AFS Empowers SunnyD - Webinar Sept 2016
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Using AFS TPM to Predict Lift Factors to Maximize Trade Spend - Predictive Modeling using Nielsen Data. WATCH NOW! http://www.afsi.com/predictive-modeling-sunnyd-using-nielsen-data-webinar/
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AFS Empowers SunnyD - Webinar Sept 2016
- 1. AFS Empowers SunnyD Using AFS TPM to Predict Lift Factors to Maximize Trade Spend - Predictive Modeling using Nielsen Data Joel Cartwright & Chris Miller
- 2. AFS TECHNOLOGIES WEBINAR AFS TECHNOLOGIES Joel Cartwright, Director Product Management, TPM Retail 20 years plus in Consumer Packaged Goods: Finance/Accounting, Sales Operations • Sara Lee Foods US • Sunny Delight Beverage • Kimberly Clark MEI TPM Solutions, IBM Demand Tec, AFS Technologies Introductions SUNNY D Chris Miller, Director Revenue Management My mission is if you give people the right tools and data, you can make better decisions. Having a good understanding across all functions and departments is key to making those better decisions.
- 3. Sunny Delight Beverages, Co Overview Sunny Delight Beverages Co. is a leading producer of juice-based drinks in North America, headquartered in Cincinnati Ohio. It currently produces and markets 7 brands: • SunnyD • Elations glucosamine and chondroitin • Dietary supplement • Fruit2O flavored waters • Veryfine juices • Fruit smoothies • Crystal Light bottled beverages
- 4. Overview of AFS/Nielsen Relationship The integration between AFS TPM Retail and Nielsen, based on web services, enables AFS customers to have a cost-effective TPO system integrated as part of their TPM solution so they can quickly run their trade plans against models as part of their annual planning and to respond to new retailer requests. Nielsen’s modeling service offers hundreds of models that represent almost every consumer goods product sold today.
- 5. Business Situation: Account v. Business Managers SunnyD has set up their sales force to be Account Managers, to basically run as a business versus just selling to accounts. • Contribution Objective: Essentially the account manager’s had to become business, as their objectives were based on contribution not top line sales. As such, product mix and effective trade spend were a must. They needed a simplistic approach to predict the lift of a promotion/tactic, to get the most out of their trade dollars. • Forecast Accuracy: SunnyD is a very “Lean” and optimal supply chain efficiency focused company. Coinciding to Contribution Objectives, forecast accuracy is an objective measure. Providing the business manager another “litmus” test when inputting incremental volume forecast for a promotion, and having the lift factor drive the forecast within the TPM tool, provided this component.
- 6. Challenges: What did they want to do but couldn’t and what were the repercussions? • Challenge: They could not effectively align the promotion information as it exists in the TPM tool, to the pricing studies, and in turn align the TPM tool on what the pricing studies. • Repercussion: Not utilizing the costly studies to what was deployed as a price or tactic in the TPM tool. Which in turn SunnyD was paying for price points and tactics which were not driving profitable volume. • Challenge: Provide the business managers in the field a simplistic way to do predictive analytics, without having to train on a new application, and input the result in the TPM tool. Provide SunnyD a cost effective, low cost/low risk, minimal IT resource requirements to have predictive analytics. • Repercussion: Inability to effectively allow business managers to analyze and understand variations to price and tactics which have never occurred in the past, to drive contribution.
- 7. Why did SunnyD go with AFS/Nielsen predictive analytics? Sunny Delight was utilizing AC Nielsen to do promotion lift modeling outside of the TPM tool, in order to improve forecast accuracy on incremental volume of an event. In addition, to see the impact of volume, at different promoted price points. In turn they would take the modeled lift factor and compare and/or input the modeled lift factor as the incremental volume forecast. Sunny Delight came to the conclusion, “why cant these be in one tool”. Concept born!
