Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact andAdaptation Study for Natural and Agricultural                 Systems         First R...
Task 2 Aim To conduct a climate change impact  and adaptation study on the water  resources, food security, livelihoods  ...
ARCC Task 2: CC Vulnerability Assessment &Adaptation Study - ObjectivesTake an ecosystems approach in:1. Identifying CC im...
Task 2: Climate change and LMB                                                       farming ecosystems                   ...
Farming systems climatechange vulnerability continuum                                 ICEM, 2012                          ...
Integrated livelihoods       Agricultur                 NTFPs           eFisheries           Livelihoods           Livesto...
The farming system                          trend        Rural to urban migration Small holdings          Land           C...
Task 2 study key concepts                    E c o s y s t e m     a p p r o a c h•   Recognises that all things are linke...
Ecosystem approachEcosystem approach – recognises:• the importance of relationships and linkages between  all parts of far...
ZonesZones provide a common analytical framework for the study teamPurpose of zoning is to identify areas of the basin wit...
Zones        Climate change        zones        Areas experiencing similar           climate change        1. Annual + sea...
Zones            Ecozones            Ecozones have detailed:             biophysical descriptors              (elevation,...
ShiftsThree “shifts” associated with climate change in theLMB          Climate          change           shifts           ...
ShiftsClimate change shifts                                           Climate                                             ...
ShiftsGeographic shift                                 Shift in zone of suitabilityin climate Original extent of          ...
Shifts                                                   Climate                                                   change ...
Shifts                                                   Climate                                                   changeF...
Hot spotsIdentifying climate change “hot spots” – i.e. highly vulnerable areas High exposure:    significant climate cha...
Hot spots                                Mekong Basin                                Ecozone hot                          ...
Hot spots                                Mekong Basin                                Ecozone hot                          ...
Hot spots                              Mekong Basin                              Ecozone hot                              ...
Comfort zonesFarming ecosystem “assets”Top commercial cropsVietnam                      Laos                   Thailand   ...
Comfort zones                     23         ICEM 2012
Comfort zones                     24         ICEM 2012
Species comfort zonesOptimal growing conditions: Mean annual maximum temperature                                          ...
Species comfort zonesOptimal growing conditions: mean annual precipitation                                                ...
Species comfort zones   Se San: Commercial crops with climate change• Rubber: Projected increases in temperature and preci...
Ecosystem comfort zones                                                                         Figure 5                  ...
Water availability index      Soil water availability                                 Index to measure the               ...
Land suitability and                                      crop yieldLand suitability: Identifies areas suitable for differ...
Se San Basin – land suitabilityLowland rice                       ICEM 2012                 31
Se San Basin – land suitabilityrubber                                           32                 ICEM 2012
Se San Basin – land suitabilityCoffee (coffea canephora)                                                      33          ...
Se San Basin – land suitabilitycassava                  ICEM 2012                 34
Se San Basin – land suitabilityMaize                                          35                ICEM 2012
Crop yield with climate       change        Defining impact of water availability on         each growth phase and quanti...
Climate change impact                                                   and vulnerability                                 ...
Conceptualframework forresponding to climatechangeAssessing vulnerability Exposure x sensitivity = impact Impact x adapt...
Multiplier Impacts      Production        Poverty     Food security     Sector growth                        39        Eco...
Steps in the CAM assessment                                      process                                    Baseline      ...
Inputs to vulnerability assessment method                          41
Jeremy Carew-Reid,ICEM – International Centrefor EnvironmentalManagementwww.icem.com.au               42
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Overview of Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study for the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB)

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The Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation (CCIA) Study for the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) is a 10 month undertaking that sets about to:
1. Identify highly threatened and valuable agricultural, livestock, fisheries, and natural systems assets in the Lower Mekong Basin;
2. Translate data into useful GIS products that illustrate the vulnerability to climate change of key agricultural, aquatic, and other natural systems;
3. Provide a scientific evidence base for the selection of 3-5 focal areas within the basin where Mekong ARCC will undertake adaptation initiatives with communities
4. Recommend adaptation strategies to guide community planning at these sites; and
5. Inform policy makers, development specialists, private sector, and the global climate science community on the impacts of climate change on water resources, food security, livelihoods and ecosystem integrity in the Lower Mekong Basin.
