This report provide a detail analysis of India's Aug 2019 Auto sales Data.

1. AUTO SALES DATA ANALYSIS AUG-2019

2.  The auto sector continues its negative trajectory for the 10th month now due to depressed
consumer sentiment amid higher cost of ownership. Enhanced safety and emission norms
and increased insurance cost have hurt buyers’ enthusiasm. In the four-wheeler space,
demand for small cars took the biggest hit in August.
 In the backdrop of all these negatives, FM recently announced a deferral of the increase in
registration fees till June 2020. It also removed the ban imposed in 2014 on purchase of
new vehicles by government departments. The government also increased the rate of
depreciation to 30% for vehicles bought from now till March 31, 2020. Apart from this,
festival season and normal rainfall may bring in some demand in the consumer sector.
Auto Sales Aug’19..Downward Trend Continue..
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
268843 287166
245547 236533
221610
199534
195800
Auto sales Trends (in units)
Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19

3. Passenger Vehicles Sales Analysis
 PV demand trend remains weak with inquiries and conversion remaining weak for existing models,
though new launches are attracting good response.
 PV sales in July fell at the fastest pace in nearly two decades. The sales declines have triggered major
job cuts in India’s auto sector, with many companies forced to shut down factories for days and axe
shifts.
 All OEMs were impacted by the slowdown. Given the tough market conditions OEM focused on retail
sales and reducing dealer inventory before the start of festive season. This led to double digit YoY
decline in wholesale volumes.
131743
108210 109393
126676
105199
109272
71,657
52,270
57,186
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
Aug-18 Jul-19 Aug-19
Motorcycles Scooters Mopeds MoM YoY

4. Four-wheelers: Sales Volume Analysis
MARUTI SUZUKI PVs Sales Analysis
In Units Aug 2019 July 2019
Growth in
MoM%
Aug 2018
Growth in
YoY%
Mini 10,123 11,577 -12.6 35,895 -71.8
Compact 56,607 59,308 -4.6 71,364 -20.7
Mid-size 1,596 2,397 -33.4 7,002 -77.2
Passenger cars 68,326 73,282 -6.8 114,261 -40.2
UVs 18,522 15,178 22 17,971 3.1
Vans 8,658 9,814 -11.8 13,663 -36.6
Total domestic sales 95,506 98,274 -2.8 145,895 -34.5
LCV 1,555 1,732 -10.2 1,805 -13.9
Total exports 9,352 9,258 1 10,489 -10.8
Total Sales 106,413 109,264 -2.6 158,189 -32.7
 August retail sales are lower by 20% yoy for Arena outlets and 30% yoy for Nexa outlets. Weak
customer sentiment and increasing competitive intensity have impacted volumes.
 Brezza volumes have been notably impacted by competition from Hyundai Venue and Mahindra
XUV300. In addition, customers are uncertain about the company’s presence in the diesel segment,
resulting in lower volumes.
 New products – XL6, S-presso, Brezza petrol, Scross petrol, etc. are expected to support volumes in the
coming months. XL6 bookings have been below expectations.

5.  M&M is facing stiff competition from its peers in UV space, resulting into contraction in market share
to ~25%. This is after most of its models have failed to uphold. Despite three product launches
(Marazzo, Alturas & XUV3OO) in the past its UV segment reported volume de-growth of 10% YoY.
 M&M’s rural centric products (Bolero and Scorpio) have slowed down significantly.
 New Products: Bolero City Pik-Up and Mahindra eKUV100
 M&M hope’s that the overall buying sentiment will improve in the run-up to the festive season.
M&M will be ready with BS VI compliant petrol & diesel vehicles over the next 3-4 months.
MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA PVs Sales Analysis
19,758 16,831
13,507
17,892
16,003
13,037
1,866
828 470
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Aug-18 Jul-19 Aug-19
Passenger vehicles Utility vehicles Cars + vans MoM YoY

6. TATAMOTORS PVs
Sales
Growth in
MoM%
Growth in
YoY%
-30.2 -58%
 Tata Motors August retail sales has the worst sales month in over 10 years, due to demand weak for
cargo vehicles due to the slowdown in construction activity, surplus capacity with transporters and
lower production/dispatches by Steel/Cement plants in the state of Rajasthan.
 Transporters are witnessing lower utilization levels, with 30-50% reduction in fleet utilization.
 Their prime focus remains on the working capital rotation of the channel and their aim is to improve
the retail capability, till August 2019, 72 new sales outlets were added and 3500+ sales executives
were recruited.
 The recent launches like Harrier and upcoming launches like Altroz could turn the tide in favour of
Tata Motors. It will also launch cars like Harrier 7-seater, Hornbill micro-SUV and electric cars in the
coming months.
TATAMOTORS PVs Sales analysis
17,351
10,485
7,316
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
Passenger vehicles
Aug-18 Jul-19 Aug-19

