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Commercial Project Management

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Starting a Pharmaceutical New Product Forecast

Starting a Pharmaceutical New Product Forecast

Published in: Business, Technology
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  • 1. Managing New Product Forecasting Projects
  • 2.
    • Project Objective
    • Time Constraints
    • Costs – Internal and External
    • Resources
    • Quality/Risks
    • Communication
    • Deliverable
  • 3.
    • Early Project – Forecast Peak sales – Patient Based
    • Launch 5 years out – Yearly Patient Forecast to Patent expires
    • Launch 2 years out – Patient and Prescription Forecast
    • Launch 1 year out – Three year Monthly RX Forecast
  • 4.  
  • 5.  
  • 6.
    • Product Profile
      • Efficacy, Safety, Side Effects, Dosing
    • Promotion
    • Price
    • Competition
    • Market Dynamics
    • Uptake Curve
  • 7.
    • Market History
    • Analogs
    • Analyst Reports
    • Secondary Market Research
    • Forecast Simulator
    • Primary Market Research
    • Product Specific Simulator
    • Confirm Model with Actual Sales of Existing Products
  • 8.
    • Project Team agrees on the Product profile
    • May also have upside and downside profile
    • Market Assumptions
    • Environmental Assumptions
    • Buy-in from Upper Management on Forecast
  • 9.
    • Presentation that outlines how the model was developed, assumptions, resources, and risks.
    • Excel workbook with Forecast Model.
    • List of all assumptions for the product, market, and the environment.
    • Resources used to develop the forecast.
    • Rank order of key Risks and their impact on the forecast.

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