Driving Disrupted: Driverless Cars Change Everything

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The autonomous vehicle, driverless or self-driving car will be one of the greatest technological developments of the next decade (if not all time).
It will profoundly change life on earth.

For the past century our car-centric culture has shaped infrastructure and ideals, landscape and lifestyle, ethics and enterprise. We rely on the mobility that cars provide us more than ever, but the car’s purpose and meaning changes as the driver fades out.

When the car drives itself, what we do in our cars and with our cars is exponentially different. When the car is intelligent, intuitive and adaptive, our relationship to the car alters. When the car builds itself, environments and economies are reshaped.

This report looks at the players, technologies and trends in the autonomous vehicle space and paints a picture of probable futures for citizens, businesses and marketers.

Buckle up. Bumpy roads ahead.

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Driving Disrupted: Driverless Cars Change Everything

  1. 1. Driving Disrupted: Driverless Cars Change Everything
  2. 2. 2 The autonomous vehicle, driverless or self-driving car will be one of the greatest technological developments of the next decade (if not all time). It will profoundly change life on earth. For the past century our car-centric culture has shaped infrastructure and ideals, landscape and lifestyle, ethics and enterprise. We rely on the mobility that cars provide us more than ever, but the car’s purpose and meaning changes as the driver fades out. When the car drives itself, what we do in our cars and with our cars is exponentially different. When the car is intelligent, intuitive and adaptive, our relationship to the car alters. When the car builds itself, environments and economies are reshaped. This report looks at the players, technologies and trends in the autonomous vehicle space and paints a picture of probable futures for citizens, businesses and marketers. Buckle up. Bumpy roads ahead. From Automobiles to Auto Mobility!
  3. 3. 3 Automatic Autopilot Ships have been using “self-steering gear” since the 1950s, while the first “autopiloting” of an airplane occurred in 1914. The “Ottopilot” in the movie Airplane is an apropos metaphor epitomizing the joys of sitting back and letting the machine do all the work. flightclub.jalopnik.comnobscotusps.orgSources:
  4. 4. 4 Driverless Visions in Low Gear Since the car was invented automakers have gradually introduced automation - from automatic shift to adaptive cruise control, self-parking to collision-avoidance, lane-keeping assistance to brake-assist and traction control. The introduction of new driverless technologies will be a gradual one, slowly upshifting us into the future.
  5. 5. 5 Science Fiction to Science Fact: Autonomous Cars Shaped by Hollywood REALITY FICTION 2018 • Daimler, GM and Ford expect to release self- driving models • When several sources predict autonomous cars will be standard issue Blade Runner Minority Report 2015 Hoverboards Back to the 
 Future Part III 2019 Anti-gravity, flying cars I, Robot 2054 Police can override autonomous vehicle software 2084 Drivers replaced with robots 2263 Autonomous Flying Cars The Fifth Element 2015 2035 Fully autonomous cars • Mobileye bolt on hands- free kit on sale • GM offering “super cruise” on Cadillacs • Google’s driverless car available to public • Volvo to start selling driverless cars • Nissan to start selling driverless cars • Tesla to offer “full autopilot” capability • GM, Mercedes-Benz, Audi, Nissan, BMW and Renault to release semi- autonomous vehicles • Volvo will sell “crash-free” autonomous car • Jaguar to launch driverless car • Most cars will operate independent from human control • IEEE estimates that up to 75% of all vehicles will be autonomous Demolition Man 2032 Auto-mode cars Total Recall Sources:WSJ Wikipedia • Tesla cars will be 90% autonomous • Audi to start selling low-speed autonomous cars 2016 2017 2019-2020 2020 2024 2025 2026-2035 2035 2040
  6. 6. 6 The oldest and most extensive driverless Personal Rapid Transport (PRT) system has been operating in Morgantown, West Virginia since 1975. Heathrow Airport has been using PRT vehicles since 2011. The newest, most modern PRT system launched in Suncheon, South Korea while Sardinia, Italy launched driverless buses earlier this year. Today’s Driverless Vehicles Look Like Props in a 70s SciFi Flick Governing eltis.orgSources:
  7. 7. An entirely new industry of DIY “autonomous driving kits” is being born – loosely inspired by Knight Rider’s KITT– to turn manual cars into driverless cars. This will make aftermarket upgrades affordable, such as the $10,000 “bolt-on” driverless system called “Cruise.” Retro and vintage cars turned driverless give new meaning to “Back to the Future.” Bolt-On Driverless Systems are Reminiscent of 80s TV Shows
  8. 8. 8 Auto design is converging with aeronautic design, such as the autonomous “Aeromobil.” Autos are not only becoming more intelligent, they’re becoming more modular, adaptable and transmutable. Next: the “auto-mutation” of the autonomous automobile. Design Seems Inspired by Transformer Toys and Video Games
  9. 9. 9 Who & What’s Driving Autonomousness?
