EU, is the largest trading partner for India. This paper aims to identify India’s emergence on paper industry with a focus on its foreign trade with EU and emergence of coastal shipping in India based on reviewing and harmonizing literatures, EUROSTAT, and Indian DGSCIS statistics. The first part aims to clarify and analyze the trade trend between the EU28 and India by looking at their foreign trade situation and intra-trade between each other. The next step is to analyze its growth in different dimensions over the years 2008 and 2012 using market share, SWOT and snapshot analysis with an emphasis on paper industry (HS 49). These years carry its significance as the economic crisis shook the lives which still has its bright stains. Secondly, the concentration is on the coastal trade of the Indian ports where the case study on Gujarat and Orissa ports are worked out. After looking at this picture, we conclude the paper with few recommendations and findings which could support feasibility study for Port optimization at these ports and may act as a key to enlighten investment opportunities for the concerned stakeholders in the supply chain perspective. Key words: India, EU, Trade, Indian coastal shipping, Snapshot, SWOT

1. EU-INDIA TRADE: AN ANALYSIS
OF PAPER INDUSTRY AND INDIAN
COASTAL SHIPPING
Prospects and trends of the Indian
paper industry focused on HS-49 in
export perspective to EU28 nations
and the future of the Coastal
shipping by understanding its
underlying trade movements
Promoter : Prof. Dr. Evrard
Claessens, UA
Co-Promoter : Mr. Nico Berx, PAI
20.08.201
5
By Mohamed Asik Rahman

2. RESEARCH
QUESTIONS
1. Growth analysis of European Union – India trade
between years 2008 and 2012 ?
2. What is the HS-49 trade between EU and India
and prospects connected to the Indian paper
industry ?
3. Can the coastal shipping trade in India grow to
become a fruitful reality ?
Major Data Sources:
1. EUROSTAT
2. DGCI&S, Min of Commerce and
Industry, India
3. Indian Ports Association, IPA
Methodologies involved:
1. Snapshot analysis
2. SWOT analysis
3. Year over Year comparisons
(YOY)

3. 2007 2008 2012 2013
-20.00%
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
2007 2008 2012 2013
EU_India trade pattern
Imports Exports CAD (m$) Import growth Export growth
GROWTH ANALYSIS OF EU AND
INDIA
1. Growth of Indian exports to EU – 2007 to 2013 –
CAD changed due to manufac. and chemicals
2. Bet 2008-12, Netherlands, Belgium and France
fetched more market share
Textile
product
s
Mineral
s
Chemic
al or
allied
industri
es
Machin
eries
and
applianc
es
Base
metals
and
articles
Machin
eries
and
applianc
es
Pearls
and
preciou
s metals
Chemic
al or
allied
industri
es
Base
metals
and
articles
Transpo
rt
equipm
ents
Values in b$ 6.492 5.21 5.055 3.904 3.002 10.202 9.157 3.362 3.171 2.692
Percentage 17.60% 14.20% 13.70% 10.60% 8.20% 28.40% 25.50% 9.40% 8.80% 7.50%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Exports
Imports
Top Gateway
Countries
Amounts in
Billion euros
of 2008
Contribution
percentage to
total EU trade
in 2008
Amounts in
Billion euros of
2012
Contribution
percentage to
total EU
trade in 2012
EU-28 29.632 100% 37.527 100%
United Kingdom 5.204 17.59% 6.935 18.53%
Germany 4.807 16.25% 6.082 16.24%
Belgium 3.77 9.88% 4.239 (jumps to 3rd
) 11.34%
Italy 3.429 12.73% 3.749 9.99%
France 2.921 11.58% 3.968 (jumps to 4th
) 10.58%
Total 68.03% 66.68%
Greece 0.541 1.83% 0.286 0.77%
Netherlands 2.722 9.12% 4.874 12.90%

