This Closing Workshop presents the output produced under the project. Modelling, analysis, and training activities’ results will be discussed and presentations will provide a walk-through of the spatial database, including both the modeling work that took place in the background as well as the online platform built to host the data in a user-friendly manner.

1. This project is funded
by the European Union
Closing Workshop
Building A Post-COVID-19 Recovery & Agricultural-Foresight Department In Egypt
Model-based Post-COVID-19 Recovery Assessments for
Agricultural Value Chains
Alaa Said, DTU-MALR & Mariam Raouf, IFPRI
Project members MoALR: Mohamed El-Kersh, Mohamed Atef, Alaa Ali, Lobna Farghaly, Zeinab
Abderabuh, Ghada Tahoun; Cairo University: Fadi Abdelradi, Khaled Abdou, Ehab Abdelaziz,
Victor Faris, Saleh Nasr, Zaki Nassar; IFPRI: Clemens Breisinger, Mariam Raouf, Manfred Wiebelt
Monday, March 14th, 2022
Cairo, Egypt
egyptssp@ifpri.org
@EUinEgypt
@IFPRI_Egypt

2. Main Activities
• Economy-wide model for Egypt, including investment and policy scenarios
• 10 online CGE training sessions with 11 participants from Ag-Foresight
department & Cairo University
• 4 Arabic sessions with Ag-Foresight department
• Training material, including offline GAMS model cum MS Excel interface, shared
via Google Drive folder with participants.

3. • Collaborative Policy Note with training
participants:
• Investing in Dates, Poultry, Olive, and
Medicinal & Aromatic Plants Value Chains
in Egypt: Assessing the economy-wide
impacts
• 3 Briefing Notes to Minister of
Agriculture and Land Reclamation
prepared:
• Using IFPRI’s AIDA Online Tool to Assess
National Investment Scenarios
• Using IFPRI’s AIDA Online Tool to Assess
Regional Investment Scenarios
• Using IFPRI’s AIDA Offline Tool to Assess
Agricultural Value-chain Investment
Scenarios
https://ebrary.ifpri.org/digital/collection/p
15738coll2/id/134986

4. ‫االقتصاد‬ ‫صعيد‬ ‫على‬‫تحليل‬
‫تهدف‬
"
‫االنترنت‬ ‫عبر‬‫الزراعية‬‫ات‬‫ر‬‫االستثما‬‫بيانات‬‫تحليل‬‫أداة‬
"
‫االقتصاد‬ ‫صعيد‬ ‫على‬‫الحادثة‬‫ات‬‫ر‬‫التأثي‬‫تحليل‬‫إلى‬
(
‫االقتصاد‬ ‫قطاعات‬ ‫جميع‬‫عبر‬
)
‫ضخ‬ ‫عن‬‫والناتجة‬
‫الغذائية‬‫الزراعية‬‫املنظومة‬ ‫في‬‫ات‬‫ر‬‫استثما‬
.
‫يلي‬ ‫ما‬‫على‬‫األداة‬ ‫وتعتمد‬
:
•
‫يلي‬ ‫ما‬ ‫يرصد‬‫والذي‬ ،‫االقتصاد‬‫ى‬‫مستو‬ ‫على‬‫القائم‬‫للحساب‬‫القابل‬‫العام‬‫ن‬‫التواز‬ ‫نموذج‬
:

‫الغ‬‫الزراعية‬‫املنظومة‬ ‫مكونات‬ ‫كافة‬
‫ذ‬
‫ائية‬

‫والعوامل‬،‫األنشطة‬ ‫عبر‬‫أو‬ ‫القطاعات‬ ‫عبر‬‫القائمة‬‫الروابط‬
/
‫العالم‬ ‫أنحاء‬ ‫وسائر‬ ،‫والحكومة‬،‫املعيشية‬ ‫واألسر‬،‫الهامة‬‫العناصر‬

‫الفرعية‬‫األقاليم‬
‫الدولة‬‫داخل‬
.
•
‫يلي‬ ‫ما‬ ‫على‬‫الزراعية‬‫ات‬‫ر‬‫االستثما‬ ‫عن‬‫الناتج‬‫التأثير‬ ‫تقييم‬ ‫بهدف‬
:

‫االقتصادي‬‫النمو‬ ‫معدل‬

‫العمالة‬‫توظيف‬ ‫معدل‬

‫املعيشية‬ ‫األسر‬ ‫فاهية‬‫ر‬ ‫معدل‬
‫من‬ ‫كل‬‫النموذج‬‫ويرصد‬
:

‫جانب‬ ‫إلى‬،‫ات‬‫ر‬‫االستثما‬ ‫عن‬‫الناتجة‬ ‫املباشرة‬‫ات‬‫ر‬‫التأثي‬
...