  10. 10. 10 Loudest Voices Coming from Auto, Tech & Academia Co-Founder of Google & Leader of Google X MIT Autonomous Expert & Prof. of Mechanical and Ocean Engineering CEO of General Motors CEO & Co-Founder of Udacity Co-Founder of PayPal & Palantir / Investor Autonomous Car Influencers & Champions CEO of Tesla / Inventor & Investor in Disruptive Tech Elon MuskSergey Brin Mary Barra Sebastian Thrun John Leonard Peter Thiel
  11. 11. 11 40 Beam Telepresence Robots Autonomous Liferaft Automated Robots Deliver Food to Hospital Patients Volvo European Safe Road Trains for the Environment Project NOAA Solar Ocean Explorer Adjacent Autonomous Driving Devices Amazon Delivery Drones HOSPITAL BOTS DRONESLIFERAFTS iTRUCKING SUBMARINES TELEPRESENCE UNMANNED TANKS Advances Across Industries Are Leapfrogging Driverless Cars TELEMATICS DARPA’s Gladiator Mobile Weather Data Collection Network
  12. 12. 12 Local Governments Are Committing to Driverless Infrastructure… “An amendment condoned by The United Nations Convention on road traffic will soon allow testing of autonomous vehicles in the European Union, Mexico, Chile and Russia.”Source: Insurance Journal “Michigan is building a driverless town for testing autonomous cars.” Source: technologyreview.com
  13. 13. 13 Will Your Life Be Different?
  14. 14. 14 Autonomous Cars Will Give You Back > 4 Years Of Your Life Average time equivalent Americans spend commuting 9days / year 4.3 years Average time a person will spend driving in their lifetime Distractify Average length of commute to work in the US The Economist: American Census Bureau 51minutes 15 days / year Average time equivalent Moms spend driving kids around UK Telegraph The Atlantic
  15. 15. 15 You Will Spend More Time Doing the Things You Love, Not Driving 7% 7% 8% 10% 21% 21% 26% Working Have you ever wanted to bill hours for your commute? This dream could be reality when your car becomes a mobile office. Texting / Talking with Friends Technology, both new and current, will adapt to social travels. Other These respondents listed activities such as ‘watch the road’ or ‘enjoy the scenery.’ Playing Games Stuck in traffic? Fire up your car’s gaming center to play chess or Words With Friends against your car. Watching Movies Cars of the future will undoubtedly be entertainment hubs, featuring built in tablets and TVs Sleeping Some commuters might consider planning their lives to get a full 8 hours of sleep during their commutes Reading Imagine a smart car that recommends articles or stories based on the expected travel time. What Americans Say They Intend to Do in their Autonomous Cars source: carinsurance.com
  16. 16. 16 Your Car Will Be The Hub Of Your Personal Smart Grid The development of autonomous cars is happening in parallel to the clean energy movement. We will lose the driver, but we will gain in energy. Morgan Stanley predicts that autonomous cars will save the United States $1.3 trillion annually by lowering fuel consumption. Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) systems conceptualize how smart cars could be incorporated into the extended power grid. Cars of the future will share, store and produce our energy. The Wall Street Journal Source: Business Insider
  17. 17. 17 You Will Rotate Between Multiple Mobility Machines Automakers like Mercedes-Benz are realizing that they don’t just build vehicles but rather enable mobility, so they are moving into new modes of transportation. People will share multiple specialized vehicles for varying uses. Utility of design will increase.
  18. 18. 18 You Will Share Your Car(s) By 2021, Ann Arbor could become the first American city with a shared fleet of networked, driverless Cars. Autonomous cars will be introduced into society through existing fleets: car shares, taxis, rentals and corporate (e.g., delivery businesses like FedEx, Pizza Hut). Shared driverless cars could meet all of Singapore’s driving needs 300k - MIT Research
  19. 19. 19 You Will Build Your Car From the Ground Up The future aesthetics and customization of the autonomous car vehicle body will further accelerate with wide-spread adoption of the skateboard chassis and drive-by-wire system. The skateboard chassis will house all major car components: propulsion, motors, suspension, batteries and the drive-by-wire system which controls all vehicle movements electronically. The vehicle body essentially sits on top of it.
