Ukrainian society (May 2015)

The current situation in the Ukrainian society
May 2015
Natalya Kharchenko,
Executive Director of KIIS nkh@kiis.com.ua
Volodymyr Paniotto,
General Director of KIIS paniotto@kmis.kiev.ua

Plan
 KIIS info
 Level of well-being
 Tolerance
 Trust
 Linguistic-ethnic groups
 The attitude of Ukrainians to Russia and Russians
to Ukraine
 Independence of Ukraine
 Attitude to the EU, NATO, the Customs Union
 Euromaidan
 Propaganda
 Situation in the Donbas
 Migration
 Volunteering
2

KIIS info
Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) - is one of the
leading private research organizations in Ukraine (more than 20 years
of experience).
KIIS is working closely with the National University of "Kyiv-
Mohyla Academy“.
KIIS has extensive experience in projects of qualitative and
quantitative research. We implement about 100 projects of varying
difficulty every year.
THE COMPANY ORGANIZATION:
KIIS has a small permanent scientific and administrative staff, and
temporary research groups that are created when needed.
The staff includes 37 permanent and 600 part-time workers
(CATI interviewers, moderators of focus groups, regional supervisors,
interviewers).
MOTTO: REPUTATION IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN PROFIT
3

Regional composition
4
The presentation mainly used the following regional division.
Exclusion is marked specially .
West - Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne,
Ternopil, Khmelnytsky and Chernivtsi oblasts;
Central - Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy,
Chernihiv, Cherkasi oblasts and the city Kyiv;
South - Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kherson oblasts;
East - Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, Kharkiv oblasts,
Donbas - Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (only the territory
controlled by the authorities of Ukraine).

SELF-ASSESSMENT OF THE FINANCIAL STATUS
Approach that KIIS has used for many years is self-assessment of
the financial status of respondents. The question is phrased as
follows:
The respondents are to define their financial status themselves
according to the following scale:
 We do not even have enough money to eat
 We have enough money to eat, but it is hard to buy clothing and
shoes
 We have enough money for food and clothing and we can set
something aside, but it is not enough to buy expensive items (such as
a refrigerator or television)
 We can permit ourselves to buy some expensive items (such as a
television or refrigerator), but not everything we want
 We can permit ourselves everything we want
6

Subjective well-being 1994-2015
7
KIIS national monitoring survey, F2F, n=2000, 1994-2015 years.
51.7
47.2
11.4
17.8 16.8
8.7
18.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
We do not even have enough money for food, %

After the global crisis, in 2008, the poverty rate increased and then
fell to 9%. Now the poverty rate is increasing again.
We measure the
percentage of people
who consider that
they don’t have
enough money for
food, since 1994. For
10 years, from 1998
to 2008, the poverty
rate fell from 52% to
12%, and this is one
of the few, but
important
achievements of
Ukraine.
8

SHORT-TERM ECONOMIC PROGNOSES
 What do you think, over next year how will the economy of Ukraine
change?
ЧАСТИНАІ.«ЕКОНОМІЧНІ»ОЧІКУВАННЯ
НАСЕЛЕННЯІРІВЕНЬЗАДОВОЛЕНОСТІЖИТТЯМ
75
72
74
63
52
64
11
13
10
17
24
17
1
6
7
12
13
10
13
10
8
8
11
10
Donbass
East
South
Center
West
Ukraine
will be much or somewhat worse will be the same
will be much or somewhat better Hard to say
KIIS national poll, 18+, F2F, n=2040, March, 2015

LONG-TERM ECONOMIC PROGNOSES
 What do you think, over next 5 years how will the economy of
Ukraine change?
ЧАСТИНАІ.«ЕКОНОМІЧНІ»ОЧІКУВАННЯ
НАСЕЛЕННЯІРІВЕНЬЗАДОВОЛЕНОСТІЖИТТЯМ
29
27
39
19
18
23
11
16
14
9
10
11
15
30
29
51
52
42
46
27
18
21
20
23
Donbass
East
South
Center
West
Ukraine
will be much or somewhat worse will be the same
will be much or somewhat better Hard to say