‫االقتصادية‬ ‫القطاعات‬ ‫سائر‬ ‫ى‬‫مستو‬ ‫على‬‫الحادثة‬‫الجانبية‬‫اآلثار‬ ‫أو‬ ‫املباشرة‬ ‫غير‬‫ات‬‫ر‬‫التأثي‬ ‫كافة‬

5. ‫النتائج‬
|
‫اإلجمالي‬ ‫املحلي‬ ‫الناتج‬‫مكاسب‬
•
‫والت‬ ‫الزراعي‬ ‫االنتاج‬ ‫نطاق‬ ‫توسيع‬ ‫في‬ ‫ي‬‫الر‬ ‫نظام‬ ‫في‬‫االستثمار‬‫سهم‬ُ‫ي‬
‫الزراعي‬‫صنيع‬
.
•
‫بمقدار‬‫الزراعي‬ ‫اإلجمالي‬ ‫املحلي‬‫الناتج‬‫تفاع‬‫ر‬‫ا‬
٧٥٥
‫حيث‬ ،‫ي‬‫مصر‬‫جنيه‬‫ن‬‫مليو‬
‫إلى‬‫التكلفة‬‫نسبة‬ ‫عادل‬
ُ
‫ت‬
‫العائد‬
‫الزراعي‬‫القطاع‬ ‫في‬
(
٧٥٥
‫ي‬‫مصر‬‫جنيه‬‫ن‬‫مليو‬
/
٣٧٥
‫ي‬‫مصر‬‫جنيه‬‫ن‬‫مليو‬
)=
٢,٠
.
•
‫الغ‬‫الزراعية‬‫املنظومة‬ ‫إطار‬ ‫في‬‫الواقعة‬‫الزراعية‬ ‫غير‬ ‫القطاعات‬ ‫تصاعد‬
‫ذائية‬
‫بمقدار‬
٥١
‫ي‬‫مصر‬‫جنيه‬‫ن‬‫مليو‬
.
•
‫خا‬ ‫الواقعة‬ ‫القطاعات‬ ‫في‬‫ل‬‫األو‬ ‫املقام‬ ‫في‬‫الزراعية‬‫غير‬ ‫املكاسب‬‫تتمركز‬
‫نطاق‬ ‫رج‬
‫الغذائية‬‫الزراعية‬ ‫املنظومة‬
:
•
١٩٩
‫ي‬‫مصر‬‫جنيه‬‫ن‬‫مليو‬
–
٥١
‫ي‬‫مصر‬‫جنيه‬‫ن‬‫مليو‬
=
١٤٨
‫جنيه‬‫ن‬‫مليو‬
‫ي‬‫مصر‬
•
‫اإلجمالي‬ ‫املحلي‬ ‫الناتج‬ ‫مكاسب‬ ‫إجمالي‬
=
٩٥٥
‫ي‬‫مصر‬ ‫جنيه‬ ‫ن‬‫مليو‬
•
‫األس‬‫منافسة‬ ‫اعاة‬‫ر‬‫وم‬‫د‬‫ر‬‫املوا‬‫احتساب‬ ‫بعد‬‫الوضع‬ ‫عن‬ ‫اإلجمالي‬‫هذا‬‫يعبر‬
‫واق‬
.
‫اإلجمالي‬‫املحلي‬ ‫الناتج‬‫مكاسب‬
‫الناتجة‬
‫ي‬‫الر‬‫نظام‬‫في‬‫االستثمار‬‫من‬
(
‫ماليين‬
‫املصرية‬‫الجنيهات‬
)
‫مالحظة‬
:
‫يشمل‬
"
‫التصنيع‬‫وقطاع‬‫الزراعة‬‫قطاع‬ ‫اإلجمالي‬
(
‫قطاع‬
‫التجهيز‬
)
‫ى‬‫األخر‬‫القطاعات‬‫وكافة‬
(
‫املثال‬‫سبيل‬ ‫على‬
:
‫و‬‫التجارة‬
،‫املصارف‬
‫ذلك‬ ‫إلى‬‫وما‬
)
٩٥٥
٨٠٧
٧٥٥
٧٠٠
٥٣
١٩٩
٥١
٢
‫الناتج‬
‫التكلفة‬
‫الزيادة‬
/
‫الوحدة‬
‫التكلفة‬
/
‫الوحدة‬
‫اإلنفاق‬
‫الفئة‬
١٣٨,٨٩
‫فدان‬
(
١٠٠٠
)
٣٧٥
‫مصري‬ ‫جنيه‬ ‫مليون‬
٢٥
٪
٢٧٠٠
‫مصري‬ ‫جنيه‬
٣٧٥
‫مصري‬ ‫جنيه‬ ‫مليون‬
‫الري‬ ‫نظام‬‫تطوير‬
‫االستثمارات‬ ‫عن‬‫الناتج‬‫التأثير‬
‫اإلجمالي‬ ‫املحلي‬‫الناتج‬
‫بالجنيه‬ ‫الحادث‬‫التغير‬
‫املصري‬
‫اإلجمالي‬ ‫املحلي‬‫الناتج‬
‫التغير‬‫نسبة‬
‫التوظيف‬
/
‫العمالة‬
‫العمالة‬ ‫أعداد‬‫في‬ ‫الحادث‬‫التغير‬
(
١٠٠٠
)
‫التوظيف‬
/
‫العمالة‬
‫التغير‬‫نسبة‬
‫املعيشية‬‫األسر‬ ‫رفاهية‬
‫التغير‬‫نسبة‬
‫املطلقة‬ ‫رات‬ُّ‫التغي‬
(
‫املصرية‬ ‫الجنيهات‬ ‫ماليين‬
)
‫املنظومة‬‫داخل‬ ‫الواقعة‬ ‫القطاعات‬
‫الغذائية‬ ‫الزراعية‬
‫اإلجمالي‬
‫الزراعية‬ ‫القطاعات‬
‫املتعلقة‬‫الفرعية‬ ‫القطاعات‬
‫الزراعية‬ ‫باملحاصيل‬
‫بال‬ ‫املتعلقة‬‫الفرعية‬ ‫القطاعات‬
‫ثروة‬
‫الحيوانية‬
‫األخر‬ ‫الزراعية‬ ‫الفرعية‬ ‫القطاعات‬
‫ى‬
‫الزراعية‬‫غير‬ ‫القطاعات‬
‫الواقعة‬ ‫الزراعية‬‫غير‬ ‫القطاعات‬
‫الغذائية‬ ‫الزراعية‬ ‫املنظومة‬ ‫داخل‬
‫الوطني‬‫املستوى‬
٠ ٢٥٠ ٥٠٠ ٧٥٠ ١٠٠٠

