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Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
Biodiversity Loss in Thailand
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Biodiversity Loss in Thailand

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  • 1. Biodiversity in Thailand BIODIVERSITY LOSS IN THAILAND FROM GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE Yongyut Trisurat Faculty of Forestry, Kasetsart University Bangkok, Thailand In Collaboration With Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP)
  • 2. Biodiversity in Thailand Biodiversity loss → Leveling out = homogenization process High abundance Low abundance “Fishing down the foodweb (Pauly, 2001)”
  • 3. Biodiversity in Thailand Human development (HDI) & Biodiversity (NCI)
  • 4. Biodiversity in Thailand Habitat Destruction 100% Exotic Species Biodiversity exploitation of land use Protected areas Pollution Fragmentation Climatic changes Measures of Conservation Regeneration Sustainable management 0% Time Causes of Biodiversity Loss
  • 5. 1. Species-richness in proportion to surface area by country, biogeographical region 2. Species-richness by 10 main EUNIS habitat types ECOSYSTEM INTEGRITY, GOODS SUSTAINABLE USE 3. Tree species composition in forests • AND SERVICES Area of ecosystems under 4. Changes in species composition in wetlands • sustainable management Marine trophic index 5. Endemic species richness in proportion to surface area by biogeographical region • Forest Connectivity/fragmentation of 6. Trends ofd species groups (carnivores, raptors, geese, species of economic interest) Agriculture ecosystems 7. Trends of selection of representative species associated with different ecosystems aquatic ecosystems • Fishery Water quality in Aquaculture • 8. Number of threatened taxa occuring at different geographical levels • 9. Number of globally threatened species endemic to Europe • Ecological footprint 10. Percentage of globally threatened species per biogeographical region • 11. Percentage of European threatened species per biogeographical region 12. Threatened forest species 13. Forest genetic resources 14. Wild relatives of cultivated plants 15. Crops and breed genetic diversity 16. Threats in and around wetland sites 17. Landscape-level spatial pattern of forest cover STATUS AND TRENDS OF THREATS TO BIODIVERSITY • 18. Diversity of linear features and doiversity of crops in farmlands COMPONENTS OF BIOVERSITY Nitrogen deposition • • 19. Percentage of introduced species that have become invasive per biogeographical region Numbers and costs of invasive Trends in extent of selected biomes, alien species ecosystems, habitats 20. Spread of invasive selected species over time • • Impact of climate change Coverage of protected areas 21. Introduces tree species • • Trends in abundance and 22. Introduces species in fresh surface waters • distribution of selected species 23. Introduces species in marine and coastal waters • Change in status of threatened 24. Proportion of globally threatend species and/or protected species • 25. Proportion of globally threatened fauna species protected by European instruments (EC Directives and Bern Convention) Trends in genetic diversity of domesticated animals, cultivated 26. Proportion of known species present in Europe protected by European instruments plants, fish species of major 27. Proportion of species only present in Europe protected by European instruments socioeconomic importance 28. Progress in implementation of action plans for globally threatened species 29. Funds spent through LIFE Nature projects for species and habitats 30. Total area of wetlands (and other ecosystems types) reclaimed by country, biogeographic region, Europe 31. Cumulated area of sites over time under international conventions and initiatives 32. Cumulated area of sites proposed over time under EU Directives 33. Proportion of sites under EU Directives already protected under national instruments 34. Cumulated area of national designated areas over time in Pan-Europe 35. Species diversity in designated areas 36. Bird species distributions and Special Protection Areas (SPAs) coverage 37. Range of Species of European Interest or Threatened Species present in designated areas 38. Trends of selected species population within and outside designated areas 39. Percentage (in surface area) of Annex I habitat-type included in potential Sites of Community Interest (pSCIs) 40. Change (in surface area) of Annex I habitat-type included in pSCIs 41. Range of Habitats of European Interest present in designated areas 42. Percentage of main activities reported in pSCIs 43. Agricultural land in designated areas 44. Land cover changes in the surroundings of designated areas 45. Deadwood 46. Number of individuals per main fauna species group killed on roads per length per year 47. Number of fauna passages per infrastructure length unit 48. Financial investment for fauna passages
  • 6. Aggregation: Biodiversity Indices composite indicators for overview Pressure index Natural Capital Index Biodiversity Intactness Index Biodiversity Red List Index Living Planet Index Species Assemblage Trend Index MSA= Mean abundance of original species relative to pristine (original stage)
  • 7. Biodiversity in Thailand Design of the model (P-S-R) Input: Dose- system State / trend Env. response describers Biodiversity conditions model pressures Policy Actions Ecosystem functions / poverty
  • 8. Biodiversity Loss at Global Level (GLOBIO 3 Model) Biodiversity ( MSA) 100% 0% Global Biodiversity Model (GLOBIO 3)
  • 9. Biodiversity loss per biome - World Temperate and tropical grasslands & forests Polar, tundra desert, boreal
  • 10. Biodiversity in Thailand Existing Forest Cover by Region in Thailand, 1961-2000 80.00 % of total country 60.00 North area East 40.00 Northeast 20.00 Central 0.00 South 61 76 82 88 91 95 00 Total 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 Year
  • 11. Biodiversity in Thailand Key Policy Questions? Implications of GLOBIO 3 to National Level What is the current situation of biodiversity in each ecosystem? What is the future situation (2050)? What are the main pressure factors? What needs to be done to improve the model?