Since April 2012, a team of more than 20 national and international Mekong ARCC scientists and researchers (see Annex 1) has been collecting and analyzing data on how climate change will impact agricultural production, fisheries, livestock and ecosystems in the Lower Mekong Basin.

Presented by Jeremy Carew-Reid, Mekong ARCC CCIA Study Leader, this PowerPoint provides key approaches and methods used in the Study.

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Overview of Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study for the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB)

  1. 1. Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact andAdaptation Study for Natural and Agricultural Systems First Regional Workshop October 31th – November 1st 2012 Sofitel Plaza Hotel, Hanoi, Vietnam 1
  2. 2. Task 2 Aim To conduct a climate change impact and adaptation study on the water resources, food security, livelihoods and biodiversity of the Mekong River Basin
  3. 3. ARCC Task 2: CC Vulnerability Assessment &Adaptation Study - ObjectivesTake an ecosystems approach in:1. Identifying CC impact and vulnerabilities of rural poor and their environment - water resources, food security, livelihoods and biodiversity (fisheries and wildlife);2. Identifying hot spots in the LMB: provide a scientific evidence base to guide the selection of pilot project sites;3. Defining adaptation strategies to inform community and ecosystem-based adaptation pilot projects and4. Communicating the results of the vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning. 3 ICEM - International Centre for Environmental Management
  4. 4. Task 2: Climate change and LMB farming ecosystems Threat Climate changes Hydrological changes LMB ecozones Impact (farming ecosystems) Farming ecosystem species Subsistence crops commercial crops Crop wild species Industrial and Vulnerability Aquaculture Traditional landraces Livestock Wild fish Wild life species NTFPs Adaptation Adaptation options and prioritiesICEM, 2012 4
  5. 5. Farming systems climatechange vulnerability continuum ICEM, 2012 5
  6. 6. Integrated livelihoods Agricultur NTFPs eFisheries Livelihoods Livestock Health Infrastructure
  7. 7. The farming system trend Rural to urban migration Small holdings Land Commercial firmsLabour intensive consolidation and plantations Low captial Increased capital High capital intensity intensity intensity Subsistence Intermediate Commercial 7 ICEM 2012
  8. 8. Task 2 study key concepts E c o s y s t e m a p p r o a c h• Recognises that all things are linked in a fabric across landscapes S h i f t s• Climate shifts• Ecosystem shifts• Farming system shifts Z o n e s• Ecozones• Climate zones C l i m a t e c h a n g e h o t s p o t s• Ecozones• Sub-catchments• Provinces• Protected areas C o m f o r t z o n e s• Species• Ecosystems• Ecozones W a t e r a v a i l a b i l i t y i n d e x• Soil water• Evapotranspiration• Rainfall• Surface water S u i t a b i l i t y a n d c r o p y i e l d• Land suitability for crops under climate climate 8• Crop yields in different areas under climate change
  9. 9. Ecosystem approachEcosystem approach – recognises:• the importance of relationships and linkages between all parts of farming systems and their environment• the distinctive character and tolerance levels of each ecosystem to change• the different spatial levels of ecosystems which are important to farming system health and productivity (from soil to ecozone)• the services which assemblages of wild species and other natural resources provide to farming systems• its importance as a basis for adaptation in farming systems 9 ICEM 2012
  10. 10. ZonesZones provide a common analytical framework for the study teamPurpose of zoning is to identify areas of the basin with common:  climate change characteristics  bio-physical characteristics  farming system characteristicsTwo types of zones:1. Climate change zones – temperature, rainfall, extreme events, water availability and hydrology2. Ecological zones – natural habitat, species and genetic resourcesWe overlaid the climate change zones on the ecozones at various levels of focus 10
