The document provides an analysis of trends and business opportunities in BRIC economies through 2050. It notes that the world's population is aging due to increased life expectancy and lower birth rates. While developed markets have an older median age, some emerging markets like India and China will have a significant elderly population. Technology opportunities exist in products to help the elderly. Rising incomes in BRIC cities and preference for energy efficiency also present opportunities. Working women and single-person households are growing trends that will transform household product needs.

1. Finnacle Investments
January, 2015
1
Finnacle Investments
In this Issue:
Monthly Portfolio Analysis
Stock Recommendation:
ALEMBIC
PHARMACEUTICALS LTD
Investor Watch: Bill Ackman
What's Hot? (News and
happenings)
Deal Watch
Technical trading term of the
day: Head and Shoulders
Article: Trends Analysis and
Business Opportunities in
BRIC Economies
Return Plus +
(Investments, portfolio and much more)
Banking
26%
Technology
13%
Oil and Gas
8%
Automotive
15%
Pharmaceuticals
13%
Engineering
14%
Media &
Entertainment
8%
Others
3%
Portfolio Allocation as on 31st Dec 2014
Stock Buy Price
(INR)
Sell Price (INR) Holding Period
Return
Infosys 1930 2100 8.81%
Yes Bank 598 763.2 27.63%
PVR 612 685 11.93%
HCL
Technologies
1500 1665.4 11.03%
Akzo Nobel 1320 1450 9.85%
MONTHLY PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS

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January, 2015
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 Alembic Pharma is a leader in several sub-segments of anti-infective therapeutic
segment. In the last two to three years the company has invested heavily in increasing
revenue from chronic therapies and regulated markets, which are high margin businesses.
 The company continues to improve its year-on-year margins year after year with an
EBITDA margin of 19% by the end of FY14. This is expected to grow by 100-125 bps
annually and reach 23-24% over next 3-4 years owing to growing international generic
business on account of: annual launches of 7-9 products in the US market including
complex generics and many high value launches, market share improvement in existing
products in US, ramp up in European generic portfolio where the company is expected to
be the generic for a niche product.
 The company is expected to go live with its own front end in US in FY16 which will
assist in gaining higher market share in the new launches and ramp up existing products
that the company has launched through front end partners.
 Alembic Pharma has final ANDA (Abbreviated New Drug Application) approvals for 31
products out of which it has commercialized 25 products and is expected to launch some
of the products once it has its own front end.
Parameter Value(INR)
52-Week High 493.90 (12-Jan-2015)
52-Week Low 211.25 (27-Jan-2014)
Current Market Price 477.85 (25-Jan-2015)
STOCK RECOMMENDATION: ALEMBIC PHARMACEUTICALS LTD
FUNDAMENTALS

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January, 2015
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 Domestic formulation is expected to grow by 16-18% annually on account of around 25
new launches in specialty segment while international brands (ROW – 3% of sales) are
expected to grow by 25-30% on account of low base and commercialization of products
in new markets like South East Asia, CIS, brazil, East Africa where company has made
filings over last 2 years.
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Revenue EBITDA PAT
14,679
2,194
1,301
15,260
2,520 1,652
18,684
3,577
2,355
Revenue, EBITDA, PAT (in INR million)
FY12
FY13
FY14
FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

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January, 2015
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Founder, Pershing Square Capital Management
Ackman got his start in the real estate business, where he worked for his father prior to starting
Gotham. Bill Ackman is an activist investor. He buys the common stocks of public companies,
and pushes for changes so that the market can realize the value of the companies. Ackman buys
stocks trading at a discount, and sells when the companies reach their appraised value. His firm
performed incredibly in 2014. In the first six months of the year, the flagship hedge fund
returned 25% after fees. The portfolio includes new investment in Allergan, which drive
performance. Ackman helped back Valeant Pharmaceuticals' hostile takeover of Allergan by
taking a position in the target company before the effort was made public, benefiting from the
surge in Allergan's stock. In 2014, Ackman has also seen his huge bet against Herbalife go his
way as shares of the company fell. Ackman continues to be one of the most prominent activist
investors, managing some $15 billion and working to raise billions of dollars more in permanent
capital.
INVESTOR WATCH: Bill Ackman
Net Worth: US$1.69 billion (as on
November 2014)
Source of Wealth: Hedge funds, Self-Made
Age: 48
Education: Bachelor of Arts / Science,
Harvard University; Master of Business
Administration, Harvard University
Residence: New York

