Bin Laden, Intelligence, And National Security

Searching for Bin Laden: The Use of Intelligence in the War on Terror or How NOT to Spend the Taxpayers’ Treasure Hackers on Planet Earth (HOPE) 6 Robert David Steele Updated 20 July 2006

This Briefing is Online

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Other key references online include:

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http://www.oss.net/TERMS

http://www.oss.net/IO

http://www.oss.net/REFLECTIONS

We’re in a Six-Front 100-Year War of Our Own Making. America is losing/has lost the moral high ground.

Policy/ Threats Poverty Disease Ecology State War Civil War Genocide Oth. Atroc. Proliferation Terrorism Trans. Crime Debt Economy Education Energy Diplomacy Family Immigration Justice Revenue Security Soc. Sec. Water For each Al Qaeda $1, US Spends $500K. Badly. We can do this forever. Any Questions?

Policy/ Threats Poverty Disease Ecology State War Civil War Genocide Oth. Atroc. Proliferation Terrorism Trans. Crime Debt Economy Education Energy Diplomacy Family Immigration Justice Revenue Security Soc. Sec. Water Big Dogs Brazil China India Indonesia Iran Russia Venezuela Wild Cards In Grand Strategy terms, Al Qaeda shrinks to zip.

Policy/ Threats Poverty Disease Ecology State War Civil War Genocide Oth. Atroc. Proliferation Terrorism Trans. Crime Debt Economy Education Energy Diplomacy Family Immigration Justice Revenue Security Soc. Sec. Water Can't Fix Stupid! Big Dogs Brazil China India Indonesia Iran Russia Venezuela Wild Cards From left : Larry the Cable Guy , Bill Engvall , Jeff Foxworthy and Ron White .

Plan for the Brief

Focused only on National Security Budget

Initial Focus on $60B/Year Spent by IC

Then Focus on $600B/Year Spent by DoD

Review Books on Threats and Strategy

Discuss Needed Reforms in America

Conclude with Hope for the Future

National Security Writ Small

Department of Defense - $600B/Year

Buys heavy metal military ill-suited to reality

Department of State –

Buys Embassy fortresses and little else

Department of Justice –

Buys heavy-handed ill-focused FBI & suits

Department of Homeland Security –

Buys ill-directed hand-outs and little security

National Security Writ Large

Nurture and use all sources of power

Educated and engaged citizenry

Competent intelligence

Universal coverage (all countries & topics)

24/7 (real time versus one-year “studies”)

All languages

Morally sound diplomacy not ideological

Morally sound capitalism not predatory

Balanced defense (four threat types)

Coherent homeland security (engaged citizenry)

Balanced budget, don’t import poverty, export jobs

Global Intelligence Failure Breakdown in Collection and Understanding Digital Analog Oral/Unpublished English Language Foreign Languages* *31 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all. NSA FBIS UN/STATE Cascading Deficiencies: 1) Don’t even try to access most information 2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital 3) Can’t translate most of what we collect CIA/DO NRO

Global Processing Failure Breakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination 50% Less Costly More Satisfying SIGINT OSINT 0% 50% HUMINT IMINT MASINT STATE Does Not Exist

Threats vs. Sources Threat #1: Poverty 95% Threat #2: Infectious Disease 99% Threat #3: Environmental Degradation 90% Threat #4: Inter-State Conflict 75% Threat #5 Civil War 80% Threat #6: Genocide 95% Threat #7: Other Large-Scale Atrocities 95% Threat #8: Nuclear, bio-chemical weapons 75% Threat #9: Terrorism 80% Threat #10: Transnational organized crime 80% Average Importance of “OSINT” 86%

HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE 5% of cost 80% of value 95% of cost 20% of value Secret Intelligence Misses 80% of the Relevant Information!

Baseball Analogy Harnessing the Power of the Crowd OSINT HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT

ADDNI/OS & OSS CEO ADDNI/OS View of OSINT OSS CEO View of OSINT OSINT Humint Sigint Masint Imint FI Humint Sigint Imint Masint Osint OSINT is both a supporting discipline, and an all-source discipline.