  20. 20. 20 You Will Individualize Your Car Car bodies will be hyper-customized as they will be 3D printed and fitted atop powertrains. Every car on the road can and will look different.
  21. 21. 21 Your Car Will Be Bundled With Your House Autos can be designed to match the environment or architecture. Architectural firms will start to design the auto body for a seamless look. Driverless cars will “dock” in the home.
  22. 22. 22 You Will Look Out the Windows and Learn Expect windows and surfaces to become touchscreens, allowing passengers to interact with surroundings using hand gestures and augmented reality projections. Transportation will play a big role in education and “MOOCCs” (massive online open car courses).
  23. 23. 23 You Will Entertain in Your Car Image Source: Copenhagen Institute of Interaction Design] The “driver” role will evolve into a “host” role. Cars will become the new “3rd Place,” replacing cafes and retail. Car parties will supplant car pools. Auto interiors will look more like rooms than cockpits. Passengers will sit wherever they like and entirely new industries like “Auto Decor” will emerge.
  24. 24. 24 You Will Cook in Your Car Food services, grocers, QSRs, food brands and kitchen appliances will be designed for in-car use since time on the road will be spent eating and cooking. The car could literally pick up fresh ingredients from the source as the meal is being prepared, giving “farm-to-fork” a new meaning.
  25. 25. 25 And Your Car Will be Cooking In-car entertainment will be expanded. Privacy and constant mobility will make autonomous cars the ideal space for illicit activities. Expect new, car-based business models in the sex, drug and alcohol industries. Alas, declining birthrates may reverse as busy professionals use newfound time to go on “driverless dates.”
  26. 26. 26 You Will Be More Productive Image Source: Copenhagen Institute of Interaction Design] The autonomous vehicle will increase productivity, especially for people who work from the road (e.g., real estate, sales). Driverless autos will feature high-speed bandwidth and 2-way live streaming. The boost in productivity will increase GDP and enable many businesses to adopt 4- day work weeks. Boost in annual productivity from driverless cars $422Billion Business Insider
  27. 27. 27 You Will Live Longer and Healthier Automobile accidents are the leading cause of death amongst young people (ages 15-29) and the #2 cause of death worldwide. In addition to reducing deaths from crashes, driverless cars will reduce cancer as they decrease anxiety and driving stress. Happiness and well-being correlate to the length of time spent commuting in traffic. People die in road crashes annually 1.3Million People injured daily in crashes from distracted driving Popular Science 1,060 safer than human- driven cars 10x Elon Musk Driverless cars are Association for Safe International Road Travel Source: Association for Safe International Road Travel
  28. 28. 28 You Will be Independent Longer Autonomous cars will offer the elderly independence from caregivers. They will give the aging population a better quality of life, as well as help them to participate in the workforce longer. Older adults injured in auto accidents daily in the US 500 cdc.gov
  29. 29. 29 Your Kids Will be More Independent Autonomous cars will likely feature “kid mode” for short distances, with limited navigation controls. Gen Z will grow up adapted to longer trips and distances. Helicopter parents will be replaced by “Autonomous Parents” who give their kids independence and encourage exploration. Of the global population is below the age of 15 Nearly 26% Index Mundi
  30. 30. 30 We Will See Societal Bifurcation “Manual” vs. “auto” will replace the “stick” vs. “automatic” debate. While it’s expected that autonomous cars will not cost much more, driving purists/enthusiasts will buck the trend. They will flaunt their manual driving and taunt the orderliness of the machines. Roof sensors on driverless cars will replace the hood ornament’s prestige. Cost that autonomy will add to the sticker price of a car in 2025 Kurtzweil $7k
  31. 31. 31 We Will See Reverse Urbanization Source: US Census Global urban-dwelling population United Nations 3.5Billion Increase in America’s urban population, 2000-2010 12% Perceptions of distance will change as driverless vehicles will make travel more bearable, if not enjoyable. Many will view the ease of travel as an invitation to move out of urban centers. We can expect suburban areas to sprawl out from cities, and rural communities to thrive. US Census Bureau
  32. 32. 32 We Will Have Fewer Premature Births... Premature births are linked to auto air pollution; a Columbia University study found a comparatively sharp drop in premature births around EZPass toll booths, which encourage smoother traffic flows and lower emissions. Roughly 50% of premature births involve cesarean sections, recently linked to a baby’s microbial health, affecting overall health. Rise in premature births in the US over past 25 years Healthday 36% News-Medical
  33. 33. 33 ...But More Substance Abuse When the designated driver is a car the world’s partiers party harder. Alcohol and drug sales will likely increase as they can be consumed in the privacy of a moving vehicle. Without a “reason” to stay sober (i.e., DUI conviction), the legal drinking age will also likely drop. Increase in DUI deaths in the US over the past year +3% National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
  34. 34. There will be less need for road signage, and yet we will be able to travel at higher speeds. Smoother rides will make it possible for people to do delicate jobs within their car (e.g., surgery, artwork). Cars will offer different experiences: “get there fast” or “take the scenic route.” Roads will have more wear-and-tear requiring more maintenance overall. 34 We Will Have Better Maintained Roads and New Routes