6. ‫النتائج‬
|
‫نسب‬
‫ة‬
‫املكاسب‬
‫التكاليف‬ ‫إلى‬
•
‫اإلجمالي‬ ‫املحلي‬‫الناتج‬ ‫مكاسب‬
>
‫اإلجمالية‬ ‫ية‬‫ر‬‫االستثما‬ ‫التكاليف‬
•
‫نسبة‬
‫املكسب‬
‫التكلفة‬‫إلى‬
=
٢,٥
(
‫ها‬‫ر‬‫ومقدا‬‫اإلجمالي‬‫املحلي‬ ‫الناتج‬‫مكاسب‬ ،‫أي‬
٩٥٥
‫ي‬‫مصر‬ ‫جنيه‬ ‫ن‬‫مليو‬
/
‫ع‬‫و‬‫املشر‬ ‫تكلفة‬
‫ها‬‫ر‬‫ومقدا‬
٣٧٥
‫ي‬‫مصر‬ ‫جنيه‬ ‫ن‬‫مليو‬
.)
•
‫نسب‬ ‫مع‬‫نة‬‫ر‬‫باملقا‬
‫ة‬
‫املكاسب‬
‫ى‬‫األخر‬‫ية‬‫ر‬‫االستثما‬ ‫األنماط‬‫إطار‬ ‫في‬‫التكاليف‬ ‫إلى‬
.
•
‫شادية‬‫ر‬‫اإل‬‫والخدمات‬‫اعية‬‫ر‬‫الز‬ ‫الصوبات‬ ‫نحو‬ ‫املوجهة‬‫ات‬‫ر‬‫االستثما‬ ‫بعد‬ ‫الثالثة‬ ‫املرتبة‬ ‫تحتل‬
.
‫الفوائد‬‫إلى‬ ‫التكاليف‬ ‫نسب‬
(
‫اإلجمالي‬‫املحلي‬ ‫الناتج‬ ‫مكاسب‬
/
‫ية‬‫ر‬‫االستثما‬ ‫التكلفة‬
)
٢,٥
٣,٤
٠,٥
١,٥ ١,٠ ٠,٥ ١,٠
٥,٥