REFORMS IN UKRAINE
 According to the research of KIIS in the spring of 2015, almost none
of the Ukrainians has experienced the positive results of reforms,
but the majority felt their negative consequences.
 Every fourth Ukrainian agrees to suffer from reforms if it will lead to
prosperity of the country.
 However, almost half of the citizens do not want to suffer from
reforms for Ukraine's success. They believe that reforms will not
change anything. In addition, their lives are already difficult enough
and they are not ready to bear additional losses.
 The highest priority task for Ukraine, according to the views of the
citizens, - fight against corruption and withdrawal from economic
crisis.
11

The Bogardus Scale
I AGREE TO ACCEPT REPRESENTATIVES OF THE
NATIONAL GROUPS AS...
Americans 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Belarusians 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Jews 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
And so on, total - 13 groups
13
family members ................... 1
close friends ........................ 2
neighbors ............................. 3
colleagues ........................... 4
residents of Ukraine ............ 5
Ukraine guests..................... 6
would not allow in Ukraine . 7

The xenophobia index 1994-2014
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
14
KIIS Monitoring survey, F2F, n=2000, 1994-2015 years

 The level of xenophobia is measured by Bogardus social
distance scale, index xenophobia – is the average of
social distances from Ukraine population to 13 ethnic
groups. For a long time it grew up and now it is
stabilized.
 From 1994 to 2001 the level of xenophobia was growing
due to spread of poverty, it was consistent with the
“scapegoat« theory. Then the level of xenophobia
decreased but the media effect of 11 September 2001
tragedy increased distrust of foreigners, and wars in
Afghanistan and Iraq contributed to the development of
xenophobia. Another factor is the elections which
emphasized ethnic differences.
15

The xenophobia index
16
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
All Ukraine
September 2013 October 2014

The xenophobia index
17
 Despite of the Maidan, war, high levels of migration and
the deterioration of living conditions, the average index
of xenophobia is not increased but even decreased a
little (from 4.15 to 4.01).
 As for certain ethnic groups, it can be noticed that the
attitude to Russian worsened and the attitude to Crimean
Tatars somehow improved.

Interethnic relations in the conflict zone
18
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Comparison of East under control of Ukraine and Occupied Donbas (10.2014)
East under control of Ukraine (Kharkiv oblast + partially Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts) Occupied Donbas
KIIS opinion poll, 18+, F2F, October 2014, East- N= 320, and Occupied Donbas - N = 142

Political trust and income
Belgium
Bulgaria
Switzerland
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Germany
Sweden
Estonia
Spain
Finland
France
United Kingdom
Greece
Croatia
Hungary Ireland
Israel
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Russia
Denmark
Slovenia
Slovakia
Ukraine
0
1
2
3
4
5
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000
Trustinpolitician(0:10)
Per capita GDP (PPP)
20

 Trust is one of the key concepts of democracy and market theories.
Trust contributes consolidation of the public and the creation of
communities in public sector, and it accelerates cooperation and
interpersonal exchange in the economic sphere.
 The higher level of trust in society, the higher indicators of economic
growth and investment in its economy and vice versa.
 Low trust reduces the ability of people to enter into a relationship,
the ability to negotiate and to conclude agreements, prevents the
spread of innovation and technology.
 According to European comparative studies, GDP per capita and the
level of political trust correlated: the higher the GDP, the higher the
trust, and Vice versa, the high level of trust gives the opportunity to
achieve high GDP (deviations - such as Greece - there are not very
often). Unfortunately, Ukraine is among countries which take one of
the last places on the trust and the last place on the GDP.
21

Dynamic of trust to the President of Ukraine
-100.0
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
May, 2000 Sept, 2004 March, 2005 March, 2007 Oct, 2009 March 2010 Feb, 2012 Sept, 2014 Feb, 2015
22
KIIS monitoring surveys, F2F, n=2000, 2000-2015 years

Personalized dynamics of trust to the
President
-90.0
-40.0
10.0
60.0
May, 2000 Sept, 2004
Kuchma
the balance of trust-distrust
-50.0
0.0
50.0
March, 2005 March, 2007 Oct 2009
Yushchenko
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
Sept, 2014 Feb, 2015
Poroshenko
-100.0
-50.0
0.0
50.0
March 2010 Feb, 2012 Nov, 2013 March 2014
Yanukovych
23
KIIS monitoring surveys, F2F, n=2000, 2000-2015 years

