Weber MSU, CIRAD 2010

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Weber MSU, CIRAD 2010

  1. 1. Towards Improved Decision Making for   Different Types of Farmers and Other  Different Types of Farmers and Other Sector Stakeholders:  Reflections on Agricultural Market Information  R fl ti A i lt l M k t I f ti Developments and Challenges in Zambia M.T. Weber ACF/FSRP and Michigan State University Presented at “Workshop on Agricultural Market Information Workshop Systems in Africa: Renewal and Impact” Montpellier, France 29-31 March, , 2010
  2. 2. Outline of Presentation Outline of Presentation 1. Identify sources of agriculture/food price  1 Identify sources of agriculture/food price information and use in Zambia. 2. Identify and discuss the implications of  2 Identify and discuss the implications of differences among:  ‐ small/medium farmers =0 20 ha & customary land small/medium farmers =0‐20 ha & customary land (1.5 million small & medium‐scale farmers  ‐ commercial farmers = >20 ha and free hold title commercial farmers = >20 ha and free‐hold title (1400 commercial farms– less than 500 farm>500 ha 3. Discuss the importance of the asking the question  3 Di th i t f th ki th ti of what information for whom?
  3. 3. Zambian Agricultural Market  Information Sources • ZNFU SMS Trade Bid (CAMIS Cambodia) • ZAMACE (Commodity Exchange) • CSO retail prices • AMIC  Ag Market Information Center AMIC – Ag Market Information Center • FEWs Net Markets (Use of CSO price data)
  4. 4. Empirical Data on Smallholders in Zambia – Nation Wide Random Surveys Map of Central Statistical Office Statistical Enumeration Areas (SEAs) Sampled in the CSO/MACO/FSRP Post Harvest and Supplemental Surveys in 2001, 2004 and 2008 by Zambia’s Agro-Ecological Zones
  5. 5. % of Small/Medium‐Scale Farmers  Growing Crops G i C Attributes Att ib t Crop C 1999/00 2002/03 2006/07 trend t d Maize 80 80 84 Cassava 38 39 34 %  HH  Groundnuts G d 36 42 38 Growing Sweet  28 19 13 potatoes Cotton 6 10 10
  6. 6. Under Appreciated Facts About Small &  Medium‐Scale Farmers  M di S l F Most rural farm households are buyers of maize  (or net buyers) ‐‐‐28 % of smallholders are net maize sellers 28 % of smallholders are net mai e sellers ‐‐‐49 % of smallholders are net supplemental buyers of  maize (11 % did not produce any maize);  ‐‐‐23 % produced but did not sell nor buy maize Highly concentrated patterns of surplus  generation  ‐ 2% of farm households account for  generation 2% of farm households account for 50% of marketed maize surplus Maize market position is highly associated with  Maize market position is highly associated with area cropped and household assets
  7. 7. How to Help ‐ Which Farmers & What  Information Helps Solve Their Problems? I f i H l S l Th i P bl ? 2500.00 2.50 Mea cropped area(Ha) 2000.00 2.00 1500.00 acha 1.50 d 000 Kwa 1000.00 1.00 500.00 an 00 .00 .50 -500.00 .00 Net sellers Net buyers Net buyers with Not in market (28.0%) (28 0%) with maize no maize (23.4%) (23 4%) production production (37.9%) (10.7%) Maize Farmer Category Net sales (not in 000 Kwacha) Gross value of maize production Value of assets Cultivated land area 2008 (07/08 Crop Marketing Season)
  8. 8. Disparities in Livelihoods Within  Smallholder Agriculture, Zambia N= Farm  Asset  Gr. Rev.,  Gr. Rev.,  Total hh  size  values maize sales crop sales gross  (ha) (US$) (US$) (US$) income  (US$) $ Top 50% of  small/medium     30,043 7.2 3,703 3,199 3,354 7,624 maize sales (2%) Rest of maize  sellers 388,795 1.9 257 172 252 1,272 ( %) (26%) Households  not selling  1,083,395 1.1 129 0 57 756 maize (72%) Source: CSO Supplemental surveys, 2008
  9. 9. Village Leader Indication of Maize Grain Shortages in Their Areas When HHs Want To Buy Nor LUA N CB Ce East Ls Sout Wes Natio ther W ntr ern ak hern tern nal n al a Number of Village 179 119 67 41 61 238 27 163 158 1,053 Leaders Interviewed % of Leaders saying there are months of year when hhs in 93 87 97 85 88 97 96 94 95 93 % village who want to buy maize but there is none available Most Common Month 12 1 11 10 12 1 12 12 10 12 2nd Month 1 2 12 11 1 2 1 1 11 1 3rd Month 2 3 1 12 2 3 2 2 12 2