  • 12. Biodiversity in Thailand GLOBIO 3 Model Framework GLOBIO 2 GLC 2000 IMAGE Climate Nitrogen Land Roads/ use Rails patch size Infrastructure Climate Land-use Nitrogen effect effect effect effect effect MSA Pressure Input data indicators
  • 13. Land use change 1,2 1,2 mean species abundance forests grasslands 1 1 mean species abundance 0,8 0,8 0,6 0,6 0,4 0,4 0,2 0 0,2 selective agroforestry cropland pasture primary secondary plantations logging forest forest 0 primary pasture cropland climate Nitrogen deposition 1,2 1,2 1 tundra mean area reduction tundra 1 species richnes ratio 0,8 0,8 forests 0,6 0,6 0,4 forests grasslands grasslands 0,4 0,2 0,2 0 0 0,0 1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 0 5 10 15 20 N g.m-2 Temperature change (degrees)
  • 14. Fragmentation and Infrastructure 100 1,2 90 1 mean species abundance p ercen tag e o f sp ecies 80 0,8 70 60 0,6 birds 50 0,4 mammals 40 0,2 30 20 0 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 distance to roads 0 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 grasslands, deserts, wetlands boreal and temperate forests minimum area requirement tropical forests and tundra infrastructure Patch size dependence
  • 15. Biodiversity in Thailand GLOBIO 3 Model Framework State of the art knowledge 140 publications, Species richness, Abundances Africa: 24; Asia: 36; Europe: 21; North America: 23; South America: 27; Oceania: 7 62 tropical forests; 31 other forests; 17 grasslands; 9 shrublands; 5 deserts Ca. 5700 species: 2100 plant species, 1700 insects, 1300 birds, 150 other vertebrates
  • 16. Land-use intensities - Unaltered forest - Low impact logging - Plantation forest - Intensive grazing - Intensive agriculture
  • 17. 0.4 Associated MSA - Unused = 1.0 0.7 - Lightly used = 0.7 0.1 - Planted = 0.4 0.1 - High ext. inputs = 0.1 (MSA = mean species abundance) 1.0
  • 18. Press 0.4 - Land Use - Agriculture - Infrastructure 0.7 - Fragmentation 0.1 0.1 - Fires Total NCI = 0.1 x 0.7 x 0.4…. 1.0
  • 19. Biodiversity in Thailand GLOBIO 3 Model Framework Land Use (Biggs, 2005) GLC 2000 Class (FAO/UNEP)Sub-class MSALU Snow and ice Snow or ice 1.0 Bare areas Deserts and alpine forest 1.0 Primary vegetation 1.0 Slightly disturbed or managed Forest forest 0.7 Secondary forest 0.5 Forest plantation 0.2 Primary grassland and shrubland 1.0 Shrubs and grassland Livestock grazing 0.7 Man-made pasture 0.1 Mosaic: cropland/forest Agroforestry 0.5 Cultivated and managed Low input agriculture 0.3 areas Intensive agriculture 0.1 Artificial surfaces Build-up areas 0.1
  • 20. Biodiversity in Thailand GLOBIO 3 Model Framework Climate Change (EUROMOVE – Bakkenes et al, 2006) Biome Image Slope (◦C-1) Ice 0.023 0.050 Tundra 0.154 0.070 Wooded tundra 0.284 0.051 Boreal forest 0.043 0.079 Cool conifer forest 0.168 0.080 Temperate mixed forest 0.045 0.101 Temperate deciduous forest 0.100 0.109 Warm mixed forest 0.052 0.139 Grassland and steppe 0.098 0.193 Hot desert 0.036 - Scrubland 0.129 0.174 Savannah 0.093 - Tropical woodland 0.039 - Tropical forest 0.034 - MSACC = 1 – Slope * ΔTemperature
  • 21. Biodiversity in Thailand GLOBIO 3 Model Framework N deposition (Bobbink, 2004; Bouwman et al., 2004) GCL 200 Ecosystem Equation classes Arctic-alpine Snow and ecosystem ice MSAN = 0.9 - 0.005 NE Boreal coniferous forest Forest MSAN = 0.8 - 0.14 In (NE) Shrubs and Grassland grassland MSAN = 0.8 - 0.08 In (NE) N deposition exceeding the critical load level applies only to natural land not to cropland
