Presentation by Jeremy Leggett, 15 June 2015

1. Solar
PV’s
pivotal
role
in
the
great
global
energy
transi5on
Dr
Jeremy
Legge*

2. Drama,c
changes
are
beginning
to
sweep
global
energy
markets

3. Insurgency
cost
down
Incumbency
cost
up
Three
emerging
megatrends
are
par5cularly
important
Carbon
ac,on

4.
the energy
of nations
RISK BLINDNESS AND THE ROAD TO RENAISSANCE
JEREMY LEGGETT
Jan 2004 – May 2013 May 2013 – Dec 2015
….as
I
see
it
in
my
front-­‐line
eyewitness
chronicles

5. 0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1850
1870
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
Percentage
of
U.S.
Energy
Consumption
50
years
Wood
Coal
Hydro
Oil
Natural
Gas
Renewables
75%
50
years
1920
75%
2020
Nuclear
50
years
X
%?
Source:
S
Dolezalek
System
change
in
energy
is
nothing
new

6. 1913
1900
Spot
the
car
Spot
the
horse
….and
disrup5on
can
happen
very
fast

7. ….not
to
men,on
up
to
70%
cuts
by
2050,
35
years
from
now
White
House
June
2015
The
industrialised
na5ons
have
declared
the
endgame
on

8. Insurgency
cost
down
Incumbency
cost
up
Three
emerging
megatrends
Carbon
ac,on

9.
Source:
Alliance
Bernstein,
April
2014
Solar
PV
average
in
2006
Fossil
fuel
versus
solar:
price
35
years

10.
The
“Terrordome”
Alliance
Bernstein,
14
April
2014
2006
Fossil
fuel
versus
solar:
price

11. Apple
global
ad
campaign
April
2014
Big
players
are
smelling
the
coffee

12. Why
would
Apple
want
“every
company
to
copy”
boring
and
design-­‐lite
solar
farms?
Apple
Wants
to
Start
Producing
Cars
as
Soon
as
2020
18
Feb
2015

13. Slough, UK
UBS
Urges
Investors
to
Join
Solar
Revolu,on
Guardian,
27
August
2014
The
power
of
solar
and
storage
SSE
project
with
Solarcentury
rooTiles
2010

14. Source:ce:
The
power
of
solar
and
storage
€
kWh
EU
EV
sales
EU
fleet
Lithium
baWery
costs
Solar
PV
roof
+
baWery
+
EV
price
Payback,
years
ROI
ROI
27
August
2014
“This
will
change
the
face
of
energy
markets”

15.
9
April
2014
Unlikely
players
are
paying
very
close
a*en,on

16. 20
August
2014
….er,
run
that
past
me
again?

17. The
first
U-­‐turn
has
happened
in
the
u5lity
sector.
How
long
before
the
first
oil
&
gas
company?

18. Source:
Bloomberg
NEF
The
rise
and
rise
of
renewables
GW
per
year
electricity
genera5on
addi5ons

19. May
1
2015
Launch
of
Tesla
Energy
Week
1:
$800
million
of
indica,ve
orders

20.
And
as
for
energy
efficiency….
The
best
way
to
shrink
the
mountain
of
transi,on….
….and
the
best
way
to
create
energy
jobs

21. Insurgency
cost
down
Incumbency
cost
up
Three
emerging
megatrends
Carbon
ac,on

22. Source:
Douglas
Westwood,
from
Bloomberg
Selected
listed
interna5onal
oil
companies’
upstream
capex
and
crude-­‐oil
produc5on
BG,
BP,
COP,
CVX,
ENI,
OXY,
PBR,
RDS,
STO,
TOT,
XOM
Capex
versus
oil
produc5on

23. Capex
trials
&
tribula5ons
Kashagan
$50
bn
&
coun,ng
Shell
in
the
Arc,c:
$5
bn
&
floundering
Petrobras
&
the
sub-­‐salt:
$221
bn
over
5
years
pleeeeease
Canada
&
the
tar
sands:
50
year
financing?
Really?

