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V. Andreea CHIRITESCU
Eastern Illinois University
N. GREGORY MANKIW
PRINCIPLES OF
ECONOMICS
Eight Edition
Saving, Investment, and
the Financial System
CHAPTER
26
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as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
1
Look for the answers to these questions:
• What are the main types of financial
institutions in the U.S. economy, and what is
their function?
• What are the three kinds of saving?
• What’s the difference between saving and
investment?
• How does the financial system coordinate
saving and investment?
• How do government policies affect saving,
investment, and the interest rate?
2
© 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use
as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
Financial Institutions
• Financial system
–Group of institutions in the economy that
help match the saving of one person with
the investment of another
• Financial institutions
–Institutions through which savers can
directly provide funds to borrowers
–Financial markets
–Financial intermediaries
3
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as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
Financial Markets
• Financial markets
–Savers can directly provide funds to
borrowers
–The bond market:
• A bond is a certificate of indebtedness
–The stock market:
• A stock is a claim to partial ownership in a
firm
4
© 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use
as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
Financial Intermediaries
• Financial intermediaries
–Institutions through which savers can
indirectly provide funds to borrowers
–Banks
–Mutual funds: institutions that sell shares
to the public and use the proceeds to buy
portfolios of stocks and bonds
5
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as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
The Financial Crisis of 2008–2009
A financial crisis led to a deep recession in the U.S. and
around the world. A few unemployment rates:
3
4
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9
10
11
12
01-2007
04-2007
07-2007
10-2007
01-2008
04-2008
07-2008
10-2008
01-2009
04-2009
07-2009
10-2009
01-2010
04-2010
07-2010
10-2010
01-2011
04-2011
07-2011
10-2011
01-2012
04-2012
07-2012
10-2012
01-2013
04-2013
07-2013
10-2013
USA
France
U.K.
Canada
Sweden
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as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
6
FYI: Elements of Financial Crises
• Large decline in some asset prices
– 2008–2009: Housing prices fell 30%.
• Insolvencies at financial institutions
– 2008–2009: Banks and other institutions failed
when many homeowners stopped paying their
mortgages.
• Decline in confidence in financial institutions
– 2008–2009: Customers with uninsured deposits
began pulling their funds out of financial
institutions
7
© 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use
as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
FYI: Elements of Financial Crises
• Credit crunch
– 2008–2009: Borrowers unable to get loans
because troubled lenders not confident in
borrowers’ credit-worthiness.
• Economic downturn
– 2008–2009: Failing financial institutions and a
fall in investment caused GDP to fall and
unemployment to rise.
• Vicious circle
– 2008–2009: The downturn reduced profits and
asset values, which worsened the crisis.
8
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as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
Accounting Identities
• Gross domestic product (GDP, Y)
–Total income = Total expenditure
Y = C + I + G + NX
• Y = gross domestic product, GDP
• C = consumption
• I = investment
• G = government purchases
• NX = net exports
9
© 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use
as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
Accounting Identities
• Assume closed economy: NX = 0
• Y = C + I + G, so I = Y – C - G
• National saving (saving), S
• Total income in the economy that remains
after paying for consumption and
government purchases
• By definition: S = Y – C – G
• It follows: Saving (S) = Investment (I)
for a closed economy
10
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as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
Accounting Identities
–For T = taxes minus transfer payments
S = Y – C – G can be rewritten as:
S = (Y – T – C) + (T – G)
• Private saving, Y – T – C
–Income that households have left after
paying for taxes and consumption
• Public saving, T – G
–Tax revenue that the government has left
after paying for its spending
11
© 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use
as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
Accounting Identities
• Budget surplus: T – G > 0
–Excess of tax revenue over government
spending = public saving (T-G)
• Budget deficit: T – G < 0
–Shortfall of tax revenue from government
spending = – (public saving) = G – T
12
© 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use
as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
Active Learning 1 A. Calculations
Suppose GDP equals $10 trillion, consumption
equals $6.5 trillion, the government spends $2
trillion and has a budget deficit of $300 billion.