5. Finnacle Investments
January, 2015
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RBI’s surprise rate cut
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) surprised
markets with a 25 basis point reduction in
repo rates on Thursday, 15 Jan bringing it to
7.75% the Cash reserve ratio is however
remains unchanged to 4%. The main reason
for rate cut is to ease inflationary pressures
and to achieve fiscal deficit target. This
move of RBI will boost investor sentiments
and will have positive impact on capital
intensive industry like Auto and Auto
Ancillary Sector, Real Estate and
Infrastructure sector and Banking and NBFC
sector.
TCS ends RIL's 23-year run as most
profitable firm
Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) has
overtaken Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) to
become the country's most profitable private
company on a quarterly basis. RIL has
been topping the profitability charts since
1992-93, when it went past Tata Steel in the
rankings. TCS posted a profit of Rs 5328
crore for the quarter ended December where
reliance profit dipped to Rs 5256 crore due
to falling crude oil prices.
Airtel, Idea, RComm & Vodafone may
collectively bid Rs 74,000 crore for 900 Hz
spectrum
Airtel, Idea, RComm & Vodafone may
collectively bid Rs 74,000 crore for
spectrum as these companies are expected to
prioritize 900 MHz airwave renewals over
boosting their 3G . The operators are likely
to factor in existing debt, incremental capex
needs for data business and fallback cash
reserves to acquire super-efficient 4G
airwaves in the 700 MHz band in the near
future spectrum holdings.
Novartis AG and GlaxoSmithKline to
create a global healthcare joint venture
Novartis India is selling its OTC division to
GlaxoSmithKline, Consumer Private Ltd, a
consumer healthcare joint venture between
Novartis AG and GSK, for a consideration
of Rs 109.7 crore. The transfer of the
business is subject to the receipt of all
applicable legal and regulatory approvals,
consents, permissions and sanctions as may
be necessary from concerned authorities.
Drop in the crude oil by 60% since Jan
2014
Crude oil prices have fallen down to its
lowest level of five and a half years. This
drop has been due to increase in the
production of US shale oil and decrease in
demand by Europe and Asia. As per the
Goldman Sachs, WTI will be trading at $41
a barrel and Brent at $42 in three months
and they also believe prices will stay lower
for longer. In order to re-balance the global
market the investment in shale has to be
curtailed. Societal General has reduced their
average WTI price to $51a barrel for this
year and Brent will average around $55 a
barrel. With the supply staying at its own
place and the demand going weak, the oil
prices will keep going down.
What's Hot? (News and Happenings)

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January, 2015
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Apollo Health acquires Nova Specialty Hospital for Rs. 145 crore
In a strategic move aimed at expansion, Apollo Health and Lifestyle, a wholly owned subsidiary
of Apollo Hospitals Group has acquired Nova Specialty Hospital in a Rs. 145 crore deal. Nova is
currently present in 8 cities including Mumbai, Jaipur and Kanpur. The existing Nova centers
will function under the Apollo brand name. Apollo Hospital is looking for a business of Rs.500
crore in a span of 5 years in multi-specialty short stay/day surgery centers, while the combined
network is expected to clock a turnover between Rs 115 crore - 125 crore for the year ending in
Mar'15 and reach break even in the next 18-24 months.
Reliance Capital all set to exit Yatra.com with a 12-fold gain by sale of its 16% stake
Reliance Capital is all set to sell its 16% stake in the online travel portal Yatra.com for Rs 500
crore, a 12-times appreciation since investment of Rs. 40 crore in 2006. The move to exit
Yatra.com cashes in on the booming e-commerce industry and is in sync with the Reliance
Group's recently announced plans to focus on core business and encashing its minority
investments. The company is in talks with 2-3 international investors and expects to close the
deal in 4-6 weeks.
Zomato buys Italian restaurant search guide, its fifth deal on the global front in recent
months
In what would be its fifth buy in the recent months, Zomato Media Private Limited has bought an
Italian restaurant search guide, Cibando for an undisclosed amount. With this, the company has
expanded its presence to 20 countries. The company appears to be on a global acquisition spree
with plans to enter the US market through acquisition of market leaders and building global
payment systems for the diners. Here's a look at Zomato's recent buys:
Company Country Amount
Gastronauci Poland Undisclosed
Lunchtime.cz Czech Republic $2.2 million
Obedovat.sk Slovakia $1 million
MenuMania New Zealand Undisclosed
American Tower Corporation to Pick up Majority Stake in Viom Networks
American Tower Corporation is soon going to acquire 51% stake in Viom networks, the second
largest tower company in India, in a deal that is estimated to be around $ 1 billion. In the first
phase, Srei Infrastructure, which currently holds 18.5% stake would exit the venture while Tata's
current stake of 55% would be trimmed down to 26-30% and would become a minority
DEAL WATCH