24. Break-­‐even
oil
price:
assessing
danger
of
stranding
May
2014
$1.1
trillion
capex
at
risk
by
2025
>$95
2
degree
budget

25. “A
trillion
dollars
of
zombie
investments”
in
planned
future
oil
projects
above
$70
December
2014

26. Shale
Drillers
Feast
on
Junk
Debt
to
Stay
on
Treadmill
Apr
30
2014
Is
the
U.S.
Shale
Boom
Going
Bust?
Apr
22
2014

27. 1
December
2014
It
gets
worse….
…..an
enquiry
now
being
emulated
by
the
G-­‐20,
as
of
April
2015

28. Coal
entering
structural
decline?

29. Insurgency
cost
down
Incumbency
cost
up
Three
emerging
megatrends
Carbon
ac,on

30. Copenhagen,
Dec
2009
Our
leaders
may
have
failed
in
2009,
but…..

31. c.
100
na,ons
for
zero
net
carbon
by
2050
66%
of
emissions
are
down
to
90
companies
US
&
China
envoys
work
together
at
the
Lima
climate
summit,
December
2014
…..circumstances
are
different
now
And:

32. ….and
as
for
Saudi
Arabia,
oil
consump(on
is
a
vital
factor

33. Figure 1: Saudi Arabia’s oil balance on a business-as-usual trajectory
Source: Chatham House research 2010. See Appendix 1 for assumptions and key sources.
NGL = natural gas liquids
2 See Appendix 1 for our definition of ‘apparent consumption’. This is the figure given in BP (2011). It includes natural gas liquids (NGLs), international
aviation fuel and marine bunker fuel. It differs from the figure given by Saudi Aramco, which would suggest around one-fifth of oil production is consumed
domestically.
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2045
mb/d
Oil consumption
Saudi crude and NGLproduction
Oil exports
2040
Consump,on
Exports
Saudi
crude
and
NGL
produc,on
2025
2030
….and
the
proposed
solu,on?
Saudi
Arabia:
not
a
drop
to
export
by
before
2030
on
current
trends

34.
“We
need
to
help
Saudi
Arabia
become
the
Saudi
Arabia
of
solar.”
A
US
intelligence
view
Source:
Wikileaks

35. Solarcentury experience helping to build “the Terrordome”
Early
demos:
UK’s
first
solar
electric
and
solar
hybrid
rooves

36. UK’s
first
solar
electric
tower
facade

37. UK’s first solar street: S Yorkshire HA

38. Early
demos:
niche
applica,ons
working
with
architects

39. Flat
roof
•
5,220
modules
•
35
km
string
cable
•
2.6
t
central
inverter
•
EPC
contract
signed
13/10/09
•
connec,on
of
system
on
31/12/09
…..the
en5re
process
took
10
weeks
Moving
towards
scale:
large
commercial
rooves

40. Moving
towards
scale:
5MW
above
a
working
auto
factory

41. Moving
towards
scale:
installing
above
working
railway
&
river

42.
EnergyRoof
for
pitched
roofs
Large
numbers:
barns

44. Scale:
solar
farms
up
to
50
MW

45. Innova,on:
while
manufacturers
innovate
at
the
cell
level…..

46. ….we
innovate
at
the
balance
of
systems
level,
in
mul,ple
ways

47. Result:
a
genera,on
of
Solar
PV
,les
and
slates

48. UK’s first solar street: S Yorkshire HA
Result:
a
genera,on
of
solar
PV
,les
and
slates

49. Result:
a
new
BIPV
megaslate
cost-­‐
compe,,ve
with
modules

50. A
brand
family
with
a
purpose
Profits
for
a
purpose:
5%
dona,on
to
SolarAid

51. 10
million
people
reached
900
local
jobs
created
890,000
kg
CO2
averted*
£230
million
in
savings*
2
billion
homework
hours
created*
*over
three
years
SolarAid’s
social
enterprise,
SunnyMoney
has
sold
’
1.6
million
solar
lights
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
To
Apr
2015
Uganda
Malawi
Zambia
Kenya
Tanzania
Pla5num
GIIRS
Ra5ng
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2006
2008
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Cumula5ve
light
sales

52. Peaceful
solar
revolu,on
and
educa,on:
a
microcosm
of
the
solar-­‐led
renaissance
that
is
within
our
grasp.

53. Thank
you
.jeremy.legge*@solarcentury.com
www.jeremylegge*.net