Commercial Project Management

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Starting a Pharmaceutical New Product Forecast

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Commercial Project Management

  1. 1. Managing New Product Forecasting Projects
  2. 2. <ul><li>Project Objective </li></ul><ul><li>Time Constraints </li></ul><ul><li>Costs – Internal and External </li></ul><ul><li>Resources </li></ul><ul><li>Quality/Risks </li></ul><ul><li>Communication </li></ul><ul><li>Deliverable </li></ul>
  3. 3. <ul><li>Early Project – Forecast Peak sales – Patient Based </li></ul><ul><li>Launch 5 years out – Yearly Patient Forecast to Patent expires </li></ul><ul><li>Launch 2 years out – Patient and Prescription Forecast </li></ul><ul><li>Launch 1 year out – Three year Monthly RX Forecast </li></ul>
  4. 6. <ul><li>Product Profile </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Efficacy, Safety, Side Effects, Dosing </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Promotion </li></ul><ul><li>Price </li></ul><ul><li>Competition </li></ul><ul><li>Market Dynamics </li></ul><ul><li>Uptake Curve </li></ul>
  5. 7. <ul><li>Market History </li></ul><ul><li>Analogs </li></ul><ul><li>Analyst Reports </li></ul><ul><li>Secondary Market Research </li></ul><ul><li>Forecast Simulator </li></ul><ul><li>Primary Market Research </li></ul><ul><li>Product Specific Simulator </li></ul><ul><li>Confirm Model with Actual Sales of Existing Products </li></ul>
  6. 8. <ul><li>Project Team agrees on the Product profile </li></ul><ul><li>May also have upside and downside profile </li></ul><ul><li>Market Assumptions </li></ul><ul><li>Environmental Assumptions </li></ul><ul><li>Buy-in from Upper Management on Forecast </li></ul>
  7. 9. <ul><li>Presentation that outlines how the model was developed, assumptions, resources, and risks. </li></ul><ul><li>Excel workbook with Forecast Model. </li></ul><ul><li>List of all assumptions for the product, market, and the environment. </li></ul><ul><li>Resources used to develop the forecast. </li></ul><ul><li>Rank order of key Risks and their impact on the forecast. </li></ul>

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