7. Finnacle Investments
January, 2015
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shareholder along with Macquarie Fund, SBI, GIC, Oman Investment Fund and IDFC. The
second phase of the deal involves merger of Viom with the Indian entity of the ATC which
currently owns 12,000 towers in the country. The merged entity would be looking at a public
offering through which Tatas would seek a complete exit. Viom owns around 42,000 towers in
the country and counts Tata Teleservices as one of its major clients bringing in over 40% of the
revenues. ATC recently acquired 4,800 communication towers from Bharti Airtel for $1.05
billion.
Head and Shoulders pattern is basically identified when the security prices cover all of the
following characteristics:
1. Price first falls to a trough and then make a rise
2. Price again fall below the former trough
3. It makes a rise again.
4. Finally, after this price falls again, but not as far as second trough.
5. Once the final trough, price heads upward towards the resistance level.
INVESTOR DECISION: Investor takes a long position when price rises above the resistance
of the neckline.
First and third troughs are called as shoulder (as shown in figure) and second peak is the
head. We also have inverse Head and Shoulders pattern.
TECHNICAL TRADING TERM OF THE MONTH - HEAD AND SHOULDERS

8. Finnacle Investments
January, 2015
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Ageing World
 World is taking a transition in demographics. Population is getting older due to a
combination of longer life expectancy especially in developed markets and decline in
birth rates. Euro-monitor report reveals that in 2012, 577 million people were in the
age category of 65+. This will rise to 775 million people in 2020 and will further rise to
35% in 2050 (keeping in mind current trends).
 Though the demographic shift is more prevalent in developed market- Western
Europe’s median age population is 40, while the global median age is 30. Few
emerging markets like India and China will have significant elderly consumers.
Technology: Niche Opportunities
 One of the game changer points is rise in ownership of technology. Like in 2001,
average spending on computers was US $ 22 in Western Europe and at US $17 in
North America. Now, it has risen to US $ 77 in Western Europe and US $ 73 in
North America.
 Technology aimed at formation of cleaning products that are less likely to use water and
other fossil fuel. The innovations are likely to be game changer in home care.
Income level
 In BRIC mega-cities, exponential economic growth, improvement in living standards and
higher consumer spending will lead to intense competition and market saturation. The
rising disposable income in second tier cities will lead to accessibility of Western brands.
Though smaller in size, BRIC cities have projected to rise up 30-50% in next decades.
Energy efficiency preference
 For energy exporters like Saudi Arabia, UAE; energy affordability and security was
never been the major concern. However, these countries still suffer from impact on
the environment from energy production. For emerging market economies
diversification of energy mix has always been the cause of concern. These countries rely
on fossils for the electricity production. Economic growth and population will raise the
demand for energy in these EMEs.
 In all these 25 economies, aggregate population will expand by around 12.7% during
2014-30 and this will further rise by approximately 10% in 50s. Till 2030, population
in these EMEs will reach up to 4.7 billion or 56% of world’s population in absolute
terms.
 According to the report by “Energy Outlook 2035”, India and China alone will be
responsible for the half of increase in energy demand by 2035.This will further rise till
2050.
Trends Analysis and Business Opportunities in BRIC Economies (till 2050)

9. Finnacle Investments
January, 2015
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Working Women
 World scenario is changing in terms of employment. Female employment has grown to
66% in 2012 comparing to 58% in 1983 in UK. Thus, household chores will transform
evenly. Similar is the case with the EMEs .Moreover, marriage rate is falling. For
example in UK, marriage rate dropped to 5 in 1,000 to 7 people in 1000 over the last
30 years. This will further fall in coming 30 years. Single person household will
show the growth of up to 47.1 million worldwide (2012-20 scenarios). Thus the
scenario will rise further in coming years.
 The shift to nuclear families that started in west has started in EMEs. Thus, in 40s and
50s younger men has to manage the household work themselves.
Thus, huge transformation in the trends in BRIC countries provides new opportunities to do
businesses.
JYOTI GUPTA
PGDM 2014-16
IMT GHAZIABAD

10. Finnacle Investments
January, 2015
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Editorial Team
Anshu Mishra
Neha Kumar
Jyoti Gupta