Trends in Supply Chain: The Beyond Belief Impacts of VUCA on Supply Chains and Commerce

The Beyond Belief Impacts of VUCA on
Supply Chains and Commerce
Jim Tompkins Emily Murphy
With: Moderated by:
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About Jim Tompkins
Dr. James A. Tompkins is an international authority on designing and implementing end-to-end
supply chains. As the founder and CEO of Tompkins International, his focus over the last several
years has been in the areas of digital commerce, unichannel and supply chain reinvention, helping
companies connect supply chain processes with the customer journey to increase longterm
profitable growth. Jim coined the phrase ‘Sell Anywhere,’ which is the strategy of selling through a
wide range of online and offline channels where consumers shop, buy and enjoy products, offering
a seamless, end-to-end customer experience.
About Emily Murphy
Emily earned a Bachelor of Arts from the University of California, Santa Cruz, for her major in Film
and Digital Media and minor in Literature. With experience in writing, publication, and teaching, she
continued her work after college as a research writer and an online blog contributor. She has now
joined the Aggregage team and is the Editor for several sites in our network, including Supply Chain
Brief, Logistics Brief, and B2B Marketing Zone.

4
kins International. Confidential Material. All Rights Reserved.
Agenda
a. What is VUCA?
b. What are the impacts of VUCA on today’s supply chains
and commerce?
c. How to address VUCA?
d. Takeaways

5
What is VUCA
a.Volatility:
1. The nature of change: A BUG STORY

6
What is VUCA
A BUG STORY
Changing =
Transforming =
Reinventing =
Ametaboly
Hemimetaboly
Holometaboly

7
What is VUCA
 CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT
Baby Ant Adult Ant
…Growth,
but no Change.
:
 TRANSFORMATION
Baby
Grasshopper
Adult
Grasshopper
…change in wings
and reproductive
organs:
 REINVENTION
Caterpillar Butterfly
Metamorphosis:
Reinvention, Totally
Different
:
Understanding Continuous Improvement, Transformation and Reinvention

8
What is VUCA
The Circle of Life for Companies
DISRUPTION
in product or
service
DISRUPTION
in business
model
Successful
Company
AMETABOLY
Continuous
Improvement:
Success continues
HEMIMETABOLY
Transformation for
Greater Success
HOLOMETABOLY
Reinvention for
Greater Success
Bankruptcy
Bankruptcy
Continuous
Improvement:
Ametaboly
Continuous
improvement:
Ametaboly
Transformation:
Hemimetaboly

9
What is VUCA
a.Volatility: The Nature and Dynamics of Change and The
Speed of Change
1. The nature of change
2. The Disruption Cycle

10
What is VUCA
Innovation
Entrepreneurship
DISRUPTOR!
Too Risky! Too
Different!
Boldness
Disruption of the
Status Quo
Incubation
Validation
New
Status
Quo
ESTABLISHED
FIRM
Risk Adverse
Profitable
Growth
and Value
Creation
Resistance
to Change
New Innovation
Courageous
Leadership
New Boldness
Professional
Management
The Disruption Cycle IS:

11
What is VUCA
Disruptive Innovation
• The Pursuit of the Disruption Cycle with Innovation &
Boldness.
• A high stakes game, with high rewards.
• Not a high-risk game; in fact, the certainty of high risk is
to NOT traverse the Disruption Cycle, but rather to be Risk
Averse and to embrace resistance to change.
• The process of changing the world an innovation, a
disruption at a time.

12
What is VUCA
a.Volatility
b.Uncertainty: The Lack of Predictability
1. These are the most uncertain times in the history of the world.
2. Uncertainty makes it impossible to make accurate predictions or
to define operating requirements.
3. Instead of developing optimal solutions, we should be
developing solutions that offer us a series of optional solutions.
4. Optionality vs Optimality

13
What is VUCA
a.Volatility
b.Uncertainty
c. Complexity: The Multiplex of Forces; The Confronting Issues
1. The increase in complexity of commerce from optimal single
channel design to SELLING ANYWHERE and need for unified
performance.
2. Uni-channel, Uni-logistics, Uni-marketing and Uni-technology.

