Safe Operating Space For Humanity - HEB

דר ' שחר דולב – 2010 חלק מהזכויות שמורות מסמך זה מוגן ברישיון של Creative Commons ייחוס-שימוש לא מסחרי, שיתוף זהה, 2.5, ישראל העמותה הישראלית לכלכלה בת - קיימא

Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the safe operating space for humanity in the Anthropocene ( Nature , 461 : 472 – 475, Sept 24 - 2009) Johan Rockström, Will Steffen, Kevin Noone, Åsa Persson, F. Stuart Chapin, Eric F. Lambin, Timothy M. Lenton, Marten Scheffer, Carl Folke, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Björn Nykvist, Cynthia A. de Wit, Terry Hughes, Sander van der Leeuw, Henning Rodhe, Sverker Sörlin, Peter K. Snyder, Robert Costanza, Uno Svedin, Malin Falkenmark, Louise Karlberg, Robert W. Corell, Victoria J. Fabry, James Hansen, Brian Walker, Diana Liverman, Katherine Richardson, Paul Crutzen, Jonathan A. Foley

Humanity’s period of grace – the last 10000 years Aborigines arrive in Australia Beginning of agriculture Great European civilisations: Greek, Roman Source: GRIP ice core data (Greenland) and S. Oppenheimer, ”Out of Eden”, 2004 First migration of fully modern humans out of Africa Migrations of fully modern humans from South Asia to Europe

Humanity in the Anthropocene Steffen, W., et al. 2004 Kaufman, Darrell S., et al. 2009. Recent Warming Reverses Long-Term Arctic Cooling. Science , September 4, 2009

1 2 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],3 state shift ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],coral dominance clear water grassland 4 algal dominance turbid water shrub-bushland Valuable Ecosystem Services Loss of ecosystem services (Desirable) (Undesirable)

אך היציבות של המערכת הגלובלית

אינה מובטחת לנו עוד

From: ” Limits to growth” ” Carrying capacity” ” Guardrails” ” Tipping Elements” To: ” Planetary Boundaries”

PB concept rests on three branches of Scientific inquiry ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Planetary Boundaries concept

שני סוגים שונים של גבולות פעולה בטוחים מעבר רציף , אין גבול ברור ערך סף עם גבול ברור ( גם אם לא ידוע )

How to set a planetary boundary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

How to set PB criteria ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Climate Change Ocean acidification Ozone depletion Global Freshwater Use Rate of Biodiversity Loss Biogeochemical loading: Global N & P Cycles Atmospheric Aerosol Loading Land System Change Chemical Pollution Planetary Boundaries

Climate Change < 350 ppm CO 2 < 1W m 2 (350 – 500 ppm CO 2 ; 1-1.5 W m 2 ) Ocean acidification Aragonite saturation ratio > 80 % above pre-industrial levels (> 80% - > 70 %) Ozone depletion < 5 % of Pre-Industrial 290 DU (5 - 10%) Global Freshwater Use <4000 km 3 /yr (4000 – 6000 km 3 /yr) Rate of Biodiversity Loss < 10 E/MSY (< 10 - < 1000 E/MSY) Biogeochemical loading: Global N & P Cycles Limit industrial fixation of N 2 to 35 Tg N yr -1 (25 % of natural fixation) (25%-35%) P < 10× natural weathering inflow to Oceans (10× – 100×) Atmospheric Aerosol Loading To be determined Land System Change ≤ 15 % of land under crops (15-20%) Chemical Pollution Plastics, Endocrine Desruptors, Nuclear Waste Emitted globally To be determined Planetary Boundaries

Nitrogen flow Agricultural land use Ocean acidity Freshwater consumption Phosphorus flow Climate Change Atmospheric aerosol load Chemical pollution Ozone depletion Biodiversity loss ? ? 50-60 70-80 Latest data 90-00 Pre- Ind. ? ? ? ?

מסקנות ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Rate of Biodiversity Loss Avoid large scale irreversible loss of functional diversity and ecological resilience ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Global Freshwater Use Avoid water induced environmental change at regional scale ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Climate Change what is required to avoid the crossing of critical thresholds that separate qualitatively different climate system states ,[object Object]

Ozone depletion Avoiding the risk of large impacts for humans and ecosystem from thinning of extra-polar ozone layer ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Atmospheric Aerosol Loading Avoid major influence on climate system and human health at regional to global scales ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Ocean acidification Challenge to marine biodiversity and ability of oceans to function as sink of CO 2 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Chemical Pollution Steer away from irreversible impacts on living organisms ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Land System Change Avoid unsustainable land system change predominantly from intensive agricultural use ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Biogeochemical flows: Human interference with global N cycle ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Biogeochemical flows: Human interference with global P cycle ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

[object Object],[object Object]

Safe Operating Space For Humanity - HEB

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