  10. 10. Zambia ‐ Maize Situation & Market Information for  2007/2008 Marketing Year Type of  Number of  Production Sales Mean Farm‐ Market Information Needs? Farmer Farmers Metric tons Metric tons Level Storage  Home Use Commercial 1400 218,728 174,164 (80 %) Selling Prices, Buyers, Exports S/M –Sellers (28 %) 418,802 1,319,774 762,093 (58%) 1.3 mt Selling Prices, Buyers, Storage  [30,150] [381,046 Information S/M – Buyers / (38 %) 576,694 ( ) 411,391 0 (0 %) ( ) 1.0 mt Stocks, Buying Prices, Storage  Information, Wage Information,   Prices non‐farm goods/services S/M –Buyer  (11%) 159,507 0 0 (0 %) 0 Buying Prices, Wage  –No  N information, Prices Non‐Farm  i f ti Pi N F Production goods/services S/M ‐ (29 %) 347,194 229,527 0 (0 %) .8 mt Good years – Selling Price Autarkic Bad Years – Buying Price Storage Small/Med  1,502,197 1,960,692 762,093 (58 %) .9 mt Tot.  Other Important Stakeholders to also Consider: Other Important Stakeholders to also Consider: Small Trader/Assembly,  Trader/Wholesale,  Trader/Importer/Exporter,   Millers/Feed Manufacture,  FRA Security Stock
  11. 11. Discussion and Brainstorming • Many tools are becoming available for farmers with volumes to  sell – this needs to continue & link to regional trade options • In most years there seems to be too much maize leaving local  areas – what information might help improve local stocks? • In some years an increased number of smallholders may have In some years an increased number of smallholders may have  small quantities to sell.  How to serve them? • In some years many more hhs may need to buy. What  information helps inform this?  Crop forecast & buying forecast? • A majority of hhs need to increase production, first for home  consumption  & to  sell. What information helps?   consumption & to sell What information helps? • Improved on‐farm storage for consumption and possible selling  later seems to have potential – what to do to help with  information on this front?
  12. 12. Zikomo Kwambili,  Natotela sana,  L'i tumezi ahulu, Twalumba kapati,  Thanks to Zambian smallholders, traders,  consumers and to policy makers for  opportunities to obtain/share information and  ideas
  13. 13. Other Slides for Background
  14. 14. Maize Productivity Patterns &Trends  Summary  Increases in maize production have come largely from  p g y area expansion not yield improvements Maize yield potential not being achieved even in the era of  FSP large portion of smallholder with declining maize yield over  03/04 to 07/08  By 2007/08 only 35 % of smallholders have become  fertiliser users Yield improvements among fertiliser users is greatest  Yi ld i f ili i among smaller land holding categories Generally, maize yield strongly associated with rainfall  Generally maize yield strongly associated with rainfall both amount and timing
  15. 15. Potential Market:    Urban Food Consumption Patterns U b F dC ti P tt Overall the combined importance of meat,  eggs, fish & dairy has surpassed the role of  eggs fish & dairy has surpassed the role of cereals/staples.   For poorest, cereals still dominate F t l till d i t Vegetables important group, especially for  poorest Poultry & eggs have become very important  & dominate the meats group outside Lusaka
  16. 16. Potential Market:    Urban Food Consumption Patterns Among staples, maize still dominates for lower income consumers, but wheat has become very important for all urban consumers. In Lusaka, wheat products dominate among staples except for the lowest expenditure groups Cassava important in Mansa & Kasama, esp. among low expenditure quintile of consumers Poultry & eggs have become very important & dominate the meats group outside Lusaka
  17. 17. Urban Food Budget Shares For Key Products Food Item ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐% expenditure share ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ Lusaka Kitwe Mansa Kasama Cereals & Staples 24.1 27.4 28.0 27.2 Dairy items Dairy items 5.2 52 3.6 36 1.7 17 2.0 20 Meat & eggs 16.8 15.6 12.7 14.5 Fish 7.6 8.4 12.4 12.5 Vegetables 13.7 15.0 11.4 14.2 Fruits 3.6 4 3.7 4.0 Other Foods Other Foods 16.4 16 4 17.1 17 1 16.9 16 9 18.4 18 4 Tobacco & alcohol 5.3 4.6 6.3 4.0 Food away from home 7.3 4.3 6.9 3.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
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