24
Trust to the social institutions
Trust, % Distrust, % Balance
Trust-
distrust
Church 62 17 45
Mass-media 41 28 12
Non-government
organizations
27 29 -2
Army 34 37 -2
Opposition 24 53 -29
President 22 66 -44
Militia 16 63 -47
Government 16 69 -53
Parlament 12 73 -61
2012
Trust, % Distrust, % Balance
trust-distrust
Army 76 16 60
President 68 24 44
Church 55 18 37
Ukrainian mass-
media
37 35 2
Government 39 51 -12
Militia 29 63 -34
Parliament 20 74 -54
Russian mass-
media
7 77 -70
2014
24
KIIS Omnibus , F2F, n=2000, 2012-2014
years

Census 2001:
Ukrainians 78%, Russians 17%, other 5%
KIIS uses more detailed scale
I consider myself ...
1) only Ukrainian
2) Ukrainian and Russian but more Ukrainian
3) equally Ukrainian and Russian
4) Russian and Ukrainian but more Russian
5) only Russian
26

Bi-ethnic group, October 2014
Language
preferences
Ukrainian
language
Russian
language Total
1)Only Ukrainian 66,0 34,0 100,0
2) Ukrainian and
Russian
10,2 89,8 100,0
3) Only Russian 2,0 98,0 100,0
27
KIIS Omnibus, F2F, n=2025, October 2014

The attitude of Ukrainians
to Russia and Russians to
Ukraine

Do you agree with the statement that there is a war
between Russia and Ukraine?
Yes -34%
Yes - 26%
Yes-% 70
No - 57% No - 59%
No - 19%
DS - 9%
DS -15%
DS - 10%
April 2014 August 2014 September 2014
Опитування “ГД “КМІС в Україні і Левада-Центру у Росії, 2014р.

30
KIIS poll in Ukraine and Levada-Center in Russia, 2008-2015 years
Dynamics of the positive attitude
of Ukrainians towards Russia and of Russians
towards Ukraine
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
In Ukraine to Russia In Russia to Ukraine
% of persons of Ukraine with positive attitude
to Russia and % of persons of Russia with positive
attitude to Ukraine

Dynamics of positive attitudes
to V. Putin and Ukraine
15
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
Jan
2000
Jul
2000
Jan
2001
Jul
2001
Jan
2002
Jul
2002
Jan
2003
Jul
2003
Jan
2004
Jul
2004
Jan
2005
Jul
2005
Jan
2006
Jul
2006
Jan
2007
Jul
2007
Jan
2008
Jul
2008
Jan
2009
Jul
2009
Jan
2010
Jul
2010
Jan
2011
Jul
2011
Jan
2012
Jul
2012
Jan
2013
Jul
2013
Jan
2014
Jul
2014
Jan
2015
Approve of Vladimir Putin Good attitude towards Ukraine Euromaidan
Annexation of Crimea
Donbas conflict
Active phase of
2nd Chechen
war
Shot down
Tu-154
over the Black Sea
Tuzla
conflict
Orange
revolution
Russian-
Georgian
war
Worsening of
Russian-
Georgian
relations
Levada-Center polls in Russia, 2000-2015 years

Regional differentiation in the attitude of
Ukrainians towards Russia, the Russians and
the Russian government
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
West Central South East Whole Ukraine
25
32
59
83
48
66 63
81
91
74
2 3
16
69
21
To Russia To Russians to the Russian leadership
% of adults in Ukraine with positive or very positive attitude to …
KIIS Omnibus,18+, F2F, n=2035, September 2014.
Regional composition:
West - Volyn, Zakarpattia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Rivne, Ternopil, Khmelnytsky and Chernivtsi oblasts;
Central - Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy, Chercasi, Chernihiv oblasts and the city Kyiv;
South - Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Kherson oblasts;
East - Donetsk, Kharkiv oblasts. We have no possibility to conduct survey in Lugansk region at this time.