7. Two-Wheelers Sales Volume Analysis
 2W sales, which derive close to half of their volume from rural areas, also witnessed a sharp decline in
volume YoY on account of the rural slowdown.
 As per our dealer checks discounts were at all time high. Even some of the dealers were offering
attractive schemes like Paytm cashback of INR 4,000-8,000 on purchase of scooters etc.
685,047
362923
330076
69,377
535,810
322210
265676
54,185
543,406
325300
275851
52,904
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
Hero Moto Corp Bajaj Auto TVS Motor Company Eicher Motors
Aug-18 Jul-19 Aug-19

8. HEROMOTOCORP
2W Sales
Growth in
MoM%
Growth in
YoY%
1.4 -20.7
 HEROMOTOCOP, world’s largest two-wheeler manufacturer, sales decline was marginally better than
our expectation, indicating continued slowdown in the rural segment, thereby, leading to production
rationalization to balance dealer inventories. Good monsoon distribution has led to a marginal uptick
in sales.
 The company’s Upcoming refresh/launch: Scooter ZIR150, - Nov 2019; Dare125 & Duet-E. – Dec 2019
685,047
535,810 543,406
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
Aug-18 Jul-19 Aug-19
HEROMOTOCORP 2W Sales analysis

9. BAJAJ AUTO 2W Sales
In Units MoM% YoY%
Two-wheeler 1.0 -10.4
 As per BAJAJ AUTO’s management decline in growth rate has been more severe in August because a
large part of the country was under heavy rains, which must have dampened sales.
 Its 2-W volumes declined due to weak sentiment & high channel inventory in the domestic market.
362923
322210
325300
300000
310000
320000
330000
340000
350000
360000
370000
Aug-18 Jul-19 Aug-19
BAJAJ AUTO 2W Sales analysis

10.  TVS MOTORS’s both, 2W sales were below expectations. No discounts are being offered in TVS
products. Peers such as Honda and Hero are offering discounts in form of free accessories, Paytm
cashback, lower interest rates, lower down-payment, etc. Mopeds continued to drag overall
performance at TVS motors, continued their downward trend, registering double-digit decline
 New Launches: TVS Zeppelin, TVS Creon
 Dealer inventory stands at ~30 days. However, most TVS dealers have higher inventory days at 40-50.
131743
108210 109393
126676
105199
109272
71,657
52,270
57,186
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
Aug-18 Jul-19 Aug-19
Motorcycles Scooters Mopeds MoM YoY
TVS MOTORS 2W Sales analysis

11. EICHER MOTORS 2W Sales
In Units MoM% YoY%
Total Domestic -10.7 -26.6
Exports 53.6 142.6
 Eicher Motors owned Royal Enfield volumes de-grew for the 10th consecutive month on YoY basis.
Royal Enfield has revised its studio store expansion plans from 350 to 500 stores (of which 250 outlets
would be opened within month & balance by Diwali) for FY20E.
 Royal Enfield posted a decline led by 32% YoY decline in the 350cc segment, while higher cc segment
posted 124% YoY growth, led by good traction for Twins in the international markets
 Eicher Motors' new Bullet 350cc motorcycle is receiving positive feedback due to lower pricing
(~Rs10,000 cheaper than existing Bullet) and new colour schemes. Launch of Bullet 350X and new 250
smaller format stores to support volumes.
67,001
2,062
69,063
55,082
3,257
58,339
49,182
5,003
54,185
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
Total Domestic Exports Total Sales
Aug-18 Jul-19 Aug-19
EICHER MOTORS 2W Sales analysis

12. Commercial Vehicles Sales Analysis
Companies MoM%
YoY%
Tata Motors CV -2.8 -45.2
M&M - CV -2.8 -21.7
VE Commercial Vehicles -13.5 -41.8
SML Isuzu -21 -9
Atul Auto 12.5 -16.9
Ashok Leyland -15.5 -46.9
 The commercial vehicle segment continued to witness a sharp slowdown. As per major OEMs,
increase in available tonnage after new axle load norms and poor freight availability due to economic
slowdown is impacting the utilization of existing fleet and limiting fresh purchases.
 MHCV truck sales remained affected by slowing economy, increased capacity post axle load norm
revision along with poor freight availability and slowdown in execution of infrastructure projects.
 We believe that the additional 15% depreciation provided for vehicles acquired before 31Mar’20 is
likely to help pre-buy. However, industry performance during FY20 remains dependent upon pick-up
in core activities, BS6 cost-up and the related extent of pre-buy.
39,859
25,615
5,948
744
4,430
17,386
22,453
20,643
4,001
857
3,272
10,927
21,824
20,057
3,462
677 3,681
9231
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Tata Motors
CV
M&M - CV VE Commercial
Vehicles
SML Isuzu Atul Auto Ashok Leyland
Aug-18 Jul-19 Aug-19

