“Welcome to the latest Market Insight Overview from Cox Automotive.  Every month, we provide automotive industry professionals with unique intelligence, supported by invaluable insight and market sentiment from our customers, that goes beyond the headlines to uncover what’s driving the new and used car sectors from wholesale, retail and funding perspectives. We hope our holistic analysis arms you with the essential knowledge needed to navigate the fast-paced, ever-changing automotive market.” PHILIP NOTHARD Customer Insight & Strategy Director - UK

1. Market Insight Overview
September 2019
P H I L I P N O T H A R D
C u s t o m e r I n s i g h t & S t r a t e g y D i r e c t o r - U K

2. Cox Automotive
Market Overview
“Welcome to the latest Market Insight Overview from Cox Automotive.
Every month, we provide automotive industry professionals with
unique intelligence, supported by invaluable insight and market
sentiment from our customers, that goes beyond the headlines to
uncover what’s driving the new and used car sectors from
wholesale, retail and funding perspectives. We hope our holistic
analysis arms you with the essential knowledge needed to
navigate the fast-paced, ever-changing automotive market.”
PHILIP NOTHARD
Customer Insight & Strategy Director - UK

3. Agenda
• Retail
• Wholesale
• Funding
• Outlook

4. RETAIL

5. Retail
September delivered ‘modest’ 1.3% registration growth. Noteworthy combining August & September over
the 3 years, 2019 Aug/Sept increased 0.7% (2,900 units) whilst comparing with 2017 the result was -13.3%
(-66,775 units)
45%
36% 29% 44% 35% 30%
30%
43%
32%
26% 31% 29%
44%
32% 28%
43%
32% 26% 43% 32% 26% 40% 30% 26%
40%
29% 23% 39% 32% 38% 32% 38% 30%
51%
59% 64%
52% 61% 65%
65%
53%
63%
68% 64% 65%
52% 62%
66%
53%
62%
67%
52% 62%
66%
55% 62% 64%
55%
64% 66%
56%
61%
57% 61% 57%
64%
4%
6% 7%
4% 4% 6%
6%
4%
5%
6%
6% 6%
4% 6%
7%
4%
7%
7%
6% 7% 8%
5%
8% 10%
5%
7% 12%
5% 7%
5% 7% 6% 6%
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2019 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018
January February March April May June July August September October November December
Registrationvolumes
New Registrations - fuel type % share
Diesel Petrol AFV

6. Retail
UK Consumer Confidence improves two points to -12 for September 2019 on the run-up to October 31st,
albeit 3 points lower than the -9 in September 2018
-5 -6 -6 -7 -5 -10 -12 -10 -9 -10 -12 -13 -9 -10 -7 -9 -7 -9 -10 -7 -9 -10 -13 -14 -14 -13 -13 -13 -10 -13 -11 -14 -12
2.9%
-0.3%
8.4%
-19.8%
-8.5%
-4.8%
-9.3%
-6.4%
-9.3%
-4.6%-5.0%
-14.4%
-6.3%
-2.8%
-15.7%
10.4%
3.4%
-3.5%
1.2%
23.1%
-20.5%
-2.9%-3.0%
-5.5%
-1.6%
1.4%
-3.4%-4.1%-4.6%-4.9%-4.1%
-1.6%
1.3%
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
(16)
(14)
(12)
(10)
(8)
(6)
(4)
(2)
0
Jan-
17
Feb-
17
Mar-
17
Apr-
17
May-
17
Jun-
17
Jul-
17
Aug-
17
Sep-
17
Oct-
17
Nov-
17
Dec-
17
Jan-
18
Feb-
18
Mar-
18
Apr-
18
May-
18
Jun-
18
Jul-
18
Aug-
18
Sep-
18
Oct-
18
Nov-
18
Dec-
18
Jan-
19
Feb-
19
Mar-
19
Apr-
19
May-
19
Jun-
19
Jul-
19
Aug-
19
Sep-
19
NewCarRegistrations(%YoY)
ConsumerConfidence
Consumer Confidence Index vs. New Vehicle Registrations
Consumer confidence index new vehicle registrations

