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GEOTHERMAL
(Regional)

GROWTH
… or how demand and availability of finance
drives development


Alexander Richter!
!
ThinkGeoEnergy.com!
@thinkgeoenergy!
!
19 September 2012 – 2nd Global Geothermal Energy Summit 2012, Reykjavik/ Iceland!   1	
  
THE NEW !
THINK!
GEOENERGY!
!
to come:!
- Supplier Directory!
- Plant Map!
- Publications

                        2	
  
Geothermal growth – global vs. regional




                                           3	
  
DRIVERS OF
DEVELOPMENT


               4	
  
Effects on international development !
last 2-3 years
                              •  Interest vs. Capabilities
  Economic situation
                              •  Growth & standstill

                              •  Growing economies
  Energy demand
                              •  Policy & competitiveness

                              •  Technology, R&D
  Industry
                              •  Export initiatives

                              •  Feed-in-tariffs, risk mitigation
  Policy support
                              •  IPP vs. Public utilities

                              •  Development Bank financing
  Availability of financing
                              •  Export initiatives & vendor financing
   5	
  
BUSINESS MODEL
GEOTHERMAL


                 6	
  
Business Model - Development

Start-up
   Exploration/   Feasibility
   Detailed      Start of
            Pre-           
              Design &      Operation
            Feasibility
                  Construction




    = Rationale of how!
                 a company/ an industry!
                creates, delivers, and captures value!
                                                                     7	
  
EUROPEAN
DEVELOPMENT &
ACTIVITIES

                8	
  
European development!
and international activities of European
companies




                                           9	
  
GLOBAL
DEVELOPMENT


               10	
  
Africa, Asia-Pacific, Caribbean & Latin
America




                                         11	
  
OUTLOOK



           12	
  
concessions. And beyond the red tape, the incentives being pushed by the Indonesian
government – the drilling risk fund, relaxed import duties, pending $120–130 feed-in tariff (FiT),
and others – are all steps in the right direction to encourage investment.

Figure 2: Historical and expected global capacity additions by country, 2006–15 (MW)
 Capacity additions by country
          -46%          12%          -21%          -8%          -21%          72%          18%          51%          -5%


                                                                                                              751
                                                                                                                           715
 •  …..
    701

                                                                                                                                  Rest of world

                                                                                                 497                              Philippines

                              427                                                   421                                           Mexico
                 381
                                            337                                                                                   Kenya
                                                         310
                                                                       245                                                        New Zealand

                                                                                                                                  US

                                                                                                                                  Indonesia


   2006          2007         2008          2009         2010          2011         2012         2013         2014         2015

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
                                                                                                 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
                                                                                                                                  13	
  
High Growth Projection Geothermal Capacity by R egion, World Markets: 1
 i                      e          a                       d          1990-2020




                                                           (Source: Pik Research)
                                                                      ke            14	
  
Summary

•    Global growth vs. regional growth
•    Focus on local impact and business opportunity
•    Heat vs power opportunities
•    North American situation
•    Role of development and export-import banks


                                                       15	
  
Contact
Alexander Richter

ThinkGeoEnergy.com
alex@thinkgeoenergy.com

Follow ThinkGeoEnergy:

   Twitter: @thinkgeoenergy
   LinkedIn Group: ThinkGeoEnergy
   Flickr.com/thinkgeoenergy
   YouTube.com/thinkgeoenergy
   Slideshare.com/thinkgeoenergy



                                     16	
  

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Global geothermalsummit reykjavik_2012

  • 1. GEOTHERMAL (Regional) GROWTH … or how demand and availability of finance drives development Alexander Richter! ! ThinkGeoEnergy.com! @thinkgeoenergy! ! 19 September 2012 – 2nd Global Geothermal Energy Summit 2012, Reykjavik/ Iceland! 1  
  • 2. THE NEW ! THINK! GEOENERGY! ! to come:! - Supplier Directory! - Plant Map! - Publications 2  
  • 3. Geothermal growth – global vs. regional 3  
  • 5. Effects on international development ! last 2-3 years •  Interest vs. Capabilities Economic situation •  Growth & standstill •  Growing economies Energy demand •  Policy & competitiveness •  Technology, R&D Industry •  Export initiatives •  Feed-in-tariffs, risk mitigation Policy support •  IPP vs. Public utilities •  Development Bank financing Availability of financing •  Export initiatives & vendor financing 5  
  • 7. Business Model - Development Start-up Exploration/ Feasibility Detailed Start of Pre- Design & Operation Feasibility Construction = Rationale of how! a company/ an industry! creates, delivers, and captures value! 7  
  • 9. European development! and international activities of European companies 9  
  • 11. Africa, Asia-Pacific, Caribbean & Latin America 11  
  • 12. OUTLOOK 12  
  • 13. concessions. And beyond the red tape, the incentives being pushed by the Indonesian government – the drilling risk fund, relaxed import duties, pending $120–130 feed-in tariff (FiT), and others – are all steps in the right direction to encourage investment. Figure 2: Historical and expected global capacity additions by country, 2006–15 (MW) Capacity additions by country -46% 12% -21% -8% -21% 72% 18% 51% -5% 751 715 •  ….. 701 Rest of world 497 Philippines 427 421 Mexico 381 337 Kenya 310 245 New Zealand US Indonesia 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 13  
  • 14. High Growth Projection Geothermal Capacity by R egion, World Markets: 1 i e a d 1990-2020 (Source: Pik Research) ke 14  
  • 15. Summary •  Global growth vs. regional growth •  Focus on local impact and business opportunity •  Heat vs power opportunities •  North American situation •  Role of development and export-import banks 15  
  • 16. Contact Alexander Richter ThinkGeoEnergy.com alex@thinkgeoenergy.com Follow ThinkGeoEnergy: Twitter: @thinkgeoenergy LinkedIn Group: ThinkGeoEnergy Flickr.com/thinkgeoenergy YouTube.com/thinkgeoenergy Slideshare.com/thinkgeoenergy 16