4. HS 49 SNAPSHOT AND SWOT ANALYSIS FOR PAPER
INDUSTRY
• India - 2.6% global production
• EU – 3.2 Billion euros printed books
importer
• Lucky girl – Indian printed books
STRENGTHS: OPPORTUNITY:
1. Must-enter market – 6% growth YOY–widespread
mills demographically
1. Packaging industry – 22 to 25% growth annually
2. Degradedforest lands aroundmills are providedfor
pulping economic activity under agro-forestry initiative –
40,000 hectares in 2011
2. Upstreammarket demandfor tissues, coatedandmedical
grade papers growing
3. Large pool of skilledandunskilledlabors
3. 100% FDIallowedfor entire value chain of the paper
sector
4. Growing middle class andin education sector – 74%
literacy rate in 2011
4. Relaxation of import duties for recycledpaper
5. Growth in publications – 130,000 printing presses and
CAGR 16.2% since 1989
5. Just 2.1% exports of total production
6. Traditional export regions – Middle east, Africa and
South Asia
6.A lucky girl snapshot – Competitive price (PRC) is lowfor
EUmarket – paperboards, specialty andpackaging products
have goodscope on exports to EU
WEAKNESS: THREATS:
1. Per capita consumption remains low– US at 770 and
EUat 363 lbs. in 2010
1. IPMA says 21% of fiber sources comes fromagro-
residues leading to poor quality of finishedgoods
2. Less fiber andwoodavailability due to declining forest
lands
2. Reduction of paper consumption in western countries
leading higher prices for imports
3. Lack of recycling industries andinfrastructure pales
in comparison with developednations
3. High profile disputes in landacquisitions andunclear
guidelines – e.g. TATA, POSCO shifting to Gujarat in 2010
4. Large gapin Supply to local demand
4. Obsolete or outdatedtechnologies – less than 25 mills
produce 50,000 tons
5. Exports restrictedto books andprintedmaterials for
quality-sensitive markets like EUandNA 5. China – 33% market share vs 2% of India to EU
CHINA (PEOPLE'S
REPUBLIC OF),
33%
UNITED STATES,
32%
HONG KONG, 8%
CANADA, 3%
SINGAPORE, 2%
INDIA, 2%
JAPAN, 1%
MALAYSIA, 1%
Israel, 1%
UNITED ARAB
EMIRATES, 0%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
IMPORT Market share of EU-HS 49, 2012

5. DGCI&S DATA RESULTS 2012-14
WEST
BENGAL
ANDHR
A
PRADES
H
TAMIL
NADU
KERALA
KARNAT
AKA
GOA
MAHAR
ASHTRA
GUJARA
T
ORISSA
PONDIC
HERRY
ANDAM
AN-
NICOBA
R IS
LACADI
VE-
MINICO
Y IS
OUTWARD 2848.10 825.40 398.25 1089.37 230.79 6.83 1521.11 4113.65 440.48 5.08 13.33 .00
INWARD 1390.16 5670.63 1684.29 163.97 1386.03 .00 249.05 .00 117.78 .00 153.81 676.98
.00
1000.00
2000.00
3000.00
4000.00
5000.00
6000.00
Inward and Ouward movements (In Mil. $) 2012-13
OUTWARD INWARD
WEST
BENGAL
ANDHRA
PRADESH
TAMIL
NADU
KERALA
KARNATA
KA
GOA
MAHARA
SHTRA
GUJARAT ORISSA
PONDICH
ERRY
ANDAMA
N-
NICOBAR
IS
LACADIVE
-MINICOY
IS
OUTWARD 663.97 403.65 1380.16 1094.60 1170.00 2.38 1932.86 1831.27 142.86 .00 14.13 .00
INWARD 8.57 4464.60 1506.03 167.30 994.44 .00 262.06 .00 .00 .00 405.56 827.30
.00
500.00
1000.00
1500.00
2000.00
2500.00
3000.00
3500.00
4000.00
4500.00
5000.00
Inward and Ouward movements (In Mil. $) 2013-14
OUTWARD INWARD
• AP is major importer, with products mineral fuels and
salt from Gujarat and Maharashtra, WB leading nuclear
reactors supplier.
• TN in 2013-14 found balance in trade by trading
minerals with neighboring states like AP, and

6. CASE STUDY ON COASTAL SHIPPING IN GUJARAT AND ORISSA BET FY12 AND FY13
1. Iron ores and slag coastal trade grew at 1093% but iron and steel products fell – shutdown of ‘Electrotherm’ and 10
small mills in Maharashtra bringing anti-steel sentiments with increase of input costs, shrunk demand, ban on iron ore
mines in Goa and Karnataka
2. Plastic exports from Orissa to West Bengal dropped due to frequent shutdowns in Haldia Petrochemicals limited.