7. Retail
62% of dealers reported that retained margins had declined Year-on-Year. The Modix survey* also revealed a
very mixed picture on demand, with just under half of dealers reporting that demand had fallen YoY, while
39% said it had stayed the same, and 15% saw an improvement
*State of the market dealer survey September ‘19
15%
30%
22%
15%
15%
22%
41%
27%
62%
30%
46%
41%
44%
43%
16%
55%
39%
38%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Physical Footfall activity compared to last year?
On-line activity compared to last year?
Retained margins compared to last year?
Finance penetration compared to last year?
Retail/consumer demand compared to last year?
Stock availability compared to last year?
Increased/Better Declined/Worse About the same

8. Dealers* were upbeat about used car sales, with 80% confirming that overage stock was the same or lower
than last year, while 86% reported that days in stock had reduced or stayed the same
*State of the market dealer survey September ‘19
23%
31%
14%
20%
40%
23%
47%
49%
37%
46%
39%
31%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
New Cars - Consignment stock
New Cars - Overage
Used Cars - Days in stock
Used Cars - Overage
Increased Decreased About the same
Retail

9. 76% of dealers cited stability or improvement over the economic condition over the coming months whilst half
are anticipating little or no change to sourcing stock over the coming months in Q4, as indicated in the
September Monthly Market Survey*
*State of the market dealer survey September ‘19
19%
24%
57%
What are your expectations for economic conditions over
the coming months?
(as a proxy for demand)
Improving Declining About the same
24%
24%
52%
What are your expectations for sourcing used vehicles
over the coming months?
(as a proxy for supply)
Improving Declining About the same
Retail

10. RETAIL
• September was a difficult month for the retail sector as dealers looked to the used car market to off-set challenges in
new
• A lot of influences have come together to create a perfect storm in the new car market. Uncertainty around Brexit has
created nervousness among OEMs and fleets, while the impending introduction of CAFÉ (Corporate Average Fuel
Economy) targets will see manufacturers hold back some of their lower emission vehicles
• The general consensus is that September started well but the second half of the month was weaker
• Order banks are growing for new cars, without confirmation of delivery in some cases. European manufacturers are
preparing for worst-case scenario on Brexit and preparing price lists that include tariffs
• Company cars are sticking to the usual treadmill without much in the way of extensions or early terminations beyond
normal levels
Summary

11. WHOLESALE

12. Wholesale
Average price
£5,679
+0.3% MoM
Average age
86months
+1.3% MoM
Average mileage
64,434
+1.3% MoM
Manheim figures reveal that average age and mileage increased slightly month-on-month (up 1.3%), while the
average price held steady at £5,679 (up 0.3%)

13. Wholesale
Wholesale stock profiles in September show an increase in age and mileage for the second consecutive month,
following a year’s low in June and July
52,000
54,000
56,000
58,000
60,000
62,000
64,000
66,000
68,000
70,000
72,000
68
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19
AverageMileage
AverageAge(months)
Wholesale ave. Age & Mileage
Ave. Age (mths) Ave. Mileage

14. Wholesale
85% of dealers reported that time taken to complete reconditioning work is the biggest delaying factor in getting a
vehicle on sale, according to the results of Manheim’s latest dealer sentiment survey*
*State of the market dealer survey August ‘19
19%
42%
23%
6%
10%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
0 - 2 days
3 - 4 days
5 - 6 days
7 - 8 days
9+ days
On average, how many days does it take to get a newly sourced vehicle listed for sale?