7. ‫النتائج‬
|
‫الغذائية‬‫املنظومة‬ ‫نواتج‬
•
‫ع‬ ‫اإلجمالي‬ ‫املحلي‬ ‫الناتج‬ ‫في‬ ‫مكاسب‬‫تحقيق‬ ‫مع‬ ‫ولكن‬ ،‫عين‬‫ر‬‫املزا‬ ‫ي‬‫الر‬ ‫نظام‬ ‫في‬‫االستثمار‬‫يستهدف‬
‫قطاعات‬ ‫مختلف‬‫بر‬
‫ها‬‫ز‬‫يتجاو‬‫وما‬ ‫الغذائية‬‫الزراعية‬ ‫املنظومة‬
.
•
‫الغذائي‬ ‫اإلنتاج‬ ‫من‬ ‫العرض‬ ‫يادة‬‫ز‬ ‫يؤدى‬
‫ل‬‫الدخو‬ ‫مستويات‬‫تفاع‬‫ر‬‫ا‬‫إلى‬
‫ب‬‫الخاصة‬
‫الزراعي‬‫املدخالت‬ ‫موردي‬
‫ة‬
(
‫عين‬‫ر‬‫ا‬‫ز‬‫امل‬
)
/
‫الغذائية‬ ‫والخدمات‬‫والتجهيز‬‫التصنيع‬‫مدخالت‬
‫و‬
‫جار‬ُ‫الت‬
.
•
‫تخصيص‬ ‫إعادة‬
(
‫توزيع‬ ‫إعادة‬
)
‫الزراعي‬‫القطاع‬ ‫من‬ ‫العوامل‬
–
‫الكفاءة‬ ‫من‬ ‫باملزيد‬‫يتصف‬ ‫أصبح‬ ‫والذي‬
–
‫نح‬
‫مجال‬‫و‬
‫الغذائية‬‫الزراعية‬ ‫املنظومة‬ ‫نطاق‬ ‫خارج‬ ‫الواقعة‬ ‫والقطاعات‬ ‫الزراعي‬‫التصنيع‬
.
Input suppliers
Farmers
Processors
Traders
Traders
Food Services
F
A
B
D
C
Hotels
E
‫الغذائية‬ ‫الزراعية‬ ‫املنظومة‬ ‫مكونات‬‫مختلف‬‫عبر‬ ‫اإلجمالي‬‫املحلي‬ ‫الناتج‬ ‫مكاسب‬
(
‫الجنيهات‬ ‫ماليين‬
)
٩٥٥
‫ج‬
٨٠٧
‫ج‬ ٧٥٥
‫ج‬ ٧٠٠
‫ج‬
٥٣
‫ج‬ ٢
‫ج‬
١٠٠
‫ج‬
٥١
‫ج‬
Total AFS Agriculture Crops Livestock Other
agriculture
Non-agriculture Non-agr. AFS
‫ن‬‫ارعو‬‫ز‬‫امل‬
‫التجار‬
‫ن‬‫املصنعو‬
‫التجار‬
‫الغذائية‬‫الخدمات‬
‫الفنادق‬
‫املدخالت‬ ‫موردي‬
‫الزراعية‬‫غير‬‫القطاعات‬
‫الغذائ‬‫الزراعية‬ ‫باملنظومة‬ ‫الواقعة‬
‫ية‬
‫القطاعات‬
‫الزراعية‬‫غير‬
‫الزراعية‬‫القطاعات‬
‫األخرى‬
‫الثروة‬
‫الحيوانية‬
‫املحاصيل‬
‫الزراعية‬
‫الزراعة‬
‫املنظومة‬
‫الغذائية‬ ‫الزراعية‬
‫اإلجمالي‬