• Find public saving, net taxes, private saving,
national saving, and investment.
13
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as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
Active Learning 1 A. Answers
Given: Y = 10.0, C = 6.5, G = 2.0, G – T = 0.3
(all in trillions)
• Public saving = T – G = – 0.3
• Net taxes: T = G – 0.3 = 1.7
• Private saving = Y–T–C = 10 – 1.7 – 6.5 = 1.8
• National saving S=Y–C–G = 10 – 6.5 – 2 = 1.5
• Investment = national saving = 1.5
14
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as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
Active Learning 1 B. How a tax cut affects saving
Use the numbers from the preceding exercise,
but suppose now that the government cuts
taxes by $200 billion.
In each of the following two scenarios, determine
what happens to public saving, private saving,
national saving, and investment.
1. Consumers save the full proceeds of the
tax cut.
2. Consumers save 1/4 of the tax cut and spend
the other 3/4.
15
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as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
Active Learning 1 B. Answers
In both scenarios, public saving falls by
$200 billion, and the budget deficit rises
from $300 billion to $500 billion.
1. If consumers save the full $200 billion,
national saving is unchanged, so investment
is unchanged.
2. If consumers save $50 billion and spend
$150 billion, then national saving and
investment each fall by $150 billion.
16
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as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
Active Learning 1 C. Discussion questions
The two scenarios from this exercise were:
1. Consumers save the full proceeds of the
tax cut.
2. Consumers save 1/4 of the tax cut and spend
the other 3/4.
• Which of these two scenarios do you think is
more realistic?
• Why is this question important?
17
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as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
The Meaning of Saving and Investment
• Private saving
–Income remaining after households pay
their taxes and pay for consumption.
–Examples of what households do with
saving:
• Buy corporate bonds or equities
• Purchase a certificate of deposit at the bank
• Buy shares of a mutual fund
• Let accumulate in saving or checking
accounts
18
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as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
The Meaning of Saving and Investment
• Investment
–Is the purchase of new capital
–Examples of investment:
• General Motors spends $250 million to build
a new factory in Flint, Michigan.
• You buy $5000 worth of computer equipment
for your business.
• Your parents spend $300,000 to have a new
house built.
Investment is NOT the purchase of stocks and bonds!
19
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as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
The Market for Loanable Funds
• Loanable funds market
–A supply–demand model of the financial
system
–Helps us understand:
• How the financial system coordinates
saving & investment.
• How government policies and other factors
affect saving, investment, the interest rate.
20
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as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
The Market for Loanable Funds
• Assume: only one financial market
–All savers deposit their saving in this
market.
–All borrowers take out loans from this
market.
–There is one interest rate, which is both
the return to saving and the cost of
borrowing.
21
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as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
The Market for Loanable Funds
• The supply of loanable funds comes from
saving:
–Households with extra income can loan it
out and earn interest.
–Public saving
• If positive, adds to national saving and the
supply of loanable funds.
• If negative, it reduces national saving and the
supply of loanable funds.
22
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as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
The Slope of the Supply Curve
An increase in the
interest rate makes
saving more
attractive, which
increases the
quantity of loanable
funds supplied.
Interest
Rate
Loanable Funds
($billions)
Supply
60
3%
80
6%
© 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use
as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
23
The Market for Loanable Funds
• The demand for loanable funds comes
from investment:
–Firms borrow the funds they need to pay
for new equipment, factories, etc.
–Households borrow the funds they need to
purchase new houses.
24
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as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
The Slope of the Demand Curve
A fall in the interest
rate reduces the cost
of borrowing, which
increases the quantity
of loanable funds
demanded.
Interest
Rate
Loanable Funds
($billions)
Demand
50
7%
4%
80
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as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
25
Equilibrium
The interest rate adjusts
to equate supply and
demand.
The equilibrium quantity
of loanable funds equals
equilibrium investment
and equilibrium saving.
