3. The cause for drop in FDI
₮0.00
₮100.00
₮200.00
₮300.00
₮400.00
₮500.00
$0.00
$5.00
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
Turquoise Hill Resources share price performance
(2009-2014)
2009
Explore-124
Drill-67
2010
Explore-173
Drill-108
2011
Explore-302
Drill-190
2012
Explore-324
Drill-206
2013
Explore-142
Drill-79
Parliament
reviews OT
IA draft
OT IA
signed
68% windfall
profit tax
canceled
2010 budget
announced
at $758
million
$1.5 billion
was secured
from EBRD
and IFC
2011 budget
approved at
$2.1 billion
20 parliament
members petition
to change the OT
IA 34%-50%
Rio
increases
stake to
48.5%
MRAM revokes
SouthGobi
licenses in
relation to Chalco
bid
SEFIL passed
Parliament
election
Chalco bid
terminated
GOM wants to
renegotiate OT IA
OT begins
production
GOM says
Phase-2
funding will
need
approval
Cancellation
of SEFIL
Amended
Mineral Law
4. Domestic factors for the drop in FDI
1. Moratorium banning the issuance of new
exploration licenses -2010
2. 20 parliamentarians’ petition on OT IA -2011
3. Revocation of SouthGobi Resources license
-2012
4. Passing of SEFIL -2012
5. Draft Minerals Law -2012
6. Government’s request to renegotiate OT IA -
2012
7. Delay in OT phase-2 funding-2013-2014
Actions Cause
1. Democratic nature: Arthur Schlesinger’s
cyclical theory
2. Traditional and nomadic lifestyle
3. Past experience under communist regime
6. External factors- Weak commodities’ price
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
Copper (USD per metric ton)
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
Gold (USD per troy ounce)
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
Australian thermal coal (USD per metric ton)
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
Iron ore, China Import Price (USD per dry metric ton)
Source: Index Mundi
7. External factors- Investors’ sentiment
0.00
50.00
100.00
150.00
200.00
250.00
300.00
350.00
TSX.V Copper price Gold Price
Investor sentiment within the commodities
sector is at 5 year low
TSX.V- 114.53
Gold- 152.63
Copper- 218.18
8. Domestic outlook- Political barometer
45.50%
47.50% 50.30%
38.60%
37.80%
23.30%
15.80%
13.50% 13.70% 15.30%
6.10%
5.50% 5.10% 5.90% 7.10%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Improve slightly Remain same Worsen slightly
What is your outlook on the economy in the next 5 years?
19.6%
29.6%
31.8%
23.3%
22.6%
46.8%
43.3%
43.3%
43.2%
36.8%
25.7%
15.4% 14.7%
20.4%
28.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Improving Stagnating Worsening
How would you rate the current state of the economy?
Improving
Worsening
Stagnating
Remain same
Worsen
Improve
What shareholding structure should be used to develop Strategic Mineral Deposits?
59.60%
55.80%
52.50%
54.00%
55.50%
57.00%
58.50%
60.00%
2013 2014
Mongolia's shareholding over 51%
6.90%
8.70%
0.00%
3.00%
6.00%
9.00%
12.00%
2013 2014
Equal shareholding
0.50%
0.80%
0.00%
0.30%
0.60%
0.90%
2013 2014
Foreign shareholding over 51%
Source: Sant Maral Foundation
9. Domestic outlook- Political barometer
17.3
27.1
16.9
34.2
16.5
28.9
15.3
35.4
8.9
34
14.6
39.7
9.5
35.4
8.6
43.2
11
40.3
8.4
35.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Government should help the
poor directly
Invest in long term social
development programs such
as Public Education and
Health Care projects
Cash handout for each
citizen
Invest in economic
development projects
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Where should mineral wealth be invested by the Government?