“When you think of the Ukrainian way of life, do you associate it more closely with
Western values or with Russian values?“ (n=2,039)
Values Most Closely Associated with
Ukrainian Way of Life
Differences by Region
East – 51 R 9 W 11 B
North – 25 R 25 W 6 B
Center – 37 R 26 W 6 B
South – 44 R 12 W 14 B
West – 7 R 53 W 18 B
IFES in Ukraine, Funded by USAID, Fieldwork -KIIS, April 8-15 2014, , F2F, National poll, n=2039

16%
13%
2%
3%
3%
4%
4%
12%
14%
14%
27%
28%
DK/NR
Other
Peaceful
Independent, patriotic
Respect for traditions
Stability
Social protection, services
Economic devp.
Respectful of people
Rule of law
Democracy
Rights and freedoms
“What values does Ukraine share with the West?” (n=499)
Values Ukraine shares with Russia/West
IFES in Ukraine, Funded by USAID, Fieldwork -KIIS, April 8-15 2014, , F2F, National poll, n=2039

Indicator
What would you like to see the relations between
Ukraine and Russia?
1. Relations of Ukraine with Russia should be like with other
states - with closed borders, visas and customs
2. Ukraine and Russia should be independent, however,
friendly countries - with open borders, without visas and
customs
3. Ukraine and Russia should unite in one state
1+2 – support of independence

How would you like to see the relations
between Ukraine and Russia?(%)
45
46
2 7
They should be the same as
with other countries - with
closed borders, visa and
customs
Ukraine and Russia should
be independent but friendly
- with no visa, no customs
and with open borders
Ukraine and Russia should
be united in one country
Difficult to answer
KIIS Omnibus, F2F, n=2022, May 2015

38
How would you like to see the relations between
Ukraine and Russia?(%)
KIIS Omnibus, May 2013, F2F, all Ukraine, n=2030
KIIS Omnibus, May 2015, F2F, all Ukraine (except Crimea and part of Luhansk region), n=2022
11
69
14
45 46
2
They should be like with other
states - with closed borders,
visas and customs
Ukraine and Russia should be
independent, however, friendly
countries - with open borders,
without visas and customs
Ukraine and Russia should unite
in one state
May 2013 May 2015

Ukraine and Russia should unite in one state?(%)
by Regions
KIIS Omnibus, May 2013, F2F, all Ukraine, n=2030
KIIS Omnibus, May 2015, F2F, all Ukraine (except Crimea and part of Luhansk region), n=2022
3
8
20
28
24
1 1
2
6
West Center South East Crimea
May 2013 May 2015

Dynamic of Ukraine’s independence
support
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
01/91 01/92 01/93 01/94 01/95 01/96 01/97 01/98 01/99 01/00 01/01 01/02 01/03 01/04 01/05 01/06 01/07 01/08 01/09 01/10 01/11 01/12 01/13 01/14 01/15
(independence supporters per cent among the all adults
Russia’s advance
toward Touzla
Russia’s intrusion
into Georgia
Chechen wars of Russia
Annexion of
the Crimea

The level of support of independence of
Ukraine has considerably increased, but
it partly related to
1) The lack of voters in Crimea
2) With the problems in research in areas
that are not controlled by Ukraine

Attitude to the EU, NATO,
the Customs Union

28
19
22
5
3
11
28
32
32
56
74
51
24
33
31
25
15
25
20
16
15
14
9
13
Donbass
East
South
Center
West
Whole Ukraine
Nonalignment neither to the
European Union not to the
Custom Union
FOREIGN POLICY COURSE OF UKRAINE
 What integration direction Ukraine should go?
Accession to the
European Union
Accession
to the Customs Union
Hard to say/ No
answers
ЧАСТИНАII.ЗОВНІШНЬОПОЛІТИЧНІОРІЄНТАЦІЇ

Accession to NATO membership
 Please imagine that referendum on whether Ukraine must join NATO is
taking place now. You can vote for joining the union, oppose or abstain - not to
participate in voting. What is your choice?
51
50
55
28
15
33
26
26
25
47
63
43
12
13
14
9
5
10
11
12
6
15
17
14
Donbass
East
South
Center
West
Whole Ukraine
Against accession Hard to say/No answersI will not voteFor accession
ЧАСТИНАII.ЗОВНІШНЬОПОЛІТИЧНІОРІЄНТАЦІЇ

