 70.80 22.85 3.84 2.51 PGIM India Long Term Equity Fund - R - G 19.07 11-Dec-2015 329.70 16.49 35.83 38.29 11.15 13.13 2.96 0.89 0.04 82.46 5.66 10.15 1.73 SBI Long Term Equity Fund - Growth 188.02 31-Mar-1993 8009.17 16.19 32.83 38.19 9.50 15.67 2.96 0.87 0.02 67.53 20.30 11.54 0.63 Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%) Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Beta Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT & (`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER IDFC Emerging Businesses Fund - R - G 16.76 25-Feb-2020 726.18 19.63 38.86 69.46 N.A 65.75 2.83 0.54 0.60 8.32 11.06 71.32 9.30 PGIM India Midcap Opp. Fund - R - G 32.08 02-Dec-2013 440.88 23.77 49.00 67.17 17.34 17.42 3.18 0.86 0.31 8.25 64.82 23.03 3.90 SBI Contra Fund - Growth 157.04 05-Jul-1999 1461.39 23.04 50.57 60.76 9.92 18.51 3.12 0.87 0.12 48.37 15.29 30.64 5.70 Kotak Small Cap Fund - Reg - Growth 119.60 24-Feb-2005 2035.74 25.60 55.63 59.94 14.51 16.74 3.35 0.85 0.28 4.84 27.01 66.17 1.98 DSP Natural Resources & New Energy F - R - G 43.49 25-Apr-2008 348.89 21.40 46.06 59.33 6.24 12.11 3.77 0.92 0.09 54.14 18.30 0.44 27.12 Nippon India Small Cap Fund - Growth 60.39 16-Sep-2010 10009.80 26.15 46.80 57.19 9.44 18.74 3.46 0.91 0.15 7.87 21.20 69.37 1.57 Edelweiss Small Cap Fund - Reg - G 17.97 07-Feb-2019 563.16 25.48 48.26 56.21 N.A 32.72 3.24 0.83 0.26 N.A 32.07 66.49 1.44 18 *Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
  • 19. Mr. Ajay Garg (CEO & Director, SMC Group) during the inauguration of SMC's New Branch at Chandigarh on 5th February, 2021. Mr. Ajay Garg (CEO & Director, SMC Group) and Mrs. Reema Garg (Director & CHRO, SMC Group) during the inauguration of SMC's New Branch at Varanasi on 1st March, 2021.