1. Strategic risk management is critical for complex programme environments with multiple interrelated elements and external influences. It is important to identify uncertainties linked to objectives and create value through managing threats and opportunities.
2. Programme management requires coordinating interconnected projects to achieve outcomes and benefits. This results in a high degree of risk due to uncertainties in cost, duration, and quality.
3. Strategic risk management enables clear links between strategic objectives and programme risks. It provides a framework to identify, assess, and respond to risks across different levels from projects to programmes to the overall strategy.
1. STRATEGIC RISK –
ENABLING STRATEGIC RISK IN A PROGRAMME ENVIRONMENT
ALISON J COATES
M.COMM (INDUSTRIAL PSYCHOLOGY) / MSP / PRINCE 2
2. If there's one thing that's certain in business, it's uncertainty.
Stephen Covey
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4. • /SO 31000: “Effect of uncertainty on objectives”
‘what matters’
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A state of uncertainty whereby possible outcomes involve losses of
varying degrees depending on the actual outcome.
5. R¾k
A state of uncertainty whereby possible outcomes involve losses of
varying degrees depending on the actual outcome.
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– Pn h €uu u° no°o°¾ o€ u°nf°
6. CONSTRUCTION –
THE CASE FOR PROGRAMME MANAGEMENT
MASTERING COMPLEXITY KEY TO IMPROVED PERFORMANCE
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High degree of risk: Uncertainty in final cost; duration and quality
11. LEVELS OF RISK –
UNDERSTANDING THE PROGRAMME RISK
ENVIRONMENT
12. Focus: Benefits Value creation to achieve
performance targets
Defined by group of dependent projects – relate to
each other
Focus: Achieving Performance Target to achieve Corporate
Objectives
Defined by group of programmes, which may or may not
be relatedPORTFOLIO
MANAGEMENT
PROGRAMME
MANAGEMENT
PROJECT
MANAGEMENT
CORPORATE
OBJECTIVES
Focus: Outputs to deliver, which create
value / benefits to be realized via Transition
Management
Corporate
Vision
13. l¾ o€ R¾k ° Pogfmm
E° o°m°
Pojn Exnuo°
Oupu f¾
Focus: Effect of uncertainty of delivering
outputs on time; cost and quality
Pogfmm Exnuo°
Ounom f¾
Focus: Effect of uncertainty of planning;
coordinating and delivering outcomes
Sfgn R¾k
sflu $ °€¾
Focus: Effect of uncertainty of realizing benefits and
delivering change in capability
Focus: Risk based decision making about ‘what
matters’n¾o°
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R¾k
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PESTLE Assumption
Risk source
(Element which alone,
or in combination, has
the potential to give
rise to a risk)
Risk Event
(Change of a
particular set of
circumstances)
Risk Short Name
Consequence on
project
(Outcome of a risk
event affecting
project objectives)
Risk treatment
(Process to modify a
risk by removing,
reducing likelihood,
reducing impact)
Controls
(Measures which
modify risk - can be in
place or be planned)
Contingency Plan
(What are we going to
do when risk realise)
Risk Owner
(Responsible
Person
Agreed)
Risk Control
Effectiveness
RCE
Rate
%
Control Owners
Consequence
Rating
Consq
Rate
%
Likelihood Rating
Likely
Rate
%
Residual
Risk
Desired Risk Control
Effectiveness
Political Upcoming 2014 elections Possible leadership changes
at national and/or provincial
/ within SIP2 structures
Which could result in losing
political support / reduce
appetite for Port and / or
SIP2 programme from within
Government
Improve SIP2 back of port
structure -
Manage workshops
working groups more
effectively - Irvindra
Set up SIP2 stakeholder
enagement forum - Irvindra
SIP2 workshops working
groups
SIP2 stakeholder
engagement forum - Back of
Port
PSP Project for Tambo
Springs
Mark Gregg-
Macdonald
SIP2 workshops working
groups - Requires
improvement 60%
SIP2 stakeholder
engagement forum - Back of
Port
None 10%
PSP Project for Tambo
Springs
75%
48% SIP2 workshops
working groups - Irvindra
SIP2 stakeholder
engagement forum - Back
of Port
Irvindra
PSP Project for Tambo
Springs
Petrus Fusi
SIP2 workshops
working groups -
Requires improvement
60%
SIP2 stakeholder
engagement forum -
Back of Port
None 10%
PSP Project for Tambo
Springs
75%
SIP2 workshops
working groups -
Irvindra 30%
SIP2 stakeholder
engagement forum -
Back of Port
Irvindra 30%
PSP Project for Tambo
Springs
Petrus Fusi 30%
30% 0% SIP2 workshops working
groups - Requires
improvement 80%
SIP2 stakeholder
engagement forum - Back of
Port
80%
PSP Project for Tambo
Springs
80%
Political Focus on 2014 election
campaigns
Delayed decisions making in
lead up to elections
Delay approvals - DOT for
Promulgation / DPW for
various relocations (SAAF
etc)
Delay approval of land
acquisitions (remaining 31)
due to delays in PFMA
SIP2
Manage workshops
working groups more
effectively - Irvindra
Set up SIP2 stakeholder
enagement forum - Irvindra
Manage workshops and
meetings with DEA and
provide feedback to DDOP -
Christelle
Shareholder plan (SIP2
Engagement Forums)
Bi-Monthly DEA meetings
(and other platforms within
Transet for engaging
shareholders)
Mark Gregg-
Macdonald
SIP2 stakeholder
engagement forum - Back of
Port
None 10%
DEA meetings (bi-monthly)
75%
SIP2 stakeholder
engagement forum - Back
of Port
Irvindra
DEA Meetings - Christelle
vd Merwe
2 - 65% 65% B - 15% 15% 10% SIP2 workshops working
groups - Requires
improvement 80%
SIP2 stakeholder
engagement forum - Back of
Port
80%
DEA Meetings 80%
Sfgn R¾k Mf°fgm°
20. Sfgn n¾o° Suppo
Objciv
• /°€om n¾o° mfk°g flg°
o nopof ¾fg
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u°g opo° f°fl ¾¾ f°
n¾o°¾ o fnh lo°g m f°
¾ho m ounom¾
• /°€ u°nf°¾ (opo°¾)
l°k o k n¾o°¾ o ¾n°fo’¾
Pojn Exnuo°
Oupu f¾
Pogfmm Exnuo°
Ounom f¾
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sflu $ °€¾
cision
S ½½o
Risk
“Information is the resolution of uncertainty” (f d Sfnnon, Df¯ficifn –
Ff o€ In€o¯fion To )