  35. 35. If getting to and from places is more seamless and enjoyable, then why fly or bother with trains? Mass transit will be threatened. In addition, people will take up weekend homes that are 3-6 hours outside of major urban areas and will sleep overnight in their vehicles. Night road traffic will increase. 35 We Will See Property Values Rebound 3-6 Hours Outside Cities
  36. 36. 36 We Will See a Surge in 3D Printed Organs Given that autonomous cars can dramatically decrease the number of traffic accidents, one can expect the availability of organ donations to drop. This in turn will likely fuel advances in 3D printed biomaterial research. Or, organs (e.g., heart, liver, kidney) will be “grown in a petri dish.” People receive organ transplants daily in the US OrganDonor.gov 79
  37. 37. 37 There are millions of vital people living with disabilities or health problems who find driving too challenging. Autonomous cars will enable people with physical and mental challenges to participate more fully in society. We Will Have a More Inclusive Society Legally blind adults living in America National Federation of the Blind 6.6million Adults live with epilepsy worldwide World Health Organization 50million
  38. 38. The driver’s license is currently the de facto form of identification in an increasingly security-minded culture. The need for driver’s licenses will drop along with driving skills. The obsolescence of the driver’s license will jumpstart the widespread use of other forms of identification, such as biometrics and chip implants. 38 We Will Have New Forms of ID
  39. 39. 39 We Will Enjoy More Public Spaces In the future there will be no need for parking lots or parking garages in urban areas. Autonomous cars will be constantly in motion, able to park in extremely tight spaces or drive themselves outside of city limits to park. This will allow for the repurposing of valuable land, ideally for parks and event spaces. Trees could thrive on just 1% of our paved areas absorbing 1.2b metric tons of carbon dioxide 273million Sources: National Atlas, Grist, FWR, EPA
  40. 40. 40 We Will Have Internet Everywhere Roads for driverless cars must be built on information highways since autonomous cars rely on networked data. In order for driverless cars to take off there will need to be ubiquitous hi-speed wireless broadband access. A race towards Internet everywhere is underway. Of the US does not have broadband internet Pew Internet 20%
  41. 41. 41 Towns that rely on speed traps and parking ticket quotas will experience budget shortfalls, so they will be forced to seek new forms of revenue. This will not only be a catalyst for innovation but will make constituents less resentful of local government. We Will Enjoy More Efficient Government Annual revenue generated in the US from parking tickets and speeding citations Trapster.com $6Billion
  42. 42. Driverless cars will reduce the number of auto accidents and insurance claims, which will in turn force the insurance industry to explore new models. Many other businesses will be disrupted by driverless vehicles including: taxis, public transportation, logistics, cargo, delivery services, gas stations, parking lots and of course auto manufacturing. 42 We Will Pay Less (or Nothing) for Insurance Annual cost to Americans from traffic accidents $871Billion BBC
  43. 43. 43 Business Implications of Autonomous Cars Image Source: phantasrail.co.uk
  44. 44. 44 10 Ways Marketing Will be Totally Transformed 1. Out-of-home advertising and billboards will respond and customize to passersby 2. Rush-hour/drive-time radio will adapt or die 3. Entertainment (and ads) will need to be road-ready 4. Content will be designed for Virtual Reality car windows 5. New retail destinations will pop up in unusual, out of the way locations 6. Retail on wheels will explode 7. Products will be introduced just for in-car use (cooking, entertaining, learning, working, gaming, etc.) 8. Businesses will be launched for the hiding and control of geolocation data 9. Social networks will evolve into networks of social roads 10. Brands will sponsor routes and “curated road experiences”
  45. 45. 45 10 Jobs of the Future Created by Autonomous Cars 1. Ethical Programmer — Will the car be programmed to protect the passenger, civilians, or the greatest good? 2. Parking Lot Ranger — If parking lots are repurposed as park spaces these new public spaces will need attending and policing. 3. Liability Data Investigator — Who is at fault in an autonomous accident? The data will know and special investigators will perform the data forensics. 4. Pave & Paint Pro — Driverless cars rely on high quality roads and clear road markings, so road maintenance will be an important, highly-paid job. 5. 3D Printer Auto Stylist — People will need assistance with CAD, designing their custom cars and decorating their interiors. 6. Convoy Party Planner — Specialist planners will be sought to assist with auto entertaining and long-haul group travel. 7. Anti-Hacking Mechanic — A new field of mechanics will emerge to safeguard data and privacy and thwart auto hacking, which could be deadly. 8. Personal Vehicle Trainer — As obesity rises, the auto becomes a place for workouts. Trainers will travel with clients to exercise on-the-go. 9. Sensor Technician — All the auto’s sensors will need regular tune-ups and calibrations handled by sensor specialists. 10. OS Therapist — When the auto is intelligent, its OS may suffer emotionally, requiring therapy from an AI auto shrink.