14
What is VUCA
a.Volatility
b.Uncertainty
c. Complexity
d.Ambiguity: The Haziness of Reality, The Potential for Misreads
1. The Digital Imperative

15
What is VUCA
The Digital Imperative
• We are engaging in a new era of business:
• Digital Technology is changing all businesses
- New products
- New services
- New business models
Agriculture Industrial Digital

16
What is VUCA
The Digital Imperative
• It is essential that all organizations
vigorously pursue digital commerce.
• Today we have the opportunity to start
anew, to build an entirely new world

17
What is VUCA
a.Volatility
b.Uncertainty
c. Complexity
d.Ambiguity: The Haziness of Reality, The Potential for Misreads
1. The Digital Imperative
2. The Speed Imperative

18
What is VUCA
The Speed Imperative
• Today is the slowest day of the rest of your life.
• Innovation obsolesces is shorter than ever.
• Speed Supply Chain Perspectives
“If you’re not fast, your competition will be.”
“In a world where everything is moving so rapidly, simply being fast is not
enough: you have to be faster than anyone and everyone.”
“We need to move from making a decision when you have 90% of the information to
making a decision when you have 70% of the information.”
“Make not just high-quality decisions, but high-velocity decisions.”
—Adam
Friedman
—Jeff
Lerner
—McKinsey &
Company
—Jeff Bezos, Amazon Shareholders
Letter, 2017

19
Takeaways: The Beyond Belief Impacts of VUCA on Supply Chains and Commerce
a. To be successful today you must do well at Continuous Improvement, Transformation and Reinvention.
b. You either disrupt others or you will be disrupted: The Disruption Cycle Never Ends.
c. We need to pursue Optionality not Optimality.
d. We need to be able to SELL ANYWHERE via Uni-channel, Uni-logistics, Uni-marketing and Uni-technology.
e. It is essential that all organizations pursue Digital Commerce.
f. The pace of life is accelerating, you need to increase speed to win.

20
James A. Tompkins, Ph.D.
Chairman and CEO, Tompkins International
6870 Perry Creek Road
Raleigh, NC 27616
(919) 855-5501
jtompkins@tompkinsinc.com
Asst: Debbie Flynn
Contact Videos
What is Tompkins Robotics?
http://www.tompkinsinc.com/what-we-do/tompkins-robotics
Supply Chain Revolutions
Responding to Digital Disruptions
http://bit.do/supplychainrevolutions
Don’t Feed the Bears
https://www.tompkinsinc.com/en-us/Insight/Videos/dont-feed-the-bears
Resources
Initial Results with MonarchFx
https://www.tompkinsinc.com/en-us/Insight/Videos/initial-results-with-monarchfx
Anti-Brittle: Succeeding and Flourishing in These Uncertain and Volatile Times
https://www.tompkinsinc.com/en-us/Insight/Videos/anti-brittle-succeeding-and-flourishing-in-these-
uncertain-and-volatile-times
Websites
www.tompkinsinc.com
www.tompkinsfulfillment.com
www.tompkinsrobotics.com

Q&A
Emily Murphy
With: Moderated by:
Chairman and CEO at Tompkins International
Linkedin page: /in/jimtompkins1/
Twitter ID: @jimtompkins
Website: www.tompkinsinc.com
Jim Tompkins
Editor, Aggregage
Linkedin page: /in/Emily-millard-murphy/
Twitter ID: @scbrief
Website: www.supplychainbrief.com
https://www.supplychainbrief.com/webinar-series/trends-in-supply-chain/
https://www.logisticsbrief.com/webinar-series/trends-in-supply-chain/

Trends in Supply Chain: The Beyond Belief Impacts of VUCA on Supply Chains and Commerce

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