Assessing Vulnerability to Today’s Climate This module addresses the following: The importance of assessing vulnerabilities to today’s climate How to identify current adaptation deficits

1. Analysing Climate Vulnerability: Training for Adaptation
Today’s Climate

2. Process Stage 1
Analysing Climate Vulnerability: Today’s Climate
Assessing Vulnerability to Today’s Climate
This module addresses the following:
• The importance of assessing vulnerabilities to today’s climate
• How to identify current adaptation deficits
Climate Adaptation
C. Aall, E. Heiberg & D. Davies, 2012
Online Training Resource

3. Process Stage 1
Analysing Climate Vulnerability: Today’s Climate
Importance of assessing vulnerabilities to today’s climate
1.The vulnerability to todays climate may be
considerable and should be addressed
• Vulnerability to natural variation within today`s
climate may be large due to a range of issues
including the lack of maintenance of buildings and
physical infrastructure.
• If such adaptation deficits are not dealt with, the
task of adaptation to the future climate will be more
severe.
Climate Adaptation
C. Aall, E. Heiberg & D. Davies, 2012
Online Training Resource

4. Process Stage 1
Analysing Climate Vulnerability: Today’s Climate
Importance of assessing vulnerabilities to today’s climate
2. Vulnerability stems, in part, from the uncertainty
concerning the rate and magnitude of changes to expect,
the potential for non-linear changes to occur, and the
long time horizons involved (Dessai & der Sluijs, 2007).
Uncertainties make it difficult or, at times, impossible to
assess the vulnerability to tomorrows climate.
• In such cases assessing the vulnerability to today`s
climate may be the only option.
• Examples of relevant uncertainties in Norway:
-We do not know if climate change will cause stronger
wind
-We may not know the future pattern of precipitation in
our region
-We do not know how climate change will influence the
different types of avalanches
Dessai, S., & der Sluijs, J. v. (2007).
Uncertainty and Climate Change Adaptation - a Scoping Study
Climate Adaptation
C. Aall, E. Heiberg & D. Davies, 2012
Online Training Resource

5. Process Stage 1
Analysing Climate Vulnerability: Today’s Climate
Importance of assessing vulnerabilities to today’s climate
3) In many cases the existing systems of risk
assessments only take into account the risk
according to today`s climate.
The reasons for this may be uncertainties
mentioned in point 2, or lack of sufficient local data.
This is the case e.g. in the national Norwegian
mappings of risks due to rockfalls, avalanches,
flooding and quick clay slides.
Climate Adaptation
C. Aall, E. Heiberg & D. Davies, 2012
Online Training Resource

6. Process Stage 1
Analysing Climate Vulnerability: Today’s Climate
Identifying and addressing adaptation deficits
• Use existing risk assessment systems to evaluate current vulnerability to today’s climate
• Consider if collecting more local data will aid similar assessments in the future, assessments that
will occur in the climate of tomorrow
Climate Adaptation
C. Aall, E. Heiberg & D. Davies, 2012
Online Training Resource

7. Process Stage 1
Analysing Climate Vulnerability: Today’s Climate
Final key points:
• Assessment of the vulnerability to today’s climate is a necessary starting point
– Vulnerability to natural variation in today’s climate may be considerable due to a range of physical
and institutional limitations, including the lack of maintenance for buildings and other physical
infrastructure.
• Adaptation deficits should be dealt first
– If adaptation deficits are not dealt with, the task of adaptation to the future climate will be more
severe. It will also increase the risk of mal-adaptive measures being implemented.
Climate Adaptation
C. Aall, E. Heiberg & D. Davies, 2012
Online Training Resource