- 8. How it Works Contacting the AC Nielsen Modeling Engine
- 9. Optimization Request from TPM: Web Services Takes over Web Services AR 7: Integration points * Single level hierarchy export * FTP/FTPS DEX: XML, CVS, TXT * Configured Performance Types One time data mapping, completed during client implementation. Changes/additions are loaded as a full hierarchy update. TPM V4: Integration points * Multi level hierarchy export * AFS Gateway FTP/FTPS , CVS, * Configured Performance Types Data Points Sent: • Everyday Retail Price • ACV %’ • Date Range • Sale Price • Tactic • Customer • Product Data Points Returned: • Modeled Lift Factor Price • (Future) Base • (Future) Lift By Tactic
- 10. What were the initial results? • Given that this new capability is embedded holistically within the TPM tool – do you believe this efficiency saves time and resources vs. previous activity around inputs to lift assumptions? • Do you find the new PA closer to actuals? • Can you provide an improvement rate toward that accuracy?
- 11. What were the initial results? Continued… • One of the challenges listed was the fact that business managers in the field needed to business managers to analyze and understand variations to price and tactics. Can you talk to that and expand on why that was needed? • What interested SunnyD to engage with the AFS/Nielsen predictive analytics? • How challenging was it to implement and start using the AFS/Nielsen solution and was there a steep learning curve?
- 12. Benefits (Low cost, low risk and easy to use) • SunnyD has been utilizing the capability since April 2016. Initially it was thought to be difficult to see the overall impact to the proof of concept customer. However, they have reviewed the actual incremental volume for the promotions which used the predicted incremental volume, and found the accuracy to be VERY close to the actual outcome. • Based on the accuracy outcome, the ease of use, low risk and low cost. They want to invest in the modeling capability for other customers and products.
- 13. What’s Next? SunnyD: Expand the models to encompass other customers, products, tactics. AFS and Nielsen: Expand the relationship and capability to encompass Base Volume modeling in the TPM tool.
- 15. AFS TECHNOLOGIES WEBINAR Joel Cartwright Director of Product Development for Trade Promotion Management Retail Contact: Joel.Cartwright@afsi.com | t: (602) 522-8282 Contact Details Linkedin AFS TPM Group https://www.linkedin.com/groups/8449865
- 16. AFS Technologies (AFS) is a global provider of software solutions purpose-built for consumer goods companies. We are committed to generating improved outcomes at the point of purchase coupled with generating efficiencies in trade spend, retail execution and supply chain. We serve more than 1,000 customers of all sizes, in more than 50 countries, with innovative and configurable solutions that are proven to optimize your potential with automated processes, improved productivity and rapid time to value. To learn more about AFS, visit www.afsi.com. About AFS Technologies
- 17. Thank You!
Editor's Notes
- Customer needs vary based on the customer type. Sure there are similarities across the spectrum, breadth, quality, pricing are all standard – but the differences come to light when you look at the type of the operation. Retail and C-Stores need shelf tags, Acute and long term health care need strict regulatory compliance, Quick serve needs drop ships and nearly all of these groups are having to adjust to new regulations for transparency and detailed nutritional content. The other thing they all have in common ins a lack of time. Becoming more efficient in the sales call includes shifting some tasks to the customer – providing a self service portal that ultimately provides more time for sales. AGENDA: Review - timeline What is currently trending Paradigm shift in customer interaction Customer data needs Web based tools Mobility ROI Cost Reduction Questions
- Just a quick review of how we got where we are today: Prior to the 80’s – paper based journals and spreadsheets PC’s work there way into mainstream business in the late 80 and early 90’s. At the same time there is an explosion of software development going on converting paper into bytes The PDA takes mobility to new levels as the industry is now seeing a shift where consumer electronics are staring to integrate with enterprise environments Late 2007 – the iPhone hits , followed by the tablet and the blending of consumer and enterprise environments is now standard and the INTERNET OF THINGS IS ALREADY SHOWING HOW THINGS ARE GOING TO BE – SAMSUNG NEW REFRIGERATOR
- What we are going to continue to see is that the innovation this is created for the consumers will continue to lead the path for Enterprise solutions that want to connect with their customers needs. While the lifespan of the PDA was short lived – it did bring about one realization – we crave data and demand to have it in a mobile format. When smartphones and tablets hit the market – it was the single fastest adoption of technology the world had ever seen. Faster than electricity, faster than the lightbulb – even quicker than TV. Why? – It comes down to providing the services that create dependency. Not only could these devices make calls – but they could access the internet and also applications designed to consume the data and present it in formats that are easy to use. With the quick adoption came the demand to use our devices in Enterprise environments – basically taking consumer devices and forcing business to take stock in their capabilities. It wasn’t very long after that purpose built enterprise applications were being crafted to support the adoption of these devices. Mobility is a huge enabler with regards to dependency. By leveraging solutions at the point where it is critical to provide accurate information is essential in the best use cases for the promotion of mobility. Eliminating the redundant, often error prone, data re-entry methods. The most popular devices are the units that deliver more than just a single function. They are the ones that extend our capabilities by providing access to tools and data that drive our business.