8. ‫النتائج‬
|
‫االجتماعية‬ ‫الرفاهية‬ ‫مكاسب‬
•
‫االجتماعية‬‫الرفاهية‬‫قياس‬ ‫يتم‬
(
‫الفقر‬‫ار‬‫ر‬‫غ‬‫على‬
)
‫معدل‬ ‫على‬ ‫بناء‬
‫اإلنفاق‬
‫االستهالكي‬
:
•
‫وتوسيع‬‫ل‬‫الدخو‬‫مستويات‬‫يادة‬‫ز‬‫إلى‬‫االستثمار‬ ‫يؤدي‬
‫حجم‬
‫امل‬
‫ض‬‫و‬‫عر‬
‫الغذائي‬‫اإلنتاج‬ ‫من‬
‫ذلك‬‫إلى‬‫وما‬ ،‫الغذائية‬ ‫املواد‬‫أسعار‬‫وخفض‬
.
•
‫م‬‫أسر‬ ‫إلى‬‫االجتماعية‬‫الرفاهية‬‫مكاسب‬ ‫لثي‬
ُ
‫ث‬‫من‬ ‫يقرب‬‫ما‬ ‫يتجه‬
‫غير‬‫عيشية‬
‫اعية‬‫ر‬‫ز‬
•
‫غير‬ ‫املنشآت‬‫من‬ ‫الدخل‬‫بعض‬‫اعية‬‫ر‬‫الز‬‫املعيشية‬‫األسر‬‫تحقق‬
‫بالعكس‬‫والعكس‬ ‫اعية‬‫ر‬‫الز‬
.
•
‫وغ‬‫الحضرية‬‫املعيشية‬‫األسر‬‫ى‬‫مستو‬‫على‬ ‫الفرد‬‫مكاسب‬‫ز‬‫تتجاو‬
‫الفقيرة‬‫ير‬
‫الريفي‬‫املعيشية‬‫األسر‬‫ى‬‫مستو‬ ‫على‬ ‫الفرد‬‫مكاسب‬‫من‬‫مثيالتها‬
‫والفقيرة‬ ‫ة‬
.
‫ي‬‫الر‬ ‫نظام‬ ‫في‬‫االستثمار‬ ‫عن‬ ‫والناتجة‬ ‫املعيشية‬‫األسر‬‫فاهية‬‫ر‬ ‫في‬‫الحادثة‬ ‫ات‬‫ر‬ّ‫التغي‬
(
‫ات‬‫ر‬ُّ‫التغي‬ ‫نسب‬
)
٠,٠٥
٠,٠٥
٠,٠٥
٠,٠٦
٠,٠٣
‫ات‬‫ر‬‫االستثما‬‫عن‬ ‫الناتج‬‫التأثير‬
‫اإلجمالي‬‫املحلي‬ ‫الناتج‬
‫بالجنيه‬ ‫الحادث‬‫التغير‬
‫املصري‬
‫التوظيف‬
‫العمالة‬‫أعداد‬‫في‬ ‫الحادث‬‫التغير‬
(
١٠٠٠
)
‫التوظيف‬
‫الحادث‬‫التغير‬‫نسبة‬
‫املعيشية‬‫األسر‬‫رفاهية‬
‫التغير‬‫نسبة‬
‫الحاجث‬
‫اإلجمالي‬‫املحلي‬ ‫الناتج‬
‫الحادث‬‫التغير‬‫نسبة‬
‫اإلجمالي‬
‫املعيشية‬‫األسر‬ ‫رفاهية‬
‫الحادث‬‫التغير‬‫نسبة‬
‫التغير‬‫نسبة‬
‫ريفية‬‫معيشية‬‫أسر‬
‫حضرية‬ ‫معيشية‬‫أسر‬
‫فقيرة‬ ‫معيشية‬‫أسر‬
(
‫وحض‬‫ريفية‬
‫رية‬
)
‫فقيرة‬‫غير‬ ‫معيشية‬‫أسر‬
(
‫ريفية‬
‫وحضرية‬
)
٠,٠٢٧ ٠,٠٣٦ ٠.٠٤٥ ٠,٠٥٤ ٠,٠٦٣
‫الوطني‬‫املستوى‬

9. Using IFPRI’s AIDA Offline Tool to Assess Agricultural Value-
chain Investment Scenarios
National GDP Gains
• Combined investment in all 4 value chains expands agricultural &
agri-processing production
• Agric. GDP rises $469 mil. relative to baseline over 2020-2026
• Processing GDP rises $56 mil.
• Off-farm gains from all 3 investment types
• Total GDP gains = $713 million
• This is after accounting for resource & market competition (i.e., other
sectors decline slightly as workers engage more in 4 value chains)
• Direct impact of combined investment < total of individual
investments (see following slide)
• Because of resource & market competition
• GDP gains in agri-food system > total GDP gains
• Because of resource & market competition
National GDP gains from
combined investment in all 4
agricultural value chains
($ millions)
533
354
35
10
2
10
169
112
11
$713
$469
$56
Total Agriculture Processing
Marketing
Processing
Production