 The Euromaidan is a starting point for the modern
history of Ukraine.
Research on the Maidan , which was held by KIIS and
Fund "DIF“, shows invalidity of somemyths that are still
used in the information war. In particular, it shows that
the vast majority of participants (80-90%) took part in
protest independently and wasn’t organized by parties
or public organizations.
46

Three polls on the Maidan
Polls:
1) December, 7-8, weekend, Maidan-meeting
2) December, 20, Maidan-camp
3) February, 3, weekdays, Maidan-Sich (analog
of Zaporizhzhya Sich)

Three pools on the Maidan
If you arrived, was it is organized or you arrived yourself?
Maidan-
meeting
Maidan-
camp
Maidan-
Sich
It is organized by one of the parties 1,8 11,9 3.0
It is organized by one of the public
organizations (movements)
6,3 11,9 13.3
I arrived himself 91,9 76,1 83.5
Where are you from?
Maidan-meeting
December, 7-8, 2014
Мaidan-camp
December, 20, 2014
Мaidan-Sich
February, 3, 2014
From Kiev 49,8 19,3 12.4
From the province 50,2 80,7 87.6

The way the propaganda works
Why did Malaysian plane crash on July 2014 in eastern Ukraine?
TrusttoTVnews
Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/02/26/russian-and-ukrainian-tv-
viewers-live-on-different-planets/

Information war against Ukraine
 Information component of a hybrid war against Ukraine is no less powerful mean
of influence than traditional weapon. It gave the opportunity to annex the
Crimea, provoked the armed conflict in the Donbas and provided support the
actions of Russia and pro-Russian forces in some regions of the country.
 The logical chain of Russian propaganda:
 The protests on the Maidan in the winter of 2013-2014 were organized by the
Americans and the radical nationalists;
 As a result, the nationalists seized the power and now threaten the Russian-speaking
population of Ukraine which lives mainly in the South and the East;
 Crimea was in danger but voluntarily joined to Russia and was saved from the
repression of the nationalists;
 Donbas rebelled and is now fighting for independence;
 The conflict in Ukraine is a civil war of criminal power of the nationalists against
average citizens.

The most supported propaganda statements
in Russia
 Data of surveys of Russian Levada-Center , September 2014- May 2015 years:
Do you agree or disagree that as a result of Kiev Maidan in February the
state upheaval happened?
Data for Russia
Agree 83
Disagree 10
What is your attitude toward United States of America?
Favorable 12
Unfavorable 81
Do you support joining of Crimea to Russia?
Yes 84
No 7

9
26
80
60
All Ukraine Donbas
Trust Do not trust
Trust to Russian mass-media
Support of pro-Russian point of view
Joining of Crimea to
Russia
11
27
81
57
All Ukraine Donbas
Support Do not support
Attitude to USA
59
29
22
42
All Ukraine Donbas
Favorable Unfavorable
Attitude to Maidan
61
41
23
33
All Ukraine Donbas
People's protest
Nationalist, anti-russian forces' struggle
ATO is a punitive action
against civilians
19
38
62
35
All Ukraine Donbas
Agree Disagree
Data: KIIS Omnibus, February 2015, F2F, all Ukraine (except Crimea and part of Luhansk region) , n=2013

Effectiveness of Russian propaganda in
different regions of Ukraine
 Index of effectiveness of Russian
propaganda (IERP) is based on 5
variables: negative perception of
Maidan-2014, negative attitude to USA,
support of Crimea annexation,
disapproval of anti-terrorist operation
of Ukrainian army, trust to Russian
mass-media. If IERP equals 100, it
means that every person support all 5
statements; 0 means that nobody
support any.
 Eastern and Southern Ukraine are the most receptive regions.
 These regions are predominantly Russian-speaking and traditionally vote for pro-
Russian politicians and parties.
 Presently the population of these regions is a main target of both propaganda and
intimidation by acts of terrorism.