Interest
Rate
Loanable Funds
($billions)
Demand
Supply
5%
60
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as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
26
Policy 1: Saving Incentives
Tax incentives for
saving increase the
supply of loanable
funds
…which reduces the
equilibrium interest
rate
and increases the
equilibrium quantity of
loanable funds
Interest
Rate
Loanable Funds
($billions)
D1
S1
5%
60
S2
4%
70
© 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use
as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
27
Policy 2: Investment Incentives
An investment tax
credit increases the
demand for loanable
funds
…which raises the
equilibrium interest
rate
and increases the
equilibrium quantity
of loanable funds
Interest
Rate
Loanable Funds
($billions)
D1
S1
5%
60
6%
70
D2
© 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use
as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
28
Active Learning 2 Budget deficits
Use the loanable funds model to analyze
the effects of a government budget deficit:
• Draw the diagram showing the initial equilibrium.
• Determine which curve shifts when the
government runs a budget deficit.
• Draw the new curve on your diagram.
• What happens to the equilibrium values of the
interest rate and investment?
29
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as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
Active Learning 2 Answers
A budget deficit
reduces national
saving and the
supply of loanable
funds
…which increases
the equilibrium
interest rate
and decreases the
equilibrium quantity
of loanable funds
and investment.
30
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as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
Interest
Rate
Loanable Funds
($billions)
D1
S1
5%
60
S2
6%
50
Budget Deficits, Crowding Out,
and Long-Run Growth
• Our analysis:
– Increase in budget deficit causes fall in investment
– The government borrows to finance its deficit,
leaving less funds available for investment:
crowding out
• Investment is important for long-run economic
growth
• Hence, budget deficits reduce the economy’s
growth rate and future standard of living.
31
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ASK THE EXPERTS
32
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management system for classroom use.
Fiscal Policy and Saving
“Sustained tax and spending policies that
boost consumption in ways that reduce the
saving rate are likely to lower long-run living
standards.”
The U.S. Government Debt
• The government finances deficits by
borrowing (selling government bonds).
– Persistent deficits lead to a rising government
debt.
• The ratio of government debt to GDP
– Useful measure of the government’s
indebtedness relative to its ability to raise tax
revenue.
– Historically, the debt-GDP ratio usually rises
during wartime and falls during peacetime—until
the early 1980s.
33
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as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
U.S. Government Debt as a Percentage of GDP
1790–2012
34
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as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
Conclusion
Markets are usually a good way to organize
economic activity
• Financial markets: governed by the forces of
supply and demand
– Help allocate the economy’s scarce resources
to their most efficient uses.
– Link the present to the future
• Savers: convert current income into future
purchasing power
• Borrowers: acquire capital to produce goods
and services in the future
35
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as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
Summary
• The U.S. financial system is made up of many
types of financial institutions, like the stock and
bond markets, banks, and mutual funds.
• National saving equals private saving plus
public saving.
• In a closed economy, national saving equals
investment. The financial system makes this
happen.
36
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as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
management system for classroom use.
Summary
• The supply of loanable funds comes from
saving. The demand for funds comes from
investment. The interest rate adjusts to balance
supply and demand in the loanable funds
market.
• A government budget deficit is negative public
saving, so it reduces national saving, the supply
of funds available to finance investment.
• When a budget deficit crowds out investment,
it reduces the growth of productivity and GDP.
