CCAFS Kaffrine forecast-coraf_science week

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CCAFS Kaffrine forecast-coraf_science week

  1. 1. CLIMATE RISK MANGEMENT IN WEST AFRICA communicating probabilistic seasonal forecasting toimprove farmers’ management decision in Kaffrine, Senegal Ousmane Ndiaye, ANACIM Robert Zougmoré, CCAFS
  2. 2. “ The impact of climate change will fall disproportionately onthe world’s poorest countries, many of them here in Africa. ’Poor people already live on the front lines of pollution, disaster,and the degradation of resources and land. For them,adaptation is a matter of sheer survival ” Kofi Annan Burkina, flooding 2009, courtesy by Guillaume
  3. 3. CLIMATE IMPACTS Rain-fed agriculture : shift in seasonality, total, onset, distribution (food security, population) climate related disease : vector born diseases and water related diseases hydropower management : dam, river flow, flood management in a rapid and unplanned urbanization
  4. 4. Climate information for development Risk associated with climate variability Better management using climate information Reduce vulnerability : poverty, health, hunger, … Learning process : decision making tool
  5. 5. Many efforts made on climate research PRESANOR PRES-AO (11) GHACOF (22) PRES-AC (3) SARCOF (11) Climate Information for Public Health Summer Institute, IRI, June 2009
  6. 6. EXAMPLE OF CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT IN KAFFRINE, SENEGAL
  7. 7. Building a team of stakeholders:multi-disciplinary approach Ministry of agriculture extensions (SDDR, 5 participants) Volunteers from World Vision (WV, 5) Agricultural advisers (ANCAR, 5) National agricultural research institute (ISRA, 1) National Farmers Union (Japandoo, 15) Organization of women producers (3) Peanuts-Seed producers Cooperation 2) Senegalese National Weather Agency (ANAMS, 5) Individual farmers (13)
  8. 8. Building trust for a long partnership Building on local knowledge: High humidity and high temperatures can explain some of their indicators “Stronger monsoon” « When the wind is changing direction to fetch the rain » Establishing common ground : Doing quite the same thing BUT Better observing system More reliable storage capacity (use of numbers, maps, computers, …)
  9. 9. SETTING THE STAGEUsing historical forecast (memory):Identify wet and dry yearsIntroduce normal yearProbability shift toward category : RISKLink to the crop, harvestStrategies and decision :
  10. 10. “Knowledge should precede action” farmer in kaffrineteam work : farmers, climatologist, World Vision, Agriculture expert, sociologist
  11. 11. TRAINING AND DISCUSSIONS
  12. 12. TALKING THE SAME LANGUAGE :“WHAT 1 MM OF RAIN MEANS”
  13. 13. WHAT WOULD YOU DO DIFFERENTLY IF YOU’VE FORSEEN A DRY YEAR• Crop requiring less water• Short-cycle variety• Bet on the lowest rainfall threshold observed in the past• Reduce cultivated area in the farm
  14. 14. Seasonal forecast communicated tofarmers
  15. 15. EVALUATION : FORECAST AND PROCESSPARTICIPANTS :33 paysans, services techniques locaux (eaux et forets, ANCAR,Agriculture, Vision Mondiale, ), organisations paysannes (JAPANDO,FONGS, …)THREE GROUPS :1.17 received and used somehow the seasonal forecast2.03 received but didn’t used it3.13 never seen or heard of the seasonal forecastQUESTIONS ASKED1. What made you take a different strategy last year : say anything2. Problems encountered ?3. Recommandations ?
  16. 16. WHAT WE LEARNT Partnership and trust (social dimension) Invest on the long term and multi-disciplinary(complex and complicate) Communication, communication,communication (content, format, means,medium) Ideally has a package : Climate forecast : seasonal and onset Opportunity : access to fund (wet forecast) Alternative : index insurance (dry forecast)
  17. 17. THANK YOU

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