Effectiveness of Russian propaganda in
different regions of Ukraine
 For calculation of Index of effectiveness of Russian propaganda (IERP) the data of recent KIIS Omnibus
survey (all population 18+ except Crimea) were used.
Data: KIIS Omnibus, February 13-24, 2015 , F2F,
all Ukraine (except Crimea and part of Luhansk
region), n=2013

Humanitarian Aid Needs Monitoring
 The project estimated the humanitarian aid needs of community residents
in the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The research was initiated
and conducted on demand of the Rinat Akhmetov Humanitarian Center and
“Dopomozhemo TV“.
 Surveys were conducted by Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS)
applying the Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing method (CATI).
Respondents at the age 18 years and over were interviewed.
 Sample size: about 2100 respondents from 26-29 most needing
communities in Donbas (Sometimes it was not possible to hold the survey
in some settlements due to telephone communications failure).
 According to the September 2014 survey results communities were
classified, joining under one class if having similar aid needs structure
(hierarchical cluster analysis method applied). Such an analysis made it
possible to distinguish a group of communities, the residents of which are
in the most aid need, and focus the further needs research on those
particularly.
 In the inquiries, held from October, 2014 to March, 2015, the current
resident needs in foodstuff, medical supplies and non-grocery goods were
investigated, as well as the work of medical and educational facilities,
communications status. 59

Situation Changes in the Community
61
35%
32%
15%
16%
32%
3%
3%
3%
1%
6%
8%
9%
21%
18%
11%
3%
4%
16%
7%
3%
September
October
November
December
March
How has the situation in you community changed over the past week?
Slightly better
Significantly better
Slightly worse
Significantly worse
14% 38%
In comparison with November-December 2014, the perception of the situation has
significantly improved.
KIIS phone survey of most needing communities in Donbas on request of the Rinat Akhmetov Humanitarian Center , n=2100,
December, 2014-2015 years.

Basic Needs
34
50
45
38
58
45
household goodsmedical suppliesfood products
% of population lacking…
March December
The deficit of medical supplies and household goods decreased, but the
situation with food products remains difficult.

Real-life Situation Estimation
5
48
43
4
7
63
30
1
Not so bad, you can live
on
Life is hard, but bearable Not possible to bear our
misery
Hard to say
Which of the statements is most relevant to current
situation?
December March
% settlement ‘s adults
In March 2015 the number of people, estimating the situation as bearable (“life is hard,
but bearable”) has increased by 15% comparably with December,2014.

Stressful Situations across the Year
Stressful situations % of references
Experience bombing 80
Feeling helpless 57
Turn out to be without means of living 47
Experiencing severe illness of relatives 24
Experiencing severe illness, surgery 22
Loss of one's work, becoming forcedly unemployed 21
Loss of one's self-belief 20
Loss of belief in mankind, encounter with meanness 16
Experiencing death of relatives 12
Serious conflicts with others 5
Exposure to threats, intimidation 3
Being a victim of abuse or robbery 2
Being a victim of theft or fraud practices 2
Living in close to suicide state 1
Experiencing other stressful situations 47
There was no stressful situations 56
December, 2014.

Assessment of the Level of Migration:
Methodology
 Usual surveys do not allow us to estimate the number of those
who left - because if the whole family left, it does not fall into the
sample. In addition, the size of our sample is small, and the
evaluation of migration would be possible only for the region as
a whole.
 The idea is to look for those who left through social networks: we
carry out a normal random sample and ask a respondent to
select five the closest families and tell who left, and who
remained. This allows us to:
 To obtain information about the families all the members of which left;
 To increase the effective sample size (in particular, in 3rd wave we
interviewed 700 respondents and received information about 5,200
residents of the towns included in the sample).

Fragment of the Questionnaire
And now several unusual questions. Please, make a list of five your closest
friends, who constantly live in [NAME THE TOWN] or have lived there in
January this year. These should be people from different families. We will
not ask who they are or their relation to you.
WAIT UNTIL THE LISTS ARE READY.
We have only 3 questions on each of them:
 Does this person continue to live in the town now or has left?
 If he(she) left, did he(she) went by him(her)self or with someone
from his(her) family?
 How many people were in the family and how many of them have
left?
Family Number of the family members Number of those who left
1
2
3
4
5