Source: Sant Maral Foundation
10. External outlook
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
Iron Ore Price (USD$) Forecast to 2025
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
Coal Price (USD$) Forecast to 2025
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
Gold Price (USD$) Forecast to 2025
$0
$2,000
$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
Copper Price (USD$) Forecast to 2025
Source: World Bank
11. Domestic outlook and expectations
• New Investment Law
• Investment Fund Law
• Securities Market Law
• Mineral Law
• Petroleum Law
• Smart Government initiative
• Mineral policy
• Accessible Mineral Licenses
• Reduction in corruption
• Improvement in infrastructure
POSITIVE LEGAL
ENVIRONMENT
STABILITY
Current investment environment Uncertainties
• Oyu Tolgoi Phase-2 funding
• Tax dispute involving Oyu Tolgoi LLC
• Railway policy
• Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi IPO
Environment is ready
Catalyst event needed!
MIBG’s expectations
• Economic slowdown to continue
• Public more friendly towards FDI but
future volatility is certain
• Government policy to support private
sector
• Mineral discoveries will take place
(Erdene Resource, Xanadu Mines)
12. Thank you for your attention
• Any questions or comments regarding this document and the specifics of the transaction should be directed to
Bilguun Ankhbayar using the provided contact information below.
• Please visit us at: www.mibg.mn
• Please forward any questions or comments to:
Bilguun Ankhbayar
Chief Executive Office
Office: +976 1136 2620
Email: bilguun@mibg.mn
12
The opinions and/or views expressed in this information package do not necessarily represent the official
position of MIBG (Mongolian Investment Banking Group) LLC. The products, projects, or private entities
discussed in this document are presented for informational purposes only and do not constitute an
offer, solicitation of an offer to purchase, hold, sell, invest or make any other financial decision. In making
decisions, investors may rely on their own examinations of the parties and risks involved.
The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are believed to be accurate
and reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete and subject to change without advance
notice.
Important Disclosures
13. Country Data
Key Indicators 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Real GDP growth (%) -1.27% 6.37% 17.51% 12.28% 11.78%
Real GDP (2009 based) 3.9 5.3 6.9 8.8 10.6
CPI Inflation (%) 8.01% 10.07% 9.18% 14.02% 12.5%
Exports (mil.USD) 2,304.6 3,391.5 5,462 5,231.7 4,272.7
Imports (mil.USD) 3,777.7 2,637.3 7,608.3 7,894.9 6,354.7
Population (mil) 2.71 2.76 2.79 2.83 2.87
Unemployment rate (%) 11.6% 9.9% 7.7% 6.8% 6.1%
Source: NSO, Mongol Bank
Source: Ministry of Economic Development forecast
GDP growth Trade balance
Source: NSO
-1.27%
6.40%
17.50%
12.20% 12.00%
7.50%
10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
GDP (bln USD) GDP growth %billion USD % change
-$4,000.00
-$2,000.00
$0.00
$2,000.00
$4,000.00
$6,000.00
$8,000.00
$10,000.00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Exports Imports External trade balancemil.USD
16. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) FDI vs. GDP Growth
15.00% 13.60%
27.30%
55.10%
37.00%
17.70%
12.50%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
$0.00
$1,000.00
$2,000.00
$3,000.00
$4,000.00
$5,000.00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F
FDI Inflow (mil.USD) FDI (% of GDP)
Million USD
Role of Foreign Direct Investment
*As of the end of April 2014, FDI is down 64% YoY to $350 million USD for the
first 4 months.
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
FDI GDP Gov Spending
19. Current state of the economy
What has happened?
• Continuously dropping FDI
• $1.5 billion in Chinggis Bond
• $300 million in Samurai Bond
• MNT depreciation of 36% in 2 years
• Rising living expenses
• Slowdown in coal sales in China
• OT lay-off of 2000 employees in the past 2 years
• Widespread layoffs at MobiCom, Wagner Asia etc.
• Bankruptcy of Eznis
What are the uncertainties?
• Minerals law amendments
• OT phase-2 financing
• 106 license issues
• Lifting of a ban on new exploration licenses
We have been thru
this before!!!