New Craft of Intelligence I Lessons of History II Global Coverage III National Intelligence IV Spies & Secrecy China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc . Cost-Sharing with Others-- Shared Early Warning Narrowly focused! Harness distributed intelligence of Nation

Focus of Global Effort Shared Among Tribes Partial Sharing Tribal Secret Top Secret Strategic Forecasting 10% Need, 40% Cost Primary Research & Experts on Demand 20% Need, 30% Cost Help Desk (Tell Me More Right Now ) 30% Need, 20% Cost Daily/Weekly Reports 40% Need, 10% Cost

Creating the World Brain: Web-Based Virtual Intelligence Teams OPG VPN Weekly Review Expert Forum Distance Learning Virtual Library Shared Calendar Virtual Budget Shared 24/7 Plot Shared Rolodex

Real vs. False Budget Source: http://www.warresisters.org/piechart.htm

Policy-Intelligence Failure: Unbalanced Instruments of Power

Too much of:

Military heavy metal

Secret satellites

Not enough of:

Humans on ground

Human expert analysis

Technical processing

State & local intelligence

Public health, water, etc.

The real budget is the real policy. Citizens must vote and provide constant oversight if the taxpayer dollar is to be spent wisely.

Ethnic Fault Lines 2000 18 Genocide Campaigns On-Going Today Source: Dr. Greg Stanton

Water & War Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53 Hyper-Arid Sub-Humid Arid Semi-Arid Water Pollution 1 2 3 4 5 6

Global Threats to Local Survival * State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002 Complex Emergencies 32 Countries Refugees/Displaced 66 Countries Food Security 33 Countries Child Soldiers 41 Countries Modern Plagues* 59 Countries & Rising Water Scarcity & Contaminated Water** Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today** Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution** Corruption Common 80 Countries Censorship Very High 62 Countries

Taxpayer Dollars Focused on Just 10% of the Threat

Presidential Trade-Offs $100 million will buy: 1 Small Navy Platform or Ground Unit or 1,000 Potential George Kennan’s or 10,000 Peace Corps Volunteers or 1,000,000 cubic meters of desalinated water or One day of war over water (or oil)

$1 T/Yr Not Being Leveraged

Between interest on the debt, unnecessary military systems, unnecessary secret satellites, and a wide variety of subsidies and tax loopholes, we waste $500B/Year.

For lack of good economic intelligence and counterintelligence, and ethics at the top, we forego $500B a year in corporate tax contributions to revenue, import-export pricing and insurance fraud, and lost revenues from bandwidth and federally-controlled properties.

Policy-Intelligence Failure Public is Neither Engaged Nor Informed

Why This Matters

Homeland security--”A Nation’s best defense is an educated citizenry.” (Thomas Jefferson)

Prosperity--the financial value of ethics, trust, strategic culture

Global security--the long-term value of public intelligence to multi-cultural policy initiatives, the best pre-emption is moral.

World War III Players Bacteria Nations Gangs Citizens Inc.

Pelton on Ground Truth

Most government and media sources have not actually had eyes on target and boots in the local mud

You don’t have to travel to these places to have them affect home front security

We simply are not grasping essential ground truths

Shawcross on Endless Conflict

Peace operations are as complex and difficult as war operations

Humanitarian assistance can create black markets and sustain a conflict

Good will without strength makes things worse

Kaplan on Frontier of Anarchy

History, geography, and traveling third class are vital to true understanding

We are engaged in "a protracted struggle between ourselves and the demons of crime, population pressure, environmental degradation, disease, and culture conflict."

Heidenrich on Genocide

15-18 genocides going on today--scores more over time

Genocide can be forecast and can be prevented

Indifference is murder

Global force needed

Klare on Resource Wars

Energy, Water, Timber, and Minerals will be at the heart of future war

Ethnic conflict and great power disconnects will compound the challenge

In this light, corporations are now belligerents and must be treated as such

de Villiers on Water

It is the average person, not the corporation, that does the most damage

Pollution, dams, irrigation, and acquifer mining are all destroying our environment

We need a national and global water conservation and replenishment strategy.