  • 22. Biodiversity in Thailand GLOBIO 3 Model Framework Infrastructure (UNEP, 2001: 300 papers) High impact Medium impact Low impact No impact Vegetation cover (MSAI = 0.50) (MSAI = 0.75) (MSAI = 0.90) (MSAI = 1.00) Cropland 0.0-0.5 0.5-1.5 1.5-5.0 >5.0 Grassland 0.0-0.5 0.5-1.5 1.5-5.0 >5.0 Boreal forest 0.0-0.3 0.3-0.9 0.9-3.0 >3.0 Temperate deciduous forest 0.0-0.3 0.3-0.9 0.9-3.0 >3.0 Tropical forest 0.0-1.0 1.0-3.0 3.0-10.0 >10.0 Desert and semi desert 0.0-0.5 0.5-1.5 1.5-5.0 >5.0 Wetland 0.0-0.5 0.5-1.5 1.5-5.0 >5.0 Arctic tundra 0.0-1.0 1.0-3.0 3.0-10.0 >10.0 Ice and snow 0.0-0.5 0.5-1.5 1.5-5.0 >5.0 Zone (0.0-0.5 km) along infrastructure
  • 23. Biodiversity in Thailand GLOBIO 3 Model Framework Fragmentation (Bouwan et al., 2002; Woodroffe and Ginsberg, 1998) Area (km2) MSAF 1-10 0.55 10-100 0.75 100-1000 0.85 1000-10000 0.95 >10000 1.00 Smaller area for plant species
  • 24. Biodiversity in Thailand GLOBIO 3: Sources of Data Potential veg.:BIOME’s as historical range data Land use: Forest type 2000 (DNP) reclassified to Global Land Cover (GLC 2000) Patch size: Forestry type map & road network Infrastrucure: Road network (OEPP) Climate change: Mean temp. (IMAGE) Nitrogen: Exceedance of the critical load of N deposition (IMAGE) Forest and Agriculture Management: extensive, intensive and irrigated agr. (national statistic data)
  • 25. Biodiversity in Thailand GLOBIO 3 Model Framework MSA = MSALUC * MSACC * MSAN * MSAI * MSAF MSA= Mean abundance of original species relative to pristine (original stage) MSALUC = Remaining MSA for Land use change MSACC = Remaining MSA for Climate change MSAN = Remaining MSA for Nitrogen pollution MSAI = Remaining MSA for Infrastructure MSAF = Remaining MSA for Fragmentation 0.5 * 0.5 degree at global 11 km * 11 km & 1 km * 1 km (exercise)
  • 26. BiodiversityFramework GLOBIO 3 in Thailand ArisFlow Grid Area Land Grid Image Sequential Grid Grid Critical ImageCells Regions Load N Grid Grid N-deposition Infrastructure GLCT Image Grid Biomes scenario scenario Combine Unique Cells Regions Biomes GLCT and LandArea Calculate N Exceeding Classes per UniqueCell Calculate Infrastructure per UniqueCell N Exceeding per UniqueCell LandArea per dBase UniqueCell Region Biome~ Infrastructure Dbase2Access per UniqueCell LandArea per dBase UniqueCell Region Biome~ Landcover per Dbase2Access Unique Cell Dbase2Access Access N Exceeding Infrastructure Unique Cell per UniqueCell per UniqueCell Region Biomes Access Access GLCT Combi ~ GLC fraction Protected Area Per Region Table Land Cover Biome GLCT ~ Calculate N-Depostion Correction On Biodiversity Calculate Scenario GLCArea Per Unique Cell Region Biome GLCT Combi N-Deposition CropArea Correction on Biodiversity p~ Biomes GLC Area per Impact classes GLC Classes Unique Cell Region Biome~ Correct Crop Area (GLC 16 class) with total region crop area Climate Regression corrected area Values Crop area with IMAGE crop area per ~ Forest_Plantati on_Timberregim e_Fraction Temperature change Calculate Infrastructure Correction On Biodiversity Irrigated and Intensive Grazing area Agricultural Fr~ Infra correction on Biodiversity Calculate Area Plantation And Timber Forest Calculate Area Irrigated And Intensive Agriculture