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Interpreting Probability  in Causal Models for Cancer Federica Russo and Jon Williamson Philosophy, University of Kent
Overview ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Cancer epidemiology ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Varieties of causal claims ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object], Both are  probabilistic  statements
Desiderata ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Frequency - cum - Objective Bayesianism ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Risks, odds and probabilities: Easy to compute Risks and odds compare  proportions Factor Disease Yes No Exposed n 11 p 11 n 12 p 12 Unexposed n 21 p 21 n 22 p 22
Risks, odds and probabilities: Tricky to interpret ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
To sum up ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Bsp Spresentation

  • 1. Interpreting Probability in Causal Models for Cancer Federica Russo and Jon Williamson Philosophy, University of Kent
  • 2.
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  • 7. Risks, odds and probabilities: Easy to compute Risks and odds compare proportions Factor Disease Yes No Exposed n 11 p 11 n 12 p 12 Unexposed n 21 p 21 n 22 p 22
  • 8.
  • 9.