Migration Rates
32%
23%
27%
30%
October November December March

Migration
 According to the Ministry of Social Policy (May 21, 2015) in
Ukraine there were almost there were almost 1,3 million
internally displaced persons. Most of them were registered in
the areas around the conflict zone, in Kiev and Kiev region.
 According to the operative data of the Ministry of
Emergencies of Ukraine (May 31, 2015) nearly 874 thousand
people moved.
 Data of different institutions can differ due to those people
that live on the occupied territories but registered as
internally displaced persons in the Ukrainian localities in
order to receive social payments.
69

70
Оригінал: http://unhcr.org.ua/attachments/article/1244/map47.jpg

Characteristics of the internally
displaced persons
 Disproportionate number of women, children and people of
retirement age compared to the average data in Ukraine;
 Only about 9% of registered internally displaced persons (IDPs)
indicated that they need work (~58% of the estimated economically
active able-bodied IDPs);
 One of the main reasons why immigrants rejected from finding work
- the belief that their situation is temporary and they will go to home
in the near future. Other reasons – caring for sick person,
unwillingness to break the previous employment relationship,
postponement looking for a job;
 Among internally displaced persons who applied to the State
employment service, higher proportion of well-educated persons and
professionals than among registered unemployed in Ukraine in
general.
71

Migration plans
72
82
15
0
1
1
December
No
Yes, I would like to, but I can't
Yes, I'm going to leave until
summer
Yes, I'm going to leave, but
don't know when
Hard to say
89
6
1
1
3
March
No
Yes, I would like to, but I can't
Yes, I'm going to leave until
summer
Yes, I'm going to leave, but
don't know when
Hard to say
In another region of Ukraine 42%
In Russia 30%
In other place within Donbas 5%
In Crimea 1%
Europe, USA, Canada 5%
Hard to say 17%
Please tell me where you or your family members are going to move?
December, 2014- March, 2015.

When will the conflict in Donbas be over?
73
18%
22%
9%
3%
3%
2%
44%
Нескольких месяцев
Следующего года
Через 2-3 года
Через 4-5 лет
Затянется боле чем на 5 лет
Никогда
Не знаю
What do You think, when the conflict in Donbas will be over?
It will happen in...
Couple of months
Next year
2-3 years
4-5 years
Will last more, then 5 years
Never
I don’t know
40% of respondents
think, that the conflict
will be over within a
year
December, 2014.

Should we try to find the compromise with Russia and
the leaders DNR and LNR for peace in Donbas?
28
23 24
16
9
55
24
14
5
1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Peace at any cost, it
is necessary to
accept any
compromises
For peace it is
necessary to accept
serious
compromises - but
not all
Some compromise is
acceptable, but not
any serious
concessions
No concessions at
all, even if you have
a war
Difficalt to say
Ukraine
Donbas
51%
79%
74
National poll KIIS -DI, n=2035, September 2014

Public opinion on Minsk
agreement
 Large majorities in all regions approve Minsk agreement. In Donbas, both rebel-
held areas and Ukrainian-controlled territories support Minsk solution of the
conflict.
83
74
8
12
Rebel-held Donbas
Nation
Approve Disapprove
Data are taken from all-nation (except Crimea) KIIS recent survey conducted in February-March 2015. 75

THE STATUS OF DONBAS (Ukraine)
 In your opinion what status Donetsk and Lugansk regions should
have?
9.3
0.6
0.6
3.1
10.7
37.9
37.7
Hard to say / No answer
Regions as parts of Russia
Autonomous Republics as parts of
Russia
Independent states
Autonomous Republics as parts of
Ukraine
Regions as parts of Ukraine but with
enhanced rights
Regions as parts of Ukraine with the
same rights
ЧАСТИНАVI.ТЕРИТОРІАЛЬНИЙУСТРІЙУКРАЇНИІ
СЕПАРАТИСТСЬКІНАСТРОЇ
All-nation (except Crimea) KIIS survey conducted in February-March 2015, n=2013.

