Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Economic and Political Developments in Ukraine

29 views

Published on

This presentation is made by Nataliia Shapoval. Presented during the Development Day conference 2019.

Published in: Economy & Finance
  • Positions Available Now! We currently have several openings for social media workers. ♥♥♥ http://t.cn/AieXipTS
       Reply 
    Are you sure you want to  Yes  No
    Your message goes here
  • Be the first to like this

Economic and Political Developments in Ukraine

  1. 1. Economic and Political Developments in Ukraine Development Day, 2019 Nataliia Shapoval, Kyiv School of Economics
  2. 2. First time in the history – majority party and high voting rate • 73,22% Zelensky against 24,45% Poroshenko at elections 254 43 26 25 20 6 1 1 1 1 46 26 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 "Servant of the people" Opposition Platform - For Life OO Batkivshchyna European Solidarity "Voice" Opposition bloc Svoboda Self-help Association United Center White Church Together Self-nominated Vakant
  3. 3. 1. SN is almost monolith. Dubinskii is not there ;) 2. HOLOS is in-between – sometimes with SN, sometimes with opposition. Depends on each bill
  4. 4. 23 bills IMORE (reforms)
  5. 5. Yet, popular support is tricky 37.5% of respondents think that the events in Ukraine are developing in the right direction (in September 2019 -57%, in October 2019- 45%), 35% - that the events are developing in the wrong direction direction (in September - 17%, in October - 29%).
  6. 6. Business expectations are growing https://sapiens.com.ua/ua/publication-single-page?id=97 Index of consumers expectations inn Ukraine (16+) Index of current situation Index of consumer moods Index of economic expectatoins
  7. 7. Trust is much higher than with the previous government PresidentPresident Parliament Government Local administration Mayors/village head
  8. 8. Attitudes of Russian population to Ukrainians improved Dynamics of positive attitudes to other country people. Red - ”Russia to Ukrainians”
  9. 9. TV – and tycoons are loosing audience Social Network TV News website Radio Print What channels did you use over last 30 days to get the news
  10. 10. News are getting more positive Share of negative news
  11. 11. Case of Valeria Gontareva, Ex-Governor of the Central Bank
  12. 12. Did you hear the song "Quarter 95" about V. Gontareva's burned down house? 58.228.2 13.6 Так, чув(ла) Знаю, що була пісня, але особисто не чув(ла) Не знаю і не чув(ла) Yes I know, it exists, but didn’t hear Don’t know, didn’t hear
  13. 13. Where exactly did you hear the song "Quarter 95" about V. Gontareva's burned down house? 0.2 0.8 5.8 14.5 15.3 31.5 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 По радіо Отримав(ла) посилання На інформаційному сайті новин По телевізору У соцмережі На YoutubeYoutube Social Network TV News website Got the link Radio
  14. 14. What emotions did you evoke from the song "Quarter 95" about V. Gontareva's house? 5.4 3.0 1.6 2.4 4.8 9.2 10.3 12.6 13.6 16.1 24.9 25.0 29.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 Важко відповісти Інше Гордість Захват Радість Задоволення Тривогу Гнів Жодних емоцій Сум Сором Обурення СміхLaugh Resentment Shame Sadness No emotions Anger Anxiety Satisfaction Happiness Delight Honor Other Difficult to answer
  15. 15. 22.0 18.1 16.1 28.0 15.8 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 Абсолютно прийнятним Скоріше прийнятним Скоріше неприйнятним Абсолютно неприйнятним Важко відповісти How acceptable is humor to you personally? Very acceptable Rather acceptable Rather unacceptable Absolutely unacceptable Difficult to answer
  16. 16. 19.6 38.8 10.5 10.3 16.3 4.4 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 Дуже подобається Скоріше подобається Скоріше не подобається Дуже не подобається Не дивлюся шоу Важко відповісти How do you feel about the Quarter 95 show? Like very much Rather like Rather dislike Significantly dislike Didn’t watch Difficult to answer