2009, 2006, 1998
20. Economics and demographics
2011 2012 2013 2013%
0-18 952,026 977,027 1,002,419 34.21%
18-35 948,017 946,894 954,516 32.57%
36-55 689,515 709,722 729,452 24.89%
55+ 222,108 234,101 243,890 8.32%
Total 2,811,666 2,867,744 2,930,277 100.00%
11.32%
24.07%
30.44%
18.61%
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
GDP per person Growth %
GDP per person Age segment of the population
Source: NSO
21. Country Data – Economic sectors
Source: NSO
Sector contributions to the GDP 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
Mining 23.60% 24.10% 20.20% 20.20%
Agriculture and Forestry 14.30% 12.30% 14.20% 14.50%
Retail and wholesale 15.60% 17.60% 17.70% 17.40%
Industrial processing 8.40% 7.80% 7.50% 8.30%
Real Estate 6.60% 7.00% 6.90% 7.30%
Transportation and logistics 7.80% 7.20% 6.00% 4.80%
Financial services 2.90% 3.40% 4.20% 4.70%
Education 4.00% 4.00% 4.60% 4.40%
Defense 3.60% 3.30% 4.20% 3.90%
Construction 1.70% 2.30% 2.90% 3.50%
Services 2.80% 2.90% 3.10% 3.10%
Information communication 3.40% 3.10% 3.10% 2.70%
Health care 1.70% 1.70% 1.90% 1.90%
Utilities 2.50% 2.10% 2.00% 1.80%
Hospitality 0.60% 1.00% 1.20% 1.10%
Entertainment 0.40% 0.30% 0.40% 0.50%
Mining Agriculture and Forestry
Retail and wholesale Industrial processing
Real Estate Transportation and logistics
Financial services Education
Defense Construction
Services Information communication
Health care Utilities
Hospitality Entertainment
22. It is a mining economy!
1200
150
90 80 38 35 30 30 30 26
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Copper (million tons)
238
163 157
115
76
59
34 31 30
8
0
50
100
150
200
250 Coal (billion tons)
1673
1390
652
485 480
296 284 278 273 207
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Uranium (thousand tons)
Interesting outlook on China
By 2019, Chinese economy could
overtake the US in terms PPP -
International Comparison Program
By 2025, China will build enough
skyscrapers to fill TEN New York-size
cities- McKinsey
By 2030, Chinese cities will add 350
million new residents from suburban
areas- McKinsey
By 2030, Chinese economy could be
the largest in the world in terms of
absolute GDP
23. Questions and Contact Details
• Any questions or comments regarding this document and the specifics of the transaction should be directed to
Nadya Gankhuyag using the provided contact information below.
• Please visit us at: www.mibg.mn
• Please forward any questions or comments to:
Bilguun Ankhbayar
Mongolian Investment Banking Group
Office: +976 1136 2620
Email: nadya@mibg.mn
23
The opinions and/or views expressed in this information package do not necessarily represent the official
position of MIBG (Mongolian Investment Banking Group) LLC. The products, projects, or private entities
discussed in this document are presented for informational purposes only and do not constitute an
offer, solicitation of an offer to purchase, hold, sell, invest or make any other financial decision. In making
decisions, investors may rely on their own examinations of the parties and risks involved.
The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are believed to be accurate
and reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete and subject to change without advance
notice.
