This document provides an overview of intelligence failures and recommendations for reform. It argues that the US spends too much on secret intelligence and military programs, and not enough on open source intelligence, humanitarian aid, and understanding other cultures. It recommends a more balanced approach across diplomatic, economic and social issues to better address the root causes of conflicts and threats.

1. Searching for Bin Laden: The Use of Intelligence in the War on Terror or How NOT to Spend the Taxpayers’ Treasure Hackers on Planet Earth (HOPE) 6 Robert David Steele Updated 20 July 2006

3. We’re in a Six-Front 100-Year War of Our Own Making. America is losing/has lost the moral high ground.

4. Policy/ Threats Poverty Disease Ecology State War Civil War Genocide Oth. Atroc. Proliferation Terrorism Trans. Crime Debt Economy Education Energy Diplomacy Family Immigration Justice Revenue Security Soc. Sec. Water For each Al Qaeda $1, US Spends $500K. Badly. We can do this forever. Any Questions?

5. Policy/ Threats Poverty Disease Ecology State War Civil War Genocide Oth. Atroc. Proliferation Terrorism Trans. Crime Debt Economy Education Energy Diplomacy Family Immigration Justice Revenue Security Soc. Sec. Water Big Dogs Brazil China India Indonesia Iran Russia Venezuela Wild Cards In Grand Strategy terms, Al Qaeda shrinks to zip.

6. Policy/ Threats Poverty Disease Ecology State War Civil War Genocide Oth. Atroc. Proliferation Terrorism Trans. Crime Debt Economy Education Energy Diplomacy Family Immigration Justice Revenue Security Soc. Sec. Water Can't Fix Stupid! Big Dogs Brazil China India Indonesia Iran Russia Venezuela Wild Cards From left : Larry the Cable Guy , Bill Engvall , Jeff Foxworthy and Ron White .

10. Global Intelligence Failure Breakdown in Collection and Understanding Digital Analog Oral/Unpublished English Language Foreign Languages* *31 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all. NSA FBIS UN/STATE Cascading Deficiencies: 1) Don’t even try to access most information 2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital 3) Can’t translate most of what we collect CIA/DO NRO

11. Global Processing Failure Breakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination 50% Less Costly More Satisfying SIGINT OSINT 0% 50% HUMINT IMINT MASINT STATE Does Not Exist

12. Threats vs. Sources Threat #1: Poverty 95% Threat #2: Infectious Disease 99% Threat #3: Environmental Degradation 90% Threat #4: Inter-State Conflict 75% Threat #5 Civil War 80% Threat #6: Genocide 95% Threat #7: Other Large-Scale Atrocities 95% Threat #8: Nuclear, bio-chemical weapons 75% Threat #9: Terrorism 80% Threat #10: Transnational organized crime 80% Average Importance of “OSINT” 86%

13. HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE 5% of cost 80% of value 95% of cost 20% of value Secret Intelligence Misses 80% of the Relevant Information!

14. Baseball Analogy Harnessing the Power of the Crowd OSINT HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT

15. ADDNI/OS & OSS CEO ADDNI/OS View of OSINT OSS CEO View of OSINT OSINT Humint Sigint Masint Imint FI Humint Sigint Imint Masint Osint OSINT is both a supporting discipline, and an all-source discipline.

16. New Craft of Intelligence I Lessons of History II Global Coverage III National Intelligence IV Spies & Secrecy China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc . Cost-Sharing with Others-- Shared Early Warning Narrowly focused! Harness distributed intelligence of Nation

17. Focus of Global Effort Shared Among Tribes Partial Sharing Tribal Secret Top Secret Strategic Forecasting 10% Need, 40% Cost Primary Research & Experts on Demand 20% Need, 30% Cost Help Desk (Tell Me More Right Now ) 30% Need, 20% Cost Daily/Weekly Reports 40% Need, 10% Cost

18. Creating the World Brain: Web-Based Virtual Intelligence Teams OPG VPN Weekly Review Expert Forum Distance Learning Virtual Library Shared Calendar Virtual Budget Shared 24/7 Plot Shared Rolodex

19. Real vs. False Budget Source: http://www.warresisters.org/piechart.htm

21. Conflict Facts for 2002 23 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman

22. Ethnic Fault Lines 2000 18 Genocide Campaigns On-Going Today Source: Dr. Greg Stanton

23. Water & War Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53 Hyper-Arid Sub-Humid Arid Semi-Arid Water Pollution 1 2 3 4 5 6

24. Global Threats to Local Survival * State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002 Complex Emergencies 32 Countries Refugees/Displaced 66 Countries Food Security 33 Countries Child Soldiers 41 Countries Modern Plagues* 59 Countries & Rising Water Scarcity & Contaminated Water** Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today** Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution** Corruption Common 80 Countries Censorship Very High 62 Countries

25. Taxpayer Dollars Focused on Just 10% of the Threat

26. Presidential Trade-Offs $100 million will buy: 1 Small Navy Platform or Ground Unit or 1,000 Potential George Kennan’s or 10,000 Peace Corps Volunteers or 1,000,000 cubic meters of desalinated water or One day of war over water (or oil)

52. 10 bombs in Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela will drive price of oil to $200 a barrel Suicide changes everything… Suicidal plague carriers…. Etc. PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE Tunnels, Pipelines, Bridges, Dams, Towers ELECTRONIC INFRASTRUCTURE Power, Financial, Comms, Transportation MILITARY ACHILLES’ HEELS Off-base power, down-links, antennas ECONOMIC BLAHS No Fly No Spend No Hire DATA Corruption Public Health Home Front Weaknesses

53. New Strategy: 1 + iii: Need better balance 45% 20% 20% 15% 248B vs. 550B 110B vs 20B 110B vs. 20B 82B vs. 36B CINCWAR CINCSOLIC CINCPEACE CINCHOME Strategic NBC Small Wars State/USIA Intelligence Big War(s) Constabulary Peace Corps Border Patrol Ground Truth Economic Aid Port Security 1 i i i Electronic Reserve Reserve Environment Public Health Peace Navy

54. Modern Presidential Leadership President Congress Judiciary Chief of Staff Director-General for National Policy Director-General for Global Strategy Director-General for National Intelligence Director-General for National Research Director of Classified Intelligence (DCI) Chairman, National Intelligence Council Director, Global Knowledge Foundation

60. Questions? [email_address] www.oss.net 703.266.6393 Will speak for sushi. Tell others.