  17. 17. 17.9 11.3 6.5 2.9 57.9 3.5 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 Значно погіршилося Скоріше погіршилося Скоріше покращилося Значно покращилося Не змінилося Важко відповісти Has your attitude to the Quarter 95 show changed since you heard the song about V. Gontareva's house? Significantly worse Rather worse Rather better Significantly better Didn’t Change Difficult to answer
  18. 18. 14.0 22.4 19.3 31.8 12.5 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 Однозначно так Скоріше так Скоріше ні Однозначно ні Важко відповісти Do you have sympathy for V. Gontareva for the burning of her house? Clearly yes Rather yes Rather no Clearly no Difficult to answer
  19. 19. There are 2 ways where it can go 2 MINISTRY` MACRO FORECAST OF GROWTH 2020-22 6.5% GROWTH HINGES ON REFORMS & TRUST OF INVESTORS • wind and solar power • real estate (commercial and tourist) • privatization and concessions • transport infrastructure • production of building materials and mining for energy resources FDI GROWTH will trigger PRODUCTIVITY OF CAPITAL & LABOUR GROWTH Optimistic 4.8- 6.5%Moderate 3.7- 4.1% INVESTMENT & CAPITAL FORMATION
  20. 20. Unexpectedly – the government started structural market reforms DRIVERS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH ENABLERS labour market reform deregulation digitalization anti-trust Land reform 1 bln USD to the budget “Small” privatization up to ~6 bln UAH in 2020 “Large-scale” privatization (21 enterprise) up to ~6 bln UAH in 2020 Selling banks non-performing loans 565 bln UAH Legalization of gambling Exports increase 2 times by 2024
  21. 21. There are clear signs that work is in progress 8 800 enterprises for privatization Concept of the National Wealth Fund Defense contracts will go through ProZorro Package of legislation to demonopolize alcohol production, privatize Ukrspirt Opened all decisions of StateGeoCadastre Fired more than 10 heads of SOEs, 10 geocadasre senior officials ACCA, improved trade relations with China, Ukraine included into the USA list of courtiers with trade preferences Law on Concessions Deregulation package 21 large enterprises prepared for privatization
  22. 22. And some hard data suggests that economic situation is improving 64 place from 71 in Doing Business B from B- in Fitch credit rating B from B- in S&P long- term sovereign rating 15.5% from 16.5% (1%) central bank interest rate
  23. 23. * Based on modelling of Klaus Deininger and Faruk Khan (the World Bank) and Oleg Nivievskyi (Kyiv School of Economics) 70% COUNTRY TERRITORY 40+ MLN HECTARES ~1000-6000 USD PER HECTARE* LAND MARKET STARTS ON OCTOBER 1st, 2020
  24. 24. • Odessa Portside Plant • Sumykhimprom • Oriana (plastic) CHEMISTRY • Centrenergo • Khmelnytsk- • Mykolaiv- • Kharkiv- • Zaporizhzhia- • Ternopiloblenergo ENERGY DISTRIBUTION • Dniprovska- • Khersonska- • Kryvorizka- • Odeska - • Severodonetska Power Station ENERGY GENERATION • United Mining and Chemical Company • Krasnolymanska Coal Company EXTRACTIVE INDUSTRY • Indar (insulin) PHARMACEUTICALS • Ukragroleasing FINANCIAL LEASING • Electrovazhmash ELECTIC EQUIPMENT • President-hotel REAL ESTATE ”LARGE_SCALE” PRIVATIZATION
  25. 25. 6 POTENTIAL FOR BILATERAL TRADE INTENSIFICATION • China • South Korea • Mexico • Qatar • Vietnam • Norway • Singapore • Hong Kong HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR TRADE INTENSIFICATION + 13 BLN USD • United States • Canada, • 8 EU countries (Ireland, Sweden, Slovenia, Germany, Denmark, United Kingdom, Finland, France) • Switzerland • Japan* Based on modelling of Trade+ Center of Kyiv School of Economics for TOP-20 prospective markets UKRAINIAN EXPORTERS EXPAND INTO NEW GLOBAL MARKETS
  26. 26. Thank you!

×