  46. 46. 46 Autonomous Car Topics We’re Tracking… Economic Disparity Auto Insurance Liability Microsoft TECHNOLOGY ISSUES BUSINESS GPS MEDIA & CULTURE 3D Printing Auto Bodies CA, NV, MI, FL - Driverless States Mobileye 3D Mapping Ann Arbor- Driverless Town Telematics Bandwidth (5G & WiFi) Radar & Lidar Sensors Camera & Light Fuel Cells Singapore - Driverless Regulation Bandwidth Deficit Russia- Driverless Regulation UK- Driverless Regulation FCC (Tom Wheeler) Cruise Processing Google X Autonomous Apple & Tesla? EU - Driverless Regulation Intel Data Privacy Elon Musk- Driverless Tesla Beyond Apollo 2017 Avatar 2 2016 Prometheus 2 2016 Resilient 2016 Space Command Redemption 2016 The Martian 2015 Allegiant 2016 X-Men: Apocalypse 2016 Last Voyage of Demeter 2016 Maze Runner 2015 Autonomous Car Solar Lost Income from Driving/ Parking Tickets Beacons Qualcomm DMV NHTSA
  47. 47. Want to Apply Autonomous Car Insights to Your Business? We will continue to track Autonomous Cars, adding a global perspective from our Scout Network (now in 11 countries) combined with international social listening. Stay tuned. Reach out to us if you want to explore how to apply these learnings — and future Autonomous Car insights — to your business. We can package insights in a variety of formats, such as: • Customized “Autonomous World” reports, designed for sharing and educating • Immersive get-smart-fast-on-the-future-of-Driverless-Cars workshops   • Autonomous insights-to-applied-marketing roundtable discussions   • Bi-weekly “Autonomous Trend Pulses” — shareable newsletters on shifting culture and marketing opportunities 47
  48. 48. 48 SOCIAL AGENCY PR AGENCY DIGITAL AGENCY SEARCH AGENCY EVENT MARKETING AGENCY ADVERTISING AGENCY agency of relevance - Social & Cultural Listening - Competitive Intelligence & War Gaming - Segment Analysis & Tracking - Topic Deep Dives - Event Tracking - Issue Monitoring - Real-time Burst Identification - Channel Analysis - Content & Influencer Strategy - Editorial & Cultural Calendars - Macro Trend Identification & Quantification - Projecting Segments into the Future (Consumers of the Future) - Product, Service & Packaging Development - Business Model Design & Reimagination - Business Context Analysis - Futurism - Whitespace Identification - Brand/Partner & Acquisition Recommendations - Pre-Planned (70/30) Content Production - Online and Offline - Real-Time Content Production - Real-Time Commerce - Social Media Content (short and long form) - posts, tweets, vines, videos, blogs, etc. - Community Management - Influencer Outreach - Channel Optimization & Fan Base Development - Analytics & Measurement - Real-Time Media Amplification cultural strategy at the core cultural intelligence innovation content & distribution powered by BRAND
  49. 49. Sign up on our website to receive updates and future reports: www.sparksandhoney.com For more information: 212.894.5100 info@sparksandhoney.com @sparksandhoney bigthink.com/blogs/amped facebook.com/sparksandhoney

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