15. Wholesale
Diesel
Wholesale Used Prices by Fuel Type
£6,945
-14.3% YoY
£4,354
-8.7% YoY
£12,511
-15.3% YoY
£12,099
34.1% YoY*
*EV £/% movements relative to lower volumes observed vs. ICE vehicles
Diesel Hybrid Electric*Petrol
Data from Manheim reveals a dip in fuel prices for all categories except electric when compared to the same
month last year

16. Wholesale
The top 6 positions remain static for the most vehicles sold in wholesale* for September, whilst the Nissan
Qashqai drops from 7th to 10th, BMW 3 Series into 7th and Audi A3 up to ninth place
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Ford
Fiesta
Ford
Focus
Vauxhall
Corsa
Vauxhall
Astra
Fiat
500
Volkswagen
Golf
BMW
3 Series
Mercedes-Benz
C Class
Audi
A3
Nissan
Qashqai
*Manheim wholesale volumes all plates and mileages – September ‘19

17. WHOLESALE
Summary
• Figures indicate an uplift in demand for electric vehicles, but the relatively low volume of electric vehicles, when
compared to other fuel types, means that higher percentage swings are likely
• Manheim, a leading provider of integrated products and services for the vehicle remarketing sector, saw more than
87% of cars sell first time across the month, with most achieving or exceeding the guide price
• A number of factors have combined to reduce the level of stock in the wholesale market throughout August and
September. Low new-car sales, long lead-times, and scrappage schemes from some manufacturers have reduced
part-exchange volumes, and dealers are choosing to retail those that they take indirectly
• Wholesale demand exceeded supply, putting pressure on retailer’s margin targets and forcing dealers to sell decent
part-exchanges
• Average fleet car price held steady MoM despite a +35% increase in average mileage

18. FUNDING

19. Funding
NextGear Capital, the leading provider of wholesale stock funding, also saw average age and mileage hold
relatively steady but reported an average price increase of 6% MoM to £7,762
Sept ‘17
£6,990
Sept ‘18
£7,703
Sept ‘19
£7,762
£6,000
£6,500
£7,000
£7,500
£8,000
£8,500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average Cost of Unit (£)
2017 2018 2019

20. Funding
The average number of days in stock increased to 63.3 (60.8 August 2019 and 59 September 2018),
increasing the average 61.7 days during 2019
Sept ‘17
57.5
Sept ‘18
59.0
Sept ‘19
63.3
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average Holding Days
2017 2018 2019

21. Funding
The average age and mileage increase marginally YoY in line with data observed through the
wholesale sector. As mileage rises to 60,277 for vehicles bought using the NextGear stock funding
plan. It also saw the average age of its funded units increase from 5.8 in 2018 to 6.1 years
September 2018
5.8 years
Ave. Age Funded
59,627
Ave. Mileage
September 2019
6.1 years
Ave. Age Funded
60,277
Ave. Mileage

22. OUTLOOK

23. Retail Outlook
Our viewpoint – 2019 the retail market
Dealers investing in PPC
advertising to drive sales
as consumers turn to
online for their next
vehicle
Increasing appetite for
Manufacturers and
Dealers to embrace
eCommerce
Demand grows for
advanced vehicle
imagery solutions to
drive online buyer
confidence

24. Wholesale Outlook
Our viewpoint – 2019 the wholesale market
Demand for retail-ready
stock will drive efficiencies in
vehicle services, assisted by
enhanced imagery
Buyers will expect increased
transparency to drive stock
confidence, leading to more
detailed vehicle descriptions
and assurance checks
An increasingly agnostic
approach to physical and
digital sales streams will
emerge to complement
changing buyer behaviours

25. Funding Outlook
Our viewpoint – 2019 the funding market
A strong appetite for growth
means cash flow remains a
priority for dealers
Ease and flexibility
remains key for dealers
An increased focus on
digital integration is helping
dealers to purchase stock
hassle free from a variety
of sources

26. PHILIP NOTHARD
Customer Insight & Strategy Director – UK
Philip.Nothard@CoxAuto.co.uk
@PhilipN_Auto
@coxautomotiveUK
THANK YOU
/PhilipNothard
/CoxAutomotiveUK
/philipnothard
/cox-automotive-uk