37
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as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning
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Premium_Ch_26_Saving,_Investment,_and_the_Financial_System.pptx

  • 1. Premium PowerPoint Slides by: V. Andreea CHIRITESCU Eastern Illinois University N. GREGORY MANKIW PRINCIPLES OF ECONOMICS Eight Edition Saving, Investment, and the Financial System CHAPTER 26 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 1
  • 2. Look for the answers to these questions: • What are the main types of financial institutions in the U.S. economy, and what is their function? • What are the three kinds of saving? • What’s the difference between saving and investment? • How does the financial system coordinate saving and investment? • How do government policies affect saving, investment, and the interest rate? 2 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
  • 3. Financial Institutions • Financial system –Group of institutions in the economy that help match the saving of one person with the investment of another • Financial institutions –Institutions through which savers can directly provide funds to borrowers –Financial markets –Financial intermediaries 3 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
  • 4. Financial Markets • Financial markets –Savers can directly provide funds to borrowers –The bond market: • A bond is a certificate of indebtedness –The stock market: • A stock is a claim to partial ownership in a firm 4 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
  • 5. Financial Intermediaries • Financial intermediaries –Institutions through which savers can indirectly provide funds to borrowers –Banks –Mutual funds: institutions that sell shares to the public and use the proceeds to buy portfolios of stocks and bonds 5 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
  • 6. The Financial Crisis of 2008–2009 A financial crisis led to a deep recession in the U.S. and around the world. A few unemployment rates: 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 01-2007 04-2007 07-2007 10-2007 01-2008 04-2008 07-2008 10-2008 01-2009 04-2009 07-2009 10-2009 01-2010 04-2010 07-2010 10-2010 01-2011 04-2011 07-2011 10-2011 01-2012 04-2012 07-2012 10-2012 01-2013 04-2013 07-2013 10-2013 USA France U.K. Canada Sweden © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 6
  • 7. FYI: Elements of Financial Crises • Large decline in some asset prices – 2008–2009: Housing prices fell 30%. • Insolvencies at financial institutions – 2008–2009: Banks and other institutions failed when many homeowners stopped paying their mortgages. • Decline in confidence in financial institutions – 2008–2009: Customers with uninsured deposits began pulling their funds out of financial institutions 7 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
  • 8. FYI: Elements of Financial Crises • Credit crunch – 2008–2009: Borrowers unable to get loans because troubled lenders not confident in borrowers’ credit-worthiness. • Economic downturn – 2008–2009: Failing financial institutions and a fall in investment caused GDP to fall and unemployment to rise. • Vicious circle – 2008–2009: The downturn reduced profits and asset values, which worsened the crisis. 8 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
  • 9. Accounting Identities • Gross domestic product (GDP, Y) –Total income = Total expenditure Y = C + I + G + NX • Y = gross domestic product, GDP • C = consumption • I = investment • G = government purchases • NX = net exports 9 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
  • 10. Accounting Identities • Assume closed economy: NX = 0 • Y = C + I + G, so I = Y – C - G • National saving (saving), S • Total income in the economy that remains after paying for consumption and government purchases • By definition: S = Y – C – G • It follows: Saving (S) = Investment (I) for a closed economy 10 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
  • 11. Accounting Identities –For T = taxes minus transfer payments S = Y – C – G can be rewritten as: S = (Y – T – C) + (T – G) • Private saving, Y – T – C –Income that households have left after paying for taxes and consumption • Public saving, T – G –Tax revenue that the government has left after paying for its spending 11 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
  • 12. Accounting Identities • Budget surplus: T – G > 0 –Excess of tax revenue over government spending = public saving (T-G) • Budget deficit: T – G < 0 –Shortfall of tax revenue from government spending = – (public saving) = G – T 12 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
  • 13. Active Learning 1 A. Calculations Suppose GDP equals $10 trillion, consumption equals $6.5 trillion, the government spends $2 trillion and has a budget deficit of $300 billion. • Find public saving, net taxes, private saving, national saving, and investment. 13 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
  • 14. Active Learning 1 A. Answers Given: Y = 10.0, C = 6.5, G = 2.0, G – T = 0.3 (all in trillions) • Public saving = T – G = – 0.3 • Net taxes: T = G – 0.3 = 1.7 • Private saving = Y–T–C = 10 – 1.7 – 6.5 = 1.8 • National saving S=Y–C–G = 10 – 6.5 – 2 = 1.5 • Investment = national saving = 1.5 14 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
  • 15. Active Learning 1 B. How a tax cut affects saving Use the numbers from the preceding exercise, but suppose now that the government cuts taxes by $200 billion. In each of the following two scenarios, determine what happens to public saving, private saving, national saving, and investment. 1. Consumers save the full proceeds of the tax cut. 2. Consumers save 1/4 of the tax cut and spend the other 3/4. 15 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