Important Disclosures
25. Financial Sector - Structure
Financial Sector
Structure
Banking
Sector
Central Bank
Commercial
Banks
Non-Banking
Sector
Nonbank
Financial
Institutions
Savings and
Credit
Cooperatives
Securities
Companies
Insurance
companies
Number Assets
(bil.MNT)
% of the
Market
Banking Sector
Commercial Banks 14 96.4%
Private 13 8,991 94%
State owned 1 232 2.4%
Non-banking Sector
NBFI 192 189 2%
Insurance companies 17 77 0.8%
Savings and Credit
cooperatives
170 59 0.6%
Securities Companies 88 14 0.1%
Total 481 9,563 100%
Financial sector in numbers (as of 2012)
26. Banking Sector
Top Commercial
Banks
Domestic Market Shares Number of
branches
Loans % Deposits %
Golomt Bank 21.0% 25.4% 91
TDB 22.9% 20.3% 45
Khan Bank 24.9% 25.2% 512
Xac Bank 9.0% 6.7% 100
Main Duties
• Formulates and implements monetary policy
• Stabilize national currency
• Management of interest and exchange rates
• Oversight of government borrowing
• Supervision of inter-bank settlement and lending
• Printing and issuance of banknotes
• Management of international reserves
• Financial supervision of banks
Outlining Laws and regulations
Laws Law on Central Bank of Mongolia
Sector specific
laws
Banking law, Law on Deposits,
Payment Settlements and Loan
Activities of Banks and Legal
Entities, Law on Insurance,
Securities Market Law
Central Bank of Mongolia – Mongolbank Commercial Banks in Mongolia
Other commercial banks Development Bank of
Mongolia
Capital Bank National Investment Bank
Capitron Bank Liquidated banks
Credit Bank Ard Bank
State Bank Anod Bank
Transbank Mongol Business Bank
Ulaanbaatar city Bank Zoos Bank
Chinggis Khan Bank Khotsh Bank
Erel Bank
27. Banking Sector - Cont
Funding and liquidity of Mongolian commercial banks
Loan Market share and distribution by banks and industry
Source: Mongolbank, NSO
28. Banking Sector – Cont
Annual average interest rates in Mongolia Housing Mortgage Program
2013 June – Housing Mortgage Program was
launched by the government of Mongolia
•Mortgage loan, ranges between 1-20 years and has the
weighted average term of 17.3 years.
•In July and August, After mortgage program started, 183
billion MNT mortgage was issued by housing program
with 8% interest rate.
•In July and August, After mortgage program
started, 3098 borrowers have been granted the housing
mortgage, 592 borrowers have been granted by banks
own capital.
33.60%
30.00%
32.40%
27.60%
15.60% 15.60%
9.75% 10.00% 11%
12.25% 13.25%
10.50%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Bank Interest Rate Policy Rate Savings Rate
Source: Mongolbank
29. Mongolian Capital Market - Structure
• 1991 – Established MSE, followed by launching of 29 broker dealers firms
• 1992 – 475 State-owned enterprises were reorganized into Joint Stock Company (JSC)
• 1994 – Established Mongolian Securities Exchange Commission
• 1995 – Mongolia’s first Securities law was passed
• 1996 – First government bond was traded on MSE
• 2001 – MSE started trading company bonds
• 2003 – Securities Clearing House and Central Depository was organized
• 2006 – FRC was restructured with extended duties
• 2010 – Market value of Mongolian Stock Exchange exceeded 1 Trillion MNT
• 2012 – MSE launched Millennium IT, trade and payment system
Financial Regulatory
Commission
• Regulate and supervise all
aspects of Capital Market
• Grants approval
(registration of
securities, IPO)
Mongolian Stock
Exchange
• Organizes trading of
securities
• Trades Gov.
bonds, Company
bonds, Stocks
Securities Clearing House
and Central Depository
• Executes the settlement
and savings of the
securities
• Keeps record of the
securities registration
Timeline of Mongolian Capital Market
30. Mongolian Capital Market - NBFI
₮69.20 ₮66.40 ₮78.50
₮96.50
₮128.60
₮205.40
₮252.10
₮282.40
139 137
132
177 182
195
212 229
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
-₮50.00
₮50.00
₮150.00
₮250.00
₮350.00
₮450.00
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
NBFI Assets (Billion MNT) Number of NBFIs
Mongolian Micro-Finance Asset Growth vs. Number of NBFIs
Source: FRC Mongolia
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
0.00₮
50.00₮
100.00₮
150.00₮
200.00₮
Total Loans Borrowers
Micro-Finance Total Loans OS vs. Number of
Borrowers in Mongolia
Source: Mongol Bank, FRC quarterly
Current borrower market in Mongolia consists of private
individuals looking for salary loans to SMEs looking for
working capital.