7. CONCLUSIONS
1. Bright future for Coastal shipping – MOS roadmap for 2020 and GST from
2016
2. Coastal shipping is environmental friendly and key for economic growth
3. Indian paper industry – bullish market for investors
4. More room for spurring growth and EOS benefits - BTIA agreements
enhances vertical trading and intra-industry flows
REFERENCES
1. Claessens E, 2007. European Integration: Global Trade & Transportation. In: Antwerp: Universitas, ITMMA and the Jean Monnet centre for
excellence, pp. 13-37.
2. Claessens E, 2007. European Integration: Global Trade & Transportation. In: Antwerp: Universitas, ITMMA and the Jean Monnet centre for
excellence, pp. 13-37.
3. Dr. Revathy et al, 2., 2012. Globalization and India's foreign trade introduction. International journal of advanced research in management
and social sciences, 1(ISSN 2278-6236), p.
https://www.academia.edu/5450799/GLOBALIZATION_AND_INDIAS_FOREIGN_TRADE_INTRODUCTION
4. Gasiorek M, H. P. R. S. R. J. S. A. M., 2007. A Qualitative Analysis of a Potential Free Trade Agreement Between the European Union and
India. European Union, Brussels. Centre for the analysis of regional integration at sussex, A(http://www.cuts-citee.org/pdf/EU-
IndiaStudyAnnex2May01.pdf), p. 30.
5. Ministry of Shipping, G. o. I., 2015. Vision Document for Coastal Shipping, Tourism and Regional development. [Online]
Available at: http://shipmin.nic.in/showfile.php?lid=1959

8. Years
Inwardstotal Outwardstotal Totaltraffic Unloaded Loaded Totaltraffic
2012-13 30.68 30.68 61.36 85.63 76.36 161.99
Majorports 53.9 53.1 107
Nonmajorports 31.73 23.26 54.99
2013-14 20.08 20.08 40.16 93.66 67.7 161.36
Majorports 59.77 54.89 114.66
Nonmajorports 33.89 12.81 46.7
2012-13 0 7.34 7.34 22.09 27.1 49.1
Majorports 4.3 9.1 13.4
Nonmajorports 17.7 17.9 35.6
2013-14 0 4.01 4.01 23.1 13.79 36.9
Majorports 3.25 7.11 10.36
Nonmajorports 19.8 6.6 26.4
2012-13 2.48 6.65 9.13 2.2 17.38 19.6
Majorports 2.2 15.3 17.5
Nonmajorports 0 2.04 2.04
2013-14 0 4.59 4.59 2.1 23.2 25.3
Majorports 2.1 19.98 22.08
Nonmajorports 0 3.22 3.22
Source: Basic port statistics - 2013-14,MOSIndia andIPAIndianPorts Profile 2013-14 / Figures are inMilliontons (MT)
Coastaltraffic DGCIS data matrix Coastaltraffic IPA data
Gujarat
Orissa
APPENDICES   

9. 1. India – rich and complex culture and bigger than
sum of its parts
2. GDP outpacing China, yet under 2% share of
global exports
3. Services growth ratcheting up but manufacturing
at an upswing
4. Reformer-in-Chief and his pet projects
5. India 2013 :
Top export destinations - USA, UAE, Singapore
and China
Top import partners – China, UAE, Saudi and USA
6. EU – as single market the largest trading partner
7. In 2013, EU exported to India at 2.1% (11th) and
imported only 3% (8th)
INTRODUCTION

10. INDIAN PORTS AND THEIR
PERFORMANCE
• Seaports – blessed with 7 on west and 8 on east coast
• 95% of trade volume and 70% value –
• biggest challenges are import-export imbalance, low drafts and
policy issues
• non-major ports growing 3 to 5 times than major ports snatching
2-3% every year market share

