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University of Amsterdam and University College London

Health & Medicine Technology

Interpreting Probability in Causal Models for Cancer Federica Russo and Jon Williamson Philosophy, University of Kent

Overview ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Cancer epidemiology ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Varieties of causal claims ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object], Both are probabilistic statements

Desiderata ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Frequency - cum - Objective Bayesianism ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Risks, odds and probabilities: Easy to compute Risks and odds compare proportions Factor Disease Yes No Exposed n 11 p 11 n 12 p 12 Unexposed n 21 p 21 n 22 p 22

Risks, odds and probabilities: Tricky to interpret ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

To sum up ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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