  11. 11. Zones Climate change zones Areas experiencing similar climate change 1. Annual + seasonal rainfall averages & extremes 2. Annual + seasonal temperature averages & extremes 3. Specific tolerance & threshold maps (eg droughts and extreme events) 11
  12. 12. Zones Ecozones Ecozones have detailed:  biophysical descriptors (elevation, temperature, rainfall and landform)  natural system descriptors (vegetation, soils)  agricultural, livestock and fisheries profilesICEM 2012 12
  13. 13. ShiftsThree “shifts” associated with climate change in theLMB Climate change shifts Farming system shifts Ecological shifts ICEM 2012 13
  14. 14. ShiftsClimate change shifts Climate change shifts Farming systemRegular climate shifts Ecological shifts shifts1. Geographic shifts (space):  latitude and longitude  elevation2. Seasonal shifts (time)  onset and end,  variabilityExtreme events shifts3. Extreme event shifts – intensity, regularity, location  Micro events – eg flash flooding and soil loss in uplands  Macro events – eg saline intrusion in Delta; cyclone landfall ICEM 2012 14
  15. 15. ShiftsGeographic shift Shift in zone of suitabilityin climate Original extent of for habitat and crops natural habitat Paddy rice and commercial crops Remaining natural habitat Subsistence crops and NTF 15 pockets collection ICEM 2012
  16. 16. Shifts Climate change shiftsEcological shifts due to cc in the LMB Farming system shifts Ecological• Geographic shift in species ranges shifts• Substantial range losses• Seasonal shifts in life cycle events (eg. advances in flowering and fruiting, fish and bird migration)• Body size changes - warming associated with decreased body size• Community composition changes: Warm-adapted species in communities increase – others die out• Genetic changes (eg tolerance shifts; stress proteins) ICEM 2012 16
  17. 17. Shifts Climate changeFarming ecosystem shifts – climate and shifts Farming system shiftsecological changes will lead to, for example: Ecological shifts• Diminished ecological provisioning services:  Increased reliance on hybrids  Diminished wild genetic diversity  Reduced crop diversity  Reduced availability and access to NTFPs  Increased water demand• Diminished regulatory and habitat services  Reduced pollination and pest control  Reduced soil organic (carbon) content  Reduced soil micro fauna and flora• Less stable systems requiring more intensive inputs 17 ICEM 2012
  18. 18. Hot spotsIdentifying climate change “hot spots” – i.e. highly vulnerable areas High exposure:  significant climate change relative to base Mekong Basin conditions  exposure to new climate/hydrological conditions Ecozone hot spots High sensitivity:  limited temperature and moisture tolerance Sub-catchment range and provincial hotspots  degraded and/or under acute pressure  severely restricted geographic range  rare or threatened Local area hot Low adaptive capacity spots (eg protected  Poor connectivity area clusters)  Low diversity and tolerances  Homogenous systems ICEM 2012 18
  19. 19. Hot spots Mekong Basin Ecozone hot spots Sub-catchment and provincial hotspots Local area hot spots (eg protected area clusters) Rainfall climate change threat hot spot ICEM 2012 19
  20. 20. Hot spots Mekong Basin Ecozone hot spots Sub-catchment and provincial hotspots Local area hot spots (eg protected area clusters) Temperature climate change threat hot spot ICEM 2012 20
  21. 21. Hot spots Mekong Basin Ecozone hot spots Sub-catchment and provincial hotspots Local area hot spots (eg protected area clusters) Industrial and commercial crops climate change threat hotspots ICEM 2012 21
  22. 22. Comfort zonesFarming ecosystem “assets”Top commercial cropsVietnam Laos Thailand CambodiaRice, paddy Rice, paddy Rice, paddy Rice, paddyCoffee, green Maize Rubber CassavaCashew nuts, with shell Coffee, green Cassava MaizeCassava Tobacco, Sugar cane Bananas Fruit trees: Bananas and Traditional crop varieties Wild plants mangoes  Rice (more than 13,000  Cardamom, identified in Lao  Rattan and bamboo Vegetables: Sweet potatoes,  Eggplant (more than 3000  Orchids tomatoes, beans, chilli in Lao)  Mushrooms  Papaya Subsistence crops  Banana (centre of origin) Crop wild relatives  Lowland and upland rice  Mango (centre of origin)  Glutinous rice (centre of  Cassava  Pineapple origin  Maize  Water melon  Eggplant (centre of origin)  Peanuts  Passion fruits 22 Centre of origin for: coconut palm, sugarcane, clove, nutmeg, black pepper, onion, cucumber