Set Corrections On Biodiversity Per Unique Cell Temperature Irrigated and Area Plantation Intensive And Timber Agricultural Ar~ Forest per Uni~ Scenario Unique Cell Region Biome~ N-deposition Replace Areas for Agriculture and Forestry Biodiversity Values (GDP) Scenario Time delay Unique Cell values Calculate Biodiversity values per Cell GLC fragmentation Biodiversity per Unique Cell GLC Add fragmenation effect Biodiversity per UU Calculate Biodiversity Per Unique Cell Biodiversity per Unique cell Create biodiversity asciigrid Corrected Biodiversity Asciigrid
  • 27. Biodiversity in Thailand GLOBIO 3: Sources of Data OEPP DNP (2000)
  • 28. Biodiversity in Thailand Thailand Results
  • 29. Biodiversity in Thailand Results 0.80 0.71 0.70 0.62 0.60 0.58 S 0.60 0.51 aining M 0.51 0.47 0.45 0.50 0.40 Rem 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 Warmmixed Grassland Desert Scrub Savannah Tropical Tropical Medit. Shrub woodland forest Biomes Remaining MSA = 0.57
  • 30. Trends from Global in Thailand Biodiversity Perspective 1970 2000 2030
  • 31. Biodiversity in Thailand Results 0% 21% 2% R by agriculture ed. R by grazing ed. 0% Red.by forestry 0% R by built up ed. 4% R by nitrogen ed. 58% Red.by climate 15% Red.by infra/fragment. R aining biodiversity em
  • 32. Biodiversity in Thailand Results 100% 80% SA 60% %M 40% 20% 0% W arm Grassland Desert Scrub Savannah Tropical Tropical Medit. mixed woodland forest Shrub R By agriculture ed. R by grazing ed. R by forestry ed. Red.by build up Red.by nitrogen Red.by climate Red.by infra/fragment R aining biodiversity em
  • 33. Biodiversity in Thailand Results
  • 34. Refine Biodiversity Thailand Biodiversity in Modeling Conclusions The remaining MSA = 0.57; desert - highest (0.71); tropical woodland lowest (0.45) The MSA will continue to decline rapidly in the future. Encoachment for agriculture is the main pressure followed by infra/fragmenation.
  • 35. Refine Biodiversity Thailand Biodiversity in Modeling Applications MSA is universal indicator to quantify biodiversity loss and pressure factors Has potential for GAP Analysis of protected area system plan Serve a base for enhancing regional cooperations
  • 36. Biodiversity in Thailand Mesoamerica Ecoregion Corridor
  • 37. Refine Biodiversity Thailand Biodiversity in Modeling Global Thailand Information Inputs GLC2000 Nat. Land use/land cover classes (1:50,000) 1) Historical vegetation map/Ecoregion 2) Plant and wildlife (predicting species niche Biome distribution) Nat. demography census/survey IMAGE Nat. macroeconomic Sequential grid - 0.1‘ (11 x 11 km2)/pixcel 1 km2/1 ha (100 x 100 m) resolution -1 km2 Database Management/Analysis Tools ArisFlow ArcGIS and ArcView, etc Lat/Long UTM National scale (Region) River basin/admin unit
  • 38. Refine Biodiversity Thailand Biodiversity in Modeling Pressures Pressures/vulnerabilities Need to integrate other Projected land-use change pressures at national level – (IMAGE) derived from poverty, forest fire, etc global economy Patch size effect Patch size, isolation and shape Overgrazing, forest fire, poverty, poaching, etc. Climate (mean T) Climate (temp. rain, max-min-range) Nitrogen deposition Fertilizer input Protected area IUCN/national categories/intensity
  • 39. Biodiversity in Thailand THANK YOU & SAWASDEE

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