  • 16. Active Learning 1 B. Answers In both scenarios, public saving falls by $200 billion, and the budget deficit rises from $300 billion to $500 billion. 1. If consumers save the full $200 billion, national saving is unchanged, so investment is unchanged. 2. If consumers save $50 billion and spend $150 billion, then national saving and investment each fall by $150 billion. 16 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
  • 17. Active Learning 1 C. Discussion questions The two scenarios from this exercise were: 1. Consumers save the full proceeds of the tax cut. 2. Consumers save 1/4 of the tax cut and spend the other 3/4. • Which of these two scenarios do you think is more realistic? • Why is this question important? 17 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
  • 18. The Meaning of Saving and Investment • Private saving –Income remaining after households pay their taxes and pay for consumption. –Examples of what households do with saving: • Buy corporate bonds or equities • Purchase a certificate of deposit at the bank • Buy shares of a mutual fund • Let accumulate in saving or checking accounts 18 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
  • 19. The Meaning of Saving and Investment • Investment –Is the purchase of new capital –Examples of investment: • General Motors spends $250 million to build a new factory in Flint, Michigan. • You buy $5000 worth of computer equipment for your business. • Your parents spend $300,000 to have a new house built. Investment is NOT the purchase of stocks and bonds! 19 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
  • 20. The Market for Loanable Funds • Loanable funds market –A supply–demand model of the financial system –Helps us understand: • How the financial system coordinates saving & investment. • How government policies and other factors affect saving, investment, the interest rate. 20 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
  • 21. The Market for Loanable Funds • Assume: only one financial market –All savers deposit their saving in this market. –All borrowers take out loans from this market. –There is one interest rate, which is both the return to saving and the cost of borrowing. 21 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
  • 22. The Market for Loanable Funds • The supply of loanable funds comes from saving: –Households with extra income can loan it out and earn interest. –Public saving • If positive, adds to national saving and the supply of loanable funds. • If negative, it reduces national saving and the supply of loanable funds. 22 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
  • 23. The Slope of the Supply Curve An increase in the interest rate makes saving more attractive, which increases the quantity of loanable funds supplied. Interest Rate Loanable Funds ($billions) Supply 60 3% 80 6% © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 23
  • 24. The Market for Loanable Funds • The demand for loanable funds comes from investment: –Firms borrow the funds they need to pay for new equipment, factories, etc. –Households borrow the funds they need to purchase new houses. 24 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
  • 25. The Slope of the Demand Curve A fall in the interest rate reduces the cost of borrowing, which increases the quantity of loanable funds demanded. Interest Rate Loanable Funds ($billions) Demand 50 7% 4% 80 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 25
  • 26. Equilibrium The interest rate adjusts to equate supply and demand. The equilibrium quantity of loanable funds equals equilibrium investment and equilibrium saving. Interest Rate Loanable Funds ($billions) Demand Supply 5% 60 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 26
  • 27. Policy 1: Saving Incentives Tax incentives for saving increase the supply of loanable funds …which reduces the equilibrium interest rate and increases the equilibrium quantity of loanable funds Interest Rate Loanable Funds ($billions) D1 S1 5% 60 S2 4% 70 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 27
  • 28. Policy 2: Investment Incentives An investment tax credit increases the demand for loanable funds …which raises the equilibrium interest rate and increases the equilibrium quantity of loanable funds Interest Rate Loanable Funds ($billions) D1 S1 5% 60 6% 70 D2 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. 28
  • 29. Active Learning 2 Budget deficits Use the loanable funds model to analyze the effects of a government budget deficit: • Draw the diagram showing the initial equilibrium. • Determine which curve shifts when the government runs a budget deficit. • Draw the new curve on your diagram. • What happens to the equilibrium values of the interest rate and investment? 29 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
  • 30. Active Learning 2 Answers A budget deficit reduces national saving and the supply of loanable funds …which increases the equilibrium interest rate and decreases the equilibrium quantity of loanable funds and investment. 30 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. Interest Rate Loanable Funds ($billions) D1 S1 5% 60 S2 6% 50
  • 31. Budget Deficits, Crowding Out, and Long-Run Growth • Our analysis: – Increase in budget deficit causes fall in investment – The government borrows to finance its deficit, leaving less funds available for investment: crowding out • Investment is important for long-run economic growth • Hence, budget deficits reduce the economy’s growth rate and future standard of living. 31 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
  • 32. ASK THE EXPERTS 32 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use. Fiscal Policy and Saving “Sustained tax and spending policies that boost consumption in ways that reduce the saving rate are likely to lower long-run living standards.”