10. GDP Gains of Individual Value Chains
• Direct impact on agricultural growth is largest in the
poultry value chain (USD million 288) followed by the
MAP value chain
• $288 million > $173 million
• Agricultural transformation, i.e., the shift from
agriculture (AGR+) towards downstream processing
(OFF+), is strongest in the MAP value chain
• from $173 million to $428 million
• There are GDP losses in poultry processing (PRC+)
resulting from
• restructuring of poultry processing towards primary
poultry production
• Substitution of domestic poultry processing by imports

11. Conclusion
• Online AIDA CGE model easy to use tool for experimenting with different agricultural investment options
• Assessing impacts on national and sectoral GDP, employment and household welfare
• Takes into account spillovers to nonagricultural sectors inside and outside the Agri-Food System (AFS)
• Easy to use tool for comparing agricultural investment options across regions
• Benefits from investing into irrigation exceed its costs
• Benefit-cost ratio = 2.5, whereas BCR = 2.0 in agriculture (i.e., sectoral spillovers are positive, but not crucial)
• Benefits from investing into irrigation in Upper Egypt and the North exceed its regional investment costs
• BCR > 1.0 in agriculture in both regions (i.e., sectoral spillovers are positive, but not crucial)
• Benefit-cost ratio higher/lower in the North/Upper Egypt than national average
• Investing into irrigation helps transform Egypt’s agri-food system
• More than 20% of the GDP gains happen in off-farm sectors
• Yet most off-farm gains are outside food-related sectors
• Investing into irrigation improves the welfare of all households, rural and urban, poor and non-poor
• Yet urban and non-poor households are the major beneficiaries national of national investment projects
• The reason is that Egypt’s agricultural sectors are not very much integrated into world markets. As a results, investment measures
lower domestic food prices, which mostly benefits net consumers rather than net producers of agricultural goods
• Agricultural investments should be flanked by measures to integrate Egyptian agriculture into international
markets and value chains

12. Policy recommendations
• Investments in dates, poultry, olive, and medicinal and aromatic plants value chains (MAPs) all have
positive benefit/cost ratios and improve growth and jobs creation, while reducing poverty.
• Benefit/cost ratios for combined agricultural & agri-processing GDP range from 6.3 for MAPs and 5.7 for
poultry to 2.3 and 1.0 for dates and olive, respectively
• Poultry value chain has the strongest impacts on job creation and poverty reduction.
• To achieve the strongest development impacts simultaneously investing in production, processing and
marketing is key.
• Investing in digital extension services is essential to the current government agricultural plan, to provide
the farmers with timely and accurate knowledge, helping them to adapt to climate change conditions
• Production of MAPs could be expanded in the new cultivated lands as well, such as in Noubareya, in
Northern Egypt, to benefit from its proximity to export markets, thus reducing transportation and
transaction costs.
• Targeting new export markets to absorb the increasing supply of dates production and/ or investing in
dates processing activities.
• Developing new production techniques for poultry, by implementing closed or semi-closed systems of
production instead of open systems may help to stabilize the production rate of ‘day old chick’ and reduce
its mortality rates.

13. Policy recommendations
• Ag-foresight project has trained and supported development of a policy analysis team within the Digital
Transformation Unit that provides rapid response and longer-term strategic and high-quality advice to the
Minister and advisors based on the most advanced desktop and digital data and tools.
• AIDA online tool, is an innovative tool, with an easy, interactive and user-friendly interface. This CGE based
tool helps prioritizing investment in various agricultural sub-sectors, which is highly significant for MOALR
staff. They were trained to use this evidence-based tool, and they can apply it independently. Thus, it can be
useful in informing the policy makers and providing policy recommendations.
• CGE modelling is a highly complexed simulation tool, requiring advanced analytical skills. Thus, the strong
exchange/cooperation between the Ministry and Cairo University is highly needed, through internship and
learning by doing. MALR Foresight unit together with University of Cairo staff have an advanced
understanding of economy-wide modeling. Building on the foundation laid buy this project, capacity
strengthening in more sophisticated economy-wide modeling should be continued
• Such capacity in deploying foresight tools will remain a critical source of information for Egyptian policy
makers to be able to deal with various crisis and external shocks. Recent crises such as Covid19, Ukraine war
etc. have important implications concerning food supply and commodity prices, hence possible disruptions
for food security. Using evidence-based tool , such CGE modelling can provide a powerful modelling tool to
analyze the likely impacts and potential repercussions on the domestic economy and suggest the
appropriate policies and re-prioritize investments.