13. TATAMOTORS CV Sales
In Units MoM% YoY%
CVs 1.3 -42.3
M & M CV Sales
In Units MoM% YoY%
Commercial
vehicles
-2.6 -17.2
LCV < 3.5T 0.1 -16.4
Other CVs -28.5 -27
TATA MOTORS’s and M&M’s sales volume decline led by weak MHCV sales, largely driven by economic
slowdown, lower freight availability and excess carrying capacity created post axle load norm revision.
Operators are facing viability challenges due to low freight availability and declining freight rates.
45,087
25,663 26,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Aug-18 Jul-19 Aug-19
TATAMOTORS CV Sales analysis
19,284
17,785
1,499
16,394
14,863
1,531
15,969
14,874
1,095
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Commercial vehicles LCV < 3.5T Other CVs
Aug-18 Jul-19 Aug-19
M & M CV Sales

14. ASHOK LEYLAND CV Sales
In Units MoM% YoY%
MHCV -20.4 -59.3
LCV -7.7 -8.2
Total Sales -15.5 -46.9
 Movement of truck fleets got impacted by floods in several states, which, in turn, cut the arrival of
fruits and vegetables in the Agricultural Produce Market Committees (APMCs). At the same time,
factory gates at most of the industrial clusters turned in 25 to 30% lesser goods.
 The company said on September 3 that its heavy-duty trucks range had been upgraded to meet BS-VI
emission norms, which come into force from April 1, 2020. The company has become the first Indian
original equipment manufacturer to meet BS-VI norms across its full range of heavy-duty trucks with
a gross vehicle weight of 16.2 tonne and above, the Hinduja group flagship said in a statement.
13,158
4228
17,386
6,722
4,205
10,927
5,349
3,882
9231
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
MHCV LCV Total Sales
Aug-18 Jul-19 Aug-19
ASHOK LEYLAND CV Sales analysis

15. Tractor Segment Sales Analysis
In Units MoM% YoY%
M&M -25.9 -16.7
Escorts -17 -16.1
 After posting three years of strong positive growth, tractor industry is witnessing sluggishness in
sales, which is further exacerbated by weak rural income. Despite the slowdown in sales, monsoon
spread and sowing pattern of Kharif has improved. Usually Sep-Oct-Nov period witnesses healthy
tractor sales. Wholesales during the next 3 months will be a key monitorable.
 M&M tractor sales were far below estimates, due to sluggish demand on account of rural stress,
floods in western and southern parts of India. However, the company is hopeful of better festive
season on the back of improved monsoon and sowing pattern of Kharif crop.
 ESCORTS reported decline in volumes for the 6th consecutive month on YoY basis. Company's
total tractor sales in the first five months of the current financial year stood at 29,946 units,
witnessing 14.2 per cent de-growth, as compared to 34,916 units in the same period last year.
17,785
4,812
9,992
4,860
14,817
4,035
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
M&M Escorts
Aug-18 Jul-19 Aug-19

16. 3W Sales % Chg
In Units
Growth
in
MoM%
Growth
in
YoY%
M&M 15.0 1.6
BAJAJ AUTO 9.1 -12.7
TVS MOTORS 11.1 5.9
Three Wheelers Sales Analysis
3W sales have reported a robust performance in exports due to rapidly transform the overall EV
adoption rate in the country and the surging demand for three-wheelers produced in India in contrast
to domestic sales. This could be possible primarily due to enormous demand for the Indian three-
wheelers in Asian and African regions. Bajaj Auto's 3W volume declined due to weak sales in Egypt.
5,289
74,169
13,141
92,599
4,674
59,320
13,786
77,780
5,373
64,726
14,604
84,703
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
M&M BAJAJ AUTO TVS MOTORS Total 3W Sales
Aug-18 Jul-19 Aug-19

17. Key measures announced by the Finance Minister :
• A BS4 vehicle purchased till 31/3/20 will remain operational for its entire period of
registration (15 years).
• Revision of one-time registration fees is deferred till Jun’20.
• The government announced additional 15% depreciation (over & above normal 15%) on
all vehicles acquired from now till 31st Mar’20.
• Both EVs and ICEs will continue to be registered. The government’s focus will be on setting
up of infrastructure for development of ancillaries/components, including batteries for
exports
• To boost demand, the government shall lift the ban on purchase of new vehicles for
replacing all old vehicles by the government departments.
• Various measures including scrappage policy are under consideration.
We expect volumes to remain weak in CVs, PVs and 2Ws, due to the high base, weak
economic conditions, increase in vehicle prices, and funding issues but we are also hopeful
that the recently announced measures can improve consumer sentiments that could lead to
uptick in demand on the festive season and a pre-buying ahead of the implementation of
BSVI emission norms, which take effect on 1st Apr’20.

18. Disclaimer
Prepared By:
Research Associate: Nawanit Kumar Pandey
Email ID: nawanitpandey@adroitfinancial.com
Phone Number: 0120-4550300*270/388
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