Helvarg on Oceans

Oceans more important than Amazon, should be protected

Western economic interests are treating oceans as private mines and private cesspools

Information available from NOAA and UN is not reaching public domain and could help citizen action

Thornton on Industrialized Poison

Need new paradigm for controlling bio-chemical threats to society, one focused on probability of risk instead of permission to kill pending proven risk

“ Good science” is code for value-free policy that risks citizens’ long-term health for short-term corporate profit

Garrett on Globalized Disease

Health of our Nation depends on health of other nations

Insurance and doctors have helped kill public health (prevention) in favor of hospitals and antibiotics

We have created resistant forms of disease and may not be able to contain epidemics

Gray on Modern Strategy

Technology is not a substitute for strategy

War is about getting your way, not about combat

Time matters--use or lose

Over time strategic culture is more important than arms or money.

Brzezinski on Grand Strategy

Europe, Russia, and Eurasian “stans” are the hearth of 21st century opportunity and threat

Core new players are Turkey and Indonesia

Iran is more stable, and China less of a threat, that conventional wisdom says

Geopolitics more important than technology

Kupchan on Failure of Empire

Strategic cultures resist incoming information and suffer from “adjustment failure”

Foreign internal instability merits rapid intervention with strong economic incentives

Failure to intervene early will lead to emergence of aggressors that are difficult to defeat once out of the box.

Shultz et al on Complexity

“ Most policymakers do not fully realize the dynamics of the world we live in.” (Graham Fuller)

History and culture are vital to security policy

Non-military operations are as important as military operations at all times

Cimbala on Friction

Friction is real and is destroying our ability to match ends with means

We don’t have a strategy; we don’t try to understand the strategies of others; we do not have unity of effort across the diplomatic-defense-justice continuum

Revolutions Not Technical

Concepts, not technology, are revolutionary

Best revolutions are actually incremental and simple

Technology is not a substitute for strategy

Current & planned arsenal distantly related to real needs

O’Hanlon on Aid Spending

We spend half as much on aid as do most of the other developed countries

Foreign aid in its current form is not preventing conflicts

Best investment world-wide is in education of women, this cascades across issue areas

Oakley on Police Peace Operations

Failed states present us with a global problem that requires an international law enforcement reserve

UN police often cannot read or drive a car and do not have doctrine

Constabulary forces are different from small war forces

Bowden on Manhunts

Timing is everything--we let the thugs amass billions before we go after them

We are weak in tactical intelligence against non-traditional (e.g. individual) targets, especially in cities

It can be done--but is almost impossible to do well if host state is in chaos

Warfare in the Third World

Subjective factors including pain threshhold determinant

Training absorption much more important that arms supplies

Third World combat is both unconventional and never ending…

Third World War

Spreading insecurity is directly related to protracted conflict among societal groups

Incompetent interventions make matters much worse

Violence can be predicted

Once begun, the violent will not listen to reason...

Clark on Modern War

White House does not listen to early warning

Army doesn’t do mountains, tries not to use Apaches etc.

Air Force doesn’t do strategic mobility, needs 24 hours to redirect TACAIR

Technology loses to weather, lacks intelligence

Smart Holistic Strategy

End state must be legitimate governments everywhere

Ultimate investment is educational, both at home and abroad

Must do inter-agency holistic planning, apply all the instruments of national power all the time

The Tunnels of Cu Chi

Never underestimate the enemy

10 bombs in Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela will drive price of oil to $200 a barrel Suicide changes everything… Suicidal plague carriers…. Etc. PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE Tunnels, Pipelines, Bridges, Dams, Towers ELECTRONIC INFRASTRUCTURE Power, Financial, Comms, Transportation MILITARY ACHILLES’ HEELS Off-base power, down-links, antennas ECONOMIC BLAHS No Fly No Spend No Hire DATA Corruption Public Health Home Front Weaknesses

New Strategy: 1 + iii: Need better balance 45% 20% 20% 15% 248B vs. 550B 110B vs 20B 110B vs. 20B 82B vs. 36B CINCWAR CINCSOLIC CINCPEACE CINCHOME Strategic NBC Small Wars State/USIA Intelligence Big War(s) Constabulary Peace Corps Border Patrol Ground Truth Economic Aid Port Security 1 i i i Electronic Reserve Reserve Environment Public Health Peace Navy

Modern Presidential Leadership President Congress Judiciary Chief of Staff Director-General for National Policy Director-General for Global Strategy Director-General for National Intelligence Director-General for National Research Director of Classified Intelligence (DCI) Chairman, National Intelligence Council Director, Global Knowledge Foundation

Modern Strategic Governance Director General Global Strategy Deputy Director Global Strategy Deputy Director Response Management