West Center South East
Donbas
(the territories
controlled by
Ukraine)
Regions as parts of Ukraine with
the same rights which they have
now
56.1 38.4 27.6 25.0 14.6
Regions as parts of Ukraine but
with enhanced rights in
economic, social and
humanitarian spheres
25.6 45.4 47.3 40.9 22.0
Autonomous Republics as parts
of Ukraine
6.0 6.0 15.9 16.8 27.6
Independent states 2.0 1.7 1.3 7.5 4.9
Autonomous Republics as parts
of Russia
0.2 0.7 1.3 0.2 1.6
Regions as parts of Russia 0.4 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.6
Hard to say / No answer
9.8 7.3 5.9 8.7 27.6
THE STATUS OF THE DONBAS
(regions of Ukraine)
In your opinion what status Donetsk and Lugansk regions
should have?
All-nation (except Crimea) KIIS survey conducted in February-March 2015, n=2013.

THE STATUS OF DONBAS (“DNR” and “LNR”)
KIIS and “Telekritika” syrvey, totally 220 respondents were interviewed on the territory of “DNR” and “LNR”, February, 2015.
In “DNR” and “LNR” half of the respondents consider optimal for Donbas one of three
scenarios in which Donbas remains in the country. 26% would choose the independence
of their region and16% would joined to Russia.
12%
20%
18%
26%
16%
8%
Donbas is a part of Ukraine with the same
rights as before
Decentralization for Donbas
Autonomy of Donbas
The independence of Donbas
Donbas is a part of the Russian Federation
Hard to say
What do you think what the solution from the situation in Donbas
would be optimal?
"DNR" and "LNR"

13
22
32
44
48
38
28
52
54
46
38
45
20
11
8
3
2
6
6
1
0
0
0
1
34
13
6
6
11
11
Donbas
East
South
Center
West
Whole Ukraine
Unitary, regions have the same powers Unitary,
decentralization
Federalization Division into several states Hard to say/ No answers
TERRITORIAL STRUCTURE OF UKRAINE
 State system of Ukraine should be...?

SEPARATIVE MOODS
 It will be better for my locality, if it will be separated from
Ukraine
40
80
80
97
88
86
22
4
11
1
4
5
38
16
9
1
8
9
Donbas
East
South
Center
West
Whole Ukraine Rather or totally
disagree
Rather or totally agree
Hard to say / No
answer

THE SUPPORT OF SEPARATISM:
Direct question vs. «Secret ballot» procedure
 For my locality it would be better if it separates from Ukraine, %
of those who agrees
5
4
1.4
10.9
4
22
5.6
3.1
1.7
7.5
8.6
26
All Ukraine West Center South East Donbas
F2F interview "Secret ballot"

Attitudes to civic participation and
volunteering
 Ukrainians’ interest in different types of civic participation is growing
with time.
 The most widespread practice during 2014-2015 – material aid to the
Army, internally displaced persons, participants of Euromaidan. Only a
small percentage of Ukrainians took part in volunteering for civic
movements and NGOs. Interest in volunteering and readiness to it is
much lower than to providing of material help to the victims of armed
conflict in Donbas (soldiers, civilians).
 A quarter to a third of Ukrainians express their interest to such types of
civic society activities as participation in public hearings and meetings,
reports about corruption and infrastructural problems to authorized
agencies, discussions of draft laws.
 Each third person thinks that the problems must be solved by state,
not by ordinary people. Each fifth belongs to vulnerable categories; the
same number has no time and motivation to participate in civic
initiatives; the same number does not know about possibilities to
participate.

Participation in volunteering and charity
activities to help the army and IDPs
In October, 2014 44% of Ukrainians said they helped the army and displaced persons during
the year. The same number did not do it and do not plan to do. Other 7% were going to help
until the end of 2014.
KIIS Omnibus, n=2025, October, 2014
5%
44%
7%
4%
0%
2%
2%
2%
5%
7%
8%
11%
27%
Hard to say
I didn't participate in any of above mentioned activities and I don't plan to
do it in a short time
I didn't participate in any of above mentioned activities, but I plan to do it
by the end of the year
Other
I personally traveled in the area of ATO to provide volunteer assistance
I bought military and protective equipment, etc. for the Ukrainian army
I helped to provide housing for displaced persons
I made repost of requests for help in social networks
I bought foods and medicine for displaced persons
I transferred the money to persons displaced from area of ATO
I bought foods and medicine for wounded military
I transferred the money to support wounded military
I support Ukrainian army by transfering of the money (including SMS
sending to number 565, transfer to cards, etc)

Ukrainian society (May 2015)

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