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Drought Monitoring and Assessment in South Asia

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Presentation by Vladimir Smakhtin & Giriraj Amarnath at the Advisory Committee meeting of the Integrated Drought Management Program held in Geneva, 9 September, 2014.

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Drought Monitoring and Assessment in South Asia

  1. 1. DROUGHT MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT IN SOUTH ASIA Vladimir Smakhtin, Giriraj Amarnath International Water Management Institute (IWMI), Sri Lanka Frederik Pischke WMO-GWP, Switzerland AC-MC Meetings of the WMO-GWP Integrated Drought Monitoring Program Geneva, 9 September, 2014
  2. 2. PREVIOUS ONLINE DMS – South West Asia MODIS data - 0.5 by 0.5 km, every 8 days, from 2000 onwards NDVI deviation map for a District Time Series graph Drought free zone Mild Drought zone Severe Drought zone
  3. 3. SOUTH ASIA DROUGHT MONITORING SYSTEM (DMS): OVERVIEW  Builds on IWMI’s expertise and previous DMS in SW Asia  Will feature historical and near-real time weekly high-spatial resolution drought severity maps  Integrates remote sensing and ground truth data (vegetation indices, rainfall data, soil information, hydrological data)  Supports regionally coordinated drought mitigation efforts that can be further tailored to analysis at the national level  Will be part of regional, national and local decision making – working with WMO partners and GWP South Asia as well as the Water Partnerships in Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka to generate ownership by Governments and communities.
  4. 4. SOUTH ASIA DROUGHT MONITORING SYSTEM: NEEDS ASSESSMENT SURVEY • Carried out by the GWP South Asia and the Country Water Partnerships in Bhutan, Bangladesh, Nepal, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka in collaboration with IWMI • Full report available at: http://www.droughtmanagement.inf o/literature/GWP_SA_Summary_Re port_Need_Assessment_Survey_2 014.pdf
  5. 5. DMS: INTEGRATED MONITORING APPROACH Satellite Data RS and Meteorological Data Biophysical Data Data Input variables 1) NDVI; VCI; Ratio of ET-PET 2) Percent Annual Seasonal Greenness (PASG) 3) Start of Season Anomaly (SOSA) 1) Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) 2) LST & TCI 1) Land cover 2) GIAM 3) AWC 4) Ecoregion 5) Elevation Regression Tree Model using Cubist 1. Integrated Database Development 2. Model Development 3. Map Generation Drought Severity Index 4. Online Visualization Platform Regional to basin level applications and decision support products SA bi-weekly, monthly products Basin-level high resolution products Country-level, 1-km, biweekly products Water managers Irrigation Districts State Agencies Academic Institutions Federal Agencies Scientific Community International Agencies Disaster Relief Organization
  6. 6. DATA INPUTS FOR INTEGRATED DROUGHT MONITORING
  7. 7. CLIMATE DATASET Source: NOAA GHCN-M; National Meteorological Dept., Satellite Rainfall Estimates, CCAFS Climate Scenario
  8. 8. SPI INTER COMPARISON GPCC VS. APHRODITE VS. OBSERVED STATIONS Khuzdar, Balochistan province, Pakistan
  9. 9. 2014 DROUGHT – REALITY CHECK • SPEI (Standardised Precipitation – Evapotranspiration Index) determines the onset, duration and magnitude of drought conditions with respect to normal condition. • 2014 drought seriously damaged crop production in Ampara, Kurunegala, Anuradhapura, Polonaruwa districts of SL 2014 SPEI Water for a food-secure world www.iwmi.org SPEI, Kurnnegala District
  10. 10. 2014 DROUGHT IN INDIA AND SRI LANKA: RECONNAISSANCE SURVEY
  11. 11. SOUTH ASIA DMS OUTPUTS • Enhanced understanding and quantification of drought’s magnitude, spatial extent, and potential impact – through a combination of climate, vegetation and biophysical indicators • On-line prototype drought monitoring tool – the basis for coordination of regional drought mitigation effort. Historical and current high spatial and temporal resolution drought risk and propagation mapping online • Identified hot-spot areas – where droughts are more intense and frequent • Operational drought monitoring system(s) installed in national center(s), or / and identified regional hub • National capacity in drought monitoring built in all participating countries to address the gaps identified through needs assessment • Regional sharing and dissemination of operational drought information r the users can download at country level for subsequent analysis;
  12. 12. THANK YOU Photo: Joe Ronzio/IWMI

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