11. COASTAL SHIPPING IN
INDIA
Coastal shipping only at 7% where china 20% and japan 40% - optimal evacuation by waterways is only 2% against
10% normal – 87% catered by road and rail – cagr of 8.3% in coastal shipping – mostly handled by major ports at
70% , eg in 2011-12 major ports handled 106 MT and non at 53 mt coastal cargo – west handling industrial and
finished goods in containers, while east handling break bulk – Others section like containers, project and
automobile, steel moderately growing, so changing trade patterns are in right direction for coastal and IW – break
bulk demand comes from coal states like Odisha, Jharkhand and Tamilnadu and steel cement indu in guajrat and
maharahstra – POL 49% mainly to haldia, Kandla, vizag and Mumbai to fuel their industries -

12. • Majority of the hinterland demand in central and northeast India
• Maharashtra and Gujarat – fertilizers, iron ores, bauxite, lime,
automobiles, steel and cement break bulk demands
• POL rich Jamnagar catering 49% of total oil requirements
• Large and resilient economy – adaptable to ‘Marco Polo’ plans
• POL, Coal and Iron ore – 85% coastal composition – Profile nature
• Room for containerized cargo mainly ‘Others’ – 7% CAGR – marbles,
tiles, project cargo and Automobiles using RORO

13. 2012-13 – Top commodities are Mineral fuels (6.6 b$),
Nuclear reactors (2.5 b$) mainly from WB to southern states.
WB a large plastics importer from Maharashtra, also internal
movement of same. Maharashtra major salts and Sulphur
importer from Gujarat and exchanged iron and steel between
them and traded to south.
2013-14 – Mineral fuels (almost 90% trade at 7.8 b$ within
southern states AP and TN and within Maharashtra), iron ores
and ashes continued to grow at 10-15%. WB 90% imports are
from Andaman islands comprising edible fruits, and oil seeds
and exchanged with project cargo for its solar plant. Gujarat
as usual to south partners inc Karnataka

14. IDENTIFIED COMMODITIES AND ROUTES – FOSTERING >20 MTPA
Suggestions:
1. Return voyage – Hub & spoke model across CERs with godown and silos to
store grains or supporting commodities
2. Cargo evacuation – tri-modal injection green channels
3. SSS and RORO for Gulf countries and southern India

15. 0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
Andhra(excluding…
Assam
Bihar
Chandigarh
Goa
Otherportsof…
HimachalPradesh
Jharkhand
Otherportsof…
OtherportsofKerala
Maharashtra(exclu…
Manipur
Mizoram
Orissa
Punjab
Tamil…
Tripura
UttarPradesh
Otherportsof…
Inland Movement of goods(all ITCHSs combined) Trade Block-wise
by Indian rail during 2013-14 (Figures in Thousand MT)
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
Inland Movement of Goods (all ITCHSs combined) Trade
Block-wise by Indian Rail during 2012-13
(Figures in Thousand MT)
INWARD
OUTWARD
Divided into 37*37 trade block matrix
Major prods are Iron and steel, Sugar, Ores and Cereals
Maharashtra 20% inc inw yoy – chattisgarh, Orissa, AP and
Karnataka and 10% dec in out to Gujarat and MP
WB to Bihar, Jharkhand and UP – 24.5 MT in 2014
Decline in principal commodities in 2014 – Road transport
Mineral fuels,
mineral oils and
products of their
distillation;
bituminoussubstan
ces; mineral waxes.
8%
Salt; sulphur,
earths and
stones;
plastering
materials, lime
and cement
0%
Unspecified items
0%
Ores, slag and ash.
22%
Cereals
9%Iron and steel.
34%
Tanning or dyeing
extracts; tannins
and their
derivatives; dyes,
pigmentsandother
colouring matter,
paints and
varnishes; putty
and othermastics;
inks.
1%
Fertilisers.
3%
Residues and waste
from the food
industries;
prepared animal
fodder.
5%
Sugars and sugar
confectionery.
17%
others
1%
Prinicipal commodities of rail transport 2014
RAIL CARGO MOVEMENT 2012-14