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From: Brown, Ravaillon, and van de Walle (2016)
Correct
excluded
Correct
beneficiaries
Inclusion
error
Exclusion
error
• Exclusion error: proportion of poor who
are not included
• Inclusion error: proportion of included
who are not poor
• Coverage: the share of the population
targeted
From: Brown, Ravaillon, and van de Walle (2016)
Inclusion
error
Exclusion
error
• Exclusion error: proportion of poor who
are not included
• Inclusion error: proportion of included
who are not poor
• Coverage: the share of the population
targeted
Increasing cut-off decreases exclusion
error, increases share of population
receiving benefits, but increases
inclusion error
From: Brown, Ravaillon, and van de Walle (2016)
Correct
Correct
Inclusion
error
Exclusion
error
• Exclusion error: proportion of poor who
are not included
• Inclusion error: proportion of included
who are not poor
• Coverage: the share of the population
targeted
Increasing cut-off decreases exclusion
error, increases share of population
receiving benefits, but increases
inclusion error
The trade-off in exclusion error vs. inclusion error as
you change coverage rate depends on the where
you are in the distribution
If coverage rates are very low (orange) there can be
a lot of reduction in exclusion error without too
much concern about inclusion error increasing
From: Brown, Ravaillon, and van de Walle (2016)
Correct
Correct
Inclusion
error
Exclusion
error
• Exclusion error: proportion of poor
who are not included
• Inclusion error: proportion of included
who are not poor
More accurate targeting reduces trade-off between
exclusion error and inclusion error…
But may have higher data/ administrative costs

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inclusion and exclusion errors- Sikandra Kurdi.pptx

  • 1. From: Brown, Ravaillon, and van de Walle (2016) Correct excluded Correct beneficiaries Inclusion error Exclusion error • Exclusion error: proportion of poor who are not included • Inclusion error: proportion of included who are not poor • Coverage: the share of the population targeted
  • 2. From: Brown, Ravaillon, and van de Walle (2016) Inclusion error Exclusion error • Exclusion error: proportion of poor who are not included • Inclusion error: proportion of included who are not poor • Coverage: the share of the population targeted Increasing cut-off decreases exclusion error, increases share of population receiving benefits, but increases inclusion error
  • 3. From: Brown, Ravaillon, and van de Walle (2016) Correct Correct Inclusion error Exclusion error • Exclusion error: proportion of poor who are not included • Inclusion error: proportion of included who are not poor • Coverage: the share of the population targeted Increasing cut-off decreases exclusion error, increases share of population receiving benefits, but increases inclusion error The trade-off in exclusion error vs. inclusion error as you change coverage rate depends on the where you are in the distribution If coverage rates are very low (orange) there can be a lot of reduction in exclusion error without too much concern about inclusion error increasing
  • 4. From: Brown, Ravaillon, and van de Walle (2016) Correct Correct Inclusion error Exclusion error • Exclusion error: proportion of poor who are not included • Inclusion error: proportion of included who are not poor More accurate targeting reduces trade-off between exclusion error and inclusion error… But may have higher data/ administrative costs