  23. 23. Comfort zones 23 ICEM 2012
  24. 24. Comfort zones 24 ICEM 2012
  25. 25. Species comfort zonesOptimal growing conditions: Mean annual maximum temperature 25 ICEM 2012
  26. 26. Species comfort zonesOptimal growing conditions: mean annual precipitation 26 ICEM 2012
  27. 27. Species comfort zones Se San: Commercial crops with climate change• Rubber: Projected increases in temperature and precipitation would open upland areas for rubber cultivation.• Coffee plantations would suffer from changes in rainfall patterns and/or excess rainfall in the highland areas (especially Arabica).• Cassava: Relatively resistant to drought so would become a substitute in rain fed agricultural systems in drier areas BUT would have reduced suitability in high rainfall areas.• Sweet potato and key root crops not well suited to higher rainfall and soil moisture conditions and higher temperatures• Soybean would suffer from higher temperatures - shift to higher elevation may be required.• Bananas and mangoes: increases in temperature and precipitation would open upland areas for cultivation ICEM 2012 27
  28. 28. Ecosystem comfort zones Figure 5 50Mid elevation drybroadleaf forest - 45Mondulkiri Daily maximum temperature (Deg C) 40Ecosystem comfort zone: The range of 35 precipitation or temperature that was 30 experienced during 50% C. Z. of the baseline around C. Z. the mean. 25 20 15 ICEM 2012 28 Baseline Wet Season CC Wet Season Baseline Dry Season CC Dry Season (Jun-Nov) (Jun-Nov) (Dec - May) (Dec - May)
  29. 29. Water availability index Soil water availability  Index to measure the changes in soil water availability  Considers: Precipitation  Rainfall  Temperature Transpiration  Evapo-transpiration  Surface waterEvaporation  Soil water  Soil type Surface run-off Surface layer water availability Infiltration Subsurface layer water availability Groundwater availability 29
  30. 30. Land suitability and crop yieldLand suitability: Identifies areas suitable for differentspecies under differing conditions of climate, topographyand soils • Historic suitability of basin for a range of commercial and subsistence crops • Suitability with climate change • Assessment of shifts in geographical and seasonal suitabilityCrop yields in hot spot areas:• Losses or gains in crop yields within hot spots• Yield potential for new crops in hot spots ICEM 2012 30
  31. 31. Se San Basin – land suitabilityLowland rice ICEM 2012 31
  32. 32. Se San Basin – land suitabilityrubber 32 ICEM 2012
  33. 33. Se San Basin – land suitabilityCoffee (coffea canephora) 33 ICEM 2012
  34. 34. Se San Basin – land suitabilitycassava ICEM 2012 34
  35. 35. Se San Basin – land suitabilityMaize 35 ICEM 2012
  36. 36. Crop yield with climate change  Defining impact of water availability on each growth phase and quantifies resulting changes in yield Source: FAO, 2010
  37. 37. Climate change impact and vulnerability assessment method 37ICEM - International Centre for Environmental Management
  38. 38. Conceptualframework forresponding to climatechangeAssessing vulnerability Exposure x sensitivity = impact Impact x adaptive capacity =vulnerability 38
  39. 39. Multiplier Impacts Production Poverty Food security Sector growth 39 Ecosystem services/products
  40. 40. Steps in the CAM assessment process Baseline VA Final report report reportInception and Baseline Vulnerability Adaptation scoping  zoning impacts of options for:Definition of  trend analysis “threats” on  Zones/habitats scope  CC threat  Zones/habitats  hot spots methods modeling  hot spots  agricultural  Hot spots  agricultural systems  land suitability systems  species/crops  crop modeling  species/crops  GIS analysis 40 Mekong ARCC Second Team working session, 24-28 September, HANOI
  41. 41. Inputs to vulnerability assessment method 41
  42. 42. Jeremy Carew-Reid,ICEM – International Centrefor EnvironmentalManagementwww.icem.com.au 42

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