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Three Lenses on Poverty - Robert Humphries & Aaron Fallon (TAP)

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Three Lenses on Poverty - Robert Humphries & Aaron Fallon (TAP)

1. 1. THREE LENSES ON POVERTY Jobs, Education, Healthcare & the Distribution of Opportunity
2. 2. In the state of Virginia y = -36.4ln(x) + 333.9 R² = 0.270 -80.00 -60.00 -40.00 -20.00 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 \$0 \$5,000 \$10,000 \$15,000 \$20,000 Grwothofmedianincome 1969-1979 1969 Median Income Median incomes between all localities converged somewhat during the 1970's y = 0.000x - 18.13 R² = 0.210 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 GrowthofRealMedianIncome2000-2010 Median Income 2000 and then diverged again
3. 3. Poverty rates in Virginia localities closely correlate over time, and poverty has increased in most. y = 1.248x R² = 0.932 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 Areapovertyratein2003 Area poverty rate in 2011
4. 4. So where does this leave Roanoke? • Roanoke’s median income is expressed here in constant 2011 dollars. 35000 36000 37000 38000 39000 40000 41000 42000 43000 44000 45000 1969 CONST 1979 CONST 1989 CONST 2000 CONST 2011 CONST Roanoke's real median income declined during the 70's and again over the past decade.
5. 5. Poverty is a product. Impoverishment is a process.
6. 6. The Area’s occupation & job mix is decidedly tilted toward lower average wages 14% average less than \$10/hr 20 % average \$10.01- \$13/hr 12 % average \$13.01- \$15/hr 54 % average more than \$15.01 + / hr Average earnings in Roanoke MSA job mix 2012: out of 147,800 jobs ... 12.4% average less than \$10/ hr 15% average \$10.01-\$13 / hr 13% average \$13.01-\$15 / hr 59.6% average more than \$15.01 /hr Average earnings in Roanoke MSA job mix 2003: out of 136,1910 jobs (in 2012\$) ...
7. 7. Roanoke lags the state in educational attainment. no diploma 12% diploma 26% Some college/Assoc -iates [PERCENTAG E] Bachelor's+ 35% Virginia Educational Attainment 2011 persons 25 years and older no diploma 18% diploma 30% Some collage/Assoc -iates [PERCENTAG E] Bachelor's+ 22% Roanoke Educational Attainment 2011 persons 25 years and older
8. 8. The cost of health insurance \$11,194 29% \$27,263 71% 2003: Average Family Health Insurance Cost of \$11,194 is 29% of Roanoke's Median Income of \$38,458 (2011\$) \$14,822, 39% \$23,660 61% 2011: Average Family Health Insurance Cost of \$14,822 is 39% of Roanoke's Median Income of \$38,482
9. 9. Living Wages? “The second line on the sample budget leaves room for income from a second job, which many called an admission by the fast food giant that its workers can't live on its wages alone.” – CNN Money
10. 10. Education reflects in earnings… 20,913 27,905 32,060 40,049 51,219 17,221 21,520 33,036 42,325 52,045 No Diploma Diploma/GED only Some college/Associates Bachelor's Graduate Degree Real median earnings have fallen for those with only a diploma or less in Roanoke since 2005 (2011\$) Median Earnings in Roanoke 2005 (2011\$) Median Earnings in Roanoke 2011 - 17.6 % decrease - 22.9% decrease 3 % increase 5.7 % increase 1.6 % increase
11. 11. A locality’s income correlates more NEGATIVELY with the proportion of adults without a high school diploma than it does POSITIVELY with the proportion of adults with at least a Bachelor’s degree. y = -33690ln(x) + 145308 R² = 0.6292 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 MedianIncome2011 Percent of adults without a high-school diploma 2011 y = 1068.4x + 25201 R² = 0.5544 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 medianincome2011 Percent of adults with at least a Bachelor’s degree 2011
12. 12. White mobility out of poverty Rate African-American mobility out of poverty rate High School Diploma Bachelor’s Degree Mobility Rates equalize between races with Bachelor’s Degree Head Start effect: High- quality early childhood education improves chances of on time 3rd Grade achievement and thus finishing High School Project Discovery effect: improves chances of achieving Bachelor’s Mobility rate Child’s adult level of education On-Time Third Grade achievement
13. 13. Roanoke’s income structure is polarizing. y = - 0.213x R² = 0.986 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 PorportionofIncome Proportion of Population by Quintiles Income Polarization in Roanoke 2011 Quinitle Distribution Roanoke’s GINI coefficient is .45 which is 12% above the national average and the same as Mexico’s • In Roanoke, the poorest 20% of the population make 3.36% of Roanoke’s total income. The richest five percent accounts for 22.32% of its total residential income. Position in the Distribution Average Income Lowest Quintile \$ 8,641 Second Quintile \$24,020 Third Quintile \$38,641 Fourth Quintile \$58,834 Highest Quintile \$127,222 Top 5 Percent \$229,738
14. 14. Education Defeats Poverty & Promotes Racial Equity Head Start & Project Discovery help ALL CHILDREN increase their chances of Escaping Intergenerational Poverty