  • 33. The U.S. Government Debt • The government finances deficits by borrowing (selling government bonds). – Persistent deficits lead to a rising government debt. • The ratio of government debt to GDP – Useful measure of the government’s indebtedness relative to its ability to raise tax revenue. – Historically, the debt-GDP ratio usually rises during wartime and falls during peacetime—until the early 1980s. 33 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
  • 34. U.S. Government Debt as a Percentage of GDP 1790–2012 34 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
  • 35. Conclusion Markets are usually a good way to organize economic activity • Financial markets: governed by the forces of supply and demand – Help allocate the economy’s scarce resources to their most efficient uses. – Link the present to the future • Savers: convert current income into future purchasing power • Borrowers: acquire capital to produce goods and services in the future 35 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
  • 36. Summary • The U.S. financial system is made up of many types of financial institutions, like the stock and bond markets, banks, and mutual funds. • National saving equals private saving plus public saving. • In a closed economy, national saving equals investment. The financial system makes this happen. 36 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.
  • 37. Summary • The supply of loanable funds comes from saving. The demand for funds comes from investment. The interest rate adjusts to balance supply and demand in the loanable funds market. • A government budget deficit is negative public saving, so it reduces national saving, the supply of funds available to finance investment. • When a budget deficit crowds out investment, it reduces the growth of productivity and GDP. 37 © 2018 Cengage Learning®. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.

Editor's Notes

  1. Source of all unemployment figures: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2
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  7. If the last statement on this slide troubles you, here is my defense: While the budget deficit does not affect the steady state growth rate of neoclassical growth theory, it affects the economy’s growth rate temporarily (long enough to reduce the steady-state level of income per capita). And in some endogenous growth models, budget deficits can affect the steady state growth rate. If you are still troubled, you can modify the statement so that it is more consistent with neoclassical growth theory. (Perhaps “Investment is important for long-run living standards.”)
  8. The details below come from the case study ‘The history of U.S. government debt.’ Note that in recent years, debt/GDP is higher than at any time besides WW2, including all other wars. From the beginning of this long time series until about 1980, the data show a clear pattern: the debt-GDP ratio jumps up during wartime, and comes back down during peacetime. (Also, the Great Depression caused revenues to plummet, and led to a rise in the debt ratio during the 1930s.) There are two reasons why many economists believe it is appropriate to allow the debt ratio to climb during wars. First, it allows the government to keep tax rates smooth over time. Wars are expensive, and financing them solely with tax increases would be disruptive to the economy and would cause a substantial reduction in economic efficiency. Second, debt finance shifts part of the cost of the war to future generations. This is appropriate, one could argue, because future generations benefit when the government goes to war to defend the nation against foreign aggressors. The pattern visible throughout most of history breaks down around 1980, when the debt ratio started climbing despite the lack of a major war. This was due to the Reagan tax cuts, and growth in federal entitlement outlays during the 1980s. From 1992 to 2000, the longest expansion on record plus a strong stock market in 1995–2000 led to a surge in revenues, the first budget surpluses in many years, and a declining debt-GDP ratio. From 2001–2005, the ratio to start climbing again due to the Bush tax cuts, the 2001 recession, and the wars (Afghanistan, Iraq, and the War on Terror). The ratio shoots up dramatically in 2008–2012 due to the financial crisis and recession. (increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio from 39% in 2008 to 70% in 2012. ) After 2012, as the economy recovered, the budget deficits shrank, and the increases in the debt-to-GDP ratio became smaller Sources: Same as text