Due to the seasonal nature of Mongolia’s economic
activity, the demand for Micro-Finance loans become
high during the later half of the year as individuals and
businesses prepare for winter.
On average a borrower had borrowed ₮800,000 MNT
(Approximately $500 USD) from a Micro-Finance institute
over the past 3 years.
Average interest rate at a Micro-Finance institute in
Mongolia is currently 39.6%.
31. Mongolian Capital Market - Insurance
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Insurance companies 18 17 17 18 17
Branches 129 138 138 188 213
Insurance agent 1676 2061 2057 2357 3187
Insurance intermediary 5 9 8 17 20
Insurance evaluator 2 6 9 9 14
Actuary 10 12 13 18 15
Total 1711 2105 2104 2419 3253
Current Asset of Insurance companies
bil.MNT
Top 10 Insurance companies with total asset
Name Total Asset
(mil.MNT)
% of Market Name Total Asset
(mil.MNT)
% of Market
Mongol Daatgal 25,635.5 20.3% MIG Daatgal 7,522.5 6.0%
Bodi Daatgal 12,551.0 9.9% Ard Daatgal 7,128.3 5.6%
Tenger Daatgal 9,743.2 7.7% Soyombo Daatgal 6,746.8 5.3%
Mandal Daatgal 8,822.3 7.0% Nomin Daatgal 6,611.1 5.2%
Practical Daatgal 7,867.8 6.2% National Life Daatgal 5,626.7 4.5%
Mongolian Insurance companies in number
Source: FRC quarterly report
32. Mongolian Capital Market – Savings and Credit
Cooperatives
Savings and Credit Cooperatives in numbers Total Asset of SCC (in bil.MNT)
Top 10 Savings and Credit Cooperatives with total assets
Name Total Asset
(mil.MNT)
% of the market Name Total Asset
(mil.MNT)
% of the market
Nomin Union 2,062.2 21.1% Monconcord 241.8 2.5%
Mai Capital 928.1 9.5% Ireeduin Zorilt 212.5 2.2%
Monum 775.1 7.9% Yeson Delbee 177.7 1.8%
Moncord 409.9 4.2% Biluu Hugjil 152.2 1.6%
Sidan 306.7 3.1% Cengel Hugjil 150.2 1.5%
Source: FRC quarterly report
34. Securities Company - Cont
Corporate and Government Bond trade on MSE
Securities Trading on MSE MSE Top 20 Index
Source: Mongolbank
35. Questions and Contact Details
• Any questions or comments regarding this document and the specifics of the transaction should be directed to
Nadya Gankhuyag using the provided contact information below.
• Please visit us at: www.mibg.mn
• Please forward any questions or comments to:
Nadya Gankhuyag
Associate, Investment Banking
Office: +976 1136 2620
Email: nadya@mibg.mn
35
The opinions and/or views expressed in this information package do not necessarily represent the official
position of MIBG (Mongolian Investment Banking Group) LLC. The products, projects, or private entities
discussed in this document are presented for informational purposes only and do not constitute an
offer, solicitation of an offer to purchase, hold, sell, invest or make any other financial decision. In making
decisions, investors may rely on their own examinations of the parties and risks involved.
The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources that are believed to be accurate
and reliable but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete and subject to change without advance
notice.
Important Disclosures
36. MIBG LLC Corporate Profile
• MIBG LLC is a registered Broker, Dealer, and Underwriter with the Financial Regulatory Commission of Mongolia.
The firm aims to serve the needs of clients, domestic and foreign, individual and institutional, in their brokerage
and advisory needs. MIBG delivers uncompromising value, clear and concise advisory services, and transparent
business practices that ensure our clients interests are protected at all times.
• MIBG LLC was established in 2008 as a member of the Financial Services Corporation (FSCo LLC), a
comprehensive services provider engaged in Venture Capital, Insurance, Long Term Savings, Securities Trading,
and Investment Banking.
• Enquiries regarding this and any other information packages published and/or distributed by MIBG LLC should be
directed to research@mibg.mn, for all other enquiries please contact info@mibg.mn.
36