- Multipole systems for daily engagement Not so long ago you could only browse the net with a PC. Now its integration is in so many consumer devices – it has quickly become the norm to have access in whatever we need – instant access. - PC, Web, Mobile & IoT Vending service suppliers have been integrating for many year's. Inventory is now managed through tablet applications. Servers – Manage PC’s – Create Phones, Tablets - CONSUME
- Prior to the spread of the internet – engaging customers with services typically meant significant capital investments to leverage a leading position. Many chose to provide systems to their customers for a guaranteed position – spoken or unspoken. Soon they realized that the costs related to the systems they deployed included training on the OS as well as supporting many users as the technology was new (printers, monitors, etc) – it was the dawn of the IT Department for many distributors. By the time the internet came about society was computer savvy and hungry for information. Everyone had PC to access the internet and the WWW allowed B2C to flourish. Companies investing in internet services that provided customer self service models quickly regained profits and customer penetration as a result of shifting the order process to the customer and allowing the sales person to regain the selling time that had been lost in prior years. Customers gravitated to the wealth of capabilities that they had to previously rely on either the DSR or the customer service agent for resolving (credits, RMS,etc.) With everyone getting on to the internet, we became even more hungry for information, but it had to be more than just accessing the information. Customers now have an expectation that gaining access to the information is secondary to the way the information is presented to the user. Efficiency temporarily lost to aesthetics. Then – there was Mobility – Instant access to everything. Applications that not only delivered the data we craved, but provides a user friendly experience with little or no training required – at any moment in any place – typically on a BYOD platform - a new bar has been set for the way we delivery services to our customers.
- Well I don’t think anyone is asking to have their walk-in coolers visually integrated, yet. Start with the basics needs – wider audience – bigger catch Best solution will be able to promote growth and dependency – hold DSR accountable – incentifying them to move accounts over and manages from laptop RFP & RFI can provide insight to needs No onsite installation of any programs on their systems or network Internet based order entry Application based order entry Mobility Accuracy – single database – 1 version of the truth THE PURPOSE IS TO REFINE INTRODUCE EFFICIENCY TO THE SALES PROCESS. BY USING PURPOSE BUILT SOLUTIONS YOUR BUSINESS AGILITY IS ENHANCED. TYPICAL SALES CALL IS 28 MINUTES – 80% IS ORDER TAKING – LEAVES LESS THAN 6 MINUTES TO SELL, COLLECT AND SERVICE THE ACCOUNT. How do purpose built solutions CREATE EFFICIENCY in the sales Process?
- Well I don’t think anyone is asking to have their walk-in coolers visually integrated, yet. Start with the basics needs – wider audience – bigger catch Best solution will be able to promote growth and dependency – hold DSR accountable – incentifying them to move accounts over and manages from laptop RFP & RFI can provide insight to needs No onsite installation of any programs on their systems or network Internet based order entry Application based order entry Mobility Accuracy – single database – 1 version of the truth THE PURPOSE IS TO REFINE INTRODUCE EFFICIENCY TO THE SALES PROCESS. BY USING PURPOSE BUILT SOLUTIONS YOUR BUSINESS AGILITY IS ENHANCED. TYPICAL SALES CALL IS 28 MINUTES – 80% IS ORDER TAKING – LEAVES LESS THAN 6 MINUTES TO SELL, COLLECT AND SERVICE THE ACCOUNT. How do purpose built solutions CREATE EFFICIENCY in the sales Process?
- Focus on Self Service, Same database and dependency features Inventory: Editor Valuation Comparison Movement Location Inquiry A/R Inquiry – Specific A/R Inquiry Consolidated Product Inquiry Complete self service based on the rules and rights you assign to users: Order Entry A/R Credit/RMA Self Service, Same database and dependency features
- Time in training and the costs associated with attrition